Bloomberg Surveillance 02/12/2024

>> THE FED HAS ALL THE EVIDENCETHEY WOULD NEED TO CUT OR STAY PUT. >> THE FED COULD CUT RATES FOUROR FIVE TIMES THIS YEAR. >> IT IS A QUESTION OF WHEN. >> AS YOU SEE FROM THE POLICYSPEAK, THERE IS NO HURRY FOR CUTS ANYTIME SOON. >> WE WILL TALK ABOUT THERESILIENCY OF THE U.S. ECONOMY. WE THINK THAT WILL CONTINUE TOPUSH OUT WHEN THE FED EASING CYCLE STARTS.

>> THIS IS BLOOMBERGSURVEILLANCE. JONATHAN: LET'S GET YOUR WEEK STARTEDLIVE FROM NEW YORK CITY. FOR OUR AUDIENCE WORLDWIDE,THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE ALONGSIDE LISA ABRAMOWICZ.THE S&P 500 UNCHANGED ON A FOUR DAY WINNING STREAK. FIVE WEEKS OF GAINS, RISING 14OF THE LAST 15 WEEKS. >> CROSSING THAT THRESHOLD WEWERE FLIRTING WITH, THIS RECORD HIGH. IT STILL IS DISPROPORTIONATELYWEIGHTED TO BIG TECH.

HAVE WE GOTTEN CONVICTION YETOR IS THIS SIMPLY THERE IS NOWHERE ELSE TO GO OTHER THANUP? JONATHAN: IF YOU WANT MORE EARNINGS,NVIDIA JUST AROUND THE CORNER. LOOKING AHEAD TO CPI, THEPRESIDENT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A PRE-SUPER BOWL INTERVIEW.HE DECLINED. SOME PEOPLE SUGGESTED THEREWERE NOT ENOUGH EYES ON THAT PARTICULAR CONVERSATION, SOTHEY PUT OUT A VIDEO ON SHRINK LAOIS AND FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN.ANNMARIE: PRESIDENT BIDEN IS STILL TRYINGTO WIN ON THE ECONOMY.

THIS VIDEO, HE IS TALKING ABOUTCOMPANIES PUTTING OUT LESS OF A GOOD FOR THE SAME PRICE.WE HAVE HEARD THE WHITE HOUSE COMPLAIN ABOUT THIS.WHY WOULD YOU REMIND VIEWERS THAT THERE ARE LESS OREOS ORLESS DORITOS? SECOND, WE HEARD FROM UNILEVERLAST WEEK, ONE OF THE COMPANIES THAT HAS SAID WE ARE DOINGSHRINK LAOIS IN. WE DO — SHRINKFLATION.IT IS REMINDING THE AMERICAN CONSUMER THAT THERE IS STILL ANUNDERLYING ISSUE OF INFLATION. LISA:IT RAISES THE QUESTION OF WHY.

HE DID NOT SPEAK IN A MORECANDID, OFF-THE-CUFF ADDRESS OTHER THAN THIS.HE SAID HE WANTED TO NOT DESTROY THE MOOD.WHAT DO YOU THINK SHRINK LAOIS AND IS? >> IT IS A DOWNER. >> IS THIS RESONATING WITHVOTERS? NO. 42% OF AMERICANS SAID THEY FELTTRUMP WOULD BE A BETTER STEWARD FOR THE ECONOMY. 31% CHOOSING BIDEN, 21% SAYINGTHEY TRUSTED NEITHER CANDIDATE.

>> WE HAVE SEEN THIS IN POLLAFTER POLL WHEN IT COMES TO THE ECONOMY AND HANDLING OFINFLATION. VOTERS THINK THEY WOULD BE INBETTER HANDS WITH THE FORMER PRESIDENT.THE TIMELINE MIGHT BE ON THIS PRESIDENT'S SIDE.PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO FEEL BETTER ABOUT THE ECONOMY.I AM NOT SURE IF THE PRESIDENT SHOULD HAVE REMINDED THEM THATSOME OF THEIR PACKAGING HAS LESS CRISPS. JONATHAN: LET'S TALK ABOUT FOREIGNPOLICY, NIKKI HALEY COMING UP A.

LITTLE LATER IN THE PROGRAM,ABOUT 90 MINUTES AWAY. WITH SOME CONTROVERSIAL REMARKSON NATO. >> WHEN IT COMES TO NATO, WEHAVE HEARD FROM TRUMP AGAIN TALKING ABOUT DELINQUENT NATOPARTNERS, POINTING THE FINGER AT EUROPE.FOR MANY, IT FEELS LIKE HE CROSSED THE LINE SAYING HEWOULD TELL RUSSIA TO GO IN ON PARTNERS THAT ARE NOT REACHINGDEFENSE TARGETS. I WAS STRUCK BY REACTION FROMTHE GOP. SOME MEMBERS FROM THE GOPTELLING THE NEW YORK TIMES THIS.

IS YOUR RESPONSIBLE.LINDSEY GRAHAM SAYING, I DO NOT KNOW WHY YOU'RE ASKING ME ABOUTTHIS. WE KNOW HOW HE FEELS ABOUT NATO. MARCO RUBIO SAYING THIS IS HOWHE TALKS AS A POLITICIAN. JONATHAN: EQUITY FUTURES TOTALLYUNCHANGED AND THE BOND MARKET YIELDS DOWN ABOUT A BASIS POINTOR SO. CRUDE NEGATIVE AND WE ALL HAVEAN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER DEAL, ANOTHER BIG DEAL. >> IT HAS JUST BEEN ANNOUNCEDTHAT DIAMONDBACK IS PLANNING TO.

MERGE. THIS SPEAKS TO THE CONSOLIDATION WE HAVE SEEN.YOU WONDER HOW MUCH THE ACQUISITIONS BY EXXON ANDCHEVRON HAVE ACCELERATED THIS TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION.WE EXPECT MORE THE SAME WITH MORE DETAILS COMING UP. JONATHAN: HAVE WE COMPLETED THECONSOLIDATION IN THAT PATCH? LISA:A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SAYING NO, BUT THE BIG DEALS HAVE BEENDONE. THE IDEA IS FIRST YOU HAVE UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IT WILLCOST TO GET IT OUT OF THE.

GROUND AND THEN EFFICIENCIES OFSCALE AT A TIME WHEN THERE WILL NOT BE THE SAME FOCUS ONGETTING MORE DRILLS INTO THE GROUND AND MORE PRODUCTION ONTHE OTHER SITE. JONATHAN:DIAMONDBACK SAYS THE DEAL WILL CLOSE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER.LOOK OUT FOR THAT. COMING UP, THE S&P 500 PUSHESPAST 5K. DONALD TRUMP TAKES AIM AT NATOAND THE LATEST READ ON U.S. INFLATION AROUND THE CORNER.CPI DROPS TOMORROW MORNING. WE BEGIN WITH OUR TOP STORYAFTER CLOSING ABOVE 5K FOR THE.

FIRST TIME EVER. HSBC IS CAUTIOUS ON THE ROADAHEAD. WE ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT FEDRATE EXPECTATIONS. THIS HAS NOT INFLICTED ANY PAINON THE S&P 500. THAT COULD CHANGE.CONTINUED RISES IN RATE EXPECTATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TOPROMPT A PULLBACK. YOU ARE CALLING IT THE REVERSEGOLDILOCKS TRADE. YOU HAVE SEEN RATES REPRICE.EQUITIES HAVE NOT BUDGED. WHY NOT?.

>> I GUESS THE RISE IN RATEEXPECTATIONS HAS NOT REALLY BEEN ENOUGH YET.THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHERE WE HAVE BEEN LAST YEAR WHEREEQUITIES WERE RISING SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL IN JUNEAND JULY. AT SOME POINT, THE RISE INYIELDS WAS TOO MUCH AND INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY WASPICKING UP, SO THE REASON THERE ARE NO MULTIPLES YET AND WHY WEARE NOT BOTHERED WITH LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED EARNINGSDELIVERY OUTSIDE THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN HAS BEEN THETREMENDOUS EARNINGS DELIVERY.

BUT FROM A BROADER MARKETPERSPECTIVE BECAUSE INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY IS STILL VERYBENIGN. AS LONG AS THAT CONTINUES, THATIS NOT GOING TO HURT EQUITIES AND OTHER RISK ASSETS YET. LISA:CAN YOU TALK ABOUT HOW YOUR POSITIONING IN A TIME WHERETHERE SEEMS TO BE THIS MOMENTUM? THERE IS AN INCREASE INDIVIDENDS. YOU ARE SEEING STRENGTHUNDERPINNING SOME OF THE RATE EXPECTATIONS, SO WHY WOULD YOUNOT BE SLIGHTLY BULLISH EVEN IF YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUTWHATEVER THE NEW ACRONYM IS?.

>> THERE CAN BE TOO MUCH OF AGOOD THING AND THAT IS THE CONCERN I HAVE NOW. BACK TO WHERE WE WERE LAST YEARWHEN THEY EXPECTED 0% GDP GROWTH AND IT ENDED UP BEING5%, WHERE EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS WERE NOWHERE NEAR WHAT THEACTUAL EARNINGS INTO BEING, I THING WE STARTED Q3 WITH $54 ONTHE S&P EARNINGS AND INTO THAT BEING $58.YOU SHOULD HAVE BEEN BULLISH, BUT THE PROBLEM WAS A LITTLEBIT OF OF AN OBJECT IN INFLATION THEN WAS ALREADYENOUGH TO SEND PAIN ACROSS THE.

ASSET CLASSES.I'M NOT ADVOCATING FOR THE NEXT SIX TO 12 MONTHS TO BE DIRE, BUT I DO THINK WITH SYSTEMATICINVESTORS, VOLATILITY TARGET STRATEGIES, ALL OF THAT ISELEVATED ALREADY AND YOU WANT TO BUY INTO THAT, BUT FOR NOWIT IS HIDING OUT IN SHORTER DURATION STUFF, SO OUT OF THEHIGHER STUFF. WAS AND EQUITIES COME IT IS THESHORT DIRECTION AND CYCLICAL MARKETS, THINGS LIKE JAPAN ANDLATIN AMERICA. WE STILL, GIVEN THE POSITIONINGIS LOW CONTRARY TO EQUITIES, WE.

STILL LIKE COMMODITIES HERE. >> THAT IS WHERE I WANTED TOGO, THIS IDEA THAT THE ONLY DIVERSIFIERS CAN BE FOUND INCOMMODITY MARKETS AT A TIME WHEN THAT TRADE SEEMS TO HAVEFAILED AND PEOPLE TALK ABOUT OVERSUPPLY FROM THE U.S.RELATIVE TO DEMAND. >> WHEN WE LOOK AT THEPERFORMANCE BETWEEN SEPTEMBER AND NOVEMBER, WHAT HAPPENED WASALL THE ASSET CLASSES WENT DOWN, WHETHER THAT WASINVESTMENT OR IN EQUITIES. ALMOST EVERYTHING WENT DOWNWITH THIS LITTLE BIT OF.

HAWKISHNESS FROM THE FED,WHEREAS BETWEEN MID NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER THAT WAS THEMIRROR IMAGE THAT EVERYTHING WAS SWEPT HIGHER ANDCOMMODITIES WERE DOING ITS OWN THING, PARTICULARLY OIL.I THINK WHEN WE LOOK AT U.S. SUPPLY THAT IS BAKED INTO THECAKE. WHEN WE LOOK FROM AN INVESTMENTPERSPECTIVE, THE FRONT OF THE CURVE HAS GONE MORE INTO LONGPOSITIONS. THE DEMAND PICTURE IS FINE ANDWE ARE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF INVENTORY RESTOCKING AGAIN ANDMANUFACTURING GLOBALLY STARTING.

TO PICK UP.THAT ARGUES FOR COMMODITY EXPOSURE ANYWAY AND THEN WELOOK AT BROADER COMMODITY POSITIONING , CLOSE TO ALL-TIMELOWS. ENERGY POSITIONING IS CLOSE TO10 YEAR LOWS. IT IS AN UNLOVED TRADE THAT WEWOULD BE HAPPY TO JUMP OFF RATHER THAN CHASING THEMAGNIFICENT SEVEN HIGHER. JONATHAN: CPI TOMORROW.A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE STILL COMFORTABLE BEING LONG RISKBECAUSE THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE THE STRONGER DATA ISDERAILING THE DISINFLATIONARY.

TRENDS OF THE LAST SIX MONTHS.DO YOU ANTICIPATE THEY WILL BE WRONG IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?MAX: I DO THINK SO. NOT BECAUSE I THINK THE DATAWILL SHOW A MASSIVE INFLATION WAVE.I DO NOT THINK IT WILL SHOW THAT WE ARE SUDDENLY GOING TOSEE CORE INFLATION GO FROM 3% TO 6%. BUT BECAUSE THE STARTING POINTIN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IS SHORT-TERM INFLATIONEXPECTATIONS IS SO MUCH MORE DOVISH NOW, THAT MEANS WE ONLYNEED A LITTLE OF WHAT WE HAD.

LAST SUMMER.INFLATION WENT FROM 3% TO 3.4% AND EVEN THAT, WHICH WAS JUSTFALLING OUT OF THE 12 MONTH WINDOW, WAS NOT ONLY ENOUGH TOFREAK OUT THE MARKET BUT TO FREAK OUT THE FED.EVEN THE FED WAS ADDING ONE ADDITIONAL HIKE IN DECEMBER, SO ALL WE NEED IS LESS DOVISH DATAAND I THINK THAT WOULD ALREADY BE ENOUGH TO SEND A BIGGER PAINACROSS ASSET CLASSES. JONATHAN: INFLATION DATA TOMORROW MORNING.MAX KETTNER OF HSBC. LISA: ONE OF THE KEY QUESTIONS,WRITTEN ABOUT LATE LAST WEEK BY.

BANK OF AMERICA, IF THE FEDDOES NOT CUT RATES OR INFLATION IS HIGHER THAN PEOPLE EXPECTED,DOES THAT KILL THE EQUITY RALLY? MAX SAYS YES.THAT IS ONE OF THE KEY QUESTIONS UNDERPINNING THEMARKET. JONATHAN: EQUITY FUTURES TOTALLYUNCHANGED ON THE S&P 500. LET'S GET YOU AN UPDATE ONSTORIES ELSEWHERE WITH DANI BURGER. >> DIAMONDBACK ENERGY ANDENDEAVOR SET TO MERGE. IT WILL BE VALUED AT OVER $50BILLION.

IT IS THE LATEST IN A WAVE OFCONSOLIDATION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR. EXXON MADE MAJOR ACQUISITIONSOVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS. PRESIDENT BIDEN'S REELECTIONCAMPAIGN HAS LAUNCHED A TIKTOK ACCOUNT, THE FIRST TIME BIDENHAS JOINED TIKTOK IN AN OFFICIAL CAPACITY.THE CHINESE OWNED APP HAS BEEN EMBROILED IN CONTROVERSY INWASHINGTON. THEY MOVE IS PART OF A BROADERSTRATEGY BY THE CAMPAIGN TO REACH YOUNGER VOTERS ON SOCIALMEDIA.

THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFSHAVE BEEN CROWNED THE FIRST BACK-TO-BACK SUPER BOWLCHAMPIONS IN 19 YEARS, DEFEATING THE SAN FRANCISCO49ERS IN OVERTIME. QUARTERBACK PATRICK MAHOMES WASNAMED M.V.P.. TAYLOR SWIFT MANIA HER MUCHANTICIPATED APPEARANCE. THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF.JONATHAN: I UNDERSTAND THE ENTERTAINMENTVALUE, BUT WHAT WAS THE FUSS ABOUT ABOUT MAKING IT IN TIME?SHE HAD HOURS TO SPARE. I THINK SHE HAD A NIGHT TO GOHOME BEFORE MAKING IT TO VEGAS.

>> PEOPLE JUST WANTED DRAMA. >> PEOPLE SAW THE DATES AND DIDNOT PUT INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN JAPAN ANDTHE UNITED STATES, BUT THIS FELT LIKE PURE ENTERTAINMENT.USA TODAY SAYS, FOR PEOPLE SAYING THERE IS TOO MUCH SWIFT,SHE WAS ON FOR ALL OF 55 SECONDS DURING 4.5 HOURS.JONATHAN: IT FEELS THAT WAY. WE CAN TALK ABOUT THECOMMERCIALS LATER. I KNOW YOU HAVE VIEWS.NEXT, TRUMP TAKING AIM AT NATO. >> THE PRESIDENTS OF A BIGCOUNTRY SAID, IF WE DO NOT PAY.

AND WE ARE ATTACKED BY RUSSIA,WILL YOU PROTECT US? I WOULD NOT PROTECT YOU.I WOULD ENCOURAGE THEM TO DO WHATEVER THEY WANT. JONATHAN:REACTION TO THOSE COMETS UP NEXT.LIVE FROM NEW YORK CITY THIS MORNING. ♪ JONATHAN: EQUITIESJONATHAN:ON THE S&P 500 TOTALLY UNCHANGED THIS MONDAY MORNINGAFTER CLOSING ABOVE 5K FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER.YIELDS ARE A LOWER THIS MONDAY, DOWN A BASIS POINT OR TWO.TRUMP TAKING AIM AT NATO.

>> YOU HAVE TO PAY UP.THEY ASKED ME THAT QUESTION, THE PRESIDENT OF THE BIGCOUNTRIES. IF WE DO NOT PAY AND WE AREATTACKED BY RUSSIA, WILL YOU PROTECT US?I SAID, YOU DID NOT PAY CUT YOUR DELINQUENT.HE SAID, YES, LET'S SAY THAT HAPPENED.I WOULD NOT PROTECT YOU. I WOULD ENCOURAGE THEM TO DOWHAT THEY WANT. >> HERE'S THE LATEST, DONALDTRUMP'S COMMENTS DURING UP BACKLASH FROM WORLD LEADERS.THE WORLD IN WHICH THE DECLINE.

OF U.S.FOREIGN POLICY IS A WORLD IN WHICH GEOPOLITICAL RISK RISESFOR MARKETS. LET'S GO STRAIGHT TO THOSECOMMENTS FROM THE FORMER PRESIDENT OVER THE WEEKEND.I WILL NOT GET INTO THE MOTIVATIONS.LET'S TALK ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES. >> THE CONSEQUENCES ARE ITMAKES PEOPLE VERY NERVOUS AND I'M NOT MEANING TO DISPEL THENERVOUSNESS BUT IT MAKES PEOPLE MORE NERVOUS THAN THEY SHOULDBE. IF YOU WANT AN INDICATION OF.

THE TRUE INTENT OF THE UNITEDSTATES ESTABLISHMENT, YOU HAVE NO FURTHER TO LOOK THAN THENATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION BILL SIGNED INTO LAW A COUPLEMONTHS AGO THAT REQUIRES CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL BEFOREYOU LEAVE NATO. WHAT YOU HAVE HERE ISESSENTIALLY TRUMP RED MEAT DESIGNED TO AMPLIFY ANDISOLATION — AN ISOLATIONIST MESSAGE.THAT IS ALL WELL AND GOOD BUT DOES NOT MATCH UP WITH THEINTENT OF CONGRESS AND OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE EITHER.YOU HAVE NOT ONLY — PRETTY.

MUCH UNITED SUPPORT FOR ISRAELBUT THREE QUARTERS OF THE HOUSE AND ALMOST ALL OF THE SENATESUPPORTING UKRAINE AS WELL. THERE IS A REAL DISCONNECTBETWEEN WHAT TRUMP IS SAYING AND WHAT THE UNITED STATESGOVERNMENT THINKS AND FEELS AND ACTS ON. LISA:WE HAVE SEEN REPUBLICANS GET IN LINE BEHIND THE FORMERPRESIDENT, MOST NOTABLY WITH THE BORDER DEAL.IS IT A CONCERN THAT REPUBLICANS WILL LINE UP ANDBECOME SOFTER WHEN IT COMES TO NATO? TERRY:I THINK IT IS A RISK.

RIGHT NOW, I DO NOT THINK IT ISMORE THAN A TRAILER RISK. I THINK THE MAJORITY OFCONGRESS IS IN FAVOR OF SUPPORTING UKRAINE AND ISRAEL,SUPPORTING WHAT WE THINK — WHAT I THINK OF AS GLOBALLEADERSHIP OBLIGATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES.I DO NOT THINK THAT IS GOING TO CHANGE MARKEDLY.WE ARE IN A MOMENT WHERE A LOT OF INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ARELOOKING AT THEIR OWN BASES, NOT THINKING ABOUT TRUMP ANDNATIONAL. THEY ARE SAYING, HOW DO INAVIGATE THROUGH THIS.

PARTICULAR SHOULDER — SHOAL?YOU WILL SEE THINGS THAT LOOK LIKE MORE SUPPORT FOR THE TRUMPPOSITION THAN THEY ARE AND I THINK THAT IS A MIRAGE.ANNMARIE: YOU MENTIONED THE FOREIGNPOLICY A BILL THAT CLEARED A HURDLE IN THE SENATE OVER THEWEEKEND. WHAT IS ITS CHANCE OF SURVIVALIN THE HOUSE? TERRY: I THINK IT HAPPENS IN A COUPLEWEEKS. I THINK THE HOUSE HAS TO BUMBLETHROUGH THIS. IF YOU PERCEIVE FROM THE –THAT THREE QUARTERS OF THE.

HOUSE SUPPORTS UKRAINE ANDUKRAINE AID, I THINK THE HOUSE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP, WHICHCONTROLS THE ABILITY TO PUT THINGS ON THE FLOOR, WILL COMEUNDER A LOT OF PRESSURE. AND HAVE TO SPRING THIS BILLLOOSE. THERE ARE A COUPLE WAYS TO DOTHAT. ONE IS TO USE A SPECIAL SUSPENSION CALENDAR THATREQUIRES TWO THIRDS OF THE OVERALL HOUSE.YOU SAW THAT USED IN THE TAX BILL.THE OTHER WAY IS TO EMPLOY A DISCHARGE PETITION.A SIMPLE MAJORITY REQUIRING THE.

BILL BE BROUGHT TO THE FLOOR.GENERALLY SPEAKING, I THINK THE HOUSE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIPWOULD PREFER NOT TO BE EMBARRASSED FURTHER AFTER THEEMBARRASSMENTS THEY HAVE BROUGHT UPON THEMSELVES IN THELAST WEEK OR SO. THAT IS NOT FULL PROOF.THEY MIGHT PREFER TO BE EMBARRASSED MORE, BUT I THINKIN THE END THIS GETS DONE. LISA: THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUTPOTENTIAL VOLATILITY BECAUSE OVER THE WEEKEND THE WHITEHOUSE TRIED TO PUSH BACK AGAINST THE SPECIAL COUNSELREPORT, CALLING IT A CHEAP SHOT.

AND SAYING THE SPECIAL COUNSELIS TRYING TO SCORE POLITICAL POINTS. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THEREBUTTAL FROM THE WHITE HOUSE? TERRY: YOU'RE FAMILIAR WITH THE STREISAND EFFECT, WHERESTREISAND COMPLAINED TO GOOGLE EARTH HER HOUSE WAS IN VIEW ANDEVERYONE STARTED TO LOOK FURTHER AT THE HOUSE TO MAKESURE THEY COULD SEE IT. I THINK YOU HAVE THAT EFFECTGOING ON HERE. WHITE HOUSE CONTINUED TOPROTEST , EVEN SETTING OUT A FUNDRAISING LETTER UNDER JILLBIDEN'S SIGNATURE A COUPLE.

