Davos Day 1 | Bloomberg Surveillance 01/16/2024

ANNOUNCER: THIS IS “BLOOMBERGSURVEILLANCE” LIVE FROM THE WORLD ECONOMICFORUM IN DAVOS. JONATHAN: I'VE GOT ONE QUESTION, IS ITGOOD MORNING OR GOOD AFTERNOON? THIS MATTERS. LISA:IT'S GOOD AFTERNOON, SORRY TO SAY. JONATHAN:GOOD AFTERNOON, THIS IS “BLOOMBERG SERVEILLANCE”ALONGSIDE LISA ABRAMOWICZ. I'M JONATHAN FERRO.TO GET US THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ANNMARIE HORDERN. BRAMO ON IOWA.LISA: EVERYONE FOCUSING A DONALDTRUMP, NO ONE REALLY WANTS TO.

TALK ABOUT IT WHEN YOU ARE INFRONT OF A GROUP, BUT THIS IS THE AWKWARD ELEPHANT IN THEROOM WHEN YOU TALK IN FRONT OF A PANEL, BUT IT IS DEFINITELYEVERYTHING THAT EVERYONE IS ANALYZING AND FRANKLY,UNPREPARED FOR AS THE VILLA DISCUSSED. JONATHAN:IN MANY WAYS, DAVOS STARTED LAST WEEK ON FRIDAY WITHCHRISTINE LAGARDE TOOK FRENCH TV. THAT SET THE TONE FORCONVERSATIONS THROUGH ALL OF THIS WEEK. ANNMARIE:TRUMP IS NOT JUST DOMINATING IN IOWA, HE'S DOMINATING THECONVERSATIONS HERE BECAUSE.

EUROPE, EVEN THOUGH THEY HADFOR YEARS TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIALLY ANOTHER TRUMP 2.0 ADMINISTRATION, THEY ARE RUNNING ON — AROUND ALMOSTPANICKED. >> TALK ABOUT THE SUBSTANCE.PRESIDENT LAGARDE IS ESSENTIALLY SAYING THAT THEFORMER PRESIDENT IF HE BECOMES THE NEXT PRESIDENT IS GOING TOBE A THREAT TO EUROPEAN GOALS. CLIMATE, NATO, ETC.WHAT HAS EUROPE DONE FOR AMERICA RECENTLY?WHAT HAS EUROPE DONE FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE WHITEHOUSE?.

I'M THINKING OF SEVERAL KEYAREAS. WE COULD TALK ABOUT CHINA, WECOULD TALK ABOUT NATO. WHAT HAPPENS TO MILITARYSPENDING FOR EUROPE ACROSS THE LAST 10 YEARS?TO YOUR POINT, THEY HAD FOUR YEARS TO MEET THAT TASK. LISA:FEELS LIKE YOU ARE BUYING INTO THE MESSAGE OF REBUILDING TRUSTWHICH IS THE THEME OF THIS YEAR'S MEETING.ARE WE SEEING A SPLINTERING IN THAT ORDER THAT IS REALLYHIGHLIGHTING SOME OF THE TENSIONS THAT ARE UNDERPINNINGTHIS PARTICULAR MEETING?.

THAT IS WHAT IS COMING TO THEFLOOR WITH SOME ANXIETY AROUND TRUMP. ANNMARIE:WHEN IT COMES TO NATO, PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY IS HERE ANDHE IS MAKING HIS PITCH TO BUSINESS LEADERS, TOUR LEADERSTHAT THEY NEED MORE SUPPORT. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE WARSAWSECURITY FORM THAT HAPPENED A FEW MONTHS AGO, A NUMBER OF U.K.DEFENSE SAID YOU ARE NOT HITTING A 2% TARGET.THIS IS SOMETHING TRUMP LAMBASTED GERMANY AND THEOTHERS FOR IN THIS DEFENSE MINISTER SAID IF WE ARE NOTHITTING THE 2% TARGET NOW WHEN.

THERE IS A WAR IN EUROPE, WHATELSE DO YOU NEED TO WAKE UP TO THESE RISKS? JONATHAN:THIS IS GOING TO BE A MASSIVE FOCAL POINT FOR THE WEEKENDTHAT WAS, SWITZERLAND. LET'S START WITH THE PRICEACTION AND THE EQUITY MARKET JUST A LITTLE BIT SOFTER TOSTART THE WEEK, A TOUCH NEGATIVE ON THE S&P.DOWN BY ABOUT 0.6%. YELP SHIFTING HIGHER ON THE10-YEAR. LISA: EVERYONE IS TRYING TO PUSH BACK.EVERY SINGLE PERSON SEEMS TO BE SAYING THE SAME THING.WE HAVE AN INCREDIBLE LINEUP.

TODAY AND VERSE WE ARE GOING TO START OFF WITH KEN, FORMER IMFCHIEF ECONOMIST, WE ARE GOING TO BE SPEAKING WITH THE HEAD OFMODERNA, SOUTH AFRICAN RESERVE BANK GOVERNOR, THAT IS ALLCOMING UP IN THE NEXT 90 MINUTES OR SO AS WE ARE HERE INTHE BEAUTIFUL SWISS ALPS. JONATHAN:LET'S BE VERY CLEAR, WE GOT LUCKY.YOU ARE EUROPEAN-BASED ANCHOR WORKING FOR BLOOMBERG TV, YOUHAVE TO DO THIS IN THE FREEZING COLD. U.S.HOURS, BY MIDDAY SWISS TIME,.

THE SUN STARTS TO COME OUT.LISA: WE COULD RECONSIDER THAT. JONATHAN:LET'S KICK OFF THE SITUATION WITH A HARVARD PROFESSOR ANDFORMER IMF CHIEF ECONOMIST. GOOD MORNING, PROFESSOR.FOR GOOD AFTERNOON. LET'S GO WITH GOOD AFTERNOONAND LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.YOU WROTE A FANTASTIC PIECE JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS ANDPULLED UP WITH A PIECE IN PROJECT SYNDICATE ABOUT THEGLOBAL ECONOMY NOT BEING DOWN WITH THE WORDS.

>> THERE SEEMS TO BE THISCONSENSUS IN DAVOS BUT I WOULD ALSO SAY MORE BROADLY IN THESTATES THAT IT'S NOT GOING TO BE AS GOOD AS 2023, WHICH WASSURPRISINGLY GOOD. BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO BE BAD.INFLATION IS GOING TO COME DOWN, SOFT LANDING, AND THERESEEMS TO BE VERY LITTLE UNDERSTANDING THAT THERE'S ALOT OF VOLATILITY AROUND THAT. YOU LOOK AT THE GEOPOLITICALSITUATION, FORGET ABOUT TRUMP WHICH WE WERE TALKING ABOUT,BUT THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IS LIKE NOTHING I'VE SEEN IN MYPROFESSIONAL LIFETIME.

I MEAN, EXACTLY WHERE WE ARE INCOLD WAR TWO, BUT WE ARE IN COLD WAR TWO.PICK IT UP TO BE HOTTER COLD WAR TO THAN IT WAS.AND THAT IS VERY DESTABILIZING. THINK WITH THE 70'S FOR LIFE. PART OF THAT WAS ONCE, BUT ITWAS ALSO GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY.I THINK THERE'S A LOT OF VOLATILITY. IT IS NOT ALL BAD. WE COULD HAVE A GOOD YEAR, BUTTHAT IS REALLY HANGING OVER OUR HEAD.

>> WHAT DO YOU DO WITH YOUDON'T KNOW WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW? WHAT YOU DO WITH HEY, PRESIDENTTRUMP COMING IN 2.0? >> THOSE ARE TWO SEPARATEQUESTIONS, ONE IS A LOT OF VOLATILITY ANOTHER IS EXTREMEVOLATILITY. [APPLAUSE] I THINK BUT — [LAUGHTER]I THINK VOLATILITY IS PROBABLY NOT GOOD FOR RISKY ASSETS INGENERAL. THAT IS WHAT WE TEACH INECONOMICS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERED SEA GETS CLOSE DOWN FOR SIX MONTHS AND IT ADDS TO INFLATIONAND THE PRICES OF EVERYTHING,.

EVEN IF YOU BELIEVE ON THEOTHER CITED MIGHT BE SMOOTH, AI KICKS IN EARLY AND GROWTH ISGOOD, OUR MODELS SAY THAT PRICES SHOULD BE LOWER IN THATCASE. I MEAN, I HAVE NO IDEA HOW TOINTERPRET THE MARKET. IT SEEMS VERY SANGUINE.EVEN WHEN I LOOK AT THINGS LIKE OIL PRICES, I DON'T GET IT.WHY ISN'T THERE MORE OF A PREMIUM BUILT-IN?THEY JUST THINK THIS IS GOING TO BE OVER A WEEK?AT LEAST THE POLITICAL SCIENTISTS I TALKED TO SAY IFYOU LOOK AT UKRAINE, IF YOU.

LOOK AT WHAT IS GOING ON IN THEMIDDLE EAST, IF IT IS THE SAME NEXT YEAR, THAT IS THE GOODOUTCOME, THAT IS VERY RISKY. >> SO FAR, OIL VESSELS HAVEBEEN ABLE TO GET TO THE RED SEA. AND A LOT OF IT HAS BEENCONSUMER GOODS, THOSE VESSELS. IS IT HITTING SOMEONE'S BOTTOMLINE AT THIS POINT TO INCREASE INFLATION? >> THE QUESTION IS WHAT IS NEXT.IF IT PICKS UP, WHERE IS IT GOING?CERTAINLY SHIPPING RATES HAVE GONE WAY UP THAT EVENTUALLYHITS ON THE COMPONENT OF WHAT.

YOU PAY. BUT WE ARE SORT OF IN AVOLATILE STAGE. IT IS NOT THAT WHAT ISHAPPENING IS GOING TO MAKE INFLATION GO TO THE ROOF, IT ISSORT OF WHAT HAPPENS. YOU SAME THING ABOUT RUSSIA ANDUKRAINE. I SUPPORT UKRAINE, I'VE WORKEDWITH UKRAINIANS, BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN A GOOD YEAR, I DON'T KNOWWHAT ELSE TO SAY ABOUT IT. THERE ARE RISKS OF SOMETHINGGETTING WORSE AND HOW THAT FEEDS INTO MARKETS AND HOW THATFEEDS INTO PRICES AND EVERYTHING.

