Can China Rep Up With U.S. Nuclear Submarine Tech? | WSJ U.S. vs. China

– This is the USS Louisiana. It's one of the Navy'scurrent 14 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. This is China's version, the Type 094. It's one of the nation'ssix nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. These submarines serve the same purpose. They are a sort of insurance policy in the event of a nuclear attack.

But to do its job, eachof these submarines has to do one thing really well: hide. (light music) We compare the Ohio classsubmarines' technical capabilities and missiles with the Jin classes to see which comes out on top, and take a look at whateach country has in store for the future of these nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.

(fanfare music) On June 9th, 1959, adecade into the Cold War, the United States launched this submarine, the USS George Washington. It was the Navy's first nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. These SSBNs are nuclear-powered, carrying nuclear missiles, and are one arm of the USmilitary's nuclear triad,.

Which includes intercontinentalballistic missiles, ballistic missile submarines, and bombers. And for the United States,SSBNs became a crucial part of its nuclear triad becauseof their survivability. That is, their ability to remain safe from anti-submarine warfare, and, if needed, launchmissiles past enemy defenses. In fact, SSBNs are the mostsurvivable arm in the triad.

So in the 1980s, the first Ohio class nuclear-powered ballistic missilesubmarine entered service. The Ohio class, still active today, was the Navy's sixth generation of SSBNs. 18 submarines in this class were built over the next 16 years, though four were later converted into cruise missile submarines. As these Ohio class SSBNs were procured,.

China was building its firstballistic missile submarine, the Type 092, which becameoperational in 1983. They only fielded one, butit marked a turning point in China's nuclear capabilities. A few decades later, in 2006, satellite imagery spotted thenext generation, the Type 094. In its 2022 annual report, the Department of Defense says China has six operationalJin class submarines.

Running deterrence patrols. But these Type 094s are muchnoisier than the 1970s era Soviet nuclear submarines. – And that would can safely say undermine the overall survivabilityof the Chinese submarines, and therefore underminesthe overall credibility of a sea-based nuclear deterrence. – Dr. TongZhao has been researching China's nuclear capabilitiesand strategic security issues.

For about a decade. The Ohio class submarinesare capable of carrying up to 24 missiles, but to comply with the New START treaty only 20 are allowed to be carried. In contrast, the Jin class submarines can only carry up to 12 missiles. And like each submarine survivability, the missiles they carryare also critical factors.

In each military's strategy. The Navy's SSBNs have helda variety of missiles. Today, the Ohio classsubmarines carry this missile, the Trident II. It's 44-feet long, hasan 83-inch diameter, and weighs 130,000 pounds. That's about the weightof five school buses. Although the Trident II cancarry up to eight warheads, it likely carries only three or four.

To comply with the New START treaty. But most importantly, it has a range of about 4,000 nautical miles. And since 2017, the Navy hasbeen updating these missiles to extend their life andincrease their range even more to about 6,480 nautical miles. The Department of Defense says that China's Jin classsubmarines carry either the JL-2 or its next iteration, the JL-3.

The JL-2 has one warhead, while the JL-3 has multiple. The JL-2's range is estimated to be about 3,780 nautical miles, and the JL-3's range reachesat least 5,400 nautical miles. This means that from China's shores, the JL-2 has sufficient rangeto target Guam or Alaska. But the JL-3 mighttarget the continental US from areas near China's coast.

But,- Even if you put a longer range missiles onthe Jin class submarines, it's still the Jin classsubmarines. (chuckles) They're still as noisy as the old ones. – Hans Kristensenhas studied the status of American nuclearweapons since the 1980s. And since noisiness impactsan SSBNs survivability, it makes it harder for China's submarines to travel further from theshores without being detected.

– Even if you get longer range, that range is not sufficient to cover all of the continental United States, unless you sail far into the Pacific. – And that's also difficult for China's submarines to do because of US anti-submarine defenses across the Pacific Ocean. – A sea-based nuclearcapabilities is one area.

In which China still lagsbehind the United States in a very significant manner. China understands that eventually nuclear submarine may bethe most survivable part of a country's nuclear arsenal. So China had this long-term vision to eventually acquire very advanced nuclear submarine technologies. – So what's Chinaworking on to close the gap?.

China is expected to begin construction on its next generationof SSBN, the Type 096, in the first part of this decade. These submarines will run withthe existing Jin class ones, and experts like Dr. Zhaosay that the Type 096 will be quieter than its predecessor. But the US is forging ahead, too. Construction on thenext generation of SSBNs is already underway.

These Columbia classboomers will be even bigger than their predecessors. – This thing about themodernization cycle, you know, they don'thappen at the same time in China and the United States. So there's sometimes sortof a simplistic tendency or a temptation in the debate for nuclear advocates to say, “See, they're modernizing, we're not.

Therefore, we're behind.” But now we have actually, now we're entering our modernization cycle and that will run for thenext two to three decades. – The Ohio class submarines are reaching the end of their lifetime. In just a few years, thefirst of its generation, the USS Ohio, will retire. By 2040 they are set to bereplaced by Columbia class SSBNs.

The Navy is acquiring 12 new SSBNs and each one will haveroom for 16 missiles, eight less than theOhio class could carry. Cutting back might seem counterintuitive, but the US militaryestimates no more are needed to meet nuclear deterrence requirements. And the US Navy says theColumbia class submarines will be even quieter. That's because they're being built.

With an electric drive propulsion train versus the traditionalmechanical drive system. So even if China's Type096 is considerably quieter than its predecessor, it could be far less stealthy than the US' upcoming Columbia class. – So we may see someincremental improvements. That doesn't mean that China will be at the same technical level.

With this American counterpart. (light music)

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