TIMES PROTESTING ALL OF THIS.FIRSTLY, THIS WAS A DISASTER FOR THE WHITE HOUSE AND EASEAND IS AN ONGOING DISASTER FOR THE WHITE HOUSE.– IS AN ONGOING DISASTER FOR THE WHITE HOUSE.YOU HAVE A SITUATION WHERE THEY HAVE NINE MONTHS TO DEAL WITHIT. I THINK THAT THE SPECIAL COUNSEL PILED ON AND COULD HAVESAID WHAT HE THOUGHT ABOUT THE REASONS NOT TO PROSECUTEWITHOUT GOING INTO WHAT AMOUNTS TO OPINION, BUT IT IS OUT THEREAND IT IS DONE. THEY WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH IT,BUT THEY CANNOT DEAL WITH IT BY.

DENYING IT OR — AS ONE PUNDITPUT IT, BIDEN HAS BEEN MAKING GAFFES FOR YEARS. LISA:DO YOU GET THE SENSE THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF ANOTHERDEMOCRAT COMING INTO TAKE HIS PLACE IN THE ELECTION? TERRY:NOW. — NO. THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES ARENOT SET UP FOR THAT. BIDEN ROLLS ON.THERE IS NO SERIOUS DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION.WHAT IT IS GOING TO TAKE IS BY THE TIME YOU GET TO THECONVENTION IN THE SUMMER, YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO END UPWITH — EITHER GET FURTHER.

CHANGE IN BIDEN'S CONDITION ORA BUNCH OF ROGUE DELEGATES SAYING WE ARE NOT DOING THIS, IDO NOT CARE WHAT THE RULES SAY. JONATHAN:PERFECTLY FRAMED ABOUT THE SITUATION IN WASHINGTON, D.C.AND FOR THE NATION. THE PRESIDENT ROLLS ON SEEMS TOBE THE TAKE AWAY. LISA: SORT OF THE REASON WHY PEOPLEARE WONDERING WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN NOVEMBER IN A TIMEWHERE — I DO NOT KNOW HOW YOU CAN EXPLAIN WHAT IS GOING ONNOW. IT WAS SORT OF THIS OVER THEWEEKEND TALKING ABOUT THIS.

DENIAL THAT PUT MORE FOCUS ONCONCERNS THAT A LOT OF AMERICANS HAVE NOW. ANNMARIE:THE QUESTIONS ARE NOW GOING TO BECOME — WHICH IS WHY YOU HAVETO THINK THE WHITE HOUSE THOUGHT THEY WOULD NOT TO ASUPER BOWL INTERVIEW, BECAUSE IT CONTINUES TO BE ON TOP OFOUR MINDS, THAT YOU ARE GOING TO — HE HAS BEEN MAKING GAFFESFOR YEARS, BUT NOW THEY'RE GOING TO BECOME MORE APPARENTBECAUSE THE SPECIAL COUNSEL SAID THEY THINK HE IS AWELL-MEANING BUT ELDERLY MAN WHO HAS ISSUES WITH MEMORY.JONATHAN:.

WE HAVE BEEN DOING THESE FORTHE LAST 20 TO 40 YEARS. IT IS NOT A GREAT MESSAGE. LISA:WHY ISN'T HE ADDRESSING THE REAL ISSUE?THERE IS SPECULATION ABOUT WHY HE DIDN'T GO TO THE SUPER BOWL. JONATHAN:YOU HAVE POTENTIALLY A FORMER PRESIDENT UNDERMINING THEDEFENSE BECAUSE OF NATO. YOU HAVE THE FOCUS ON PRESIDENTBIDEN AND HIS MENTAL ACUITY AND YOU WONDER HOW THIS SHOWS UP INTHE POLLS. I AM NOT SURE THE COMMENTS ONNATO MAKE A DIFFERENCE.

WHATSOEVER. LISA: NO. DO YOU GET PEOPLE STAYING HOMEOR DO YOU HAVE A RESIGNATION TO A REALITY PEOPLE DO NOT WANT?JONATHAN: EQUITY FUTURES UNCHANGED.LIVE FROM NEW YORK, THIS IS BLOOMBERG. JONATHAN:A FOUR-DAY WINNING STREAK ON THE S&P 500.EQUITY FUTURES LIKE THIS. UNCHANGED ON THE S&P.THE NASDAQ SLIGHTLY FIRMER, POSITIVE VIA — POSITIVE BYALMOST .1%.

STRINGING TOGETHER A FIFTH WEEKOF GAINS. BLOOMBERG DID THE COUNTING SO IDON'T HAVE TO. IT TOOK 719 SESSIONS FOR THES&P 500 TO SET THIS LATEST MILESTONE. LISA:BASICALLY WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IS THE UNLOVED RALLY THATWAS DRIVEN BY A SMALL SELECT GROUP OF STOCKS.IS THIS SOMETHING THAT YOU CANNOT FIGHT AGAINST OR IS THISSOMETHING THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE FROTHY AND SET FOR APULLBACK IF PEOPLE LOOK AT INFLATION AND SEE RATE CUTTINGSENTIMENT IS — JONATHAN:.

STILL THIS EQUITY MARKET ISLOOKING ALL RIGHT. TAKE A LOOK AT THE TWO-YEAR.DOWN ABOUT A BASIS POINT. BUT THE TWO-YEAR HAD ANOTHERSOFT WEEK LAST WEEK. THE YIELD CLIMBS BY MORE THAN11 BASIS POINTS. THE DATA WAS PRETTY STRONG.JOBLESS CLAIMS A LITTLE BIT LOWER.THE PUSHBACK CONTINUED BY FED OFFICIALS WAS REINFORCED BY THEINFORMATION WE HAD. LISA: THAT IS WHY I REALLY DID THISQUESTION, WITH A RATE CUT IN MARCH ON THE TABLE, SOME AREASKING WHAT IF THE FED DOES NOT.

CUT THIS YEAR?I WONDER HOW MUCH THIS HAS TO DO WITH DIVIDENDS AND BUYBACKS.GOLDMAN SACHS TALKING ABOUT HOW EVERYONE IS BUYING — HOWEVERYONE IS INCREASING DIVIDENDS AND BUYBACKS.OUR STOCKS — ARE STOCKS THE NEW INCOME PLAY? JONATHAN:IN A WORD, EARNINGS. THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN PROTECTEDTO POST COMBINED PROFIT GROWTH OF ABOUT 55% IN THE FOURTHQUARTER. LISA: WHEN PEOPLE SAY IS THIS ANOTHER1999? OTHER PEOPLE SAY IT IS NOT JUSTA PLACARD WITH NOTHING BEHIND.

IT, 15 EMPLOYEES HOPING TO PAYTHEMSELVES WITH DEBT. JONATHAN: WHO ARE YOU SUGGESTING THAT WAS?LISA: I'M JUST SAYING, THERE IS NOTTHIS FEELING OF A SHELL COMPANY THAT'S GOING TO GO BUST.JONATHAN: IT'S REAL. EARNINGS NEXT WEDNESDAY.LET'S GO TO FOREIGN-EXCHANGE. I WAS TRYING TO WORK OUT WHOTHAT — WHO BRAMO WAS ABOUT SPECIFICALLY.HERE ARE YOUR TOP STORIES. TWO HOSTAGES FREE AFTER ANOPERATION BY ISRAELI FORCES IN GAZA.AS PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU.

VOWS TO CONTINUE THE MILITARYCAMPAIGN. ACCORDING TO THE WHITE HOUSE,PRESIDENT BIDEN SPOKE DIRECTLY WITH THE ISRAELI LEADERYESTERDAY, TELLING THEM NOT TO PROCEED WITHOUT QUOTE, ACRITICAL AN EXECUTABLE PLAN FOR THE SAFETY AND SUPPORT OFCIVILIANS. TALKING ABOUT THE SOUTHERN PARTOF GOFF — GAZA, THIS IS WHERE MANY CIVILIANS FLED TO AFTERTHE CONFLICT STARTED. ANNMARIE: THEY MOVED SOUTH.THE ISRAELIS TOLD THEM TO MOVE SOUTH AND THAT IS WHY THIS HASBECOME AN ISSUE THAT NOT JUST.

FROM THE WHITE HOUSE BUTCAPITALS AROUND YOU EUROPE — AROUND EUROPE SAY THEY ARECONCERNED ABOUT THE SAFETY OF THESE PEOPLE. EGYPT HAS WARNED HAMAS IT NEEDSTO REACH THIS ACCORD ABOUT THE HOSTAGES IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS ORISRAEL WILL PROCEED WITH THE RAFAH INVASION. JONATHAN:MUCH HARDER STARTS COMING FOR THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITEDSTATES. GIVEN WHERE THE POLLS ARE RIGHTNEVER PRESIDENT BIDEN,, YOU IMAGINE AN EVEN HARDER STANCEIS GOING TO COME IN THE FUTURE?.

LISA:PRIVATELY HE HAS BEEN TELLING HIS AIDES THAT HE REALLYDISAGREES WITH THE PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL AND HETHINKS THAT HE IS NOT NECESSARILY BEING AS REASONABLEAS HE WOULD LIKE AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH INFLUENCE.WHY HASN'T HE GONE PUBLIC WITH THAT?ESPECIALLY BECAUSE NETANYAHU IS NOT POPULAR IN ISRAEL AND A LOTOF PEOPLE THINK HE IS MORE EXTREME AND NOT PROTECTING THENATION. ANNMARIE: WE DID SEE SOME OF THAT CREEPOUT LAST WEEK WHEN BIDEN SAID.

HE DID THINK WHAT NETANYAHU WASDOING WAS QUOTE, OVER THE TOP. A LITTLE BUT OF THATFRUSTRATION IS TURNING TO COME OUT BUT IT IS PALPABLE BEHINDTHE SCENES. JONATHAN: THE FOCUS IS BACK ON THEPENTAGON. DEFENSE SECRETARY AUSTIN ISBACK IN THE HOSPITAL. HE WAS ADMITTED LAST NIGHT FORSYMPTOMS SUGGESTING AN EMERGENT BLADDER ISSUE.DR. SAYING AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG HE WILLREMAIN HOSPITALIZED. HIS DUTIES HAVE BEENTRANSFERRED TO THE DEPUTY.

DEFENSE SECRETARY. LISA:TWO THINGS NOTABLE ABOUT THIS. THE DOD CAME OUT IMMEDIATELY TOSAY HE WAS BEING TRANSFERRED TO A HOSPITAL.THEY LEARNED THEIR LESSON ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED PRIOR TO WHENTHEY DIDN'T AND THEY WERE LESS TRANSPARENT AND THE WHITE HOUSEWAS CONFUSED. THEY CAME OUT AFTER HE WASTRANSFERRED ABOUT TWO HOURS LATER, SAYING THAT HE IS NOT –HE IS NOT IN THE STABLE CONDITION WHERE HE CAN CONTINUEHIS DUTIES. A LOT OF CONCERNS. THIS WEEK ALONE, HE WASSUPPOSED TO HAVE TWO MEETINGS.

IN EUROPE, ONE REGARDINGUKRAINE AND THE OTHER REGARDING NATO DEFENSE. JONATHAN:FAR MORE TRANSPARENCY THIS TIME AROUND. THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AREREPEAT SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS AFTER A VICTORY OVER THE SANFRANCISCO 49ERS. A LATE FIELD GOAL TIED THE GAMEAND THEN PATRICK MAHOMES LED THE CHIEFS DOWN THE FIELD TOCHANT — TO CLINT'S THE THIRD TITLE IN FIVE YEARS.TAYLOR SWIFT WAS IN ATTENDANCE. AFTER MAKING A TOUR STOP INJAPAN ON SATURDAY WITH HOURS TO.

SPARE. AMH, NEVER MIND TAYLOR SWIFTAND TRAVIS KELCE. WE WANT THE BRAMO REFUTE ON THECOMMERCIALS AT HALFTIME. LISA: THERE WERE SO MANY MOVIESCOMING OUT AND THEY ALL JUST SAID GO TO THE TRAILERS.I ALSO LIKE THE DUNKIN' DONUTS ONE. JONATHAN:THAT WAS MY FAVORITE. ANNMARIE: YOU STAYED UP FOR IT?I FIND IT NOTABLE. LISA:I JUST WATCHED AT HALFTIME. ANNMARIE:BEYONCE ANNOUNCES A NEW COUNTRY.

ALBUM DURING THE COMMERCIALS.JONATHAN: DO YOU THINK THAT WAS THE BIGTAKEAWAY? ANNMARIE: 100%. JONATHAN:I'M NOT SURE A LOT OF OUR AUDIENCE WOULD HAVE AGREED WITHTHAT. DIAMONDBACK AND ENDEAVOR ANNOUNCING THEY ARE MERGING.$26 BILLION. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATEANOTHER OIL AND GAS GIANT. LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS DEAL, OFFTHE BACK OF SEVERAL OTHER BIG DEALS INCLUDING CHEVRON, EXXONAND OTHERS. HOW IMPORTANT IS IT? >> IT'S A BIG DEAL.

— MIDLAND SIDE OF THE PERMIAN.IT IS REALLY TWO AREAS. TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.IT CREATES A BIG COMPANY AND AMAZING GROWTH FROM DIAMONDBACK.IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT THIS COMPANY WAS CREATED IN2007 WITH 800 BARRELS A DAY OF OIL PRODUCTION.AFTER THE MERGER, IT IS GOING TO BE PRODUCING 800,000 BARRELSA DAY. JONATHAN: EXXON ACQUIRING PIONEER, $60BILLION DEAL. WHAT IS LEFT?WHAT IS LEFT TO CONSOLIDATE? JAVIER:WE STILL SEE MORE CONSOLIDATION.

IN THE PERMIAN.WE HAVE SEEN THE BIGGEST DEALS, THE OBVIOUS ONES, FAMILY OWNEDCOMPANIES THAT WANT TO CASH OUT OR THEY HAVE A TRANSITION ATTHE HEAD OF THE FAMILIES. I THINK THERE ARE STILL TOOMANY PERMIAN COMPANIES IN THE RANGE OF 250,000 BARRELS A DAYTHAT THEY NEED TO COMBINE AMONG THEMSELVES.I DON'T THINK WE ARE DONE. WE WILL STILL SEE BIG NUMBERSOF CONSOLIDATION, BUT PERHAPS THE BIGGEST, WE HAVE ALREADYSEEN. LISA: WHAT IS THE GOAL BEHIND SOME OFTHESE MERGERS?.

IS IT ECONOMIES OF SCALE?IS IT THAT YOU CAN GET MORE PRODUCTION IF YOU HAVE SOMESUBJECT METHOD THAT GOES ACROSS A BIGGER SWATH OF LAND –STRATEGIC METHOD ECHOES ACROSS A BIGGER SWATH OF LAND? JAVIER: THE PERMIAN HAS REALLY MOVEDINTO THE PHASE OF MASS PRODUCTION OF BARRELS OF OIL.REDUCING COSTS PER BARREL IS VERY IMPORTANT AND CREATINGCOMPANIES LARGE ENOUGH TO TICK THE BOX FOR INVESTORS REQUIRINGCOMPANIES IN THE RANGE OF $50 BILLION TO INVEST. THAT IS WHATI THINK THOSE COMPANIES THAT.

ARE STILL — ARE GOING TO HAVETO LOOK FOR OPTIONS TO CREATE LARGER VEHICLES TO ATTRACT THEATTENTION OF INVESTORS. ANNMARIE:HOW DO YOU SEAL IT — HOW DO YOU SEE A DEAL LIKE THIS ANDTOP OF THE OTHERS JON NOTED? DO YOU THINK THEY ARE STRANDEDASSETS AS THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION CALLED THEM?JAVIER: I DON'T THINK THEY ARE STRANDEDASSETS. A GOOD PRICE, GOOD RETURN BUT ISTILL SEE DEMAND FOR OIL. WE SEE GLOBAL OIL DEMANDGROWING.

WE ARE GOING TO HEAR ABOUT BIGOIL DEMAND UNTIL ABOUT THE 20 30'S.SO FAR, VERY HEALTHY DEMAND. THAT IS EXACTLY ON TRACK FORTHE LAST 20 YEARS AND DEMAND HAS BEEN GROWING EVERY YEAR.WE HAVE YET TO SEE THE BIG DECENTRALIZATION OF OIL DEMAND.ANNMARIE: SHALE ROARING BACK. WHAT DOES THIS MESSAGE SENDBACK TO OPEC AND ABU DHABI? JAVIER:THERE IS A BIG PROBLEM FOR OPEC BECAUSE LAST YEAR, THIS YEAR,MOST LIKELY NEXT YEAR WE WILL.

SEE A LOT OF OIL PRODUCTION INTHE AMERICAS. IT IS NOT JUST THE PERMIAN.IT IS ALSO CANADA, BRAZIL. YOU PUT ALL OF THEM TOGETHER,IF THE U.S. SLOWS DOWN A BIT, ALL OF THOSECOUNTRIES ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ABOUT ONE MILLIONBARRELS OF OIL A DAY COMBINED, WHICH IS ENOUGH TO OFFSET THEOIL DEMAND AROUND THE WORLD. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR OPEC ISTHE WORLD'S NOT TRANSITIONING AWAY FROM OIL, IT ISTRANSITIONING FROM OPEC OIL TO AMERICAN OIL. JONATHAN:THAT IS SUCH A FANTASTIC POINT.

DOES THAT EXPLAIN HOWCOMFORTABLE WE ARE IN THE SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST,SPECIFICALLY IN CRUDE MARKETS WITH PRICES STILL PRETTY LOW ALOT OF TO THE TENSION WE ARE SEEING? JAVIER:YOU HAVE — IF YOU HAD TOLD ME 20 YEARS AGO WE WERE GOING TOHAVE A BIG MILITARY CAMPAIGN IN THE GAZA STRIP AGAIN ,SIGNIFICANT ATTACKS BY THE HOUTHI'S TO COMMERCIAL SHIPPINGIN THE RED SEA, AND OIL PRICES WERE GOINGTO BE UNDER $100, I WOULD NOT BELIEVE IT AND YET HERE WE ARE.THAT GOES INTO HOW MUCH OIL.

PRODUCTION HAS GROWN IN THEAMERICAS. LET ME FINISH WITH A PIECE OFDATA FROM THIS MORNING. IF YOU ADD THE UNITED STATESTOTAL PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND CANADIAN TOTAL PRODUCTION, THATIS 25% OF THE WORLD'S OIL PRODUCTION RIGHT NOW.ONE IN FOUR BARRELS OF OIL TODAY ARE PRODUCED IN THEUNITED STATES OR CANADA. THAT REALLY IS WHY POTENTIALLYTHE MIDDLE EAST AS HAVING LIMITED IMPACT IN THE OILMARKET. JONATHAN: THANK YOU SIR, JAVIER BLAS OFBLOOMBERG OPINION. JONATHAN:.

COMING AT IT — LISA:COMING AT A TIME WHERE THERE IS THIS GOAL TO BRING DOWN PRICESAHEAD OF THE ELECTION AND IN RESPONSE A LOT OF THE DEMAND.IS THERE ANY COORDINATED EFFORT TO GET THOSE BARRELS OUT THEWAY THERE IS AN OPEC OR IS IT SICKLY A FREE-FOR-ALL?THAT IS THE QUESTION. DOES IT CREATE A CAP TO HOWHIGH PRICES CAN GO BECAUSE THEY CAN KEEP RAMPING UP PRODUCTION,ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEW CORPORATE STRUCTURE? JONATHAN:DESPITE THE BEST EFFORTS OF THE GOVERNMENTS IN CANADA AND THEUNITED STATES. LISA:.

THE OPPOSITE OF OPEC. ANNMARIE:THIS IS WHY WHEN YOU TALK TO MIDDLE EASTERNERS, THEY SCRATCH THEIR HEAD, JOHN KERRY TELLINGTHEM THE NEED TO DO MORE ON CLIMATE BUT THEN THEY SAY LOOKAT YOUR NUMBERS COMPARED TO OUR NUMBERS WHEN IT COMES TO CRUDEPRODUCTION. JONATHAN: WTI, 75.99.LET'S GIVE YOU AN UPDATE ON STORIES ELSEWHERE.DANI BURGER WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. DANI: ISRAEL LAUNCHED A SERIES OFSTRIKES IN THE SOUTHERN GAZA.

STRIP ON MONDAY.THE MILITARY SAYS THE OPERATION FREED TWO HOSTAGES.THE STRIKES CAME AFTER PRESIDENT BIDEN URGED PRIMEMINISTER NETANYAHU TO DO MORE TO PROTECT CIVILIANS.MORE THAN HALF A MILLION PALESTINIANS HAVE FLED TO RAFAH.U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY LLOYD AUSTINHAS BEEN HOSPITALIZED FOR THE SECOND TIME IN A MONTH.THE PENTAGON CHIEF WAS ADMITTED INTO CARE WITH AN APPARENTBLADDER ISSUE. THE DEPUTY DEFENSE SECRETARYHAS TAKEN OVER HIS FUNCTIONS.

AND DUTIES.AUSTIN HAS BEEN INCURRED A SIZE OR FAILING TO DISCLOSE HE HADBEEN HOSPITALIZED ON NEW YEAR’'S DAY FOR COMPLICATIONSFROM PROSTATE CANCER SURGERY. PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS CALLED OUTMAJOR SNACK BRANDS OVER SHRINK INFLATION AT OF THE SUPER BOWL.HE DID NOT NAME SPECIFIC COMPANIES NOR DID HE OFFER ASOLUTION ON HOW TO HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE FOR SELLING LESSPRODUCT AT A HIGHER PRICE. >> SOME COMPANIES ARE TRYING TOPULL A FAST ONE BY SHRINKING THEIR PRODUCTS LITTLE BY LITTLEAND HOPING YOU WON'T NOTICE.

GIVE ME A BREAK.THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS TIRED OF BEING PLAYED FOR SUCKERS.I'M CALLING ON COMPANIES TO PUT A STOP TO THIS. DANI:EVEN AS INFLATION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING, THE ECONOMY REMAINS ATOP ISSUE FOR MANY AMERICANS HEADING INTO THE ELECTION.THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. JONATHAN:DIDN'T HE COMPLAIN ABOUT THE PRICE OF A STICKERS IN RECENTWEEKS? ANNMARIE: THE PRICES STAY THE SAME WHILETHE SIZE OF THE BAR SHRUNK. BLOOMBERG DID A TEST ON THISAND IN AMERICA, THE SNICKERS.

BAR STAYED THE SAME.IN AUSTRALIA, TRUMP. LISA:HE'S LIKE THE UNCLE THAT SHOWS UP, LIKE THERE'S ONLY FIVECHIPS IN HERE VERSUS EIGHT CHIPS LAST YEAR. JONATHAN:THIS HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR LIKE A DECADE. UP NEXT, USCP I JUST AROUND THECORNER. >> CERTAINLY A MODEL THAT YOUTAKE QUICKLY. BUT IS NOT A MODEL THAT IS GOODFOR THE ECONOMY. IF I COULD GET THESE KINDS OFNUMBERS SUSTAINED AND BROUGHT.