>> SO YOU DON'T BUY THAT THESORT OF LULL OF 13 MILLION PLUS BARRELS OF OIL PER DAY IN THEU.S. BEING PUMPED COULD BE OFFSETALL THAT GEOPOLITICAL RISK? >> WELL IT HAS, IT HAS BEEN AFACTOR, BUT UP TO A POINT. IT DOESN'T OFFSET ALL THEGEOPOLITICAL RISK BECAUSE IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT OIL PRICES, ITIS ABOUT OTHER COMMODITIES, IT IS ABOUT VESTMENT, IS THAT MANYGLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS, MANY THINGS. JONATHAN:WE STARTED THE PROGRAM THIS AFTERNOON BY TALKING ABOUT WHATWAS ABOUT TO HAPPEN IN THE.

UNITED STATES AND HOW EUROPE ASA CONTINENT WITH RESPOND TO IT. WHAT STRIKES ME EARLY ON IN THEABSENCE OF A CONVERSATION ABOUT WHAT ON EARTH YOUR ITSELF, HOWBROKEN THE GERMAN GROWTH MODEL IS, HOW IT HAS BEEN TOTALLYEXPOSED OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, ENERGY WITH RUSSIA, THEFRACTION CHINA, AND MAYBE THE WILLINGNESS OF THE UNITEDSTATES TO PROVIDE DEFENSE SUPPORT IF WE DO GET THE FORMERPRESIDENT BACK IN THE WHITE HOUSE.WHAT IS THE EUROPEAN GROWTH MODEL GOING TO BE, AND WHATDOES THAT DISCUSSION SOUND LIKE.

TO YOU? >> IT IS A REALLY GOOD QUESTION.A CONVERSATION I'VE HAD WITH MANY EUROPEANS IS ARE YOUPLANNING TO DO ANYTHING FOR YOUR OWN DEFENSE?DO YOU REALIZE THAT EVEN IF BIDEN WINS, IT IS NOT CLEAR WEARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO PROJECT DEFENSE SPENDING AT THE SAMELEVEL IF THERE'S TWO THEATERS, MUCH LESS THREE THEATERS?AS FAR AS I UNDERSTAND, EUROPE IS DEPLETED ITS STOCKS OFMUNITIONS. RUSSIA HAS BUILT UP HIS WARMACHINE. EUROPE, NOT REALLY.

THAT IS JUST ONE EXAMPLE.I THINK YOU ARE ASKING ABOUT THE EUROPEAN GROWTH MODEL ANDESPECIALLY GERMANY. MAYBE MY PERCEPTION OF WATCHINGTHIS FOR A LONG TIME IS THAT GERMANY WAS THE SICK MAN OFEUROPE. WHEN I WAS WITH THE IMF, THATWITH THE LINE. THAT WAS THE HEADLINE OF THEECONOMIST. JONATHAN: WELL, IT WAS THE 90'S. >> IT WAS THE EARLY 2000'S.AND THEN THEY REINVENTED THEMSELVES WITH THE REFORMS.

THAT THEY DID THAT MADE IT ALITTLE BIT EASIER TO FIRE WORKERS AND THINGS LIKE THAT,AND THEN THEY HAVE UNDONE EVERYTHING WITH PENSIONS ANDEVERYTHING. THEY'VE GONE TO A MUCH MOREFRENCH-STYLE MODEL, AND THEY ARE GETTING FRENCH STYLE GROWTHRATES. AND AT THE SAME TIME, CHINA MAYNOT BE THE EXPORT DESTINATION THAT WAS.THE ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE COMING FROM CHINA INSTEAD OFTHE OTHER WAY AROUND. I MEAN, I'M A BELIEVER INGERMANY THAT EAST GERMANY WAS.

SUCCESSFUL UNDER THE RUSSIANS,THE MOST SUCCESSFUL OF THE SOVIET BLOC.THEY WILL REINVENT THEMSELVES, BUT IT'S NOT HAPPENING IN THECURRENT ADMINISTRATION. SO MORE BROADLY IN EUROPE, YOUKNOW, THERE'S DEFINITELY A QUESTION OF WHAT THE GROWTHMODEL IS AND IS A LITTLE BIT LIKE A DEER IN THE HEADLIGHTSYEAR OF RUSSIA ON ONE SIDE, THE U.S.PROBABLY IN RETREAT FROM EUROPE IF IT IS TRUMP BECAUSE HE ISRETREATING FROM EVERYTHING. IF IT IS BIDEN, BECAUSE HE ISTRYING TO SPREAD HIMSELF TOO.

THIN.ONE WAY OR THE OTHER, LESSON EUROPE.WHAT ARE YOU DOING ABOUT IT? AND I JUST GET BLANK STARES. >> WHAT ABOUT THE U.S.GROWTH MODEL IN THE DEFICIT IN THE UNITED STATES THAT THEY ARERUNNING IN THE 10 YEARS OR SO? ARE WE PAYING MORE ON INTERESTPAYMENTS THEN DEFENSE BILLS? >> I BELIEVE, AND THEY SAIDTHIS LAST YEAR WHEN I VISITED, THAT THE ERA WHERE INTERESTRATES ARE ZERO AND EVERYTHING IS FREE IS OVER WE NEVER SHOULDHAVE THOUGHT EVERYTHING WAS.

FREE. INTEREST RATES OFF A CLIFFAFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS. IF YOU LOOK AT A LONG HISTORYOF INTEREST RATE AND REAL INTEREST RATES AS I HAVE, WEHAD PERIODS WHERE IT HAS BEEN LOW BEFORE, BUT THEN WE HADPERIODS WHERE IT IS HIGH BEFORE. I THINK WE ARE MUCH MORE ONTREND NOW IN WHERE INTEREST RATES ARE.IF THAT IS CASE, THERE'S A LOT MORE ADJUSTING TO DO, AND THERESEEMS TO BE ZERO POLITICAL APPETITE IN WASHINGTON.THE ONLY TIME THEY CAN KIND OF GET THINGS UNDER CONTROL ISWHEN THERE IS A DIVIDED.

GOVERNMENT AND THEY CAN'T AGREEON ANYTHING. BUT CERTAINLY IF YOU'VE GOT THEDEMOCRATS WEAVING INTO OFFICE IN A BIGGER WAY THAN LAST TIME,YOU KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.AND TRUMP WILL RUN DEFICITS. I HATE TO PREDICT ANYTHING HE'SGOING TO DO BECAUSE THE WHOLE PROBLEM IS HE IS COMPLETELYUNPREDICTABLE, BUT THERE'S NO APPETITE FOR THAT.AND WHAT IS THE ENDGAME TO THAT? THE ENDGAME IS WE ARE GOING TOGET THESE DOUBTS OF INFLATION LIKE WE HAD.AND THAT IS NOT AN END IN.

ITSELF BECAUSE THEN THE BOUT OFINFLATION EVENTUALLY FEED INTO INTEREST RATES, AND WE DON'TBELIEVE THAT INFLATION IS GOING BACK TO 2%, AND THAT IS A BADCYCLE. WE'VE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE. >> GIVEN THE FACT THAT EVERYONEIS EXPECTING THE FED TO CUT RATES, POSSIBLY SIX TIMES THISYEAR, WHAT DO YOU THINK SORT OF THE END PLACE FOR THIS RATECUTTING CYCLE COULD BE? >> I MEAN, I THINK WE END UP AT3.5% AT THE VERY END OF THIS CYCLE. SOMETHING LIKE THAT.

LONG-TERM RATES AT 4%, FIVEPERCENT, SOMETHING LIKE THAT IN THE VERY LONG RUN. BUT I THINK WHAT HAPPENED INTHE NEXT YEAR, THE SIX RATE CUTS, THAT IS A PIPE DREAM.THAT IS NOT HAPPENING. THERE IS A CHANCE.THE ONE THING WE COULD POSSIBLY BE SURE OF IS THAT WHATEVER THECONSENSUS IS HERE, AND NOT JUST HERE, IT IS GOING TO BE LONG,THAT IF WE GET A DEEP RECESSION AND DEFINITELY COULD HAPPEN.HOW, I DON'T KNOW. 25% CHANCE IT HAPPENS.THEY WILL CUT RATES A LOT.

NOT SIX TIMES. THEY COULD CUT RATES 15 TIMES,I'M NOT DOING THE MATH RIGHT, BUT A LOT OF TIMES, AND THATCOULD DRIVE INTEREST RATES TO 1%.THAT COULD BE BUILT INTO THAT SIX RATE CUTS POSSIBLY.JONATHAN: THIS WAS GREAT, FANTASTIC TOSTART THE WEEK WITH YOU. I THINK WE CAN ALL AGREE THATTHIS FORM OFTEN TURNS OUT TO BE A HIGHLIGHT REEL OF THATFORECAST, ISN'T THAT WHAT OFTEN HAPPENS? LISA:IT IS OFTEN WHEN EVERYONE SAYS.

IT IS GOING TO BE AN AMAZINGYEAR AND THEN YOU GET A PANDEMIC OR EVERYTHING ISTERRIBLE. JONATHAN: THE COMMENTS ARE EUROPE — ONYOUR ARE ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL FOR THE CONVERSATION.WHEN EUROPEANS STARTED TO BECOME FEARFUL ABOUT THE FUTUREOF U.S. POLICY. I THINK THE EUROPEANS NEED TOFOCUS ON THEMSELVES A LITTLE BIT MORE, ABOUT WHAT THEY AREDOING NEXT UP NEXT, LIBBY CANCELED IS COMING UP TO BREAKDOWN THE POLITICS. THE FRONT RUNNER IN THEREPUBLICAN PARTY IS ABOUT TO.

RUN AWAY WITH IT ALL. ♪ >> TALK ABOUT ORGANIC, WHICH OFCOURSE IS THE COURT. PEOPLE TALK ABOUT M&A, BUT SORTOF NOT AS MUCH IS TALKED ABOUT HOW MUCH ENTERPRISE VALUE GETSCREATED BY PROPERLY AFFECTING. THAT IS THE SPIRIT WITH WHICH ITHINK ABOUT OPENAI. WE JUST WANT TO HAVE A GOODCOMMERCIAL PARTNERSHIP BE IN ONE OF THE INVESTORS IN THEENTITY, EVEN IN THE WAY THEY ARE STRUCTURED.SO WHEN I WOULD LIKE IS GOOD.

GOVERNANCE AND REAL STABILITY.JONATHAN: THAT WAS MICROSOFT'S CHAIRMANAND CEO DISCUSSING THE LATEST INVESTMENT AND PARTNERSHIPOPENAI. TALKING OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DOMINATINGDISCUSSION TO THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM.HERE IN SWITZERLAND, GOING TO THE MARKET OPEN IN THE LATER ONTHIS MORNING. EQUITY FUTURES ON THE S&P 500PULLING BACK JUST A TOUCH. NEGATIVE BY 0.5%.A BUSY WEEK AGAIN REALLY FOR EARNINGS.WE HEAR FROM GOLDMAN AND MORGAN.

STANLEY A LITTLE BIT LATER.LISA: AND LOVE THAT WE ARE NOT REALLYMENTIONING IT, EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD BE FRONT AND CENTER.WE HAD THE BIG SIMILE FROM THE MORGAN STANLEY-GOLDMAN SACHSCOMPETITION. JONATHAN: WE WILL HEAR FROM SONALI ALITTLE BIT LATER. A ARRANGE OF EVENTS HAPPENINGON THE SIDELINES. ALWAYS THE SIDELINES, A RANGEOF EVENTS HAPPENING ON THE SIDELINES OF THIS SUMMITINCLUDING THIS ONE. BILL GATES, THE COCHAIRMEN OFTHE BILL AND MELINDA GATES.

FOUNDATION SPEAKING TO FRANCINELACQUA AT BLOOMBERG HOUSE IN DALLAS. LET'S TAKE A LISTEN. >> WHICH IS VERY HIGH IMPACT TOMAKE SURE THAT AS WELL-SPEND AND THAT FEEL GOOD ABOUT, OK,YOU'RE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RESULT WITH ONLY A TINY, TINYPORTION OF YOUR BUDGET, AND THERE ARE NOT ONLY HUMANITARIANBENEFITS, STABILITY, ECONOMY, ENVIRONMENT, HUGE BENEFITSBECAUSE AS WE MAKE THE WORLD HEALTHY, THAT IS WHERE YOU GETPOPULATION GROWTH TO A STEADY STATE.

>> SO WANT TO FOCUS ON INHEALTH? WE HAVE SOME PRETTY INCREDIBLEGADGETS THAT YOU USE, ALSO AI TO SCAN FOR EXAMPLE WHEN EMAILSARE PREGNANT, WHETHER THE BABY IS OK.BUT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS, WHAT WITH YOUR PRIORITIES? BILL:I'VE BEEN AMAZED AT THE SPEED OF INNOVATION.THAT'S EVEN BEFORE NOW WE WILL USE AI TOOLS TO DESIGN NEWVACCINE AND GET AT THE VERY TOUGHEST PROBLEMS LIKE GETTINGA GRADE A VACCINE. THIS IS A DEVICE THAT WILL COST$1000 OR LESS, AND WE CONNECTED.

TO AI SOFTWARE, SO THE COST PERDELIVERY IS LEFT AT ONE DOLLAR. WHERE YOU SCAN AND YOU SEE ISTHERE ANYTHING ABOUT THE CORD FOR THE AMNIOTIC SAC THAT THATWOMAN IS LIKELY GOING TO NEED A C-SECTION? AND SO WE FUNDED LOOKING ATTENS OF THOUSANDS OF PREGNANCIES AND SHOWED THE AIHERE, THIS ONE CAME OUT NORMAL, THIS ONE CAME OUT NORMAL SO ITIS EVEN BETTER THAN THE BEST HUMAN AT DOING THAT PREDICTION,AND SO EVEN IN RURAL AFRICA, YOU CONNECT THIS TO A CELLPHONE, INTO THE SCAN, IT TELLS.

YOU WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW.AND THAT WOULD CUT MATERNAL DEATHS IN HALF IF WE MADE ITBROADLY AVAILABLE. >> SO WHAT IF THE CHALLENGE –I'VE SEEN PICTURES AND IT'S INCREDIBLE, YOU COULD REALLYHOOK IT UP TO AN IPAD AND SEE EVEN WHEN THERE IS A NURSE IN AVILLAGE OF LIKE 10 FEMALES, WHAT IS THE CHALLENGE INGETTING THAT TO THE RIGHT PLACE AT SCALE? >> WE HAVE TO SPEND HUNDREDS OFMILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO INVENT THIS AND NOW IT IS GOING TO THEREGULATORY PROCESS, AND THAT IS.

ALSO VERY EXPENSIVE.SADLY, THERE IS NO NATURAL MARKET FOR THIS.THE PEOPLE WHO BENEFIT FROM IT HAVE VERY LITTLE MONEY, SO THENORMAL MARKET MECHANISM OF THIS A PRIORITY FOR THE INNOVATIONAGENDA, WITHOUT GOVERNMENTS BEING GENEROUS WITHPHILANTHROPY, IT JUST NEVER HAPPENS.BUT IT'S COMING TOGETHER. I WAS IN KENYA SEEING THE WORKAND WE WILL GET IT OUT THERE. WE HAVE PARTNERSHIPS WITH LOTSOF THE ULTRASOUND COMPANIES INCLUDING PHILLIPS WHO, IF WEFUND IT, THEY WORK WITH US VERY.

WELL. FRANCINE:AND THIS IS AN HPV SINGLE DOSE. JONATHAN:FRANCINE LACQUA SITTING DOWN WITH BILL GATES.YOU CAN WATCH MORE OF THAT INTERVIEW WHEN IT IS UPLOADEDTO BLOOMBERG.COM. WITHOUT DOUBT, TOP OF THEAGENDA FOR US I THINK TODAY IS WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT IN IOWA.ANNE-MARIE, JUST ANOTHER STUNNING VICTORY, BUT WIDELYPREDICTED. DR. DONALD TRUMP COMING INNUMBER ONE. WHAT WAS LEFT PREDICTED WITHWHO IS COMING IN NUMBER TWO,.

BUT DESANTIS WAS ABLE TO PULLIT OUT. HE SPENT SO MUCH CAPITAL, DIDTHE FULL CHUCK GRASSLEY, 99 OUNCES.NIKKI HALEY COMING IN THIRD. WHAT WAS SO INTERESTING ANDPROBABLY IS REALLY DEMORALIZING FOR THE DESANTIS CAMPAIGN, WITHIN 30 MINUTES AP, CNN, CBSWERE ALL READY TO CALL IT FOR THE FORMER PRESIDENT. JONATHAN:LET'S GET YOUR REACTION, YOUR FIRST THOUGHTS FOLLOWING WHATHAPPENED OVERNIGHT.

>> HELLO AND GOOD MORNING.THREE THOUGHTS REALLY. FOUR, LET ME SAY.FIRSTLY, THE IOWA TURNOUT WAS VERY MUCH DOWN.THAT SHOULDN'T BE SURPRISED ANYBODY GIVEN THE WEATHER, BUTIT WAS BARELY HALF OF WHAT THE 2016 TURNOUT WAS.SO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IS THESE RESULTS ARE GOING TO GETSLY STATE DICED BUT I THINK A LITTLE BIT DENIGRATED, FRANKLY,BY THE FACT THAT THERE WERE SO FEW CAUCUS-GOERS OUT THERE,COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING. HOW I TEND TO LOOK AT IT ISTRUMP AGAINST NOT TRUMP BECAUSE.

THAT IS WHAT THE STREET WANTSTO KNOW. AND WHAT WE COME AWAY WITH ITHINK ARE THREE THINGS. HALF OF EARLY PRIMARY VOTERSDON'T WANT TRUMP TO BE THE NOMINEE.SECONDLY, THERE IS A NOT TRUMP REPUBLICAN NOMINATION PATH THATREMAINS VIABLE, AND IT PROBABLY GETS PUMPED UP FROM NEWHAMPSHIRE A LITTLE BIT, AND THEN NOTHING HAPPENS FOR AMONTH, IN THIS RACE WILL BE VERY MUCH AT LOOSE ENDS, WHICHIS GOOD FOR CHALLENGERS. AND THIRDLY,.

IN THE MORNING REGISTRY POLLS,TRUMP IS AT NEARLY 30% OF LIKELY I WILL REPUBLICAN CAUCUSVOTERS FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION. SO WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IS ALOOMING REPUBLICAN PARTY SPLIT SHOULD TRUMP BECOME THE NOMINEE.>> IT DIDN'T SEEM LIKE THIS WAS A SPLIT.WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT HOW QUICKLY ALL OF THE NETWORKSCALL THIS FOR TRUMP. WHO IS GOING TO BE NUMBER TWO,CAN WE LEARN THAT AT LEAST? >> IS A SPLIT BECAUSE HE GOT51% OF VIOLINS VOTING FOR TRUMP, SO ROUGHLY 50% WEREN'T.SECONDLY, I DON'T THINK WE DID.

BECAUSE WHAT YOU GOT WAS ASITUATION GOING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE NIKKI HALEY ISSTRONG BUT THERE IS GOING TO BE MONTH WHERE THERE WON'T BE ANYVOTES, AND NOT UNTIL THE 24TH OF FEBRUARY IN SOUTH CAROLINADOES VOTING RESUME. DESANTIS IS ALREADY ON HIS WAY,SO IT IS ANYBODY'S GAME FOR THE OPPOSITION AT THIS POINT.I DO THINK YOU ARE SEEING TRUMP'S CEILING HERE. >> WHEN YOU LOOK AT NEWHAMPSHIRE, ALL THE ADS TRUMP ARE PUTTING IT IS ATTACKINGNIKKI HALEY BECAUSE HE VIEWS.