ON, THAT IS WHAT I'M LOOKINGFOR. JONATHAN: THAT CONVERSATION IS COMING UPNEXT. U.S. CPI. JUST AROUND THE CORNER. ♪ JONATHAN: 43 MINUTES AWAY.7:30 EASTERN TIME, PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL NIKKI HALEY ONBLOOMBERG TV. THAT CONVERSATION AROUND THECORNER. EQUITY FUTURES THIS MORNING.TOTALLY UNCHANGED. U.S. CPI COMING UP NEXT. >> IT'S A VERY STRONG LABORMARKET.

GRATIFIED TO SEE INFLATION COMEDOWN. HOPING IT CONTINUES TO COMEDOWN. TO ME THERE IS CERTAINLY A MODEL THAT IS GOOD.IF I CAN GET THESE KIND OF NUMBERS SUSTAINED, AND EVENBETTER, BROADEN, THAT IS WHAT I'M LOOKING FOR. JONATHAN: U.S. CPI SET OUT TOMORROW FOLLOWEDBY PPI ON FRIDAY. INVESTORS LOOKING FOR INFLATIONTO CONTINUE TOWARD THE 2% GOAL. WE EXPECT HEADLINE CPI TO HAVERISEN 0.1% IN JANUARY AND THE ANNUAL RATE TO SLIP TO 3.0%.WE RETAIN OUR BASELINE CALL.

THAT THE FOMC WILL INITIATE A25 BASIS POINT RATE IN THE MAY MEETING FOLLOWED BY THREE MORETHING TO FIVE BASIS POINT CUTS. POOJA, ARE THERE ANY SIGNS ATALL THAT ARE OF A CONCERN TO YOU THAT THE JUST — MIGHT BEDERAILED BY THE STRONGER THAN IT'S A PAID TO DATA KICKING OFF2024 — STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED DATA KICKING UP2024? POOJA: I DO SEE RISKS BUILDING, THATCOULD PERHAPS JEOPARDIZE THE SMOOTH DISINFLATION WE HAVESEEN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. ACTIVITY IN THE U.S.ECONOMY HAS CONSISTENTLY.

SURPRISED ON THE UPSIDE, BETHAT GROWTH OR CONSUMER SPENDING OR LABOR MARKETS BUTOUTSIDE OF THAT, THERE ARE ALSO SOME NEAR-TERM RISKS.WE HAVE THE SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS IN THE RED SEA.IT IS NOT VERY GOOD NEWS AS FAR AS SMALL GOODS INFLATION ISCONCERNED. I THINK ON BALANCE, WE LIKE THEFED WANT TO SEE MORE DATA TO BECOME CONFIDENT THAT THISDISINFLATION WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHSCONTINUES. ANNMARIE: — LISA: THE LIKELIHOOD THAT CPI MIGHTBE COMING DOWN, DOES THAT MAKE.

IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE FEDWON'T CUT THIS YEAR, ONLY CUT ONCE? POOJA: I WOULD NOT GO AS FAR AS SAYINGTHEY WON'T CUT UP FROM WHAT WE'VE HEARD FROM THEM, THEY BASICALLY WANT TO BUILD ASINFLATION CONTINUES TO WHAT IT TO PERCENT TARGET.CHAIR POWELL AS WELL AS RECENT COMMUNICATION FROM FOMCMEMBERS, THEY WERE VERY CLEAR THAT THEY DON'T WANT TO SEEBETTER DATA, THEY JUST WANT TO SEE MORE GOOD DATA.

AS LONG AS WE SEE THIS GRADUALPROGRESS DOWN, THEY SHOULD BE IN A POSITION WHERE THEY CANFEEL CONFIDENT OF WANTING TO CUT.IF THE OPPOSITE HAPPENS AND WE SEE RISKS AND IT — ANDINFLATION EXHILARATING, THEY WOULD WANT TO HOLD OFF. LISA:WHAT I FIND FASCINATING IS THIS DISSONANCE BETWEEN CONSUMERSAND ECONOMISTS WHO THINK THAT RIGHT NOW, POLICY IS TOORESTRICTIVE. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OFBUSINESS ECONOMICS POLL THAT WAS PUBLISHED TODAY SAID THATMORE THAN A FIFTH OF.

RESPONDENTS SAID THE CURRENTFED POLICY IS TOO RESTRICTIVE. THAT'S THE MOST SINCE 2011.DO YOU AGREE? POOJA: THERE IS SOME TRUTH TO THAT.POLICY IS RESTRICTED. THAT IS A LOT.AS YOU KNOW, WE DON'T HAVE A VERY CLEAR ESTIMATE OF WHERETHE NEUTRAL RATE IS, BUT BY DIFFERENT ESTIMATES, IT STILLLOOKS LIKE WE ARE AT A PLACE WHERE THE INTEREST RATES AREELEVATED, THEY COULD BITE INTO THE ECONOMY AND MAYBE THERE IS ROOM FOR US TO START –ESPECIALLY IF THE INFLATION.

SIDE LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TOBE MET AND IT IS A REASON TO KEEP RATES AT THESE LEVELSUNLESS THERE IS A REAL RISK ON THE INFLATION SIDE. JONATHAN:21% SAY TOO RESTRICTIVE. LOOKING AT THE LABOR MARKETALONE, WE'VE BEEN AT THIS RATE SINCE LAST SUMMER.HOW MUCH EVIDENCE IS THERE IN THE LABOR MARKET THAT WE ARETOO RESTRICTIVE? POOJA: THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING –DESPITE THE STRONG LABOR MARKETS, WE'VE GOT HIGHINTEREST RATES BUT WE ALSO HAD A LABOR MARKET THAT WAS RUNNINGSO HOT.

I THINK A LOT OF THAT CAN BEEXPLAINED BY THE GROWTH AND LABOR FORCE WE SAW IN 2023.THERE WAS A LOT OF INCOMING LABOR SUPPLY– THERE WAS A LOT OF REBALANCING THAT HELPED THELABOR MARKET HOLD ON TO ITS STEAM, DESPITE THE ENVIRONMENT.THAT IS WHAT EXPLAINS WHY WE COULD SEE THIS HOT LABOR MARKETDESPITE AN — DESPITE THE KIND OF INTEREST RATES WE HAVE HAD.JONATHAN: THE SUPPLY RESPONSE TO THEECONOMY HAS ARGUED LEE KEPT A LID ON PRICE PRESSURE IN THELABOR MARKET.

THAT COULD BE A ONE-OFF FACTOR.DOES THAT CONTINUE IN THE YEARS AHEAD? POOJA: I THINK WE ARE BECOMING ALITTLE SKEPTICAL , THE LAST SITUATION REPORTSREALLY SHOWED LIMITED EVIDENCE OF ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE LABORSUPPLY. IF ANYTHING, EVEN AFTER ADJUSTING FOR POPULATIONESTIMATES, THE LABOR SUPPLY WAS REPORTED TO HAVE DECLINED INTHE LAST TWO MONTHS. GOING BY THAT, IT DOES APPEARTHAT THE SUPPLY SIDE PORTION THAT WAS HELPING DISINFLATIONIS STARTING TO FADE OUT.

THAT SAID, THE CBO LAST WEEKPUT OUT THERE ESTIMATES ON GDP GROWTH AND UNDERLINING THAT WASA KEY ASSUMPTION THAT THE FAVORABLE SUPPLIES SIDE EFFECTOF THE LABOR MARKET CONTINUES. THEY ARE VERY OPTIMISTIC THATWHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN 2023 IN TERMS OF INCOMING LABOR SUPPLYCONTINUES. IF THAT PANS OUT, THEN PERHAPSWE COULD STILL GET THIS DISINFLATION STORY, BUT WE ARESTRING TO GET A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT THAT CONTINUES.LISA: ARE WE TALKING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FED SORT OFIMPLICITLY ACCEPTING A TO POINT.

SOMETHING PERCENT INFLATIONRATE — A TWO POINT SOMETHING INFLATION RATE? POOJA:WE WROTE IN THE REPORT, THERE ARE RISKS THAT THIS RATE CUTGETS PUSHED OUT TO LATER IN THE YEAR.WE MAY GET FEWER RATE CUTS IN THIS CYCLE, AT LEAST UNTIL SUCHTIME THAT WE GET A FAIR IDEA OF WHERE THE DEMAND IS. JONATHAN:WE APPRECIATE YOUR TAKE. POOJA SRIRAM, OF BARCLAYS. TOMORROW MORNING, THESE THEESTIMATES. HEADLINE CPI, LOOKING AT 2.9%.THE PREVIOUS NUMBER, 3.4%.

WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT ANOTHERTIME. 3.7%, THE ESTIMATE. LISA: THAT WOULD BE THE SMALLESTYEAR-OVER-YEAR ADVANCE GOING BACK TO APRIL 2021.PROGRESS MAYBE WOULD NOT BACK TO LEVELS PEOPLE WANT — MAYBENOT BACK TO LEVELS PEOPLE WANT. THAT IS ONE OF THE KEYQUESTIONS AND THE OTHER KEY QUESTION IS, IS IT SHRINK FLAKEAND — SHRINKFLATION? JONATHAN:WE COULD GET INTO THAT . MULTIPLE HE THE FED IS NOTCOMFORTABLE TO START CUTTING JUST YET.THE WORD ABUT INFLATION.

STABILIZING ABOVE TARGET, ONCETHEY START CUTTING, THEY DON'T WANT TO HAVE TO START HIKINGJUST A FEW WEEKS LATER. LISA: THEY CUT ONCE BY 25 BASISPOINTS, MAYBE THEY DON'T HAVE TO AGAIN.AT THIS POINT, SONY PEOPLE SAY WE DON'T CARE ANYMORE.JUST A MATTER OF THEM HAVING MADE THIS PIVOT — PIVOT ANDLET'S MOVE ON. JONATHAN: YOU CAN SEE IN THE MARKET. NEXT HOUR, THE SECOND HOUR OFBLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

>> WE HAVE SEEN INFLATIONCOMING DOWN AND THAT IS WHAT INVESTORS ARE LOOKING AT. >> OUR BASE CASE IS STILL THATWE'RE GOING TO SEE INFLATION GET BACK TO 2% AND REMAIN THERE.>> THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR IS SUPPORTING INFLATIONREEMERGING. >> THIS IS BLOOMBERGSURVEILLANCE WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ ANDANNMARIE HORDERN. JONATHAN: GOOD MORNING.THE SECOND HOUR OF BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE BEGINS RIGHT NOW.

YOUR EQUITY MARKET ON AFOUR-DAY WINNING STREAK, A FIVE WEEK — A FIVE-DAY WINNINGSTREAK ON THE S&P 500. EQUITY FUTURES JUST ABOUTUNCHANGED. ANOTHER BIG ENERGY DEAL.CPI TOMORROW MORNING. BOTTOM OF THE HOUR, WE TALKABOUT AN INTERVIEW WITH NIKKI HALEY.FOREIGN POLICY FRONT AND CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND. LISA:ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE SEEM TO BE CAREENING TOWARDAN ELECTION AND PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO IT.IT IT TAKES ALL THE HEADLINES.

OF PEOPLE ARE WONDERING WHAT ISTHE POLICY STANCE WE ARE HEADING INTO BUT IS GOING TOFRAME SOME OF THE ENTHUSIASM WE ARE SEEING? JONATHAN:THE FORMER PRESIDENT THROWING COLD WATER ON NATO OVER THEWEEKEND. ANNMARIE, AT BEST, THIS TEMPORARILY UNDERMINES THECOLLECTIVE DEFENSE CLAUSE OF NATO.AT WORST, THE SITUATION IS THIS ACTIVELY ENCOURAGES THE RUSSIANPRESIDENT TO CARRY ON PUSHING FORWARD. ANNMARIE: ABSOLUTELY. THAT'S WHY YOU HAVE A NUMBER OFFOREIGN POLICY HAWKS VERY.

CONCERNED GIVEN THE FACT THATRUSSIA IS WAGING A WAR IN UKRAINE ON NATO'S DOORSTEP.TRUMP SAID HE WAS IN THIS MEETING, HE WAS MORE EMPHATICABOUT OVER THE WEEKEND, HE SAID IF RUSSIA WERE TO DO THAT, IFYOU WERE TO LINCOLN UNDERSPENDING, HE WOULD QUOTETELL RUSSIA TO DO WHATEVER THEY WANT, TO THOSE MEETING — TOTHOSE NOT MEETING THOSE OBLIGATIONS.NIKKI HALEY, DONALD TRUMP OVER THE WEEKEND, WAS VERY RUDEABOUT HER HUSBAND, SAYING WHERE IS HE?BIDEN TWEETED, MAJOR HALEY IS.

SERVING HIS COUNTRY.A LOT OF FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES IN PLAY RIGHT NOW. JONATHAN:REPUBLICAN SENATORS ASKED ABOUT THIS OVER THE WEEKEND.RUBIO SAYS HE DOES NOT TALKING NORMAL POLITICIAN.THE THING YOU'VE HEARD A MILLION TIMES. LISA:CAN YOU DISMISS THIS AS SIMPLY RHETORIC THAT IS TRYING TO BEFIERY? IT REALLY SPEAKS TO THIS QUESTION THAT WE SEE INCONGRESS. FORGET WHAT IS HAPPENING INNOVEMBER. GIVEN THE FACT THAT TRUMP KINDOF IS PULLING THE STRINGS.

BEHIND SOME OF THE PUSH PULL INTHE REPUBLICAN PARTY. JONATHAN: WE WILL DEAL WITH THAT.I DID MENTION THAT DEAL IN THE ENERGY PATCH.WE'VE HAD A $60 BILLION DEAL BETWEEN EXXON AND PIONEER, A 53BULLION DOLLAR DEAL BETWEEN CHEVRON AND HESS, OXYPURCHASING CROWN ROCK AND THEN THIS MORNING, DIAMONDBACKENERGY AND ENDEAVOR ENERGY GETTING TOGETHER. LISA:THE LARGEST PURE PLAY OPERATOR, IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.EFFICIENCY OF SCALE, LAYOFFS, WHAT IS THAT GOING TO LOOK LIKE?MY SECOND QUESTION, HOW MUCH IS.

THIS GOING TO TAKE OUT SOME OFTHE DEBT AND ALL THE DIFFERENT ENERGY COMPANIES YOU SEE ALL OFTHESE TIEUPS. THE THIRD QUESTION, WHAT'S NEXT?HAVE ALL THE BIG DEALS BEEN DONE?IS THAT THE CASE OR DO WE SEE MORE DOWN THE PIPE? JONATHAN:THE HEADQUARTERS OF BOTH COUNTRIES ARE LITERALLY A BLOCKAPART IN TEXAS. LISA: I WILL LET MIDLAND TAKE THAT ON.JONATHAN: ANOTHER CRE CRISIS. EQUITIES ON THE S&P 500,TOTALLY UNCHANGED TO — UNCHANGED TO KICK OFF THETRADING WEEK.

WE ARE DOWN TWO BASIS POINTS. COMING UP THIS HOUR, STUARDKAISER OF CITI. GENNADIY GOLDBERG OF TDSECURITIES AND REPUBLICAN HOPEFUL NIKKI HALEY.WE BEGIN WITH OUR TOP STORIES. STUARD KAISER OF CITI REMAININGBULLISH. WITH VERY STRONG GROWTH DATA ASA BACKDROP, CPI COULD LEAD INVESTORS INTO EITHERGOLDILOCKS OR OVERHEATING CAMPS. LET'S GO STRAIGHT TO IT.YOU GOT A CLEAR LINE OF SIGHT. YOU'VE BEEN TELLING US HOW GOODDATA IS GOOD NEWS FOR STOCKS.

DO YOU THINK IT IS GOING TOCONTINUE TO BE THAT WAY? STUARD WITH THINK IT IS A GOODENVIRONMENT FOR OWNING EQUITIES. WHAT IS DIFFERENT NOW IS FOR A. OF — FOR A PERIOD OF TIME, –THAT HAD PEOPLE QUESTIONING, IS THAT SURVEY DATA FORWARD AND WENEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THAT? I THINK YOU ARE GETTING A VERYCLEAN STRONG POSITIVE ON THE GROWTH SIDE OF THE EQUATION. IF WE WERE TO GET AN UPSIDESURPRISE ON CPI, FOLKS MIGHT SAY IS THIS THING REALLYOVERHEATING AND THEN DO WE HAVE.

TO PRICE CUTS OUT INSTEAD OFPUSHING THEM OUT? THAT'LL BE A KEY TAKEAWAY FROMTHE DATE OF THIS WEEK. JONATHAN: I THINK THAT GOT PEOPLECONCERNED. IS IT SUFFICIENT TO TIP THESCALE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER TOMORROW MORNING. STUART: WHAT THE FED TOLD YOU IS THEINFLATION WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS IS ENOUGH TOJUSTIFY CUTTING. IF IT IS STEADY AS SHE GOES,THAN THE FED WANTS TO BE CUTTING RATES THIS YEAR.UNLESS WE GET SOMETHING OFF THE.

RADAR A LITTLE BIT, WE SHOULDBE CONTINUING ON THE PATH WE ARE ON, WHICH IS STRONG GROWTHDATA AND THE FED IS LIKE ME TO CUT AT SOME POINT. LISA:YOU JUST FLIRTED WITH GOOD NEWS IS BAD NEWS.BASICALLY THE RISK OF OVERHEATING, THEN WHAT?IS THAT NEGATIVE FOR STOCKS? STUART: OVERHEAT? HONESTLY, NO.THIS IS A NOMINAL GROWTH ASSET. WE ARE OF THE VIEW THAT IFRATES CUTS ARE GETTING PRICED OUT BECAUSE GROWTH DATA ISSTRONG, THEN YOU WANT TO REMAIN LONG EQUITY RISKS.THERE ARE CERTAIN AREAS OF THE.

MARKET, CERTAIN TRADESPEOPLEHAVE ON THAT ARE MUCH MORE SENSITIVE TO THAT RATE CUTPRICING. YOU CAN HAVE A PERIOD ORSMALL-CAP EQUITIES GOT BEAT UP IN JANUARY AND THE S&P 500 WASSTILL UP. THERE ARE POCKETS OF THE MARKETTHAT ARE STILL SENSITIVE TO THE RHETORIC BUT AT THE INDEX LEVELWE ARE STILL COMFORTABLE. LISA: TALKING ABOUT MARKET-BASEDBETS, MARKET-WEIGHTED S&P 500 IS THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW, AT ATIME WHERE IT IS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHEN THAT ROTATIONIS GOING TO BE TRIGGERED?.

STUART:YOU ARE TRYING TO GET ME INTO TROUBLE.FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE, WE STILL LIKE S&P.WE'VE NEVER BEEN COMFORTABLE GOING DOWN TO SMALL-CAP.WITH THICKET HAS MORE GROWTH AND INTEREST RATE RISK.EARNINGS SEASON KIND OF DROVE THIS HOME.WE ARE SEEING A BROADENING OUT OF THE PROFIT — PROFIT ABILITYOF THE S&P — PROFITABILITY OF THE S&P.IN OUR VIEW, COMING AT A EARNINGS, THE STORY IS GOING TOBE THAT THE S&P IS GOING TO.

GROW 10% PLUS.EIGHT SECTORS WILL HAVE POSITIVE GROWTH AND THAT ALLOWSYOU TO KIND OF OWN A BROADER VARIETY OF S&P STOCKS. JONATHAN:IF YOU ARE STRIPPING AT THE BIG MUSCLE OF BIG TECH, BEYOND BIGTECH, YOU MENTIONED A BUNCH OF SECTORS.CAN YOU IDENTIFY A COUPLE WHERE YOU ARE SUPER CONSTRUCTIVE?STUART: THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EQUALWEIGHT AND CAP WAITED S&P'S MORE INDUSTRIALS OR LESS TECH.AS MUCH AS WE DON'T WANT TO FADE THAT TECH TRADE, IF YOUARE ARGUING FOR BROADENING, YOU.

NEED TO SEE HEALTH CARE INPARTICULAR AND YOU NEED TO SEE INDUSTRIALS DISSIPATE AS WELL.HEALTH CARE IS EASIER. COMING OFF THE COVID STUFF.INDUSTRIALS WILL BE A TEST CASE. I THINK THOSE ARE TWO OF THEKEY SECTORS THAT WILL BE IN PLAY. JONATHAN:HOW COMPLICATED IS THAT NOW? STUART:FINANCIALS ARE A COMPLICATED TRADE.WE ARE LESS CONCERNED WITH LARGE CAP FINANCIALS.IT IS THAT SMALL-CAP REGIONAL BANKS TRADE THAT HAS COME UNDERPRESSURE.

A LOT OF FOLKS WERE IN THATTRADE SIMILAR TO IW WHEN BEFORE THAT RATE — IWN BEFORE THATRATES CUTS STORY. THEN YOU HAD THE NEW YORK UNITYBANK NEWS. IF YOU ARE A MACRO INVESTOR,INVESTING IN REGIONAL BANKS FOR GROWTH AND INTEREST RATES ANDYOU GET A CREDIT RISK SURPRISE, I'M NOT GOING TO BE MODELINGTHESE BALANCE SHEETS BOTTOM UP SO I NEED TO BE MORE CAUTIOUS.LARGE-CAP BANKS, I THINK THAT TRADE CAN STILL WORK.REGIONAL BANKS, WE'VE NEVER BEEN SUPER EXCITED.IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT.

PEOPLE ARE BEING CAUTIOUS BUTLARGE-CAP, OK, REGIONALS, YOU WANT TO BE CAREFUL. LISA: THE IDEA OF STOCKS IS THE NEWBOND, BUT THERE IS THE SORT OF QUESTION AS THEY START TO DOMORE DIVIDEND PAYOUTS AND A LOT OF CORPORATE EXECUTIVES STARTTO ENGAGE IN GREATER SHIRE — SHARE BUYBACKS.AT WHAT POINT IS THIS INCREASINGLY A DIVIDEND PLAYAKIN TO A BOND THAT YOU'RE ACTUALLY GETTING THE POTENTIALFOR 6% YIELD? STUART: IF I WAS A BOND, I WOULD WANTTO BE A STOCK.

I THINK YOU'VE GOT IT BACKWARDS.THE DIVIDENDS ARE REALLY COMING UP AS INTERESTING.META GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE'S ATTENTION.THEY INTRODUCED A SMALL YIELD DIVIDEND.THAT INCREASE THE S&P 500 EVIDENT BY ALMOST $.60 BYITSELF. THE DIVIDEND STORY IS COMINGINTO PLAY, PARTICULARLY WITH YIELDS LOWER.PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT EQUITIES AND WONDERING WHERE CAN IREPLICATE THAT CASH YIELD? JONATHAN:WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THE JEFF.

BEZOS'S SCHOOL OF THOUGHT,OFFLOADING $2 MILLION OF AMAZON SHARES LAST WEEK? STUART:MAYBE IT SHOULD PAY A DIVIDEND. JONATHAN:THE FIRST TIME HE SOLD A STOCK SINCE 2021. STUART: MAYBE HE WANTED TO DO THE SUPERBOWL AND TAYLOR SWIFT THE SAME WEEKEND AND THAT TAKES CASH.JONATHAN: STUART WILL STICK WITH US.HERE ARE THE SCORES FOR YOU ON THE S&P 500. TOTALLY UNCHANGED.CPI TOMORROW MORNING. THE TWO-YEAR DOWN A COUPLE OFBASIS POINTS.