HER AT THE PERMISSIVECHALLENGER RIGHT NOW, THE HARDEST BEAT.BUT WITH THE SANTOS COMING IN SECOND IN IOWA IT LOOKS LIKE HEGOING TO STICK AROUND. HOW DIFFICULT IS THAT FOR THEHALEY CAMPAIGN? >> VERY DIFFICULT FOR THEM, BUTI DOUBT THEY ARE SURPRISED BY THAT.I DOUBT THEY THOUGHT THEY WERE GOING TO GET A CLEAR PATHREGARDLESS. I THINK THE NINI WAS BURYINGDESANTIS IN IOWA A LOT MORE THAN THE VOTES WERE GOING TOCOME OUT.

HE GOT ABOUT 2500 VOTES MORETHAN HALEY DID IN IOWA. SO BOTH OF THOSE ARE GOING TOLOOK LIKE VIABLE CANDIDATES. IN CONTINUING TO RUN, FRANKLY.I THINK YOU WILL SEE THEM ALL UP IN MIDTOWN MANHATTAN VERYSOON BECAUSE THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF FUNDRAISING TAKINGPLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. JONATHAN:LET'S FINISH YEAR, CAN ANYTHING STOP THE FORMER PRESIDENT? >> >> THAT, I'M SORRY? JONATHAN:CAN ANYTHING STOP THE FORMER PRESIDENT FROM RUNNING AWAYWITH THIS?.

>> OH, I THINK SO.IF DESANTIS OR HALEY CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE VOTES.IN VERY DIFFERENT SITUATION FROM 2016 WHEN YOU HAD 10NOT-TRUMP CANDIDATES AS OPPOSED TO EFFECTIVELY TWO, IF THEYCONSOLIDATE AROUND ONE OF THOSE CANDIDATES, FRANKLY, ANDTRUMP'S MARGINS DON'T GET ANY BIGGER, YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE APROTRACTED FIGHT HERE. SO YEAH, THIS IS NOT OVER FORTRUMP BY ANY MEANS. JONATHAN: THANKS FOR JUMPING ON THE PHONE.THEIR PUBLIC AND PRIMARY WELL AND TRULY UNDERWAY.WANT TO TALK ABOUT POLICY AND.

WE'RE JUST NOT TALKING ABOUTPOLICY AT ALL, ARE WE? >> THE BIGGEST QUESTION ABOUTTRUMP IS THAT NOBODY KNOWS WHAT HE IS GOING TO DO. NO DEBATES, NO POLICYPRESCRIPTIONS, IT HAS ALL BEEN VINDICTIVE SAYING THEY STOLETHE ELECTION SO WE HAVE A SITUATION WE HAVE TO RESET. >> WHEN YOU'RE IN EUROPE ANDDABBLES, WHAT THEY ARE SO WORRIED ABOUT IS THAT TARIFF.WHEN THEY THOUGHT TARIFFS WERE BAD, THE NEXT ROUND IS GOING TOGET A LOT WORSE. JONATHAN:.

LISA HAS QUESTIONS.EVERYONE IS SICK. THE MODERNA CO UP NEXT.– CEO, UP NEXT. JONATHAN:WE ARE LIVE AT THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM.YOUR PRICE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON, THIS MORNINGDEPENDING ON WHICH PART OF THE WORLD WERE IN LOOKS LIKE THIS. YET WE MARKET ON THE S&P 500,EQUITY FUTURES SHAPING UP AS FOLLOWS. NEGATIVE BY 0.5%. ON THE NASDAQ, DOWN BY 0.6.EARNINGS SEASON WELL UNDERWAY.

EARLY FEBRUARY AT THE END OFTHIS MONTH, WE STARTED TALKING ELTEK AS WELL. >> WHICH IS REALLY THE SAME –MAIN THEME IN DABBLES, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPENBUT LET'S ALL TALK ABOUT IT BECAUSE THAT SEEMS TO BE THETHEME RIGHT NOW. >> ANOTHER THEME IS U.S. DEBT.BUDGET DEFICITS IN AMERICA, TRYING TO CONFRONT THEM.IS ANYONE GOING TO CONFRONT THEM?TWO YEARS, 10 YEARS, 30 YEARS, TREASURIES LOOKING LIKE THIS.THAT'S HOW IT SIX OR SEVEN.

BASIS POINTS.WHAT IS UNUSUAL IS THAT WE HAVE GOT A CONSENSUS.BUT IS ON FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATES.THE PIPEDREAM OF A SOFT LANDING IN FIXED RATE CUT THIS YEAR.LISA: BASICALLY SAYING THERE IS NOWAY THEY GET MORE THAN TWO RATE CUTS. AND WE HAVE HEARD PUSHBACKAFTER PUSHBACK BY FED OFFICIAL, IMF CHIEF ECONOMIST CAME OUTEARLIER TODAY — MARKET IS NOT BUYING IT. JONATHAN:YOU WONDER WITHOUT LEAVE THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.

>> THERE IN ON A SOFT LANDING.THE ECONOMY OF THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE WHEN IT COMES TO AMERICANVOTERS. JONATHAN: LET'S HAVE A QUICK LOOK AT THEEURO, LISA CAN GUESS WHERE THIS IS. >> THAT IS BASICALLY WHERE WEARE AT RIGHT NOW. REAL QUESTION, YOU MENTIONEDEUROPE AND WHAT THEIR GROWTH IS GOING TO BE AND I DON'T SEETHAT BEING PRICED IN. JONATHAN: DATA COMES OUT OF EUROPE, DATEDIS BAD. WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE THE ECB,NEVER MIND HAVING A SINGLE.

MANDATE.THE GROWTH MODEL IN EUROPE IS BROKEN.SHOCKING TO ME THAT EVERY TIME WE SIT HERE IN EUROPE, THEREISN'T A BIGGER CONVERSATION ABOUT THE GROWTH IS GOING TOLOOK LIKE. LET'S TALK ABOUT EVERYTHINGWILL ISSUE WE TALK ABOUT AT THE MOMENT. WHERE IS YOUR ON AI?THEY ARE UNREGULATED, WE ALL UNDERSTAND THAT, BUT WHO ISDRIVING? LISA: WHICH IS THE REASON A LOT OFPEOPLE ARE JUST SHRUGGING WHEN YOU HAVE OFFICIALS SAY WE ARENOT EVEN GOING TO CUT RATES IN.

THE MARKET IS BASICALLY LAUGHING AT THEM, THAT FIRSTENERGY TO RUSSIA THAT BLEW UP IN THEIR FACES, AND THEY'RESTILL TRYING TO DO ALMOST DIFFERENT PLANS DEPENDING ONWHO YOU TALK TO, AND THEN OUTSOURCE THEIR DEFENSE TO THEUNITED STATES AMERICA. JONATHAN: PRESIDENT OF THE LEFT-LEANINGINTO THIS APPROACH, THE NEXT PRESIDENT NOT BE LEANING IN THESAME DIRECTION. DONALD TRUMP TRUMP MOVING ASTEP CLOSER TO A REMATCH WITH JOE BIDEN, 2051% OF THE VOTE INTHE IOWA CAUCUS WITH RON.

DESANTIS A DISTANT SECOND ANDTHE HALEY WORD. THE FORMER PRESIDENT HASANOTHER CHANCE TO TIGHTEN HIS GRIP ON THE REPUBLICANNOMINATION AND THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY NEXT WEEK.IF THE OUTCOME GOING TO BE ANY DIFFERENT? ANNMARIE:POTENTIALLY IT COULD BE ONLY BECAUSE NEW HAMPSHIRE YOU DOHAVE NIKKI HALEY THE TRAILING TRUMP.CONCEAL HIS AND SPENDING IS AGAINST HALEY, BUT POLL AFTERPOLL CONTINUES TO SHOW TRUMP IS JUST NOMINATING — DOMINATINGTHE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

HE'S ALMOST INCUMBENT. LISA:WHICH IS THE REASON WHY IT IS SHOCKING TO SEE PEOPLE ASSHOCKED AS THEY ARE FOR IT TO BE IN THEIR FACE. TO ME, THEY DIDN'T THINK ABOUTIT UNTIL HE THOUGHT ABOUT IT. THIS IS THE FIRST REALITY SHOCK.EVEN IF IT IS NO SURPRISE, IT STILL A SORT OF IGNITING ACONVERSATION EVERYONE HAD BEEN BOTH THE PARENT LONG. JONATHAN:WE TALKED ABOUT HOW ANNOYED YOU MIGHT BE.WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT BANK POLICY AND REGULATION.WE COULD SEE A REAL SHIFT IN.

APPROACH.THE THANK EARNINGS CONTINUE WITH MORGAN STANLEY AND GOLDMANEXPECTED IN AROUND ABOUT AN HOUR. BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCEEXPECTING GOLDEN NET REVENUE TO RETURN TO GROWTH AFTER SEVENSTRAIGHT QUARTERS OF DECLINE. FOR MORGAN STANLEY, THE FIRST EARNINGS CALL FOR A NEW CEO ANDYOU WILL BE LEADING THE CONVERSATION A LITTLE BIT LATERTHIS WEEK. LISA: THIS IS THE KEY QUESTION FORSOMEONE CUTTING INTO THE HELM AFTER THE STORY CAREER OF JAMESGORMAN.

HOW DO YOU SHAVE A NARRATIVEWERE MORGAN STANLEY ESSENTIALLY WON AGAINST GOLDMAN SACHS.NOW HE HAS IT TO LOSE. A SET OF SLOW GRIND FROM THEECONOMY THIS YEAR. JONATHAN: PERHAPS UNFAIRLY BUT ACCURATELYI DESCRIBED DABBLES AS A HIGHLIGHT REEL OF BAD FORECASTS.LAST YEAR, THE FORECAST WAS U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH, WE COULDDIFFERENT RECESSION. CHINA'S GOING TO REOPEN, IT'SGOING TO BE FANTASTIC. LIPID ON ITS HEAD, HERE WE ARETWELVE-MONTH LATER TALKING ABOUT THIS.MORE STIMULUS ON THE WAY FOR.

CHINA'S ECONOMY.SENIOR POLICY MAKERS CONSIDERING 139 BILLION DOLLARSOF NEW DEBT ISSUANCE UNDER A SO-CALLED SPECIAL SOVEREIGNBOND PLAN ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG REPORTING.THE SALE BE THE FOURTH IN THE PAST 26 YEARS AND WOULD FUNDPROJECTS RELATED TO FOOD, ENERGY, SUPPLY CHAINS, ANDORGANIZATION. LISA: THIS COMES AS CHINA SENDS THELARGEST DELEGATION TO DAVOS 2017.THERE IS A REAL FEELING THAT THE CONCERN ABOUT SLOW GROWTHIN CHINA IS SUPERSEDING A LOT.

OF THE IDEOLOGICAL RHETORICTHAT REFERRED FROM XI JINPING. WHETHER THE FOLLOW-THROUGH ONTHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. PEOPLE DON'T KNOW WHAT IT WOULDTAKE FOR COMPANIES, INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES TO GETCONFIDENCE TO GO BACK TO CHINA RIGHT NOW. ANNMARIE:I THINK IT WOULD TAKE WHAT IS GOING ON GEOPOLITICALLY ANDALSO DEPENDING ON WHO THE NEXT PRESIDENT IS, JOE BIDEN DIDN'TPIVOT AWAY FROM OF THE FORMER PRESIDENT DID WHAT HE CAME TOTARIFFS, AND EVEN DOUBLED DOWN WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA.JONATHAN: LET'S GET TO THE NEXT.

CONVERSATION WITH THE CEO OFMODERNA ALONGSIDE US. GOOD AFTERNOON TO YOU.REBUILDING TRUST IF THE TITLE OF THIS FORM.WE KNOW THROUGH YOUR INDUSTRY WE NEED TO BE BUILD SOME TRUSTWITH THE VACCINE INDUSTRY. HOW DO WE GO ABOUT DOING THAT? >> I THINK WE GO USING THE DATAAND TRY TO WORK WITH PEOPLE WHO NEED IT MOST. IF YOU THINKABOUT IT, A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE GETTING A FLU SHOT, ESPECIALLYTHE ELDERLY, WHICH IS GREAT, AND THEN SOMETHING LIKE A COVIDSHOT.

FIVE TO SEVEN TIMES MORE PEOPLEARE BEING HOSPITALIZED WITH COVID THEN FLEW.SO WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO ACROSS THE INDUSTRY TO GO BACKTHE FACT THAT SCIENTISTS SCIENCE.IF YOU LOOK AT OUR LIVES TODAY, YOU GUYS TALK ABOUT AI, ALL OURLIVES ARE BASED ON SCIENCE. THERE HAS SO MUCHMISINFORMATION AND WE NEED TO GET BACK TO IT. JONATHAN:SCIENCE AS YOU KNOW IS A PROCESS OF DISCOVERY.I THINK AFTER WE TALK ABOUT IT AS IF IT IS DEFINITIVE, THAT WEFOUND SOMETHING, AND THAT IS.

THE RULE NOW.THE GENERAL PUBLIC LISTENING TO THE SCIENTIST OVER THE LASTTHREE YEARS I THINK WHAT THEY'VE HEARD IS THIS IS THESCIENCE, AND THE FOLLOW-UP SIX MONTHS LATER IS WE GOT ITWRONG, WE LEARN SOMETHING NEW. HOW DO WE CHANGE THAT? >> IS A CHALLENGE IN SOMECOUNTRIES WERE A PEOPLE HORRID — PEOPLE BRCA2 DRAMATIC,TRYING TO COMMUNICATE IN VERY SIMPLE TERMS PUBLIC BECAUSE YOUHAD TO COMMUNICATE VERY COMPLEX SIGNS TO THE PUBLIC ANDSOMETIMES THEY WERE A BIT TOO.

IN THE ABSOLUTE.NOBODY HAD SEEN THIS VIRUS BEFORE.THE RATE AT WHICH IT MUTATED SURPRISED EVERYBODY. BEING SHOCKED WITH MY TEAM LOOKING AT THE SEQUENCE ANDSAYING WHEN THEY DO EXPECT THIS WOULD HAPPEN, MAYBE YOUR TWOFROM NOW. A LOT OF HUMILITY COMES WITHSCIENCE AND COMMUNICATING. EARLY IN THE PANDEMIC,OFFICIALS SAID YOU DON'T NEED TO WEAR A MASK.AND WATCHING THIS ON TV AND.

SAYING HOW CAN YOU SAY THATBECAUSE IT IS A RESPIRATORY VIRUS, OF COURSE HE TO WEAR AMASK. I UNDERSTAND WHAT THEY WERETRYING TO DO, TO PROTECT THE SUPPLY FOR PEOPLE WORKING INHOSPITALS, BUT BY MAKING SUCH A BLANK STATEMENT YOU LOSECREDIBILITY. >> TO THAT POINT, A LOT OFPEOPLE HERE ARE SICK, A LOT OF PEOPLE HERE HAVE CANCELED.ARE YOU WEAR A MASK? >> KNOW, BUT I'M VACCINATED. >> A LOT OF PEOPLE AREFRUSTRATED THAT WHEN YOU GET.

VACCINATED, YOU STILL GET SICK,JUST SICK. ARE WE GETTING CLOSER TO NOTGETTING THE FLU, OR COVID, OR RSV?TALK TO OUR IMMUNE SYSTEM IS THE WAY IT IS, WE CAN'T CHANGETHAT. THE QUESTION IS WHEN YOU GETINFECTED VS WHEN YOU GOT THE VACCINE. IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, WESHOULD ALL THINK ABOUT THIS A PROTECTIVE AGAINST VERY THATOUTCOMES, LIKE INSURANCE. YOU DON'T WANT THEM TO GETHOSPITALIZED.

FOR PEOPLE OUR AGE, IT IS NOTGETTING ALONG COVID. I HAVE COWORKERS ABOUT LONGCOVID, AND IT IS REALLY BAD. THOSE ARE HEALTHY PEOPLE IN THEMID-40'S. I SPENT SIX MONTHS, AND THESEARE THINGS WE NEED TO PREVENT. LISA:WE ARE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE POST-COVID ERA, TRYING REALLYHARD. I'M WONDERING FROM YOUR VANTAGEPOINT HOW YOU GET MODERNA TO BE A COMPANY OTHER THAN A VACCINECOMPANY, WHICH ISN'T AS PROFITABLE, ISN'T AS LUCRATIVEAS OTHERS.

>> I WANT TO CHANGE THAT ALITTLE BIT. INNOVATIVE VACCINE IS A VERYGOOD BUSINESS. WHAT YOU DON'T WANT TO BE IS AVACCINE WHERE YOU ARE 50 METERS AND THE COST IS VERY –.LOOK WHAT THEY'VE DONE WITH HPV. THEY OWN THE FRANCHISE AROUNDTHE WORLD. SO I THINK IT IS HIGHLYPOSSIBLE. A LOT OF INNOVATION COMING IN,ALSO PRODUCT LAUNCH THIS YEAR WHEN IT HAPPENS, BECAUSE THEPRODUCT HAS EXACTLY THE SAME CHEMISTRY WITH THE SAMETECHNOLOGY, AND THEN WE HAVE.

PRODUCTS, THE NUMBER ONE CAUSEOF BIRTH DEFECT IN THE U.K., AND THE U.S., AND EUROPE.AND THERE IS NO VACCINE THAT EXISTS.EVERYBODY ELSE TRIED, THEY ALL BROKE THEIR TEETH.THIS IS VERY LUCRATIVE BECAUSE THOSE VIRUSES ARE NOT GOINGAWAY. AND THEN IF YOU THINK ABOUTJUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS, WE ANNOUNCED 50% REDUCTION OF DEBTOR DISEASED VS. THE BEST DRUG MARKET FOR SKINCANCER AND WE BELIEVE IS GOING TO BE EXTENDED.AND THEN GENETIC DISEASES.

WE HAVE A DAY PROFOUND CLINICALIMPACT ON KIDS. THE DNA FROM MOM AND DAD WILLPROVIDE INSTRUCTION TO GIVE THEM THE PRODUCT THAT WE MAKE. INSTEAD OF GETTING A LIVERTRANSPLANT, AND THAT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING.YOU ARE GOING TO SEE THIS YEAR AN AMAZING NUMBER OF CLINICALDATA COMING OUT OF NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES AS WE MOVE INTO APOST-COVID WORLD. JONATHAN: YOU'VE LAUNCHED AN RSV VACCINE. >> WE ARE LAUNCHING, WE HAVENOT LAUNCHED YET. JONATHAN:.

YOU WILL BE THIRD TO MARKET.HOW DO YOU PLAN TO COMPETE? >> WE HAVE THE BEST PROFILE.THE TWO ON THE MARKET A VERY COMPLICATED TO PREPARE.AS YOU KNOW, THERE'S A BIG SHORTAGE OF ARM SEES ANDTECHNICIANS, WITH PEOPLE ON STRIKE.OUR PRODUCT IS VERY SIMPLE. THE MANY STEPS OF PREPARATIONAND POTENTIAL MEDICAL — TRIP PRODUCT.ANOTHER THING THE PEOPLE OF SET'S MODERNA, YOU ARE A SMARTCOMPANY, YOU CAN'T COMPETE WITH ESTABLISHED THINGS.

LOOK AT WE NEED TO MARKETDESPITE HAVING A MUCH SMALLER TEAM THAN THE OTHER MRNA PLAYER.WE USE A LOT OF TECHNOLOGY. GETTING THE FACTS IN FRONT OFTHE MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL AS SHOWN TIME AND TIME AGAIN FORBIG STUDIES, HAVING LESS HOSPITALIZATION THAN THE MRNAVACCINE. THE SCIENCE AND OUR PRODUCT ISWHAT IS GOING TO DRIVE US. >> SUCH DISTRIBUTION, WILL ITBE CARRIED BY PLACES LIKE CVS? >> OF COURSE, RETAIL PHARMACIES.ONE OF THE THING COVID HAS DONE IS TO ACCELERATE THE ROLE OFPHARMACY IN THE VACCINATION.