10 YEAR, DOWN ABOUT TWO BASISPOINTS. HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEFWITH DANI BURGER. DANI: U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY LLOYD AUSTINHAS BEEN HOSPITALIZED FOR THE SECOND TIME IN A MONTH.THE PENTAGON CHIEF WAS ADMITTED SUNDAY WITH AN APPARENT BLADDERISSUE. THE DEPUTY DEFENSE SECRETARYHAS TAKEN OVER THE SECRETARY'S FUNCTIONS AND DUTIES.THE HEALTH SCARE COMES WEEKS AFTER AUSTIN WAS CRITICIZED FORFAILING TO DISCLOSE THAT HE HAD BEEN HOSPITALIZED ON NEW YEAR'SDAY FOR COMPLICATIONS FROM.

PROSTATE CANCER SURGERY.DEVON BACK ENERGY WILL BY ENDEAVOR ENERGY, A DEAL VALUEDAT $26 BILLION. THE COMPANY WILL FUND THE DEALTHROUGH SHARES AND $8 MILLION IN CASH.THE DEAL MARKS THE LATEST WAVE OF CONSOLIDATIONS IN THE ENERGYSECTOR AFTER EXXON AND CHEVRON MADE MAJOR ACQUISITIONS OVERTHE LAST TWO MONTHS. MONDAY MIGHT BE A DRAG ONPRODUCTIVITY. AROUND 60 MILLION PEOPLE WILLSTILL — WILL SKIP WORK TODAY, WHILE A THIRD WILL BE LESSPRODUCTIVE THAN USUAL.

SOME SOLUTIONS TO THE SUPERBOWL FLEW INVOLVE HAVING THE MATCH PLAYED ON SATURDAY ORDELAYED A WEEK TO LINE UP WITH THE PRESIDENTS' DAY HOLIDAY.JONATHAN: I STILL DON'T KNOW WHY IT ISNOT DELAYED. JUST DELAY IT A WEEKEND ANDTHEN YOU CAN HAVE MONDAY OFF ANYWAY. LISA:I THINK PEOPLE JUST SORT OF ASSUME.IT'S LIKE CHINESE NEW YEAR. CARNIVAL IN BRAZIL. JONATHAN: I THINK I WAS ONE OF TWO PEOPLETHAT WAS WATCHING THE GOLF ON.

TV. EVERYONE ELSE IS WATCHINGFOOTBALL. UP NEXT, ISRAEL LAUNCHING MOREAIRSTRIKES IN RAFAH. >> VICTORY IS WITHIN REACH.IT HAS TO BE UNDERSTOOD. VICTORY WILL BE THE BEST THINGTHAT WILL HAPPEN NOT ONLY FOR ISRAEL BUT FOR THE PALESTINIANSTHEMSELVES. I CAN'T SEE A FUTURE FOR THEPALESTINIANS OR PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST IF HAMAS ISVICTORIOUS. JONATHAN: THAT CONVERSATION IS COMING UPNEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪.

JONATHAN:REPUBLICAN PROVINCIAL CANDIDATE NIKKI HALEY — PRESIDENT SHALLCANDIDATE NIKKI HALEY — PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NIKKIHALEY ABOUT 15 MINUTES AWAY ON BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE.TOTALLY UNCHANGED ON THE S&P 500. CRUDE IS LOWER.UNDER SURVEILLANCE, ISRAEL LAUNCHING MORE AIRSTRIKES INRAFAH. >> THOSE WHO SAY THAT UNDER NOCIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD WE ENTER RAFAH ARE BASICALLY SAYING LOSETHE WAR AND KEEP — AND KEEP.

HAMAS THERE.VICTORY IS WITHIN REACH. VICTORY WILL BE THE BEST THINGTHAT WILL HAPPEN NOT ONLY FOR ISRAEL BUT FOR THE PALESTINIANSTHEMSELVES. I CAN'T SEE A FUTURE FOR THEPALESTINIANS OR PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST IF HAMAS ISVICTORIOUS. JONATHAN: ISRAEL LAUNCHING ADDITIONALAIRSTRIKES IN RAFAH, DESPITE PUSHBACK FROM WORLD LEADERS.PRESENT BIDEN URGING NETANYAHU TO DO MORE TO PROTECT CIVILIANSAYING QUOTE, A MILITARY OPERATION IN RAFAH SHOULD NOTPROCEED WITHOUT A CREDIBLE AND.

EXECUTE A PLAN.THE EU EXPRESSING CONCERNS, SAYING RESUMING NEGOTIATIONS TOFREE HOSTAGES AND'S FIT — AND SUSPEND HOSTILITIES IS THE ONLYWAY TO AVERT BLOODSHED. THE ISRAELI LEADER SAYS THAT WEARE VERY CLOSE TO VICTORY. VICTORY IS WITHIN SIGHT.DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT? >> IF YOU JUDGE VICTORY BY THETHREE RULES OF THE ISRAELI DEFENSE FORCE IN THE FIRST FEWDAYS OF OCTOBER WHICH IS TO DESTROY HAMAS'S MILITARYINFRASTRUCTURE, I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THE ISRAELIS ARENOT ON THE VERGE OF WHAT YOU.

AND I WOULD CONSIDER ACONVENTIONAL VICTORY. WHAT THEY MANAGED TO DO,PROVIDED A HUGE SHOW OF SUPPORT FOR A BELEAGUERED PRIMEMINISTER TO GIVE HIM ADDITIONAL INCENTIVE, PUSHBACK AGAINSTPRESIDENT BIDEN AND I THINK IT DEMONSTRATES HIS VIEW THAT THELONGER THE ISRAELIS CAN OPERATE IN RAFAH, THE READER THECHANCES THEY WILL DESTROY HAMAS'S BATTALIONS AND PERHAPSEVEN FREE SOME HOSTAGES. ANNMARIE:PRESIDENT BIDEN WANTS TO SEE A CREDIBLE AND EXECUTABLE PLANFOR THE SAFETY OF THOSE.

PALESTINIANS WHO HAVE TAKENREFUGE IN RAFAH. HOW DOES ISRAEL DO THIS WITHOUTHARMING CIVILIANS? LAST NIGHT WE HAVE ALREADY SEENTHAT IS NOT POSSIBLE. AARON: YOU ARE DEALING WITH GAZA,ROUGHLY TWICE THE SIZE OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA WITH APOPULATION DENSITY OF 20,000 HUMANS PER SQUARE MILE.YOU KNOW HAVE 1.4 MILLION HUMANS SANDWICHED IN AN EIGHTHOF THE AREA OF GAZA, AND A POPULATION DENSITY OF ANYWHEREFROM 120,000 HUMANS PER SQUARE MILE. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE THEISRAELIS EVACUATING 1.4 MILLION.

PEOPLE.THEY SEEM TO BELIEVE THERE IS AN AREA WEST OF RAFAH, ROUGHLYFOUR MILES ALONG THE COAST. I'VE BEEN THERE, IT'S ABOUT SIXMILES LONG. I DON'T THINK THAT'S GOING TOANSWER THE MIDDLE. IT'S CLEAR THE ISRAELIS AREPRESSING HAMAS AND WE WILL SEE. THE CIA DIRECTOR IS GOING TOCAIRO TO RESUME NEGOTIATIONS. MAYBE HAMAS WILL BE UNDERPRESSURE FOR PRISONER RELEASE BY DON'T PICK IT IS WITH THEPRIME MINISTER WANTS. THAT'S GOING TO INVOLVE VERYPAINFUL CONCESSIONS WHICH COULD.

STRAIN HIS RIGHT-WING COALITION.ANNMARIE: WHERE DOES THIS LIVE — LEAVEEGYPT? HOW HAD RISK IS THE 1979 PEACETREATY BETWEEN EGYPT AND ISRAEL, GIVEN THE FACT THAT IFISRAEL WERE TO DO THIS, THEY WOULD HAVE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNTOF TROOPS ON THAT BORDER WHICH WOULD TECHNICALLY BREAK THEPACT? AARON: THE EGYPTIANS HAVE THREATENEDPUBLICLY TO SUSPEND THE TREATY. THE EGYPTIANS SAID IT IS CLEARTHEY DO NOT WANT A LARGE NUMBER OF PALESTINIANS AS REFUGEES ORREGULAR CITIZENS BEING PUSHED.

IN. IT IS SOMETHING THE EGYPTIANGOVERNMENT IS NOT WANT ANY PART IN.HAMAS BEGAN AS AN OFFSHOOT OF THE EGYPTIAN BROTHERHOOD.THE ISRAELIS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE A PRETTY IMPORTANTCALCULATION HERE. WHETHER OR NOT THEY ARE PREPARED TO RISK U.S.RELATIONS WITH ISRAEL AND CERTAINLY EGYPTIAN RELATIONS,IF THE — IF THEY MOUNT A MASSIVE CAMPAIGN IN RAFAH.

LISA:I'M CURIOUS HOW YOU WOULD VIEW IT. DO YOU THINK IT HAS BEENSUCCESSFUL? WHERE HAS IT FALLEN SHORT?AARON: WE HAVE TO ACCEPT ONE BASICTROOP — TRUTH THAT IS SO OBVIOUS IT ESCAPES PEOPLE.THE TWO MAJOR COMBATANTS, ISRAEL AND HAMAS HAVE DRIVENTHIS CONFLICT FROM THE BEGINNING.THEY DETERMINE THE TRAJECTORY. THEY DETERMINE WHETHER IT ISGOING TO INTENSIFY OR DE-ESCALATE.THE ROLE OF EXTERNAL ACTORS.

EVEN THE UNITED STATES ISIMPORTANT, BUT I'M NOT SURE THE U.S. IS CAPABLE OF FUNDAMENTALLYALTERING THE CONFLICT. WITH BOTH AND HAMAS AND ISRAEL,FOR HAMAS IT IS CLEARLY EXISTENTIAL BUT ON THE ISRAELISIDE, THIS IS A CORE NATIONAL INTEREST AND DESPITE THE FACTTHAT YOU HAVE THE MOST RIGHT-WING GOVERNMENT INISRAEL'S HISTORY, THE MAJORITY OF THE PUBLIC SHARES — I THINKTHE AXIS OF RESISTANCE IS BACKED BY IRAN, A PRO-IRANIANMILITIA TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ISRAEL IN GAZA TO SCORE POINTSAND TO MAKE TROUBLE WHERE THEY.

CAN. I DON'T THINK THERE IS ASOLUTION FOR THE REGIONALIZATION OF THISCONFLICT. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO PREVENT, IFTHE U.S. CAN, A MAJOR REGIONAL WAR WHICHWOULD LEAD TO A DIRECT CONFRONTATION BETWEEN ISRAELAND IRAN, BALLISTIC MISSILES, DIRECT ATTACKS ON IRANIANTERRITORIES, THE GULF STATES WOULD BE INVOLVED, YOU WOULDSEE PLUNGING FINANCIAL MARKETS, RISING OIL PRICES.I'M NOT PREDICTING WE CAN GET THERE BUT IT IS A CONCERN ANDIT IS TO BE AVOIDED AT ALL.

COSTS. JONATHAN:IT IS CERTAINLY THE CONCERN. WE HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE.AARON DAVID MILLER. WHAT COULD HAPPEN TO MARKETS?THIS IS THE STORY. THE WEEKEND OF OCTOBER 7,TERRORIST ATTACKS IN ISRAEL. CRUDE CLOSED THAT WEEKEND $82.79. $76 ON CRUDE THIS MORNING. LISA:PEOPLE CAME ON AND SET US THEY COULD SEE OIL AT $100 A BARREL.U.S. PRODUCTION HAS OVERWHELMED ANYPOTENTIAL SHORTFALLS ANYWHERE ELSE. THE GOAL OF EVERYONE IS TOAVOID A LARGER CONFLICT.

EVERYONE KEEPS SAYING THAT.IF YOU START TO BACK OUT, IT SEEMS LIKE THE CHANCES OF SOMESORT OF CESSATION OF SHIPMENTS OF OIL SEEM SOMEWHAT REMOTE.OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON FRIDAY, THERE WAS A POP IN OIL PRICESAND THERE WAS A THOUGHT THAT THE U.S.COULD TAKE GREATER ACTION IN SANCTIONING IRAN. JONATHAN:STUART KAISER OF CITI IS WITH US. HOW INSULATED ARE U.S.MARKETS FROM THE CONFLICT TAKING PLACE OVERSEAS? STUART:I THINK A LOT OF INVESTORS IN THE U.S.

ARE SAYING ONCE THE PRICE OFOIL RISES MEANINGFULLY, I WILL COMPARTMENTALIZE TORT IS GOINGON. IF HE WERE TO SEE OIL RISE INTHE 80'S OR 90'S, PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO DO A PROCESS OF GOINGBACK AND READING THE HEADLINES AND MAYBE THEY WERE NOT PAYINGATTENTION AND THOSE HEADLINES ARE NOT GOING TO LOOK FRIENDLY.FOR NOW, IT HAS BEEN TREATED AS AN OIL TRADE — I THINK PEOPLEWANT TO KEEP THEM AT ARMS LENGTH. ANNMARIE:I ALWAYS COME BACK TO THE QUESTION OF HOW LOW WOULD OILBE IF THERE WAS NONE OF THIS.

HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. STUART:IT'S A GREAT QUESTION. THERE WAS A PERIOD OF TIMEIMMEDIATELY AFTER THE INVASION WHERE YOU SAW OIL ALL THE TILTHE WAS QUITE HIGH. A LOT OF THAT HAS COME BACK OUT.IT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE U.S. PRODUCING, THAT WE WILL HAVELOWER OIL PRICES IF NOT FOR WHAT IS GOING ON.THE PRICE OF OIL IS AT A LEVEL THAT MOST PEOPLE ARE SAYING ISMANAGEABLE FOR THE ECONOMY. THAT IS HOW WE ARE PROCEEDING.LISA: AND ALWAYS MAKE ME SCRATCH MYHEAD WHEN PEOPLE SAY THERE WAS.

A LOT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK THATWE HAVE TO PRICE AND. HOW? WE ARE TALKING ABUT A POTENTIALWAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST, A POTENTIAL CALLING — APOTENTIAL CONTENTIOUS PROVINCIAL CONTEST –PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST. STUART: PEOPLE SEEM MORE CONCERNED WITHTHE SITUATION IN CHINA THAN THE MIDDLE EAST. TECHNICALLYSPEAKING YOU DO GET SOME RISK PRICED IN.I THINK WHAT PEOPLE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW IS THAT GOT SOME SORTOF DEEP MIDDLE EAST TAIL RISK AND OTHERWISE THEY AREOPERATING UNDER NORMAL.

CONDITIONS.WHAT PEOPLE REALIZE LAST YEAR IS THAT YOU HAVE — IS THAT IFYOU OBSESS OVER THE RISKS, YOU STAY OUT OF THE MARKET AND THEPOTENTIAL THAT THE MARKET WILL RUN AWAY FROM YOU. JONATHAN:EUROPE IS A FANTASTIC EXAMPLE OF THAT. PLENTY OF REASONS TO BECONCERNED ABOUT EUROPE. WAR TAKING PLACE IN UKRAINE, ASLOWDOWN IN CHINA. LET'S TALK ABOUT HOW WRONG WEALL ARE ABOUT EVERYTHING. HAVE I TOLD YOU HOW MUCH CHINAWOULD DISAPPOINT REOPENING, HOW MUCH THEY WOULD UNDER DELIVERTHE STIMULUS 70 PEOPLE.

ANTICIPATED WHICH HAD THE DAXUP 20% YEAR-TO-DATE LAST YEAR. LISA:IT DOES NOT REALLY COMPLY WITH THESE MACRO IDEAS, WHICH IS THEREASON WHY PEOPLE ARE KIND OF IN THIS BLAZE. DOESN'T IT FEEL LIKE PEOPLE AREKIND OF IN A BIT OF A MALAISE RIGHT NOW? STUART:JOHN OBVIOUSLY DID NOT BUY THE DAX LAST YEAR.I THINK THE MARKET IS STILL WORKING THROUGH SOME SCARTISSUE FROM WHAT HAPPENED THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS AND THEINFLATION SPIKE.

IT IS DEATHLY CAP PEOPLE OUT OFTHE MARKETS OR IN THE MARKETS THAT ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE.JONATHAN: STUART KAISER OF CITI, GOOD TOSEE YOU. COMING UP, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NIKKIHALEY AS SHE CONTINUES CHALLENGING FRONT-RUNNER DONALDTRUMP FOR THE NOMINATION. THAT CONVERSATION JUST AROUNDTHE CORNER. YIELDS ARE A LITTLE BIT LOWERON A 10 YEAR, DOWN TWO BASIS POINTS. JONATHAN:WE ARE ABOUT TWO HOURS AWAY.

FROM THE OPENING BELL IN NEWYORK CITY. TOTALLY UNCHANGED ON THE S&P.UNCHANGED ON THE NASDAQ AS WELL. HERE IS THE POLITICS.DONALD TRUMP ON THE CUSP OF CLINCHING THE GOP NOMINATIONAFTER WINS IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.NIKKI HALEY LOOKING TO CLOSE THE GAP IN HER HOME STATE OFSOUTH CAROLINA. THE FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR JOINS US NOW.THANK YOU FOR CATCHING UP WITH BLOOMBERG THIS MORNING.I'D LIKE TO GO STRAIGHT TO SOME OF THE POLLS BECAUSE OF THINKYOU FIND YOURSELF IN A PECULIAR.

POSITION.HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH THE SITTING PRESIDENT, YOU DOMINATE HIM.WITHIN YOUR OWN PARTY, YOU ARE STRUGGLING.THE LATEST POLL FROM THE WASHINGTON POST SHOWS 58% OFSOUTH CAROLINA VOTERS SUPPORT TRUMP COMPARED TO 32% FOR YOU.MY QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH DAYLIGHT IS THERE BETWEEN WHATYOUR PARTY WANTS AND WHAT YOU THINK IS GOOD FOR IT? NIKKI:FIRST OF ALL, I'M PROUD OF WHAT WE'VE DONE.WE HAD 14 PEOPLE IN THE RACE. WE'VE DEFEATED A DOZEN.I'VE GOT ONE MORE TO CATCH UP.

TO. EVERYONE SAID WE WOULDN'T BEABLE TO DO IT. WE STARTED WITH 2% IN IOWA ANDWE GOT UP TO 20%. WE WENT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE ANDGOT 43% OF THE VOTE. WE HAVE INCREASED 25 POINTS INTHE LAST THREE WEEKS. THIS RACE IS STILL VERY MUCHMOVING. WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TOCLOSE THAT GAP IN SOUTH CAROLINA, AS WE HEAD TOMICHIGAN AND SUPER TUESDAY. 70% OF AMERICANS DON'T WANT TOSEE A TRUMP-BIDEN REMATCH. I'M PUSHING THROUGH TO MAKESURE THEY HAVE A VOICE.

THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE TO DO.YOU'VE GOT A DECISION WHETHER TO KEEP MORE OF THE SAME ORWHETHER TO GO IN A NEW DIRECTION.MORE THE SAME IS NOT JUST JOE BIDEN.MORE OF THE SAME IS DONALD TRUMP.WE HAVE TO STOP THE CHAOS, STOP THE DIVISION.WE HAVE TO GET OUR DOMESTIC ISSUES ON TRACK.WE HAVE TO GET OUR NATIONAL SECURITY ON TRACK.WE'VE GOT TO GET THE AMERICAN FAMILIES BACK ON TRACK.JONATHAN:.

LET'S KICK OFF WITH SOMEFOREIGN POLICY. YOU VOICED OPPOSITION TOTRUMP'S REMARKS OVER NATO OVER THE WEEKEND.I'M STRUGGLING TO FIND A HANDFUL OF REPUBLICAN SENATORSWHO AGREE WITH YOU. ARE THERE ANY WHO THINK HE ISNOT POPULAR? NIKKI: IT IS NOT TO GO AND BLAME THEVOTERS. NOT TO GO AND BLAME THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.I'VE ALWAYS SAID IT IS IMPORTANT FOR JOE BIDEN ANDCONGRESS TO TELL THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WHY THEY SHOULD CARE, TOGIVE THEM THE OTHER SIDE.

YOU DON'T HEAR THAT.THE OTHER SIDE IS THAT NATO HAS BEEN A 75 YEAR SUCCESS STORY.WE'VE NOT HAD A WAR IN THE REGION.RUSSIA HAS NEVER INVADED A NATO COUNTRY.THEY'VE INVADED GEORGIA, UKRAINE, PULLED OVA. — MOLDOVA.THE LAST THING WE ARE GOING TO DO IS SIDE WITH A THUG.PUTIN KILLS HIS OPPONENTS. HE HAS ARRESTED — YOU HAS BEENSITTING IN JAIL FOR DOING JOURNALISM.THIS IS A MAN WHO HAS WANTED TO DESTROY AMERICA AND DEFEATAMERICA FOR YEARS.

I DEBT WITH RUSSIA EVERY SINGLEDAY. IT'S A MISTAKE FOR TRUMP TO SIDE WITH PUTIN OVER OUR ALLIES.WE NEED FRIENDS AFTER 9/11. WE BETTER A MEMORY THAT.IT TAKES A FRIEND TO GET A FRIEND. ANNMARIE:I'M SURE YOU'VE SEEN THE COMMENTS FROM THE LIKES OFLINDSEY GRAHAM AND MARCO RUBIO. WHEN IT COMES TO NATO, DO YOUFEEL LIKE YOU ARE OUT OF STEP WITH MEMBERS OF YOUR OWN PARTY?NIKKI: THE GOAL IS NEVER TO FOLLOW THEPOLLS.

THE GOAL IS TO MAKE SURE YOUCOMMUNICATE WHAT IS RIGHT. WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT WEHAVE AN ALLIANCE THAT IS STRONG. OUR WHOLE GOAL IS TO PREVENTWAR. THAT'S THE MAIN THING. LOOK AT RUSSIA RIGHT NOW.THE REASON PEOPLE SHOULD CARE ABOUT UKRAINE IS BECAUSE IT'S APRO-AMERICAN FREEDOM LOVING COUNTRY.LISTEN TO WHAT PUTIN SAID. HE SAID ONCE HE TAKES UKRAINE,POLAND AND THE BALTICS OUR NEXT. THOSE ARE NATO COUNTRIES.THAT IMMEDIATELY PUTS AMERICA AT WAR.THIS IS ABOUT PREVENTING WAR.

THIS IS ABOUT BRINGING MOREFRIENDS IN, NOT PUSHING FRIENDS AWAY.DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T GET THAT. THAT IS WHAT WILL — THAT ISWHAT WILL CREEP US INTO WAR. OUR GOAL IS TO NOT GO AND BLAMETHE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR FEELING THE WAY THEY DO.IT'S TO MAKE SURE WE GET OUR MESSAGE OUT ON WHY THEY SHOULDCARE AND HOW THIS IS IN THE BEST INTEREST OF AMERICA.FOR THOSE POLITICIANS WHO ARE REFUSING TO SAY THAT, THAT'S ADISSERVICE TO THE PEOPLE THEY SERVE. ANNMARIE:IF THE GOAL IS TO BRING MORE.

FRIENDS IN, IT WOULD YOU AGREEPRESIDENT BIDEN HAS DONE A GOOD JOB EXPANDING THE ALLIANCE?NIKKI: I THINK YES, HE UNDERSTANDS THEIMPORTANCE OF NATO BUT HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THEIMPORTANCE OF PREVENTING WAR. HE COULD HAVE PREVENTED PUTINGOING INTO UKRAINE. ALL THIS WOULDN'T HAVE HAPPENEDIF WE DID NOT HAVE THE DEBACLE IN AFGHANISTAN.WE LEFT THE AIR FORCE BASE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WITHOUTTELLING OUR ALLIES WHO STOOD SHOULDER TO SHOULDER WITH USFOR DECADES BECAUSE WE ASKED.

THEM TO BE THERE.THINK ABOUT WHAT THAT TOLD OUR FRIENDS.MORE IMPORTANTLY, THICK ABOUT WHAT THAT SAID TO OUR ENEMIES.NO SURPRISE THAT PUTIN WENT AND INVADED UKRAINE.NO SURPRISE THAT WE ARE SEEING IRAN PUSH TERRORIST PROXIESAROUND THE WORLD. NO SURPRISE THAT HAMAS INVADEDISRAEL. NO SURPRISE THAT CHINA IS DOINGINTIMIDATION OVER TAIWAN. THEY SEE THE U.S.AS WEAK AND THEY DON'T TRUST IT AND THE FACT THAT WE AREWATCHING JOE BIDEN IN DECLINE.

IS NOT HELPING THAT.RUSSIA, CHINA AND IRAN ARE WATCHING EVERY DAY, THE DECLINEOF JOE BIDEN. THIS IS BIGGER THAN A PARTY.THIS IS ABOUT THE FACT THAT WE HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THENATIONAL INTERESTS OF OUR COUNTRY.THAT IS WHEN YOU PUT ALL OF THIS ASIDE AND SAY WHAT DO WENEED? WE DON'T NEED 280-YEAR-OLD CANDIDATES RUNNING FORPRESIDENT. WE NEED SOMEONE WHO CAN SERVEEIGHT YEARS, DISCIPLINED, STRONG, NO VOLATILITY, NODRAMA, NO VINDICTIVENESS, JUST.

GET THE JOB DONE. ANNMARIE:WHEN IT COMES TO MENTAL ACUITY, I KNOW YOU WANT TO MAKE ASTANDARD THAT THEY HAVE TO TAKE THESE TESTS.YOU SAID YOU'RE WILLING TO TAKE THESE TESTS.DO YOU EXPECT BIDEN OR TRUMP TO TAKE A MENTAL ACUITY TESTBEFORE NOVEMBER? NIKKI: I EXPECT THAT IF YOU LOOK ATTHE FACT — THIS IS JUST A FACT. THERE IS A REASON PILOTS CAN'TFLY AFTER THE AGE OF 65. THERE IS A REASON YOU HAVE TOGET OUT OF THE MILITARY AFTER LIMITED AGE.THERE ARE A LOT OF INDUSTRIES.

THAT DO THAT BECAUSE IT ISFACT, YOU ARE IN DECLINE. LOOK AT JOE BIDEN TWO YEARS AGO.VERY DIFFERENT THAN WHAT YOU SEE TODAY.LOOK AT DONALD TRUMP IN 2016. VERY DIFFERENT THAN WHAT YOUSEE TODAY. DONALD TRUMP THE OTHER DAY WENTON 3, 4 TIMES SAYING I SHOULD HAVE HAD SECURITY AT THECAPITOL ON JANUARY 6. I NEVER HAD A JOB IN D.C.I WAS NEVER IN CHARGE OF SECURITY. HE IS CONFUSED.I DON'T CARE IF YOU DO MENTAL COMPETENCY TESTS FOR 50 AND UPTHESE ARE PEOPLE MAKING.

DECISIONS ON OUR NATIONALSECURITY. THESE ARE PEOPLE MAKINGDECISIONS ON THE FUTURE OF OUR ECONOMY.WE NEED TO KNOW THEY ARE AT THE TOP OF THEIR GAME.THIS IS NOT ABOUT WHETHER YOU LIKE THEM OR THEY HOLD THE BABYWELL. THIS IS ABOUT THE FACT THAT WEHAVE SERIOUS ISSUES IN OUR COUNTRY.OUR COUNTRY IS IN DISARRAY AND THE WORLD IS ON FIRE AND WECAN'T GO THROUGH FOUR MORE YEARS OF CHAOS. LISA:.

YOU POINT OUT A NUMBER OFGAFFES FROM FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP AND CURRENT PRESIDENTBIDEN. AT THE SAME TIME, THEY ARESTILL BEATING YOU IN THE POLLS. EVEN WHEN IT COMES TO HANDLINGTHE ECONOMY, YOU ARE TRAILING BIDEN. WHY IS THAT? NIKKI: IF YOU LOOK AT THE GENERALELECTION POLLS, YOU SEE THAT I DO DEFEAT BIDEN BY ALMOST 17POINTS. YOU CAN LOOK AT THE MARQUETTEPOLL THAT CAME OUT LAST WEEK. I DEFEAT BIDEN IN WISCONSIN BY15 POINTS.

TRUMP DOESN'T DEFEAT BIDEN ANDWE HAVE TO LOOK AT THE FACT THAT IF WE GO IN ALL THE SWINGSTATES, I DEFEAT BIDEN AND IF I WIN BY DOUBLE DIGITS, THATMEANS YOU GO INTO D.C. WITH A MANDATE, A MANDATE TOSTOP THE WASTEFUL SPENDING AND GET OUR ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK,TO GET OUR KIDS READING AGAIN AND GO BACK TO THE BASICS INEDUCATION, A MANDATE TO SECURE OUR BORDERS WITH NO MOREEXCUSES, A MANDATE FOR LAW AND ORDER IN OUR CITIES AND AMANDATE OF A STRONGER AMERICA THAT PREVENTS WARS THAT WE CANALL BE PROUD OF.

THAT'S THE GOAL OF WHERE WE ARETRYING TO GO. WE'VE GOT TO GET PAST THISPARTISAN, HIM OR HIM. BOTH OF THOSE MEN, YOU LOOK ATIT, WHETHER IT IS THESE COURT CASES WHERE THEY HAD NATIONALSECURITY DOCUMENTS THEY SHOULDN'T HAVE HAD.IF YOU'VE EVER HAD A JOB THAT DEALT WITH ANY SORT OF SECURITYDOCUMENTS, YOU KNOW THAT THEY ARE HANDLED WITH EXTREME CARE.THE FACT THAT BOTH OF THESE MEN WERE SO ARROGANT TO HAVE THAT,THOSE DOCUMENTS DRAGGING AROUND BEHIND THEM OR IN A GARAGETELLS YOU THIS IS MORE ABOUT.

THEM THAN THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.WE'VE GOT TO GET THIS BACK ON THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AND STOPGETTING IT ON THESE TWO MEN WHO ARE REFUSING TO GIVE UP THEIRPOWER. JONATHAN: WE CAN FOCUS ON THAT RIGHT NOW.YOU MENTIONED THE ECONOMY. LAST SUMMER YOU SPOKE TO THISNETWORK ABOUT WAYS TO COMBAT PRICING DEBT.MY COLLEAGUE ASKED YOU HOW WOULD YOU — YOUR ANSWER, ANYCANDIDATE THAT SAYS THEY ARE NOT GOING TO TOUCHENTITLEMENTS, THEY WILL GO INTO OFFICE AND LEAVE AMERICABANKRUPT.

ONE OPTION YOU OFFERED WHICHCHANGE RETIREMENT AGE TO REFLECT LIFE EXPECTANCY.YOUR ORIGINAL ANSWER IS NOW PART OF TRUMP CAMPAIGN ADS.IS THAT STILL SOMETHING YOU WANT TO DO? NIKKI:THAT IS NOT WHAT I SAID. WHAT I SAID IS WE SHOULD NOTEVER TAKE AWAY FROM THOSE WHO HAVE INVESTED IN AND THOSE WHOHAVE BEEN PROMISED. AMERICA SHOULD KEEP THEIRPROMISES. I SAID WE SHOULD GO AND CHANGETHE RULES FOR THOSE IN THEIR 20'S. THAT'S THE PROBLEM.LIKE MY KIDS.

FOR THEM WE SHOULD CHANGE THERETIREMENT AGE TO LIFE EXPECTANCY INSTEAD OFCOST-OF-LIVING INCREASES. WE SHOULD INCREASE IS BASED ONINFLATION. WE SHOULD CAP THE BENEFITS ONTHE MEGA-WEALTHY AND WE SHOULD EXPAND MEDICARE ADVANTAGE PLANS.WHAT DONALD TRUMP WANTS TO DO, HE DOES NOT WANT TO TOUCH IT SOTHAT WHEN SOCIAL SECURITY GOES BANKRUPT IN 10 YEARS, EVERYONEGETS A 24% CUT ACROSS THE BOARD. THAT'S NOT HOW YOU HANDLE APROBLEM. THE THING YOU DO IS YOU GET INFRONT OF THE PROBLEM.

WHEN WE MAKE THOSE CHANGES,THAT IS WHEN YOU START FOCUSING ON WHAT IT TAKES TO MAKE SURENOT ONLY DOES EVERYONE WHO'S PAID IN KEEP WHAT THEY GET, BUTYOU MAKE SURE THAT OUR KIDS WILL ACTUALLY HAVE SOMETHINGWHEN THE TIME COMES FOR THEM AS WELL.WE HAVE TO TAKE THAT SERIOUSLY. WE HAVE TO STOP HAVING CONGRESSRAID THE SOCIAL SECURITY ACCOUNTS.RIGHT NOW THEY ARE RAIDING ALL OF THOSE ACCOUNTS INSTEAD OFSTOPPING WASTEFUL SPENDING. STOP THE SPENDING, STOP THEBORROWING, STOP THE PET.

PROJECTS. ANNMARIE:DO YOU STILL THINK 65 IS WAY TOO LOW WHEN IT COMES TORETIREMENT? NIKKI: I THINK IT DEPENDS.WE NEED LOOK — WE NEED TO LOOK AT THE NUMBERS AND SEE WHERE ITSHOULD BE. RIGHT NOW WE DO KNOW THE PEOPLEARE LIVING LONGER. WHAT THE AGE SHOULD BE DEPENDSBUT FOR EVERYONE THAT HAS PAID INTO THE SYSTEM, THE AGE IS 65.THAT WILL STAY 65. FOR THOSE IN THEIR 20'S, THATIS WHERE WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK AND SAY WHAT IS THE RIGHT AGE?WE CAN SOLVE THIS PROBLEM.

PEOPLE DON'T HAVE TO LIVE INFEAR THAT THEY ARE GOING TO LOSE THEIR SOCIAL SECURITY, BUTWE NEED TO BE HONEST WITH THEM. COMMUNICATE TO THEM THAT SOCIALSECURITY WILL GO BANKRUPT IN 10 YEARS, MEDICARE WILL GOBANKRUPT IN EIGHT. LET THEM KNOW THAT WE WILL FINDA WAY TO MAKE SURE THEY KEEP WHAT THEY HAVE TO WE WILL HAVETO MAKE CHANGES GOING FORWARD SO THAT WE CAN START TO MAKESURE THESE THINGS ARE SOLVENT. LISA: JUST CHANGING SOME OF THERESPECTIVE 20-YEAR-OLDS IS NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO CHANGE THEEQUATION FINANCIALLY IN TERMS.

OF MAKING SOCIAL SECURITY MORESUSTAINABLE. WHAT ELSE COULD YOU DO IN THENEAR TERM TO MAKE THIS SUSTAINABLE? NIKKI: RIGHT NOW, JOE BIDEN AND DONALDTRUMP ARE SAYING THEY ARE NOT GOING TO DO ANYTHING WHICHMEANS YOU WILL HAVE A 24% CAP — 24% CUT IN 10 YEARS.AT LEAST I'M WILLING TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT, I'M WILLINGTO TELL THE AMERICAN PEOPLE THE TRUTH THAT THERE IS A PROBLEMAND WE ARE GOING TO FIX IT. YOU ALSO START WITH CUTTING OUTTHE WASTEFUL SPENDING THAT HAS.

HAPPENED FROM REPUBLICANS ANDDEMOCRATS. WE SAW THAT $2.2 TRILLIONCOVERT STIMULUS BILL THAT PASSED WITH NO ACCOUNT ABILITY,THAT HAS NO EXPENDED WELFARE THAT HAS LEFT US WITH 89AMERICANS ON MEDICAID, 40 TRILLION AMERICANS ON FOODSTAMPS. THAT'S A THIRD OF OUR COUNTRY.INSTEAD OF AMERICANS DOUBLING DOWN AND TRYING TO MAKESOMETHING RIGHT, THEY OPEN A PET PROJECTS IN EARMARKS COMEUP PUSHING THROUGH 7000 OF THEM LAST YEAR.YOU'VE GOT TO STOP THAT.

WE ARE GOING TO TAKE AS MANYPROGRAMS IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AS WE CAN AND PASSTHEM DOWN TO THE STATE LEVEL. THAT WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCETHE SIZE OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, BUT IT WILL EMPOWERPEOPLE ON THE GROUND. THINK EDUCATION, WELFARE,HEALTH CARE, MENTAL HEALTH. WHEN YOU CUT THOSE STRINGS ANDALLOW THAT TO GO DOWN TO THE PEOPLE, YOU'RE REDUCING THESIZE OF THE BLOATED GOVERNMENT WE HAVE.EVERYONE LOVES TO TALK ABUT HOW GREAT THE ECONOMY WAS UNDERDONALD TRUMP.

IT SEEMED GREAT, BUT AT WHATCOST? HE PUT US $8 TRILLION IN DEBTIN JUST FOUR YEARS. JOE BIDEN DOUBLED DOWN AND PUTUS EVEN MORE IN DEBT. BUT IS NOT HOW YOU FIX THEECONOMY. THAT IS HOW YOU LEAVE — LEAVEYOUNGER GENERATIONS IN A SITUATION THEY WILL NEVER PULLOUT OF. ANNMARIE: DONALD TRUMP IS TALKING ABOUTHEAVILY TARIFFING CHINESE GOODS. DO YOU SEE THIS AS A VIABLE WAYTO RAISE MONEY? NIKKI: ABSOLUTELY NOT.ALL THAT DOES IS RAISES TAXES.

ON AMERICAN FAMILIES AND SMALLBUSINESSES WE NEED TO BE TAKING CARE OF.IT IS LUDICROUS THAT HE WANTS TO GO AND RAISE THOSE TARIFFSTO EVERYTHING WE IMPORT. THAT'S GOING TO AFFECT AMERICANFAMILIES IN ANYTHING FROM BABY STROLLERS TO APPLIANCES.EVERY AMERICAN FAMILY WILL SEE AT LEAST A $2800 INCREASE INTHEIR TAXES. NOT ONLY THAT, THE ONLY DOES HEWANT TO CUT SOCIAL SECURITY BY 24% IN 10 YEARS, HE WANTED TORAISE THE GAS TAX BY $.25 PER GALLON IN 2018.HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THE VALUE.

OF A TAXPAYER DOLLAR.HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THAT YOU DON'T GO IN DEBT, YOU DON'T TAXTHE AMERICAN PEOPLE, YOU DON'T GO AND TAKE AWAY — TAKE CAREOF BIG CORPORATIONS. YOU TAKE CARE OF SMALLBUSINESSES AND AMERICAN FAMILIES BY MAKING SURE THEYHAVE MORE CASH TO SPEND. THAT'S BEEN WHAT IS LOST NOTONLY IN DONALD TRUMP BUT IN JOE BIDEN AND EVERY MEMBER OFCONGRESS. JONATHAN: GIVEN THAT YOU CONSIDER THAT ATARIFF ON CHINA IS A TAX ON AMERICAN CONSUMERS, WOULD YOUCONSIDER REPEALING EXISTING.

TARIFFS ON CHINESE IMPORTS?NIKKI: CHINA IS DIFFERENT. TRUMP WANTS TO DO TARIFFSACROSS FROM EVERY COUNTRY. CHINA WE HAVE TO DEAL WITHDIFFERENTLY. CHINA HAS BEEN PREPARING FORWAR WITH US FOR YEARS. THAT IS NOT AN EXAGGERATION. THEY'VE BOUGHT 400,000 ACRES OFU.S. SOIL, MOST RECENTLY NEAR AN AIRFORCE BASE WHERE OUR MOST SENSITIVE DRONE DATA IS.THEY ARE STEALING RESEARCH AND SPREADING CHINESE KNUPP –CHINESE PROPAGANDA.

I HAVE CHINESE POLICE STATIONSTHROUGHOUT OUR COUNTRY. A CHINESE SPY BALLOON WAS DOINGSURVEILLANCE OVER OUR COUNTRY, NOW CONNECTED WITH A U.S.INTERNET COMPANY SENDING SURVEILLANCE TO CHINA.THEY ARE BUILDING UP THEIR MILITARY AND THREATENINGAMERICA. WE LOOK AT CHINA, LOOK AT ITTHROUGH A NATIONAL SECURITY LENS.IF CHINA PULLED THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER US TOMORROW, WOULDWE BE READY? THINK ABOUT WHAT HAPPENEDDURING COVID.

EVERYONE WAS TOLD TO WEAR AMASK. WHO MADE THE MASKS? CHINA DID.EVERYONE WAS TOLD TO TAKE A COVID TEST. MADE IN CHINA.GOING TO THE DRUGSTORES RIGHT NOW, ALL THE MEDICATIONS AREMADE IN CHINA. WHAT DO WE DO TO CHANGE THATNARRATIVE, TO MAKE SURE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE NOTDEPENDENT ON CHINA, BUT WE MOVE THAT TRAIT EITHER TO WHERE WEMAKE IT IN AMERICA OR WE GO AND MAKE IT WITH OUR ALLIES AND OURFRIENDS. ANNMARIE: IF YOU THINK THAT NEITHERCANDIDATE WHO ARE THE FRONT.

RUNNERS IS A GOOD OPTION ANDCOULD POTENTIALLY BE HARMFUL FOR THIS COUNTRY, WOULD YOUCONSIDER AN INDEPENDENT RUN IF YOU DON'T WIN THE REPUBLICANNOMINATION? NIKKI: I AM A REPUBLICAN.WE CAN WIN AS A REPUBLICAN. WE ARE CLOSING THE GAP IN SOUTHCAROLINA. WE ARE ON A BUS TO HER NOWWHERE ANYWHERE AND EVERYWHERE, YOU WILL SEE THE NUMBERS AREVERY DIFFERENT. WE HAVE A COUNTRY TO SAVE.WE HAVE ONE CHANCE TO GET IT RIGHT.WE'VE GOT TO LISTEN TO 70% OF.

THE AMERICAN PEOPLE THAT DON'TWANT TRUMP AND BIDEN. YOU DON'T FIX DEMOCRAT CHAOSWITH REPUBLICAN CHAOS. YOU LOOK AT THE FACT THAT BIDENHAS HAD ALL OF THIS DIMINISHED CAPACITY.DEMOCRATS BETTER START LOOKING FOR ANOTHER CANDIDATE.MY PRODUCTION IS THEY WILL. LOOK AT DONALD TRUMP, LOOK ATTHE LOSSES WE HAD JUST THIS LAST WEEK. HE LOST THE BILL ON THE BORDER,HE LOST IMMUNITY FOR HIS COURT CASES WHERE HE SPENT 50 MY ANDDOLLARS IN CAMPAIGN.

CONTRIBUTIONS ON PERSONAL COURTCASES. THE RNC IS BROKE. THE RNC PARTY CHAIR LOST HERJOB. DONALD TRUMP HAS HIS FINGERPRINTS ON ALL OF THAT.THERE IS NO WAY REPUBLICANS DEFEAT JOE BIDEN OR DEMOCRATSWITH CHAOS LIKE THAT. WE HAVE TO GET RID OF, BOTH OFTHEM, GET A NEW GENERATIONAL LEADER AND GET AMERICA BACK ONTRACK. JONATHAN: I EXPECTED THAT PLUG SOMEWHERE.ONE FURTHER QUESTION. THE THRESHOLD FOR YOU TO STAYIN THIS RACE AFTER SOUTH CAROLINA.YOU'VE BEEN TRANSPARENT ABOUT.

THAT. HAS THAT CHANGED? NIKKI:NOT CHANGED AT ALL. WE FEEL THE INTENSITY OF PEOPLECOMING OUT TO VOTE THAT HAVE NEVER VOTED BEFORE.WE FEEL THE FEAR THE PEOPLE HAVE ABOUT THE FACT THAT THISIS WHERE IT COULD END. THINK ABOUT WHAT EVERYONE ISSAYING. THE REPUBLICANS TRIED TO PUSHME OUT AND SAY DONALD TRUMP NEEDED TO BE THE PRESUMPTIVENOMINEE. IF I WERE TO GET OUT TODAY,THAT WOULD BE THE LONGEST GENERAL ELECTION RACE INHISTORY.

WE DON'T DO CORONATIONS INAMERICA. WE ALLOW THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TOVOTE. WE WILL GO INTO SOUTH CAROLINA,WE WILL CLOSE THAT GAP, WE WILL GO INTO MICHIGAN AND SUPERTUESDAY. THIS IS ABOUT MAKING SUREAMERICANS HAVE A CHOICE. IN A GENERAL ELECTION,AMERICANS ARE GIVEN THE CHOICE. IN A PRIMARY, AMERICANS MAKETHEIR CHOICE. JONATHAN: WE LOOK FORWARD TO CATCHING UPWITH YOU AFTER THE PEOPLE OF SOUTH CAROLINA MAKE THEIRCHOICE.

NIKKI HALEY, THANK YOU, THEFORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR AND PRESIDENTIALHOPEFUL FOR THE REPUBLICANS. ANNMARIE:SHE'S GOING TO HAVE TO GET THAT BUS OUT ALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINABECAUSE SHE IS TRAILING TRUMP BY 30 POINTS.YOU SEE IT IN POLL AFTER POLL, AMERICANS DON'T WANT A REMATCHOF 2020. JONATHAN: I THINK IT IS A REALLY PECULIARPOSITION TO BE IN, THE DOMINATE THE SITTING PRESIDENT AND THENTO BE SO FAR BEHIND IN HER HOME STATE AGAINST THE FORMERPRESIDENT. LISA:.

WHICH IS WHY IT IS INTERESTINGTO ME THAT SHE IS STILL A LOYAL REPUBLICAN DESPITE THE FACTTHAT THE PARTY IS BASICALLY REJECTING HER. JONATHAN:YOU ASKED THE QUESTION, WILL YOU MAKE AN INDEPENDENT RUN ANDSHE SAID NO, SHE IS A REPUBLICAN.ARE YOU THE REPUBLICAN THE PARTY HAS BECOME?WE'VE GOT THE TICKET QUICK COMMERCIAL BREAK.WE WILL CONTINUE THIS CONVERSATION.EQUITIES ON THE S&P 500 TOTALLY UNCHANGED. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

JONATHAN:LIVE FROM NEW YORK CITY, GOOD MORNING.EQUITIES UNCHANGED ON THE S&P 500. EQUITIES GOING ABSOLUTELYNOWHERE. TREASURY YIELDS TOUCHINGYEAR-TO-DATE HIGHS. >> THE UNDERLYING DYNAMICPOINTS TO A HIGHER YIELD. WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEEA TEST AT .450. THE HYATT LAST YEAR WAS 5%. DO WE GO NORTH OF 2 — DO WE GONORTH OF 4.50? JONATHAN:INVESTORS QUESTION WHETHER THE.