FLU, COVID. WHICH CAN TAKE CAPACITY OUT ANDPREVENT THE DOCTORS FROM BEING ABLE TO DO THINGS THAT ARE MORESPECIALIZING, SO I THINK IT IS GOOD FOR MORE PATIENTS.JONATHAN: GOOD TO CATCH UP, GOOD TO SEEYOU. LISA, THE TITLE OF THIS FORM WEWILL KEEP REVISITING, IT IS REALLY TRUST. THERE IS ANINDUSTRY THAT IS TRYING TO REBUILD TRUST. LISA:AND IT GOES DEEP, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT IS VERY POLITICALFEELING AROUND VACCINES, PARTLY.

BECAUSE OF SOME OF THE MANDATESAND THE CHANGING UNDERSTANDING OF THE DRUG.BUT HOW DO YOU GET PEOPLE TO TAKE SOMETHING IF THEY CANNOTBE HOSPITALIZED AS A RESULT WITH SCIENCE THAT IS EVOLVINGIN REAL TIME? >> IF WE DON'T WANT LONG COVID,WE NEED TO GET THOSE VACCINES. BUT TO THE POLITICALIZATION OFTHIS AND TO HIS POINT, WHEN YOU HAVE AN OFFICIAL IT COMES TOTHE PODIUM AND SAYS YOU DON'T NEED TO WEAR A MASK BECAUSETHEY ARE JUST TRYING TO HOARD THEM, YOU JUST HAVE TO BEHONEST WITH PEOPLE WHERE YOU.

LOSE TRUST AND YOU LOSECREDIBILITY. JONATHAN: I'D ARGUE THEY'VE LOST CREDIBLYOVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. DO YOU REMEMBER WHEN CRYPTO WASTHE REBEL CHARGE OF FINANCE AND NOW IT IS KIND OF INSTITUTIONAL.>> IT HAS BEEN INSTITUTIONAL AT DAVOS FOR A WHILE. JONATHAN:THAT'S COMING UP NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> 80% OF THE G20 COUNTRIESHAVE CRYPTO REGULATION. YOU SEE THAT IN JAPAN, YOU SEETHAT IN SINGAPORE, SEE THAT IN MANY COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD.THE FINANCIAL CENTERS.

THE PROBLEM IS THE — OPTIMISTSSAY THE U.S. JUMPS INTO THIS AND GET THISRIGHT BUT WE ARE SEEING A LOT OF REGULATION IN MANY COUNTRIES.JONATHAN: THAT WAS THE COINBASE CEOSPEAKING TO FRANCINE ON THE OPTIMISM OF CRYPTO AS BITCOINGAINED ETF APPROVAL JUST LAST WEEK IN THE UNITED STATES. ALONGSIDE LISA ABRAMOWICZ, I'MJONATHAN FERRO, THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE LIVEFROM DAVOS, SWITZERLAND. JUST A CHECK IN THE PRICEACTION, OF COURSE WE NEED TO.

TALK ABOUT EARNINGS THISMORNING FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND MORGAN STANLEY.EQUITIES PULLING BACK JUST A LITTLE BIT, DOWN ABOUT 0.5%.I'VE SAID IT A FEW TIMES, HIGHLIGHT A BURNING SEASON FORME AND THINK FOR MANY OTHERS AS WELL WILL BE APPLE IN EARLYFEBRUARY, GIVEN THE TWO DOWNGRADE WE SAW IN EARLYJANUARY FOLLOWING ACID YEAR AND FOR THAT STOCK. LISA:WHAT IS IT, 30% OF THE S&P 500 AT MARKET CAP?A CERTAIN POINT, THEY ALREADY INDEXED SO YOU COULD TALK ABOUTBANKS AND SOME TO THE.

BELLWETHER, BUT ULTIMATELY ITRESIDES THIS QUESTION WHETHER TECH CAN CONTINUE TO RESCUE THEU.S. ECONOMY IN SOME SORT OF SLUGGISH GROWTH AND SLUGGISHPERFORMANCE. JONATHAN: A SERIES OF PANELS OF THE WORLDECONOMIC FORUM EARLIER ON THIS MORNING ABOUT PRIVATE MARKETS.YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT HAS CHANGED MORE RECENTLY, THEPUBLIC MARKETS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO ONE REGION, SEVENNAMES. ULTIMATELY IF YOU WANT DIVERSIFICATION, YOU GOT TO GOELSEWHERE. WE TALKED TO THE BANKERS ANDASK THEM ABOUT REGULATION THE.

PROSPECT OF HEART CAPITALRULES, YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF UNHAPPY FACES. U.S.THE ASSET MANAGERS, YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF HAPPYFACES. REGULATION THIS YEAR IS A BIGDEAL. >> THAT HAS BEEN THE ISSUE ANYCOMPLAINT FROM THE BIG BANKS IS THAT PRIVATE CAPITAL TOSTEALING OUR LUNCH. THEY ARE CAPTURING EVERYTHINGWE CAN'T DO BECAUSE WE CAN'T INVEST IN THE SAME WAY WITHOUTHOLDING A LOT OF CAPITAL, WHICH IS INTERESTING AND SOMETHING IWANT TO ASK ABOUT PRIVATE ARC.

IT'S.HOW DO YOU GET IN AS A BIG BANK REGULATOR AS A BANK BUT BEPROFITABLE IN THE SAME WAY AS PRIVATE EQUITY? JONATHAN:BRIAN MOYNIHAN AT BANK OF AMERICA AS WELL, CATCHING UPWITH A WHOLE FINANCIAL SECTOR THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEWEEK. FOR THE REGULATIONS GETTINGBETTER FOR THE WORLD OF CRYPTO? LET'S HAVE THAT CONVERSATIONRIGHT NOW. JEREMY, GOOD AFTERNOON.WE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SEGMENT, AND I DON'T KNOW IFYOU HEARD THIS, DO YOU REMEMBER.

WHEN CRYPTO AND EVERYTHING YOUDO WAS LIKE REBEL CHILD OF FINANCE, AND NOW IT JUST FEELSINSTITUTIONAL. IS THAT A GOOD THING? >> I DO THINK IT IS A GOODTHING IN THE SENSE THAT WHEN WE SET OUT TO DO WHAT WE'RE DOINGOVER 10 YEARS AGO, I THINK THE VISION WAS THAT YOU COULDINTEGRATE THE TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM WITH THIS NEWTECHNOLOGY, AND THAT THIS NEW TECHNOLOGY COULD REALLY CHANGETHE POSSIBILITIES FOR HOW MONEY MOVED IN THE WORLD AND HOWDIFFERENT TYPES OF FINANCIAL.

SERVICES COULD WORK.THE ONLY WAY TO DO THAT IS BY CONNECTING THEM TOGETHER, DOINGIT ANY REGULATORY-COMPLIANT WAY. THIS OBVIOUSLY DIFFERENTDIMENSIONS OF THIS INDUSTRY AND SO THEY ARE CERTAINLY A PART OFTHE INDUSTRY THAT SEEKS TO HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THETRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INDUSTRY OR GOVERNMENT FOR ANYTHING LIKETHAT, AND I THINK THE MAINSTREAM PHASE OF THIS IS ONEIN WHICH YOU'VE BROUGHT TOGETHER REGULATION,TRADITIONAL FINANCE, AND BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY, ANDLEADING CRYPTO PLAYERS THAT CAN.

KIND OF CONNECT THOSE WORLDSTOGETHER. LISA: TALKING ABOUTINSTITUTIONALIZATION, BITCOIN ETF.DOES THAT MAKE YOUR JOB EASIER OR HARDER BECAUSE YOU TRY TOGET PEOPLE TO ADAPT TO STABLECOINS WHICH ARE DIFFERENTWHEN EVERYONE ASSOCIATES CRYPTO WITH BITCOIN? >> IT MAKES IT EASIER.I THINK A COUPLE WAYS TO THINK ABOUT THAT, THE FIRST IS THATTHIS IS A WATERSHED MOMENT. YOU HAVE A SIGNALING FROM ALLTHE MAJOR PARTICIPANTS IN THE.

FINANCIAL SECTOR.THE EXCHANGES, THE BIGGEST TRADING HOUSES, THE BIGGESTASSET MANAGERS THAT THEY ARE MOVING INTO THE SPACE AND THATIS A KIND OF VALIDATION. AND I THINK TO THE AVERAGEPERSON OR INSTITUTION OR LARGE INTERNET FIRM, THIS SENDS ASIGNAL THAT THIS IS NOW CONNECTING TO THE GLOBALFINANCIAL SYSTEM, AND I THINK PEOPLE WILL BEGIN TO SAY OK,WHAT ARE THE FILLER TECHNOLOGIES OF THIS?AND THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE KILLER APP OF BLOCKCHAIN'STODAY ARE STABLECOINS.

IT LEADS MORE PEOPLE INTO THEPATH OF DISCOVERY AND IT LEADS MORE PEOPLE TO BEGIN ACTIVELYTRYING TO APPLY THIS TECHNOLOGY, SO THAT IS REALLYVERY POSITIVE FOR US. >> SO IS THIS THE PERFECTMOMENT TO DO AN INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING? >> I CAN'T COMMENT ON ANY KINDOF RIGELL TORY FILINGS. WE'VE ALWAYS SAID WE WANT TOBUILD ONE OF THE MOST TRUSTED, TRANSPARENT-COMPLIANT COMPANIESIN THE WORLD AND ULTIMATELY BECOMING A U.S.-LISTED PUBLICCOMPANY AS PART OF THAT.

STRATEGY , BUT I CAN'T MAKE ANYCOMMENTS ABOUT ANY SPECIFIC FILINGS. LISA:IS THERE A SENSE OF A TIMELINE AND EVALUATION THAT YOU WOULDBE TARGETING? >> AGAIN, I CAN'T MAKE ANYCOMMENTS. JONATHAN: I CAN SENSE THE HESITANCY, SOHOW ABOUT WE FRAME IT A THIRD WAY.YOU TRY TO GO PUBLIC BEFORE. IT HAS CHANGED BETWEEN THEN ANDNOW, HOW DIFFERENT IS YOUR COMPANY, WHAT KIND OF POSITIONARE YOU IN VS. PREVIOUSLY? >> I COULD CERTAINLY TALK ABOUTTHE EVOLUTION OF THE STATES AND.