ECONOMY WILL REQUIRE AS MANYCUTS AS THE MARKET IS PRICING IN. GENNADIY OF TD SECURITIES –GENNADIY OF GOLD — GENNADIY GOLDBERG OF TD SECURITIES.WHILE THE MARCH MEETING IS NOT COMPLETE DISCARDED, CHAIRPOWELL ALL THE CLOSE THE DOOR ON THE POSSIBILITY.WE CONTINUE TO JUDGE THE MAY FOMC MEETING AS THE MOST LIKELYFOR THE FED TO START EASING. GENNADIY GOLDBERG JOINS US NOWWITH MORE. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHY IT MIGHTNOT BE JUNE OR LATER. GENNADIY: GENERALLY, I DON'T THINK THEYPARTICULARLY CARE.

IF YOU ASK POWELL IN REALITY,DO YOU CARE WHETHER IT IS MAY, JUNE OR JULY, HE WILL GIVE YOUA QUIZZICAL LOOK AND SAY WE DON'T CARE AS LONG AS WE START.THEY KNOW — WE KNOW THEY HAVE TO START RELATIVELY SOONBECAUSE RATES ARE QUITE HIGH. YOU'LL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERTIGHTENING IF NOTHING ELSE CHANGES.YOU WILL PUBLISH SEE A CUTTING CYCLE START IN MAY.THEY SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE SPECIFICALLY ONINFLATION AND THAT IS THE KEY HERE, THE INFLATION SIDE. LISA:I KEEP GOING BACK TO THIS, AT.

THE FED DOESN'T CUT RATES ATALL THIS YEAR, YOU COULD SEE EQUITIES EKING OUT A GAIN.– ESSENTIALLY GOOD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS, REGARDLESS OF WHATTHE FED DOES. GENNADIY: I KIND OF THINKING GETS MENERVOUS. EVERYONE IS QUITE NERVOUS,QUITE EXPECTANT OF EITHER WE GET GOOD NEWS OR WE GET GOODNEWS WITH THE FED RATE CUTS. THE PROBLEM IS NO ONE ISN'TDISSIPATING DOWNSIDE RISKS. IF YOU DO SEE THE ECONOMY SLOWDOWN IN THE FED IS REFUSING TO CUT RATES, THAT COULD BE ATOXIC SCENARIO.

IF YOU ARE SEEING THE ECONOMYDO OK, PERHAPS YOU CAN SEE STOCKS EKE OUT A GAIN. HIGHER MOVEMENTS HAVE BEENDRIVEN BY EXPECTATIONS FOR RATE CUTS. LISA:YOU ARE SAYING PEOPLE HAVE NOT PRICED IN THE IDEA OF RATE CUTSDUE TO ACTUAL WEAKNESS. DO YOU THINK THAT IS APOSSIBILITY, SOMETHING YOU ARE SNIFFING OUT? GENNADIY:I THINK SO. IF YOU ARE THINKING RATE CUTSBECAUSE OF A HARDER LANDING, THAT IS NOT A POSITIVE STORY.WHAT YOU ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW.

IS EVERY SINGLE INVESTORPRICING IN A SOFT LANDING WHICH GETS ME QUITE NERVOUS.RECENT DATA HAS BEEN SOLID BUT WHAT WE KNOW IS THINGS LIKELABOR MARKET DATA ARE FAIRLY LANKY. THEY KNOW THAT THE LONGER THATREAL RATES STAY HIGH, THE MORE LIKELY YOU ARE TO SEE A HARDERLANDING. JONATHAN: JOAN AT 50 BASIS POINTS OF CUTSEXPECTED BY Q1. LET CAN'T JUST BE AN INFLATIONCALL. GENNADIY: WE ARE LOOKING FOR THE ECONOMYTO SLOW DOWN.

THE TIMING IS GETTING DIFFICULTJUST BECAUSE OF THE NUMBERS YOU HAVE SEEN IN PAYROLLS INDECEMBER AND JANUARY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE DEBATINGWHETHER THAT IS LIKELY LATER IN THE YEAR AND I THINK THEPROBLEM IS MARKETS HAVE BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS FOR SOMETIME, BASICALLY TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN THE ECONOMY ISGOING TO SLOW DOWN, WHETHER WE GET THAT SLAW FLAT — SOFTLANDING OR NOT. JONATHAN:CLEARLY YOU ARE ON THE OTHER OF 4.50. GENNADIY:I WOULD LOVE 4.50.

I THINK MOST INVESTORS AT THISPOINT ARE LOOKING FOR 425 TO 450.I'VE BEEN TALKING TO CLIENTS AND THAT SEEMS TO BE THEGENERAL CONSENSUS. YOU DEFINITELY GO ALONG AT 450WHICH IS WHY WE ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET THERE.WE WILL PROBABLY STOP SHORT BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BEADDING AT 425. JONATHAN: GENNADIY, GOOD TO SEE YOU.THANK YOU. GENNADIY GOLDBERG OF TDSECURITIES. IN THE THIRD HOUR OF BLOOMBERGSURVEILLANCE.

THAT AND A WHOLE LOT MORE.LIVE FROM NEW YORK CITY. EQUITIES GOING NOWHERE. UP NEXT. >> THE FED HAS ALL THE EVIDENCETHEY NEED TO CUT OR STAY PUT. >> IT IS A QUESTION OF WHEN. >> THERE IS NO HURRY FOR CUTSANYTIME SOON. >> TALKING ABOUT THE RESILIENCYOF. THE THIS IS “BLOOMBERGSURVEILLANCE” WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISAABRAMOWICZ AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. JONATHAN:GOOD MORNING, I'M JONATHAN.

FERRO.YOUR EQUITY MARKET TOTALLY UNCHANGED, FIVE WEEKS OF GAINSON THE S&P FOR 14 WEEKS OUT OF 15. THIS 20 MARKET HAS RALLIED, JUST AMAZING TO SEE IT CONTINUEGOING TO CPI TOMORROW MORNING. LISA:CLIMBING ABOVE 5000 OR MAYBE LIMPING ABOVE AND I THINK MAYBETHAT IS THE WAY TO PUT IT BECAUSE IT IS NOT EXACTLY AS IFTHIS ASSUMPTION OF ENTHUSIASTIC SCREAM FROM EQUITY INVESTORS.THIS IS “THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN” CRUSHING IT IN TERMS OFPROFITABILITY AND EVERYONE ELSE.

KIND OF CARRYING ALONG BEHINDTHEM. JONATHAN: THE FACT WE ARE EVEN LIMPINGFORWARD IS IMPRESSIVE. YIELDS UP LAST NIGHT BY MORETHAN 11 BASIS POINTS. ANOTHER DOUBLE-DIGIT GAIN ONTHE FRONT END OF THE YIELD CURVE OFF THE BACK OF REALLYROBUST DATA. ULTIMATELY, IT WON'T LEAD TODERAILING THE DISINFLATIONARY PROGRESS WE'VE MADE OVER THELAST SIX MONTHS. IF THE LAST POINT THAT GETS ALITTLE BIT MORE FRAGILE. HE WAS BASICALLY SAYING THE CPIPRINT TOMORROW AND THE ONE.

AFTERWARDS COULD TIP THE SCALEIN EITHER DIRECTION. LISA: GIVEN THE FACT THAT PEOPLE HAVEA BASE CASE OF THIS GOLDILOCKS BUT THE OVERHEATING PART MIGHTJUST TAKE FRONT AND CENTER. THE ISSUE, IF THE FED DELAYSFEDERATE CUTS SIMPLY BECAUSE THERE IS TOO MUCH STRENGTH,THAT IS A GOOD THING FOR RISK ASSETS.THAT IS WHAT WE HEAR FROM PERSON AFTER PERSON.IF THE FED CUTS RATES MORE AGGRESSIVELY BECAUSE OF TRUEWEAKNESS AND THAT COMES WITH SOME OF THE INFLATION THAT SOMEPEOPLE EXPECT, THAT IS A RECIPE.

THAT AS A WHOLE LOT HARDER.JONATHAN: IF TD IS RIGHT THAT WE AREGOING TO GET 250 POINTS OF CUTS BETWEEN MAY AND THE FIRSTQUARTER OF NEXT YEAR, SURELY THAT IS A STORY OF MUCH SOFTERGROWTH. LISA: WHICH IS SOMETHING THATAPPROXIMATELY NOBODY IS BETTING ON. THIS IS THE KEY, HOW MUCH ENTHUSIASM AND BASE CASE HAVEPEOPLE BAKED INTO THE CAKE? JONATHAN:CPI TOMORROW MORNING, YET THE LATEST POLL FOR THE RACE TOBECOME THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE.

IN THE ELECTION LATER THIS YEAR.THE WASHINGTON POST POLL SHOWS 50% OF SOUTH CAROLINA VOTERSFOR TRUMP, 32% FOR THE FORMER U.N. AMBASSADOR NIKKI HALEY. ANNMARIE, IN HER HOME STATE.WE CAUGHT UP WITH NIKKI HALEY ABOUT 15, 20 MINUTES AGO.I THINK WE ASKED BASICALLY 15 DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF IT, HOWMUCH DAYLIGHT IS THEREBETWEEN WHAT YOUR PARTY WANTS AND WHATYOU THINK IT NEEDS? ANNMARIE: THERE'S A LOT OF DAYLIGHTBECAUSE SHE IS STRUGGLING TO GET THE PACE AS TRUMP CONTINUESTO HAVE THIS ABSOLUTE HOLD, AND.

THEN YOU LOOK AT NATO. SOMETHING SHE IS VERYCOMFORTABLE DISCUSSING, AND WHEN YOU HEAR WHAT SOME SENDERSARE SAYING AFTER THE FORMER PRESIDENT CAME OUT OVER THEWEEKEND AND SAID IF YOU ARE DELINQUENT AND/OR A COUNTRYTHAT SAYS RUSSIA ROLLED IN, I WOULD TELL RUSSIA TO DOWHATEVER THE HELL THEY WANT WITH YOU, LINDSEY GRAHAM SAID IDON'T EVEN KNOW WHY YOU WERE ASKING ME ABOUT THIS, THIS ISWHAT TRUMP DOES. MARCO RUBIO SAID THIS IS HOWTRUMP COMMUNICATES.

SHE IS EQUATING WHAT TRUMP ISTALKING ABOUT AS MORE OF THIS SOFT LANGUAGE ON PUTIN, WHO SHECALLED IN OUR INTERVIEW A THUG. JONATHAN:THE FORMER PRESIDENT'S COMMENTS SPEAK TO THE INCREASINGPRESENCE FOR ISOLATIONISM. RECORD 51% OF REPUBLICAN VOTERSFAVOR GREATER ISOLATIONISM IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY.LISA, THAT NUMBER IS CLIMBING. ONCE AGAIN IN SOME WAYS NIKKIHALEY FINDING HERSELF AT A SINK WITH WHERE THE PARTY IS HEADED.LISA: RUNNING AS A GENERAL ELECTIONCANDIDATE IN AN ELECTION THAT.

REALLY STILL IS RUN BY THEPARTIES THAT HAVE DIFFERENT FACTIONS AND DIFFERENTMAJORITIES RAISE THE QUESTION WHY IS SHE CONTINUING IN THATPARTY IF IT IS ESSENTIALLY REJECTING HER TO MARK SHE SAIDSHE IS GOING TO CONTINUE WITH THAT PARTY, BUT THIS IS THEISSUE. HOW DO YOU RUN AS A GENERALELECTION CANDIDATE AT A TIME WHEN YOU'RE NOT GOING TO GETCHOSEN AS YOUR PARTY NOMINEE? JONATHAN:THIS IS HOW WE ARE GOING INTO THE OPENING BELL, ABOUT ONEHOUR 25 MINUTES AWAY.

EQUITY FEATURES TOTALLYUNCHANGED, YIELDS DOWN ABOUT THREE BASIS POINTS OR SO. COMING UP THIS HOUR, WHYJANUARY CPI REPORT TO BE THE LAST OF THE INFLATION PRINTMATTHEW BARTLETT ON THE 2024 GOP RACE, AND WHY HE SEES ANINCREASING CHANCE OF A HARD LANDING IN THE U.S. ECONOMY.THAT IS COMING UP A LITTLE BIT LATER.THE TOP STORY, THE S&P 500 HITTING A RECORD HIGH AHEAD OFTOMORROW'S CPI RISK TO TOMORROW'S CPI REPORT ACTUALLYLIES A DOWNSIDE, HOWEVER WE ARE.

STARTING TO SEE SOME PRICEPRESSURES PICK UP IN FEBRUARY. IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SUREBUT IT COULD BE THAT THE JANUARY DATE IS THE LAST MONTHOF BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED ELATION NEWS CERTAINLY RECENT DATA ONWAGES AND SERVICES PRICES PAID COULD CAUSE INCREASED CONCERNS.FOR NOW, IT LIKES — LOOKS LIKE THE GOOD TIMES CAN CONTINUE TOROLL. LET'S GET INTO IT AND TALK ABOUT THE EXPECTATIONS LASTYEAR LOOKING OUT FOR THIS YEAR. YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT ASTRONGER ECONOMY. WHY WAS THAT WHEN MANY OTHERSARE LOOKING FOR THAT.

DECELERATION PERHAPS TOWARDRECESSION? >> BECAUSE I THINK PEOPLEUNDERESTIMATED THE U.S. CONSUMER.PEOPLE UNDERESTIMATED THE LEVEL OF EXCESS SAVINGS.THEY UNDERESTIMATED THE POWER OF THE U.S.MORTGAGE MARKET WITH 30 YEAR FIXED RATE MORTGAGES.I THINK THEY ALSO UNDERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OFDEMOGRAPHICS ON THE LABOR MARKET.WE HAVE A SHORTAGE OF WORKERS AND WE ARE SEEING THAT COMING.WAGES. HOMEOWNERS ARE NOT REALLY.

IMPACTED BY HIGHER RATESBECAUSE THEY GOT FIXED RATE MORTGAGES.YOU HAD EXCESS SAVINGS STILL FROM THE PANDEMIC RUNNING OUT,BUT STILL THERE. THEN YOU HAVE THIS LABOR MARKETWERE WE STILL SEE TIGHTNESS. JONATHAN:YOU DIDN'T UNDERESTIMATE HOW RESILIENT THIS ECONOMY WOULD BE.ULTIMATELY, OTHER PEOPLE DID. ARE YOU UNDERESTIMATING HOWRESILIENT THIS EQUITY MARKET MIGHT BE IN THE FACE OF THAT? >> I WAS, I THINK, BECAUSE MYVIEW LAST YEAR TO SOME EXTENT.

WAS THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO BEBETTER, THAT IS NOT GOING TO BE CUTTING AS MUCH, AND THAT ISBAD FOR EQUITIES. WHERE WE GOT INTO OVER THE LASTMONTH OR TWO AND CERTAINLY THIS YEAR IS WE ARE PUSHING BACK TOSTART THE RATE CUTS, WE ARE NOT REMOVING THE.THERE IS STILL THIS BELIEF THAT WE ARE GOING TO GET A SERIES OFRATE CUTS, THEY ARE JUST GOING TO COME LATER, BUT THEY ARECOMING LATER BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS STRONGER.THAT IS A GOOD PLACE TO BE FOR RISK ASSETS.BETTER ECONOMIC DATA, WE STILL.

GOT THE PROSPECT OF RATE CUTSCOMING UP BUT IT NATION IS COMING DOWN.THAT IS THE PERFECT SCENARIO AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE SEEINGSO FAR THIS YEAR. LISA: IS RISK SMALL CAPS? >> SOPHIA THE EQUITYOUTPERFORMER'S, IT IS ACTUALLY FLAT THIS YEAR. IN NOVEMBER DECEMBER, WE DIDSTART TO SEE THE BROADER MARKET GO UP, THAT COINCIDED WITHLONGER RATES COMING DOWN. WHEN LONG AND RATES GO UP, ITBECOMES A NAG SEVEN STORY.

RATHER THAN A BROADER MARKETSTORY. NOVEMBER, DECEMBER WERE GREATAS RATES CAME DOWN, AND WHEN WE ARE GOING UP, IT IS FLAT. LISA: SO WHAT ARE YOU BETTING ON, AREYOU GOING HEAVILY INTO THE U.S., IN PARTICULAR THE S&P 500?>> I THINK IT CONTINUES. INFLATION NEWS IS GOING TO BEOK FOR NOW. GROWTH NEWS IS GOING TOCONTINUE TO BE GOOD. NO ONE IS REALLY WORRIED THEFED ARE GOING TO START HIKING AGAIN. WE ARE GOING TO GET THEPROSPECT OF RATE CUTS OUT THERE.

SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR ITBECOMES TRICKY. FIRST HALF I THINK WE ARE FINE.SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR I START TO WORRY.THAT PRESSURE IN THE LABOR MARKET IS STILL THERE.I WORRY ABOUT THE HOUSING MARKET.WE KEEP EXPECTING A WE ARE GOING TO SEE THE INFLATIONIMPULSE FROM SHELTER COME DOWN. THE HOUSING MARKET IS PICKINGBACK UP. WE HAVE AN INVENTORY PROBLEM INTHE U.S.. MORTGAGE RATES HAVE STARTED TOCOME DOWN A BIT.

WE ARE SEEING ON THE WEEKLYAPPLICATION FOR PEOPLE WHO WERE ON THE SIDELINE FOR LAST YEARSARE COMING BACK AND GET PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOCKED-IN THE ORIGINTHE PERCENT WERE IN THE PANDEMIC ARE NOT MOVING SO WEHAVE AN INVENTORY PROBLEM. I LORI THAT SHELTER IS GOING TOBE A POSITIVE IMPULSE FOR INFLATION THE SECOND HALF OFTHE YEAR. LISA: I'M STRUCK, JULIAN EMANUEL ROADOVER THE WEEKEND. I REMAIN INVEST DEFENSIVELY.VALUATIONS CAN RUN FURTHER, YET MOMENTUM MARKETS AND WITHOUTRUNNING.

WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE END OFMOMENTUM, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT A VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIO THANGOLDBERG WAS TALKING ABOUT WITH THIS IN THE ECONOMY.YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT UNEXPECTED STRENGTH AND WE INFLATION.HOW DO YOU HEDGE AGAINST THAT TYPE OF SCENARIO GIVEN THAT THEPOLLS ARE SO DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER IN TERMS OF OUTCOMES? >> IT'S DIFFICULT, I ACTUALLYTHINK YOU PLAY IT THROUGH SHORT DURATION.I AGREE, I THINK YOU MENTIONED EARLIER 4.5% ON 10 YEAR.I THINK WE DO GET THERE ON 10.

YEARS.SO I WOULD BE SHORT DURATION HERE.THAT FITS WITH THE STORY OF BETTER ECONOMIC GROWTH PUSHINGOUT THE RATE CUTS. THE INFLATION DOES COME BACKMORE MEANINGFULLY IN A THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THAT CURVESTEEPEN UP. I WOULD BE SHORT DURATION HERE.I THINK WE SEE 4.5% BEFORE MIDYEAR. JONATHAN:EVERYONE IS TALKING UP THIS WAR OF DEMAND. NO ONE WANTED IT, NOWAPPARENTLY EVERYONE WANTS IT. DO YOU SEE AT THE SAME WAY, ORDO YOU SEE THIS MARKET JUST.

SWINGING BACK TO A REPORT INOCTOBER, WHEN PEOPLE START TO SEE YIELDS GO HIGHER.THEY DON'T COME IN, THEY ARE RUNNING THE OTHER DIRECTION. >> IT'S ALL VERY WELL DISABLETO GET THE 4.5 I'M DEFINITELY GOING TO BE BUYING AND THEN YOUGET A 4.5, THE PACE IS ACTUALLY STRONG, INFLATION DATA MIGHT BECOMING BACK. WHAT IS THE MIKE TYSON QUOTE,EVERYONE HAS GOT A PLAN UNTIL THEY GET HIT IN THE FACE?I WILL BUY IT WHEN WE GET THERE, BECAUSE THEN YOU MIGHTSAY FOUR AND THREE QUARTERS.

JONATHAN:THAT IS A RIGHT HOOK, ALL RIGHT. HE IS RIGHT.I THINK WE ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE HERE.THE PSYCHOLOGY OF MARKETS, GET TO FIVE AND CLIMBING ANDEVERYONE IS LIKE, NO THANK YOU. YOU DROPPED A 4.58 YOU'REDROPPING DOWN TOWARD 4%, EVERYONE IS LIKE YES, GIVE ME4.50. BUT HIS POINT, IF YOU'RE BACKING UP TO 4.50, INFLATIONPRESSURES ARE STILL STICKING, MAYBE EVEN FIVE AROUND THECORNER. LISA: IT IS A QUESTION OF MOMENTUM ONTHE OTHER SIDE, BUT I LOVE HOW.

THIS IS PHRASED.MARKETS ARE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE WHEN IT IS ON SALE, YOUDON'T WANT IT AND WHEN IT IS ON SALE, — EXPENSIVE, YOU WANT TOPILE IN. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THATHIGHER INTEREST EXPENSE ACTUALLY BEGETS MORE PROBLEMSBECAUSE IT MAKES IT HARDER FOR THE U.S. TO PAY IT BACK. AND WE CARE ABOUT SUPPLY, OR ISTHIS SOMETHING PEOPLE IT WAS THE PUT ON THE BACK BURNER?IF THE NARRATIVE SHIFTS, AKP GOING FOR A LONG TIME. JONATHAN:THE EQUITY MARKET IS LIKE A.

USED CAR SALESMAN.WHEN IT CUTS TOO MUCH, YOU START TO THINK IF THERE'SSOMETHING WRONG WITH IT? TOTALLY UNCHANGED, LET'S GETYOU AN UPDATE ON STORIES ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. >> IS LAUNCHED A SERIES OFAIRSTRIKES ON THE CITY OF RAFAEL IN THE SOUTHERN GAZASTRIP EARLY MONDAY. ISRAELI MILITARY SAYS THEOVERNIGHT MISSION FREAKED TWO HOSTAGES. THE STRIKES CAME AFTERPRESIDENT BIDEN URGED BENJAMIN NETANYAHU TO DO MORE TO PROTECTCIVILIANS.

OVER ONE MILLION PALESTINIANSHAVE FLED SINCE THE START OF THE WAR.THAT IS ABOUT HALF OF THE TOTAL GAZA POPULATION.PRESIDENT BIDEN CALLED OUT MAJOR SNACK BRENT OVERSTREETINFLATION AHEAD OF THE SUPER BOWL. HE DIDN'T NAME SPECIFICCOMPANIES OR OFFER A SOLUTION TO HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE FORSELLING PRODUCT AT A HIGHER PRICE. >> SOME COMPANIES ARE TRYING TOPLAY FAST ONE BY SHRINKING THE PRODUCTS LITTLE BY LITTLE ANDHOPING YOU WILL NOTICE.

GIVE ME A BREAK. THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS BEINGPLAYED FOR SUCKERS. I'M CALLING ON COMPANIES TO PUTA STOP TO THIS. LISA: EVEN AS INFLATION APPEARS TO BESLOWLY, THE ECONOMY REMAINS A TOP ISSUE FOR MANY AMERICANSHEADING INTO THE ELECTION. GERMANY'S MARKET FOR OFFICEBUILDINGS AND SUFFERING ITS SHARPEST DROP IN TWO DECADES.PRICES TUMBLE 13% IN THE FOURTH QUARTER.HIGHER FINANCING COSTS AND SLOWER RETURN TO OFFICECONTRIBUTED TO THE DOWNTURN.

THE OUTLOOK ISN'T MUCH BETTERWITH FURTHER DECLINE PROJECTED FOR THE START OF THE YEAR.JONATHAN: THANK YOU. UP NEXT, NIKKI HALEY FIRINGBACK AT TRUMP'S NATO COMMENTS. >> NATO HAS BEEN A 75 YEARSUCCESS STORY. WE HAVE NOT HAD WAR IN THEREGION AND IF YOU LOOK, RUSSIA HAS NEVER INVADED A NATOCOUNTRY. I DEALT WITH RUSSIA EVERYSINGLE DAY. IT IS A MISTAKE FOR TRUMP TOSIDE WITH PUTIN OVER OUR ALLIES. JONATHAN:THAT CONVERSATION UP NEXT.

JONATHAN:ONE HOUR 15 MINUTES FROM THE OPENING BELL, EQUITIESUNCHANGED FOR MUCH OF THE LAST TWO HOURS ON THE S&P 500, WHICHIS AMAZING, REALLY. ALL-TIME HIGHS FOR CPI JUSTAROUND THE CORNER, SORT OF TREADING WATER. UNDER SURVEILLANCE THISMORNING, NIKKI HALEY FIRING BACK AT TRUMP'S NATO COMMENTS. >> NATO HAS BEEN A 75 YEARSUCCESS STORY. WE HAVE NOT HAD WAR IN THEREGION AND IF YOU LOOK, RUSSIA.

HAS NEVER INVADED A NATIVECOUNTRY. DO WE WANT NATO TO PAY MORE?OF COURSE WE DO, BUT THE LAST THING WE ARE GOING TO DO ISSIDE WITH A THUG. I DEALT WITH RUSSIA EVERYSINGLE DAY. IT IS A MISTAKE FOR TRUMP TOSIDE WITH PUTIN OVER OUR ALLIES. JONATHAN:HALEY LOOKING TO GAIN GROUND ON THE FORMER PRESIDENT IN HERHOME STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. HEAD OF THAT PRIMARY ON THE24TH, THE LATEST POLLS SHOWING HER TRAILING DONALD TRUMP IAROUND 30 POINTS.

WE'RE JOINED NOW FOR MORE.GREAT TO CATCH UP. IN SOME WAYS, NIKKI HALEY ANDTHE CAMPAIGN OVER THERE SEEM LIKE THEY HAVE GOT IT SEQUENCEDBACK TO FRONT. THEY SEEM TO BE DOING REALLYWELL ON THE NATIONAL STAGE AGAINST BIDEN AND WITH THEPOORLY IN THEIR OWN PARTY AGAINST TRUMP, AND YOU CAN'TGET TO ONE WITHOUT SECURING THE OTHER.HOW DO THEY TURN THIS AROUND? >> FIRST OFF, AMAZING INTERVIEW.THAT WAS MORE SUBSTANTIVE THAN I THINK WE SEE FROM TRUMP ORBIDEN IN THE PAST NINE MONTHS.

ALL AROUND THE POLITICALREALITY TO THE REALLY CRITICAL ISSUES OF THE DOMESTICSITUATION AS WELL AS MATTERS OF WAR AND PEACE INTERNATIONALLY.NIKKI HALEY IS ESPOUSING WHAT SEEMS TO BE A VERY APPEALINGMESSAGE TO THE MAJORITY OF AMERICANS. U.S.LEADERSHIP, FISCAL STABILITY, FREE TRADE, ECONOMIC GROWTH.YET SHE SEEMS INCREDIBLY OUT OF LINE AND OUT OF TOUCH WHERE THEBASE PRIMARY VOTER IS, AND THAT IS A PROBLEM. >> YOU LOOK AT THE REPUBLICANPARTY, TRUMP HAS A GRIP ON THE.

BASE.WHY IS THE REMAINDER, GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE EVERYONEDROPPING OUT, YOU THINK OF DESANTIS, PENCE, WHY WAS SHEUNABLE TO GET THE REMAINDER OF THAT PARTY IN THE PRIMARY? >> IT'S A GREAT QUESTION,ANNE-MARIE. I WOULD JUST SAY THAT DONALDTRUMP HAS BEEN A POLITICAL IDENTITY OF THE BASE FOR THEBETTER PART OF A DECADE NOW, AND THEY LIKE THE ATTITUDE,THEY LIKE THE SWAGGER OF THE FORMER PRESIDENT.I THINK THERE WAS PROBABLY.

MAYBE A YEAR AGO SOME QUESTIONSAROUND HIS ELECTABILITY. EVEN TRUMP VOTERS ARE HAPPY TOADMIT THAT HE STEPS ON HIMSELF QUITE OFTEN.WHAT IF WE SEE THE PAST SIX MONTHS?HEAD-TO-HEAD POLLING WHERE FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP ISBEATING KARIN PRESIDENT BIDEN CAN MANY OF THE SWING STATES.THAT HAS DONE NOTHING BUT EMBOLDEN HIS MESSAGE, AND HISVOTERS, AND REALLY MAKE THIS JUST HAVE A PSYCHOLOGICALEFFECT THAT THE GENERAL ELECTION REMATCH IS A FOREGONECONCLUSION.

>> SHE'S NOT JUST OUT OF STEPWITH MEMBERS OF PARTY, SHE ALMOST IN THE LAST 24 HOURSFEELS LIKE SHE IS IN STEP WITH THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION.WHEN TRUMP MADE THOSE COMMENTS, ANDREW BAIT CAME OUT AND SENTENCOURAGING INVASIONS OF OUR CLOSEST ALLIES BY MURDEROUSREGIMES IS APPALLING AND UNHINGED.SHE IS CALLING PUTIN A THUG AND IS VERY MUCH AGAINST WHAT TRUMPIS SAYING WHEN IT COMES TO NATO. AT THE SAME TIME TRUMP ALSOWENT AFTER HER HUSBAND AND PRESIDENT BIDEN CAME OUT ANDDEFENDED HER.

HOW ODD IS THAT TO SEE?A REPUBLICAN WHO WANTS TO GET THE NOMINEE IS ACTUALLY MORETHAN LINE — MORE IN LINE IN THIS MOMENT WITH THE PRESIDENTFROM THE OTHER PARTY. >> IT'S AN INTERESTING DYNAMICYOU HAVE. SHE ABSOLUTELY WENT AFTERPRESIDENT BIDEN, TALKING ABOUT HIS MENTAL FACULTIES, SAYINGTHAT HE IS SIMPLY TOO OLD, BUT YOU ARE RIGHT, SHE ALSO WENTAFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP ON ISSUES RELATED TO NATO, ISSUES WHERESHE ACTUALLY DISAGREES WITH HIM ON CRITICAL ISSUES.SO I THINK MAYBE IT WAS LISA.

THAT ASKED THE LAST QUESTION,IS THIS A THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE? IT IS VERY MURKY AS SHE TRIESTO GET THROUGH A REPUBLICAN PRIMARY TO GET THE NOMINATION,BEATING FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP IN ORDER TO GET THE CURRENTPRESIDENT BIDEN. IT IS SUCH A TOPSY-TURVYDYNAMIC I'M NOT SURE SHE IS NOW GETTING A WIND. LISA:AS A REPUBLICAN WHO HAS WORKED IN DIFFERENT PRESIDENTIALCAMPAIGNS, HOW MUCH IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING AN INDICTMENT OF THEPRIMARY PROCESS GIVEN THE FACT THAT SOMEONE WHO COULD WIN AGENERAL ELECTION CAN'T WIN THE.

PRIMARY? >> PRECISELY.I THINK BOTH PARTIES ARE STRUGGLING WITH THAT QUESTION.WHOEVER CAN CRACK THE NOTION OF THE PRIMARY PROCESS, NOTPUTTING FORTH ONE OF THE MORE EXTREME CANDIDATES, BUT RATHERPUTTING FORTH ONE OF THE MOST ELECTABLE AND REASONABLECANDIDATES WILL ULTIMATELY RULE IN THE UNITED STATES FOR THEFORESEEABLE FUTURE. IT IS CHALLENGING DOING THAT.MAKE NO MISTAKE. 2016, THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HADA PLETHORA OF PROGRESSIVE.

CANDIDATES.BERNIE SANDERS, ELIZABETH WARREN.ULTIMATELY THEY DID NOT GO WITH A BLEEDING LIBERAL HEART ANDINSTEAD, WENT WITH JOE BIDEN WHO THEY THOUGHT WAS THE MOSTMODERATE, ELECTABLE CANDIDATE. TO THEIR CREDIT, THEY WON THEPRESIDENCY. NOW, OBVIOUSLY PRESIDENT BIDENHAS CHALLENGERS BOTH AS A PERSON AND MAYBE EVEN SOME MOREPROGRESSIVE POLICIES THAT MAKE THAT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT,YET THE REPUBLICAN SEEMS ABSOLUTELY HAPPY TO PROCEEDWITH DONALD TRUMP.

THEY ARE CONVINCED THAT THEYWILL WIN WITH HIM OR THEY ARE HAPPY TO LOSE WITH HIM.THEY ARE NOT GOING ANYWHERE. SIMPLY PUT, REPUBLICANS LIKETRUMP. BOTH PARTIES SEEM TO BE DIGGINGIN THE, WHILE A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS SEEM TO BE TUNING OUTTO POSSIBLY BOTH OF THEM. LISA: YOU HAVE A SENSE OF WHAT ISDRIVING PEOPLE TO TRUMP? WHAT KEEPS THEM THERE RATHERTHAN BROADENING OUT? >> IT IS A MIX OF POLICY ANDPERSONALITY, MAKE NO MISTAKE. YOU JUST HEARD NIKKI HALEYESPOUSE WHAT IS A TRADITIONAL.

REPUBLICAN YOUTH THOSE, WHICHIS U.S. LEADERSHIP AROUND THE WORLDWHICH IS FREE TRADE, WHICH IS ENTITLEMENT REFORM.DONALD TRUMP IN A 2016 SAID NO MORE STUPID WARS, BY THE WAY ITIS CALLED FAIR TRADE NOT FREE TRADE, YOU'RE NOT GOING TOTOUCH MEDICARE AND MEDICAID SOCIAL SECURITY, AND HE WON.THAT WAS STILL A SHOCK TO THE CONSERVATIVE YOUTH THOSE AS WEMOVE FORWARD IN THIS TOWN AND ACROSS THE COUNTRY.AND THEN YOU HAVE THE PERSONALITY WHERE THEREPUBLICAN PARTY, THE.

CONSERVATIVE BASE VOTER, IT ISNOT ABOUT A POLICY OR SET OF PRINCIPLES, IT IS ABOUT THEATTITUDE, THE SWAGGER, THE FIGHTING BACK.AND THEY APPRECIATE THAT NOTION. MITT ROMNEY IN THE PAST, A BOYSCOUT AND WAS TREATED POORLY. THEY PUT FORTH OTHERCANDIDATES, SO WHY NOT SEND TRUMP?IT SEEMS AS IF THE WINNING IN 2016 IS ENOUGH OF A SUGAR HIGHTHAT WILL KEEP THEM GOING, EVEN THOUGH IN SUBSEQUENT YEARS,2018, 2020, IS GHOST IN 2022 HAS ONLY BROUGHT DOOM AND GLOOMFOR REPUBLICANS. JONATHAN:.

YOU MENTIONED BIDEN WINNING THEPRIMARY. THIS EXPLORE THAT ONE STEPFURTHER. IT WASN'T FOR SENATOR CLYBURN,THERE ARE MANY WHO BELIEVE IT MAY WELL HAVE BEEN A BERNIESANDERS. IT WASN'T AS IF THERE WAS SOMEGENIUS THOUGHT IN THE PARTY TO PUT FORWARD SOMEONE THAT MIGHTWIN ON THE NATIONAL STAGE. IS THERE A SENATOR CLYBURN INTHE REPUBLICAN PARTY THAT COULD TURN THIS AROUND? >> NO, NOT AT ALL.QUITE THE OPPOSITE.

ANYTHING THAT SMELLS OFESTABLISHMENT, ANYTHING THAT SMELLS OF D.C., ANYTHING THATSMELLS OF TRYING TO PUSH VOTERS AWAY FROM WHERE THEY ARE ONLYBACKFIRES. THERE IS NO CAVALRY COMING.WE ARE A PARTY THAT IS INTENT ON THE GRASSROOTS, THAT IS VERYCRANKY, THAT IS NOT IN A GOOD MOOD.YOU LOOK AT EVEN SOME OF THE COOLER HEADS HERE IN THIS TOWN,WHETHER IT IS SENATOR RON MAKE, YOU EVEN LOOK AT MIKEGALLAGHER, A YOUNG CONSERVATIVE CHAIRMAN OF THE CHINA SELECTCOMMITTEE DOING IMPORTANT,.

CRITICAL BIPARTISAN WORK.JUST LAST WEEK HE SAID HE REFUSES TO IMPEACH MAYORKAS.VERY CHALLENGING TIMES OUT THERE. >> THERE IS NOT A SENATORCLYBURN, AND I THINK THIS IS AN IMPORTANT POINT.THE REASON ONLY A HANDFUL OR NOT A HANDFUL OF YOU ONLY — THIS IS THEANTIESTABLISHMENT MOVEMENT THAT A FORMER PRESIDENT SEEMS TOLEAD. ANNMARIE: WHICH IS WHY WHEN YOU SEEDEFENSE HAWKS SHRUG IT OFF YOU.

REALIZE HOW FAR THIS PARTY HASCOME. JONATHAN: ABOUT 24 HOURS FOUR MINUTESAWAY. ♪ JONATHAN: EQUITY FUTURES ONTHE S&P 500, EQUITIES UNCHANGED. NASDAQ: NOWHERE AS WELL.THE REST OF THE SMALL CAPS DOING OK.THE S&P 500 HAS BEEN DOING BETTER THAN OK.FIVE-WEEK WINNING STREAK ON THE S&P 500. IN FACT, MAKE IT 14 WEEKS AT A15 THAT THIS EQUITY MARKET HAS BEEN RALLYING AREA SO BASICALLYSINCE THE END OF OCTOBER, JUST.

ONE DIRECTION, EQUITIES HIGHER. UNTIL RECENTLY, LAST WEEK,YIELDS HIGHER BY MORE THAN DOUBLE DIGITS, DOWN BY A COUPLEOF BASIS POINTS THIS MORNING. SO FAR, SO GOOD.THIS EQUITY MARKET HAS HANDLED IT PRETTY DECENTLY. >> A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY THE FEDHAS MADE THE PIVOT AND IS GOING TO BE CUTTING RATES, IT IS JUSTA MATTER OF WHEN. AND THAT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THISGOING, EVEN IF PEOPLE PROLONG THE FIRST RATE CUT, WHEN ITMIGHT ACTUALLY HAPPEN. JONATHAN:.

UNLESS THAT DATA DISRUPTS ANDDERAILS DISINFLATIONARY TRENDS. THAT IS GOING TO BE THE ISSUEAT PLAY. THE WAGES STORY, I THINK WE AREREADY TO PUT THAT TO ONE SIDE UNTIL YOU GET MORE OF IT ANDMORE OF IT. THEN THE STORY STARTS TO CHANGE.SO FAR, SO GOOD. GOOD NEWS, GOOD NEWS.YOU GET A COUPLE OF REPORTS IN THE WRONG DIRECTION AND YOU TIPTHE SCALES THE OTHER WAY. LISA: DOES THAT HURT THE MOST?IT DIDN'T MAKE AND THAT BEARISH. THAT THING YOU DO GETOVERHEATING.

THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY ANEGATIVE FOR EQUITY INVESTORS. IT REALLY RAISES THE QUESTIONWHETHER THE FED CAN CUT AT ALL THIS YEAR, WHICH IS THE REASONI THOUGHT IT WAS REALLY INTERESTING THAT BANK OFAMERICA WAS TALKING ABOUT HOW EVEN WITH NO RATE CUTS THISYEAR YOU CAN STILL SEEING A RALLY IN THE EQUITY MARKET.JONATHAN: HE CALLED A REVERSE GOLDILOCKS.LISA: GOGO, GOLDILOCKS AND REVERSEGOLDILOCKS. JONATHAN: A LOT OF THOUGHT WENT INTOSHORT — I'M SURE.

BASICALLY UNCHANGED, BONDYIELDS COMING IN. NEGATIVE BY 0.15%.YOUR TOP STORIES, ISRAEL LAUNCHING MORE AIRSTRIKES INTHE SOUTHERN GAZA CITY. BENJAMIN NETANYAHU VOWING TOCONTINUE ISRAEL'S MILITARY ACTION DESPITE GROWINGINTERNATIONAL SCRUTINY. THE WHITE HOUSE SAYINGYESTERDAY THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN TOLD NETANYAHU NOT TO PROCEEDWITHOUT A CREDIBLE AND EXECUTABLE PLAN FOR THE SAFETYAND SUPPORT OF CIVILIANS. SOME GROWING DISTANCE BETWEENTHOSE TWO LEADERS. ANNMARIE:.

A LOT OF GROWING DISTANCE WHENYOU CONSIDER BIDEN'S PREVIOUS REMARKS IN PUBLIC WHERE HE SAIDSOME OF WHAT NETANYAHU HAS DONE HAS BEEN OVER THE TOP A LOT OFCONCERN FROM THIS ADMINISTRATION OVER PROTECTINGCIVILIANS, WHICH WE KNOW GIVEN ISRAEL'S ASSAULT ON GAZA, MORETHAN ONE MILLION PALESTINIANS ARE NOW IN OFFER.THIS IS WHERE THEY SOUGHT REFUGE AND NOW THEY WANT TOMAKE A HUMANITARIAN CORRIDOR GOING TO THE NORTH, BUT WHEREDOES EGYPT COME INTO PLAY? THERE IS A PEACE TREATY BETWEENEGYPT AND ISRAEL SINCE 1979 AND.

IF THERE'S TOO MANY ISRAELIMILITARY PERSONNEL OF THAT BORDER, THAT COULD BREAK APARTA PEACE TREATY THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE LATE 70'S.JONATHAN: WITHOUT A DOUBT THIS IS AREALLY DELICATE SITUATION BUT IN MANY WAYS THE MARKET IS BEINSULATED FROM THE ALL. CRUDE PRODUCTION IN AMERICA ATRECORD HIGHS, DOWN BY 1%, WTI DOWN A SIMILAR AMOUNT. WTI CRUDE THIS MORNING, 76.12.DIAMONDBACK ENERGY WILL BY FELLOW OIL AND GAS PRODUCERENDEAVOR ENERGY RESOURCES IN A.

$26 BILLION CASH DEAL.SHAREHOLDERS WILL OWN 60.5% OF THE COMPANY WHEN THE DEALCLOSES, AND ENDEAVOR SHAREHOLDERS WILL HOLD THEREST. THE AGREEMENT IS JUST THE LATEST IN A STRING OF MASSIVEDEALS IN THE U.S. ENERGY SPACE. WE SEE THE SUN, CHEVRON, OXLEYALL CLOSING DEALS. LISA: WE'RE TALKING $60 BILLION FOREXXON. NOW WE HAVE $26 BILLION, NOTABLY IN STOCK AND CASH, BUTI DO FIND IT INTERESTING, HOW MUCH FURTHER CAN THIS GO, ANDWHAT IS THE PURPOSE? IS THIS BECAUSE FRANKLY, YOU'VEALREADY DRILLED THE DRILLABLE.

PLACES? THIS IS ABOUT MAXIMIZINGPRODUCTION, MAXIMIZING EFFICIENCY AND PAYING BIGDIVIDENDS. >> SOME OF THIS FINANCE WITHEQUITY, NOT RAISING DEBT. LISA: THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE'VE BEENHEARING, THAT THIS IS THE GOLDEN GOOSE FOR A LOT OFCREDIT INVESTORS, THAT IF YOU GET SMALLER COMPANIES THATENDED GETTING TAKEN OUT, YOU'RE GOING TO BUY OUT THE DEBT,THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE MORE DEBT ISSUE BECAUSE IT IS NOTATTRACTING FINANCING COSTS. I FIND THAT PRETTY COMPELLING.JONATHAN:.

INVESTORS LOOKING AHEAD TOJANUARY CPI. BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS EXPECTINGOVERALL INFLATION TO HAVE FALLEN TO 2.9% LAST MONTHMARKING THE FIRST READING BELOW 3% SINCE MARCH 2021. CORE CPI IS EXPECTED TO JUMPYEAR-OVER-YEAR, AND IF DATA COMES IN LINE WITHEXPECTATIONS, IT WOULD SUPPORT A DISINFLATIONARY TREND THATWILL DETERMINE THE TIMING AND SIZE OF THE FED EXPECTED RATECUTS THIS YEAR. CHIEF ECONOMIST AT APOLLOGLOBAL MANAGEMENT JOINS US NOW.

FOR MORE.WE WERE ALL BALLED UP ON SOFT LANDING GOLDILOCKS TALK.HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO CHANGING THAT STORY? >> I THINK IT IS VERY IRONICTHAT WE CAME IN 2020 THREE, EVERYONE SAID RECESSION,RECESSION. 2024, EVERYONE IS SAYING SOFTLANDING, SOFT LANDING. IF YOU LOOK AT THE COMPONENT OFINFLATION, YES, MAYBE IN THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO WE COULDSTILL HAVE THE DISINFLATIONARY TREND IN PLACE, BUT WE AREBEGINNING TO SEE MORE UPSIDE.

PRESSURE ON HOUSING, MOREUPSIDE PRESSURE ON WAGES ON A NUMBER OF INDICATORS AND MOREBROADLY, AN ECONOMY THAT GENERALLY IS DOING QUITE WELLBECAUSE OF THE EASING OF FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ANDTHEREFORE BECAUSE OF THE LABOR MARKET. JONATHAN:WHAT WAS YOUR BASE CASE AT THE START OF THE YEAR, AND HAS ITCHANGED YET? >> I DIDN'T EXPECT THAT THISWOULD BE A SOFT LANDING BUT THE WORRIES THAT WILL NOT HAVE ASOFT LANDING. A HIGHER THAN 50% CHANCE THATWE HAVE A HIGH LANDING, OR NO.

LANDING.THE FRAGILE SOFT LANDINGS ALMOST THE MOST UNLIKELYSCENARIO BECAUSE WE NOW HAVE A SITUATION WHERE IF WE HAD ALABOR MARKET THAT IS STILL GETTING STRONGER BECAUSE OFEASING FINANCIAL CONDITIONS, NO WONDER THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERSWERE SO GOOD IN JANUARY WHEN COMPANIES NOW ARE ISSUING ATTHE HIGHEST LEVEL IN LITERALLY DECADES.HIGH-YIELD ISSUANCE WAS VERY STRONG, IPO IS BEGINNING TOWAKE UP. OF COURSE YOU SHOULD EXPECT TOSEE THE LABOR MARKET BETTER AND.

THEREFORE WAGE INFLATION DOINGBETTER. LISA: WE DID JUST GET ANOTHER DEALANNOUNCED. MERGERS ARE REALLY PICKING UP,BUT HERE IS MY QUESTION. AT ONE POINT GREATER INFLATIONWOULD REALLY CREATE A PROBLEM FOR TREASURIES AND YIELDS GOINGHIGHER, WHEN WE PEOPLE START TO CARE ABOUT THE DEFICIT AGAIN?YOU'VE BEEN POINTING OUT OF THE SUPPLY IS JUST DRAMATIC, THATTHERE ARE $10 TRILLION OF U.S. TREASURIES COMING TO THE MARKETTHIS YEAR AND THAT THERE REALLY ARE NOT THE SAME NUMBER OFFIRES TO SET THEM UP SO WHEN.