THE COMPANY AS WELL. OUR BUSINESS WENT THROUGH A.OF VERY SIGNIFICANT GROWTH, AND WE'VE GONE THROUGH A LOT OFGROWTH IN TERMS OF ITS ECONOMIC POTENTIAL FOR US.WE JUST CAME OUT THIS WEEK WITH THE STATE OF THE USDC ECONOMY,A REPORT FOR 2024, AND IT IS AN INCREDIBLE STORY ABOUT HUGELYINCREASING TYPE OF APPLICATIONS, INTERNATIONALAPPLICATIONS, MAJOR PAYMENTS AND FINANCIAL COMPANIES THATARE CONNECTING AND USING THIS. SO WE ARE SEEING THISTREMENDOUS INTERNATIONAL.

EXPANSION AND PROGRESS, AND WEARE SEEING AT THE USDC IS IN FACT THE LEAST SPECULATIVELYUSED DIGITAL CURRENCY THAT IS OUT THERE. SO THAT IS REALLY TREMENDOUSPROGRESS, AND THAT PROGRESS HAS HAPPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THEPAST COUPLE YEARS DESPITE THE TURMOIL. >> TALK ABOUT THE TURMOIL.HOW IMPORTANT IS IT. YOU TALKED ABOUT REGULATION,THE IMPORTANCE OF GETTING REGULATION.HOW IMPORTANT IS IT TO HAVE.

THINGS LIKE AUDITS TOUNDERSTAND HOW MUCH CAPITAL WILL HAVE PUT BEHIND POYTHRESSWAS TO BE PEGGED TO THE DOLLAR? >> IT IS CRITICAL AND THAT ISWHY FROM THE VERY INCEPTION WE'VE ALWAYS PROVIDED PUBLIC ACCOUNTING FIRMS THE RESERVESFOR CIRCLE RESERVE FUND IS IN FACT IN SEC-REGISTERED FUNDSTRUCTURE THAT HAS DAILY TRANSPARENCY INTO ALL OF THEINSTRUMENTS UNDERMINED ABOUT 90% OF THE RESERVES.SO THERE IS THAT TRANSPARENCY AND THERE IS THAT KIND OF MOREAND MORE PROTECTIONS AROUND.

THAT.THAT IS BEING CODIFIED IN THE LAWS AROUND THE WORLD MEETINGREGULARS EVERYWHERE ARE SAYING YOU HAVE TO HAVE THESERESERVES, YOU HAVE TO HAVE THESE AUDITS, YOU HAVE TO HAVETHE RELEVANT ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING, ALL THOSE THINGS.I THINK THE MODEL WE'VE DEVELOPED IS ALSO BECOMING THENORM AROUND THE WORLD REGULATORS. JONATHAN:THANK YOU FOR THE UPDATE AND TO VISIT YOUR HOME FOLLOWING THISCONVERSATION, DON'T ASK ABOUT THE IPO, ASKED ABOUT THE PARTYBECAUSE CRYPTO PARTY, HE WILL.

BE TALKING ABOUT NO MONEY INCRYPTO. THE CRYPTO PARTY IS WHERE IT ISAT. LISA: IT HAS BEEN THAT WAY FOR ACOUPLE OF YEARS. YOU CAN GET THE SENSE THATTHERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MUSCLE. JONATHAN:YOU'VE GOT TO SEND OUT THE INVITES. GOOD TO SEE YOU.PLENTY GOING ON IN THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM.HERE'S ANOTHER CONVERSATION FOR YOU.THE ALPHABET CEO SPEAKING WITH DAVID RUBENSTEIN OF THE CARLYLEGROUP AT BLOOMBERG HOUSE IN.

DAVOS. >> DEGREE FINANCIAL CARS –CRISIS, IT IS SAID THAT PEOPLE THOUGHT THAT MORGAN STANLEY ANDGOLDMAN SACHS AND EVERYBODY ELSE WAS GOING TO GO UNDER.YOU THINK MORGAN STANLEY WAS GOING TO MAKE IT AT THAT TIME? >> THERE WERE DAYS I DID NOT.IT WAS BAD. SO I WAS RUNNING FINANCIALINSTITUTIONS, BANKING AT THE TIME.THE MOST MEANINGFUL PART OF MY CAREER WAS WHAT HANK PAULSONCALLED AND SAID I NEEDED ICE, I.

NEED SOME BANKERS HERE. AND SO I LET A TEAM THAT WORKEDON FANNIE FREDDIE AND THEN AIG, AND THOSE WERE VERY, VERYCHALLENGING DAYS. AND COMING OUT OF IT, WE DIDAIG, PUT THEM INTO CONSERVATORSHIP, JOHN MACK WASCEO AT THE TIME, AND HE SAID YOU ARE IN CHARGE OF LIQUIDITY.FIGURE OUT LIQUIDITY. AND OF COURSE, DAYS BEFORE WHATVERY MUCH WAS RUNNING OUT OF ENERGY, THERE WAS NO WAY TO GETREADY. IN FACT, ONE DAY WHEN WE WERETRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO.

ON THE TRADING FLOOR,WE DID THIS WHOLE SERIES OF DIFFERENT TEAMS, AND IT WORKED.THEY CAME IN, THEY WERE ANY CREDIBLE PARTNER.THE GOVERNMENT CAME IN AND WE BECAME A FEDERALLY RELATEDBANK, THERE WAS A VERY SCARY TIMES AND A LOT OF IMPORTANTLESSONS. >> ONE OF THE BIG WITH THATMITSUBISHI AGREED TO INVEST $23. JONATHAN:THAT WAS OUT OF ITS CEO SPEAKING WITH DAVID RUBENSTEIN.YOU CAN WATCH MORE OF THAT CONVERSATION WILL BE UPLOADEDTO BLOOMBERG.COM AND FOR LIVER.

TERMINAL USAGE, YOU CAN FINDTHAT AT LIVE GO. THEY FEATURE THIS WEEK. LISA:WHAT THEY SAY DEFINITIVELY OTHER THAN WE WANT TO OWN ITAND WE WANT TO CAPITALIZE ON? JONATHAN:I SPOKE TO THE — PRESENT THIS MORNING ABOUT CONFRONTING ANERA OF MISINFORMATION AND HOW DIFFICULT THAT IS GOING TO BEFOR CAPITAL MARKETS. WE WILL CATCH UP WITH LYNNMARTIN LATER THIS WEEK. UP NEXT, DONALD STREET WIN INIOWA. — DONALD TRUMP'S BIG WIN INIOWA.

>> THE BIG RISK FOR MARKETS ISINFLATION GET STUCK. >> WE ARE GETTING INFLATIONPRINTS THAT ARE A BIT HOT. >> WE KNOW THE CONSUMER WILLGET SQUEEZED. >> YOU RUN THE FINE LINE OFKEEPING INFLATION UNDERPINNED AT A TRAJECTORY THAT ISUNCOMFORTABLE IF PSYCHOLOGY DOES NOT MODERATE. >> THIS NOTION THAT IMMACULATEDISINFLATION WILL CONTINUE IS SOMETHING I FIND HARD TORECONCILE WITH ACTUAL DATA. >> THIS IS “BLOOMBERGSURVEILLANCE”.

LIVE FROM THE WORLD ECONOMICFORUM IN DAVOS. JONATHAN: LISA MADE THE RULES.IT IS GOOD AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT GOOD MORNING.THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE. ALONGSIDE LISA ABRAMOWICZ I AMJONATHAN FERRO TOGETHER WITH ANNMARIE HORDERN.EQUITY FEATURES ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.IT IS OUR TWO OF OUR COVERAGE. WHAT AN HOUR BEHIND US.WE HAVE TO REFLECT ON KEN ROGOFF, THE HARVARD PROFESSORCALLING A SOFT LANDING IN SIX RATE CUTS A PIPE DREAM. LISA:MAYBE IT REFLECTS THE.

NERVOUSNESS YOU ARE FEELING INMARKETS. YOU HAVE HEARD SO MANY DIFFERENT OFFICIALS PUSH BACKON THE MARKET PRICING IN THE MARKET KEEP SAYING WE HAVE GOTIT RIGHT AND YOU'VE GOT IT WRONG. LET'S GO.TO ME THAT IS WHAT STICKS OUT GIVEN THE OVER INDEBTEDSTRUCTURE WE HAVE HAD. JONATHAN: BUT DOES IT MEAN FOR THIS WHITEHOUSE GOING INTO AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN THIS YEAR? ANNMARIE:A HEADACHE. THIS IS THEIR BASE CASE.HOW MAY TIMES HAVE WE SEEN JANET YELLEN SAY IT LOOKS LIKEWE ARE GOING TO HAVE A SOFT.

LANDING?THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES THINKS THAT.THAT IS SETTING UP FOR A DECENT TIMELINE AHEAD OF NOVEMBER.THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IS THE ECONOMY THAT PLAYS INTO HOWTRUMP WON IN SUCH A MASSIVE WAY IN IOWA. JONATHAN:THE BIG THING WE WOKE UP TO WAS NOT ANYTHING TO DO WITH THEWORLD ECONOMIC FORUM. WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THERESULTS IN IOWA. WHEN YOU ASK PEOPLE REPEATEDLY,YOU ASK THEM ON THE RECORD OR OFF THE RECORD, THEY DO NOTWANT TO DISCUSS THE PROSPECT OF.

THE FORMER PRESIDENT COMINGBACK INTO POWER. LISA: YOU CAN HEAR THEM SAY AMERICANSWILL CHOOSE WHO THEY WILL. BASICALLY NO ONE WANTS TO TALKABOUT IT. AT THE SAME TIME, WHY HAVEN'TPEOPLE BEEN DEALING WITH THIS? HE HAS BEEN THE FRONT RUNNERFOR A WHILE. I'M CURIOUS TO SEE HOW PEOPLEPLAN TO ADJUST THEIR BUSINESS PLANS AND THEIR POLICIES INRESPONSE TO SOMETHING THAT IS MORE THAN JUST A PROBABILITY. JONATHAN:THE SO-CALLED GLOBALISTS THAT.