DOES THAT BECAME A PROBLEMCONSIDERING THAT THE AUCTION CAP IN PRETTY GOOD SO FAR? >> THE INTERESTING THING ISTHAT IT USED TO BE THAT WE HAD YIELD INSENSITIVE BUYERS WHICHWAS CHINA, PEOPLE WHO REALLY DIDN'T CARE TOO MUCH ABOUT WHATTHE LEVEL OF U.S. TREASURIES WERE TRADING AT.BUT NOW WE'VE SHIFTED TO YIELD-SENSITIVE FIRES INCLUDINGU.S. HOUSEHOLDS. WE HAVE PENSION RISK TRANSFERAND A LOT ON THE INSURANCE SIDE. BROADLY SPEAKING, DOMESTICALLYBE HAVE A LOT SENSITIVE TO.

INTEREST RATE INVESTORS, THATBASICALLY MEANS THAT THE CHANGE IN THE NARRATIVE COULD BECOMEVERY BONDING. PARTICULARLY TO THINK THAT FEDIS CUTTING RATES, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN IF THOSE BUYERS OFRATES HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE YIELD SENSITIVE THAN WHAT WE HAD FORA LONG TIME? THE CHANGE IN THE FIREBASE OFTREASURIES IS ABSOLUTELY BEGINNING TO PLAY A ROLE. LISA:SO WHY HASN'T IT? PEOPLE SAY BECAUSE THE RETAILINVESTOR IS COMING IN. IS THERE A THRESHOLD AT WHICHTHE RETAIL INVESTOR GETS.

SPOOKED, STOP SPYING, AND THENIT IS A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY WERE HIGHER YIELDSBEGETS MORE SELLING, NOT BUYING? >> WHEN THE FED BEGAN TO RAISERATES, YOU SAW HOUSEHOLDS BEGIN TO BUY MORE TREASURIES.YOU WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IF THE FED BEGINS TO CUT RATES,HOUSEHOLDS ARE POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO LOSE APPETITE.THINK ABOUT ALL THE MONEY AND MONEY MARKET NEUTRAL FUNDS.A LOT OF THAT MONEY PROBABLY WOULD BEGIN TO FIND ITS WAYELSEWHERE, THE DISCUSSION IS, IF THEY'RE STILL APPETITE BYDURATION?.

>> THE IDEA THAT THE FED MAYNOT CUT RATES AS QUICKLY OR AS MUCH AS PEOPLE ARE EXPECTINGRAISES ANOTHER KIND OF QUESTION AROUND COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE.DO YOU END UP WITH A MORE SYSTEMIC PROBLEM IF RATESREMAIN HIGHER FOR LONGER IN A WAY THAT MOST PEOPLE ARE NOTGETTING AT? >> LET'S BE TOTALLY CLEAR,HIGHER COST OF CAPITAL IS FIGHTING HARDER AND HARDEREVERY SINGLE DAY IN A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT AREAS IN ONE AREA ISTHAT IF WE DO HAVE RATES HIGHER FOR LONGER BECAUSE OF THEINFLATION PROBLEM NOT GOING.

AWAY, THAT WILL CONTINUE TOCREATE MORE AND MORE RISK OF FINANCIAL STABILITY ISSUES DOWNTHE ROAD INCLUDING FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE. 11 DIFFERENT ASSET CLASSESIT REALLY IS PAGE ONE IN YOUR FINANCE TEXTBOOK.A LONGER THAT PERSISTS, THE MORE IT BITES HARDER AND HARDERNOT ONLY ON CORPORATE, BUT ALSO ON CONSUMERS.THAT IS WHY THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY WILL CONTINUETO WEIGH ON THE OUTCOME BUT IT IS DIFFERENT AS A FUNCTION OFWHO HAS MOST LEVERAGE, WHO IS.

MOST VULNERABLE, WHO HAS THELOWEST COVERAGE RATIOS? JONATHAN:I'M BIASED, BUT I AM A BIG FAN OF YOUR RESEARCH, ALWAYS HAVEBEEN. AND WEEKEND READING LIST. IT ISLIKE HAVING A PROFESSOR OVER AT APOLLO WHO GIVES YOU A READINGLIST FOR THE WEEKEND. DELINQUENCIES IS SOMETHING YOUPUSHED OUT THIS WEEKEND. HOW DOES THAT STACK UP WITHTHIS THEORY THAT THE ECONOMY IS DOING REALLY WELL, IT ISRESILIENT, IT MIGHT PUSH OUT THIS DISINFLATIONARY STORY ATTHE TIME — SAME TIME WE ARE.

SEEING DELINQUENCIES CLIMB? >> THERE IS A SPECTRUM BOTH FORCONSUMERS AND FOR FIRMS, NAMELY THOSE THAT ARE MOST IMPACTED . >> THOSE COMPANIES IN THISHOUSES THAT HAD FEWER SAVINGS THAT HAD LOWER FICA SCORES,THOSE ARE ALSO THE ONES GETTING IMPACTED.THERE IS A SPECTRUM OF THOSE BEING IMPACTED BY FED HIKES.VALUE INVESTORS, MOST IMPORTANTLY, AND VENTURECAPITAL, TECH GROWTH, SOME.

PASSIVE HEALTH CARE ANDCONSUMER RETAILER, THEY'RE THE ONES WITH MOST LEVERAGE, SEEINGTHE BIGGEST IMPACT. JONATHAN THAT ALMOST DIRECTLYSPEAK TO SOME OF THE DISSATISFACTION IN TERMS OFSOME SEGMENTS OF SOCIETY THEY HAVE WITH ECONOMY IN THISCOUNTRY. INFLATION PRESSURES ARE STILLVERY REAL FOR SOME OF THOSE FAMILIES AS WELL.THE INFLATION STAR THAT I THINK WE'VE ACCUMULATED SINCE 2020,YOU DON'T JUST LEAVE BEHIND BECAUSE INFLATION DROPS TO 2%,3%. THE PRESIDENT IS OUT THERE.

TALKING ABOUT SHRINK INFLATION.I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMICS OF THAT.WHEN YOU HEAR THINGS LIKE THIS IS DOWN TO PRICE GOUGING, THISIS DOWN TO GREED, WHAT IS YOUR REACTION TO THAT? >> GENERALLY SPEAKING IT IS NOTSURPRISING THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN THOSE THAT ARE THE MOSTVULNERABLE TO INTEREST RATES GOING UP BUT THE SOURCES OFINFLATION ARE EITHER SUPPLY CHAIN CHAINS GETTING SCREWED UPDURING THE PANDEMIC, NOT GETTING THINGS DELIVERED, ORDEMAND WHERE WE HAD A LOT OF.

FISCAL STIMULUS THAT WAS WAYMORE THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD.ALL THAT MEANT THAT WE DID GET A LOT OF INFLATION.BOTH OF HIGH INTEREST RATES, BUT ALSO HIGHER INFLATION ANDWITH THE NEW YORK FED DATA JUST SHOWED ALSO NOW IF THAT ISYOUNGER HOUSEHOLDS, HOUSEHOLDS IN THEIR 20'S AND 30'S THAT AREFALLING BEHIND ON PAYING THEIR CREDIT CARD BILLS AND THEIRAUTO BILLS AT THE FASTEST PACE SINCE 2008, SO THAT ALSO TELLSYOU GOT THE IMPACT IS THAT YOUNGER HOUSEHOLDS OF COURSEHAD MORE DEBT BECAUSE WHEN.

YOU'RE YOUNG AND BUY A HOUSE,YOU HAVE MORE DEBT. THAT MEANS THOSE WHO HAVE MOREDEBT ARE THE ONES THAT ARE SEEING THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OFRATES GOING UP. JONATHAN: THEY THINK THEY ARE SICK ANDTIRED OF BEING TOLD HOW GOOD THIS ECONOMY IS. LISA: WHICH IS WHY WE HEARD ABOUTSHRINKFLATION WHICH YOU VERY SKILLFULLY AVOIDED. JONATHAN:IN THIS WHITE HOUSE ARE STRUGGLING TO CONNECT WITHTHOSE PEOPLE PRETTY CLEARLY. >> IT RAISES THIS QUESTION OFJUST WHAT PEOPLE ARE GETTING IT.

RIGHT AT A TIME WHERE IT SEEMSLIKE IT IS MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AND PEOPLE ARE STILLFEELING THOSE HIGHER BILLS. >> I'M NOT SURE IF YOU CONNECTWITH THEM BY GOING ON TIKTOK. WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF THAT? >> MORE AND MORE YOU LOOK ATTHE STATS, THE YOUTH ARE PULLING THEIR NEWS NOT FROMMAINSTREAM MEDIA, NOT EVEN FROM TWITTER, THEY ARE ACTUALLYGETTING NEWS CLIPS FROM TIKTOK. THERE WAS A BACKDOOR THE WHITEHOUSE USED TO DO, STILL PROBABLY IS DOING WITHIN AGIVEN INTERVIEW TO SOMEONE WHO.

IS VERY PROLIFIC ON TIKTOK ANDHAVE THAT PERSON PUT OUT THE INTERVIEW BECAUSE THEY COULDN'THAVE THE PRESIDENT HAVE HIS OWN TIKTOK AND NOW THE CAMPAIGN ISSAYING WE TRADITIONALLY SPIEGEL, WE ARE GOING TO DO IT. >> JUST TO BE CLEAR, THEPRESIDENT SIGNED A LAW WHICH BANNED TIKTOK THE NONFEDERALDEVICES. ANNE-MARIE: CAMPAIGN IS DIFFERENT. JONATHAN:IT'S BANNED FROM BEING ON FEDERAL DEVICES LIKE CAMPAIGNIS OK? LISA: IT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEENPOLICY AND POLITICS BECAUSE.

ULTIMATELY YOU HAVE PEOPLESAYING THAT THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DATA AND A CHINESECOMPANY AND WHERE THAT DATA GOES, THEN YOU HAVE BEEN USINGTHAT SAME PLATFORM TO TRY TO REACH VOTERS BECAUSE THAT ISWHAT THEY ARE ON. TO ME, THIS REALLY HIGHLIGHTSTHE ROUTE WE ARE GOING TO BE IN FOR A LONG TIME. >> THIS OFTEN THAT THE SPACEBETWEEN GOOD POLITICS AND GOOD POLICY.YOU ARE ABORTING THAT ONE, AND FOR GOOD REASON.GOOD TO SEE YOU.

LET'S GET YOU AN UPDATE ONSTORIES ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. HERE IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BREEZE. >> U.S.DEFENSE SECRETARY LLOYD AUSTER HAS BEEN HOSPITALIZED FOR THESECOND TIME IN A MONTH. THE PENTAGON CHIEF WAS ADMITTEDTO WALTER REED LATE SUNDAY WITH AN APPARENT BLADDER ISSUE.HIS DEPUTY HAS TAKEN OVER FUNCTIONS AND DUTIES.IT COMES WEEKS AFTER AWESOMENESS CRITICIZED FORFAILING TO DISCLOSE THAT HE HAD BEEN HOSPITALIZED ON YOUR STATEFOR COMPLICATIONS FROM PROSTATE.

CANCER SURGERY.CITI IS FACING YOU DEMAND A CHANGE THE WAY IT MEASURED THERISK OF ITS TRADING PARTNERS. U.S. REGULATORS SENT TO THE BANKTHREE NOTICES LAST YEAR, TELLING IT TO ADDRESS THEMATTER IN THE COMING MONTHS. CITI TOLD REUTERS THAT MEETINGEXPECTATIONS WAS A TOP PRIORITY WHILE MAKING STEADY PROGRESSSIMPLIFYING AND MODERNIZING OUR BANK.PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN WILL HOST JORDAN'S KING ABDULLAH AT THEWHITE HOUSE TODAY. THE TWO ARE EXPECTED TO DISCUSSLATEST MILITARY OPERATIONS IN.

THE PORT CITY IN EFFORTS TOSECURE THE RELEASE OF ISRAELI HOSTAGES HELD IN GAZA.THE VISIT ALSO COMES AFTER LAST MONTH'S DEADLY ATTACKS ON U.S.FORCES IN JORDAN FROM IRAN-BACKED MILITIA.THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BREEZE. JONATHAN:UP NEXT, A RECORD-BREAKING SUPER BOWL. >> IT HAS BEEN AN INCREDIBLESEASON FOR THE NFL ON CBS. WE SET A HIGH WATERMARK FORRATINGS SINCE THE PROPERTY RETURNED IN 1998.ON SUNDAY, WE SET AN ALL-TIME.

VIEWING NUMBER WITH ANY LUCK.JONATHAN: THAT IS COMING UP NEXT LIVEFROM NEW YORK. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ JONATHAN: LIVE FROM NEW YORK,COUNTING AGAIN TO THE OPENING BELL, ABOUT 42 MINUTES AWAYFROM THE CASH OPEN. TREADING WATER GOING INTO CPITOMORROW MORNING. YIELDS LOWER BY A SINGLE BASISPOINT, INCLUDE PULLING LOWER TO START THE WEEK. $76 ON WTI. UNDER SURVEILLANCE THISMORNING, A RECORD-BREAKING.

SUPER BOWL. >> IT'S BEEN AN INCREDIBLESEASON ON CBS. WE SET A HIGH WATERMARK FORRATINGS SINCE THE PROPERTY RETURNED IN 1998.WE SET A HIGH WATERMARK FOR AD SALES FOR A SUPER BOWL AND ITIS LOOKING LIKE ON SUNDAY, WE WILL SET AN ALL-TIME VIEWINGNUMBER, WITH ANY LUCK. >> HEAR THE LATEST, THE CHIEFSPEEDING THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS IN SUPER BOWL 58,BECOMING THE FIRST BACK-TO-BACK CHAMPIONS IN 19 YEARS.VIEWING FIGURES ARE NOT OUT BUT.

IT IS FORECAST TO BE THE MOSTWATCHED SUPER BOWL IN HISTORY. BRANDS STILL SPENDING $7MILLION PER COMMERCIAL AS MORE FANS CUT CABLE AND HAD TOSTREAMING. JOINING US NOW IS BRIAN WESER,CAN WE JUST GET INTO THAT BRIEFLY?THE USEFULNESS OF SPENDING THAT MUCH MONEY ON A 30 A SECONDD INTHE SUPER BOWL, HOW BIG IS IT STILL? >> IT STILL MASSIVE.FOX LAST YEAR GENERATED ABOUT $600 MILLION IN REVENUE ANDPRESUMABLY PARAMOUNT WILL SEE.

MORE THAN THAT. FROM A MARKETING PERSPECTIVE,ADVERTISING IS NOT ABOUT WHETHER SOMETHING IS GOOD ORBAD. FOR THE SAKE OF REACHING AMASSIVE AUDIENCE, GETTING THIS WATERCOOLER AFFECT, BUILDING ACAMPAIGN, BUILDING BRANDS, IT REALLY IS NOT COMPARABLE TO THESUPER BOWL. JONATHAN: TV IS LOSING VIEWERS BECAUSEWHEN YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE MOST-WATCHED THINGS IN THE LAST12 MONTHS OR SO, IT IS DOMINATED BY SPORTS.SPORTS SEEMS TO BE THE LAST.

PLACE WE HAVE THESEAPPOINTMENTS TO VIEW WHERE ADVERTISERS WANT TO BE BECAUSETHEY KNOW THAT IS WHERE EYEBALLS CONVENE AND GETTOGETHER AT EXACTLY THE SAME TIME.HOW UNIQUE IS THAT IN AMERICAN FOOTBALL NOW VS., SAY,EVERYTHING ELSE? >> IT REALLY IS AMERICANFOOTBALL OVER EVERYTHING ELSE FOR THE UNITED STATES INPARTICULAR. IT DOMINATES THE INDUSTRY RIGHTNOW, AND THAT IS WHY THIS WHOLE ANNOUNCEMENT LAST WEEK FROMDISNEY AND FOXX AND WARNER IS.

SO POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT,BECAUSE THAT IS ALREADY A SITUATION WHERE FROM ANADVERTISING PERSPECTIVE, YOU REALLY VALUE THE FACT THAT YOUGET CASUAL VIEWERS. THAT IS THE ONLY WAY YOU MAKETHIS SO IMPORTANT AS AN ADVERTISING VEHICLE.GET PEOPLE WHO DON'T NECESSARILY WANT TO PAY ALL THE CART FOR THAT SPORTS PROGRAM,AND THE MORE THAT IT SHIFTS STREAMING WORLD, THE HARDER ITWILL BE TO REACH AUDIENCES AND THE MORE VALUABLE IT WILLBECOME FOR ADVERTISERS.

LISA:WHAT WAS ADVERTISED AND HOW YOU VIEW THAT WITH ENTERTAINMENT, IF THE SERVICE CONTRACT 6MILLION SUBSCRIBERS, AK CHARGE AT LEAST $40 A MONTH.THEY ARE DISCUSSING A PRICE THAT IS $50 PER MONTH ACCORDINGTO PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER.IS THAT THE PRICE RANGE YOU ARE LOOKING AT> >> IT'S NOT CLEAR,BUT REPORTS SUGGEST SOMETHING ALONG THOSE LINES.I'M JUST KIND OF MYSTIFIED HOW THEY ARE GOING TO THREAD THENEEDLE AND FIND AN AUDIENCE.

THAT CARES ENOUGH ABOUT SPORTSTO PAY THAT MUCH BUT ISN'T ALREADY SUBSCRIBING TO PAY-TV.IN OTHER WORDS, PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY TRADITIONAL PAY-TVSUBSCRIBERS AND THAT IS GOING TO DIMINISH THE VALUE OF THEOVERALL ECOSYSTEM. THAT SAID, AS I POINTED OUT,WHEN HULU WAS CREATED IT WAS CONSIDERED CLOUDCO BECAUSE ANYTHE CONCERNS AROUND DYSFUNCTION OF THE JOINT VENTURE.THERE IS THE RISK THAT THIS BECOMES 2.0. LISA:I'M CURIOUS ABOUT WHAT YOU THOUGHT ABOUT THEADVERTISEMENTS.

WHAT WAS YOUR BIG TAKEAWAY?MINE WAS PERSONALLY JUST ABOUT MOVIES BEING ADVERTISED, THATTHEY ALL PAID SO MUCH MONEY AND SAID GO LOOK AT THE TRAILER.WHAT WAS YOUR TAKE AWAY? >> I DIDN'T EVEN WATCH THEGAME, I WAS TOO BUSY WATCHING OTHER THINGS. BUT I DID SEE THE SARAH B ADAND I THOUGHT IT WAS QUITE AMUSING.I THINK THIS FINE LINE OF BALANCING CELEBRITY AND GRAND,AND THAT WAS A REALLY GOOD EXAMPLE FOR A L'OREAL PRODUCT,BUT IT MADE THE POINT WITH THE.

BRAND IS TRYING TO DO.THEY ARE GOING TO MAKE THAT BRAND MORE OF A HOUSEHOLD NAMETHAN BEFORE. ANNMARIE: BETH MGM SPENT $50 MILLION ONTHE AD. WHAT IS THE BANG FURTHER BUCKON SOMETHING >> LIKE THAT? >>IF ALL YOU'RE DOING ISSPENDING $7 MILLION AND YOU THINK THAT IS ENOUGH, IT IS NOT.YOU GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION BUT KEEP IN MIND MILLIONS OFDOLLARS TYPICALLY GO INTO THE WHOLE PROCESS OF READING ACAMPAIGN AND THIS SHOULD BE THE START OF A CAMPAIGN, NOT THEEND OF THE.

IN SOME CATEGORIES, SERVICES INPARTICULAR, IT COULD BE 40%, 50% OF REVENUE HAS TO BEDEVOTED TO ADVERTISING AND MARKETING. SPENDING $50 MILLION ISN'TANYTHING. JONATHAN: HOW MUCH REVENUE FROM A LUXURYPLAYER IS ON MARKETING? >> IT'S ACTUALLY VERY HIGH FORSOME. SOMETHING LIKE 30% OF THE TOTALREVENUE. WHAT IS REALLY INTERESTING ISYOU LOOK AT LVMH, THEY DON'T SPEND MUCH IN PAID ADVERTISINGTHROUGH TRADITIONAL MEDIUM.

THEY DO A LOT OF SOCIAL, ANDEVENT-RELATED MARKETING, BUT THEY DON'T SPEND A LOT ON TV.JONATHAN: TALKING ABOUT A VERY UNIQUEOPPORTUNITY TO MARKET WHATEVER PRODUCT OR SERVICE YOU ARETRYING TO SELL. HOW WAS THAT STACKING UPELSEWHERE? >> IT IS GROWING QUITEHELPFULLY EVERYWHERE AT THE INDUSTRY LEVEL, BUT TELEVISIONIS NOT. TELEVISION PROBABLY DECLINED BYSINGLE-DIGIT LEVELS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER AND EXPECTSOMETHING SIMILAR TO 2024.

MEANWHILE, TOTAL ADVERTISING ISGROWING IN THE MID-SIGEL DIGITS EXCLUDING POLITICAL ADVERTISING.DIGITAL ADVERTISING AND AMAZON, TIKTOK ARE THE PRIMARYBENEFICIARIES. JONATHAN: COSTING $7 MILLION.I THINK THAT A $7 MILLION FOR A 30 SECOND SPOT. LISA: I GUESS IF YOU'RE CAPTURING HOWTHE EYEBALLS, 49% OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS WATCH THE SUPER BOWL.IF IT IS THAT KIND OF PROPORTION, IT.I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY IT IS GOING TO BE MORE THAN THAT.LISA:.

I WONDER HOW MANY PEOPLE WEREACTUALLY WATCHING THE GAME. HONESTLY, HOW MANY PEOPLEACTUALLY WATCH THE GAME? JONATHAN:THERE'S THE GAME, THERE'S THE COMMERCIAL BREAK, THE HALFTIME,AND THEN YOU GOT TAYLOR SWIFT. I KNOW EVERYONE IS SICK TODEATH OF HEARING THE TAYLOR SWIFT EFFECT BUT YOU HAVE TOIMAGINE IT IS PRETTY REAL. LISA: THERE WERE A COUPLE OFADVERTISERS THAT WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN THERE IF IT WERE NOT FORTHE FEMALE BASE. SHE WAS ONLY SHOWN FOR 55SECONDS. JONATHAN:.

HOW MUCH IS THAT?LIKE $15 MILLION? SOMETHING LIKE THAT.PEOPLE WILL WORK THAT OUT FOR YOU.COMING UP TOMORROW, JIM DELTA, APOLLO ASSET MANAGEMENTCOPRESIDENT. CHIEF ECONOMIST AT WELLS FARGOAND DAVID KELLY, ALL JOINING US TOMORROW MORNING FOR CPITUESDAY. THAT DATA, 8:30 EASTERN TIME.OPENING BELL THIS MORNING, EQUITIES JUST A LITTLE BITSOFTER AFTER A RECORD-BREAKING STREET CONTINUES ON FRIDAY.CLOSING NORTH OF 5K.

MORE STILL TO COME POTENTIALLY.FROM NEW YORK, THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

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