COME TO A FORUM LIKE THIS ONEAND THE PROSPECT OF EMBRACING THE FORMER PRESIDENT AND WHATTHAT MIGHT MEAN FOR THE FUTURE, IT IS AMAZING THEY HAVE NOTPREPARED. IT IS AMAZING WE ARE WAKING UPAND HAVING THE SAME CONVERSATION.THE UNITED STATES IS A THREAT TO GLOBALIZATION REGARDLESS OFWHO IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE. AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS ANABSENCE OF CONVERSATION ABOUT EUROPEAN GROWTH MODELS AND THEFAILURE OF THE LAST 10 YEARS IN PLACES LIKE GERMANY. ANNMARIE:THAT IS WHY YOU TURNED IT ON.

ITS HEAD WHEN YOU HEARD FROMCHRISTINE LAGARDE TALKING ABOUT WHAT TRUMP WOULD MEAN FOREUROPE. IN THE LAST FEW YEARS SHOULDEUROPE HAVE BEEN LOOKING MORE INTROSPECTIVELY ABOUTTHEMSELVES? THERE DEPENDENCE ON RUSSIA?ON CHINA? THEIR DEFENSE DEPENDENCE ON THEUNITED STATES. WE ARE STRUGGLING TO GET NATOMEMBERS TO INCREASE THEIR DEFENSE BUDGET BY 2%.AT THE WARSAW FORUM A DEFENSE MINISTER SAID WHAT MORE WILL ITTAKE?.

THERE'S A WAR ON EUROPEAN SOIL.YOU CANNOT RELY ON AMERICANS. LISA:WHERE IS THE EUROPEAN AI PUSH GIVEN EVERYONE HERE IS TALKINGABOUT AI? EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT THISWILL RULE THE WORLD. THAT IS WHAT WE ARE TALKINGABOUT MICROSOFT AND APPLE AND AMAZON AND WHAT THEY WILL DO.WE CAN TALK GEOPOLITICS ALL WE WANT BUT IF MONEY TALKS THATHAS BEEN THE BIGGEST SPEAKER. JONATHAN:WHAT IS THE SAYING COME AMERICA INNOVATES, CHINA IMITATES, ANDEUROPE TRIES TO REGULATE.

ISN'T THAT WHAT IS HAPPENINGACROSS A RANGE OF THINGS? JONATHAN:I DO NOT THINK IT WILL CHANGE ANYTIME SOON.EVERY YEAR WE COME HERE IT IS THE SAME.I DO NOT THINK THE ATTITUDE HAS SHIFTED WHATSOEVER. ANNMARIE:THERE IS ONE INDIVIDUAL I AM LOOKING OUT FOR BECAUSE HE SAYSHE IS HERE TO READ THE RIGHT ACT.THAT IS THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION CEO.HE SAYS HE WAS INVITED AND HE WANTS TO, AND TALK ABOUT WHERETHEY'VE GONE WRONG. JONATHAN:.

IS HE COMING ON WITH US?LET'S MAKE THAT HAPPEN. WE WILL ROUND UP EARNINGSSEASON IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. GOLDMAN SACHS AND MORGANSTANLEY JUST ROUND THE CORNER. EQUITY FUTURES -.4%. LISA: WE HAVE ANOTHER INCREDIBLELINEUP. A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO WILL GIVE AVIEW FORWARD INCLUDING HOWARD LUTNICK, FANTASTIC TIMING.INTEL'S PAT GELSINGER, DOES HE RULE THE WORLD?AND CHEVRON'S MIKE WORTH. WE WERE TALKING WITH KENROGOFF, WIRE OIL PRICES NOT.

RESPONDING TO THIS GEOPOLITICALTURMOIL? HOW DO PEOPLE RESPOND TO THAT?YOU GIVE A STIMULUS AND TRY TO PREDICT THE MARKET OUTCOME.JONATHAN: I WAS SPEAKING TO A PENSIONFUND MANAGER AT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT DOING BUSINESS IN AMERICAAND WE TRY TO BRING UP THE TOPIC OF U.S. POLITICS.HE TALKED ABOUT THE EASE OF DOING BUSINESS IN SOME STATESVERSUS OTHERS. I SAID NAME THEM. RELUCTANT TO DO SO, HEMENTIONED TEXAS. MIKE WORTH, TALK TO HIM ABOUTDOING BUSINESS IN CALIFORNIA.

LISA:I BELIEVE THEY ARE NOT REFINING AND PULLING BACK FROM CERTAINCALIFORNIA ACTIVITIES. THERE IS A QUESTION OF CANSTATES TAKE THE HELM GIVEN THE NATIONAL UNCERTAINTY. JONATHAN:WE WILL START THIS HOUR WITH THIS CONVERSATION ON IOWA.THE FRONT RUNNER FOR THE REPUBLICAN IS RUNNING AWAY WITHTHAT VERY EARLY ON. LIBBY CANTRILL JOINS US.HEAD OF PUBLIC POLICY AT PIMCO. GREAT TO GET YOUR PERSPECTIVEON ALL OF THIS. LET'S START WITH RESULTSOVERNIGHT.

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? LIBBY:HARDLY SHOCKING. GOOD MORNING FROM A VERY SNOWYNEW YORK. THE BIG QUESTION WAS IS THISGOING TO BE A CORONATION OF DONALD TRUMP?HE HAS OBVIOUSLY BEEN THE CLEAR FRONT RUNNER IN POLLS FORMONTHS. I THINK LAST NIGHT UNDERSCORESTHE NARRATIVE THAT THIS IS VERY MUCH HIS NOMINATION TO LOSE. NOT ONLY DID HE CLEAR THAT 50%,WHICH WAS SOMETHING THAT WAS SYMBOLICALLY IMPORTANT FOR THETRUMP CAMPAIGN.

IN TERMS OF THE ALTERNATIVES TOA TRUMP CANDIDACY, THERE WAS NO REAL CLEAR ALTERNATIVE THATEMERGED. RON DESANTIS CAME IN A DISTANTSECOND. NIKKI HALEY A CLOSE THIRD TOTHAT. IN TERMS OF SEPARATING THEFIELD , SEPARATING THAT ALTERNATIVE AND CONSOLIDATINGTHAT ANTI-TRUMP VOTE, THAT DID NOT HAPPEN LAST NIGHT.THIS WAS A GOOD NIGHT FOR FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP.IT WILL LIKELY CORROBORATE THE NARRATIVE IN THE MARKET THATTHIS IS VERY MUCH TRUMP'S.

NOMINATION TO LOSE. LISA:HE WROTE ONE OF THE MOST INTERESTING AND QUOTABLE THINGSIN YOUR NOTES. YOU WROTE TO WILL NOT BEPRESIDENT, OPRAH WINFREY WILL NOT BE PRESIDENT.I ASK YOU WHY BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE SAYING THEY WILL SWOOP INAND END UP RUNNING. WHAT DO YOU TELL CLIENTS ASTHEY REALIZE IT IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE ANOTHER DONALDTRUMP AND JOE BIDEN MATCHUP. WHAT YOU TELL THEM ABOUT WHAT ADONALD TRUMP PRESIDENCY WOULD LOOK LIKE? LIBBY:WE HAVE GOTTEN SOME QUESTIONS,.

PARTICULATE FROM OUR FOR URBAN– PARTICULATE FROM OUR FOREIGN CLIENTS WHO ARE A BIT BEFUDDLEDBY THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SITUATION IN ARE SAYING THATOUT OF HOPE. WHAT WE TELL THEM IS,PRACTICALLY SPEAKING, THERE WILL BE NO OTHER DEMOCRATICCANDIDATE. JOE BIDEN WILL BE THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE.AT THIS POINT IT DOES LOOK — IT IS NOT FOR SURE.AS IT RELATES TO THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY, NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BECRITICAL. IF DONALD TRUMP WINS NEWHAMPSHIRE IT IS BASICALLY OVER.

IF HE DOES NOT IN NIKKI HALEYDOES WIN, THAT IT IS MORE OF AN OPEN QUESTION.IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE A 2020 REDUX.IN TERMS OF THE POLICIES, I THINK IF WE SAW A SECOND TRUMPADMINISTRATION IT WOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST TRUMPADMINISTRATION. LATER REGULATION, MORE TAX CUTSAND THINGS THE MARKET WOULD LIKE. IN TERMS OF THE GLOBALLANDSCAPE AND THE GLOBAL POSTURE, MUCH MORE OF ARETRENCHMENT. MUCH MORE PROTECTIONISM, WHICHAS WE KNOW, AS WE SAW IN THE.

FIRST TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILLKEEP THE MARKET ON ITS TOES. IT IS UNUSUAL IN THAT WE WOULDHAVE TWO INCUMBENTS, JOE BIDEN AND DONALD TRUMP RUNNINGAGAINST EACH OTHER. IN SOME WAYS IT IS LESSUNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE KNOW THESE GENTLEMEN VERY WELL. ANNMARIE:IT IS THE GENTLEMAN THE AMERICANS DO NOT WANT TO SEEGOING UP HEAD-TO-HEAD IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLLS.I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE POLITICAL TIMELINE.NIKKI HALEY JUST BEHIND THE FORMER PRESIDENT IN NEWHAMPSHIRE.

WITH RON DESANTIS HAVING ADECENT SHOWING IN IOWA, HE WILL STICK AROUND.HOW DOES SHE CHASE THE TOP AND DEFEND HERSELF FROM THE BOTTOM?LIBBY: THAT IS WHY LAST NIGHT WAS SUCHA GOOD NIGHT FOR DONALD TRUMP. THERE WAS NO CLEAR ALTERNATIVETO TRUMP. THERE WAS NO PRECIPITATINGFACTOR THAT WOULD LEAD TO A CONSOLIDATION OF THAT VOTE. AS A RESULT, DESANTIS WILL STAYIN THIS, POTENTIALLY UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA, AND THAT ISPARTICULARLY BAD FOR NIKKI.

HALEY.SHE HAS MUCH MORE OF A GROUND GAME AND INVESTMENT IN NEWHAMPSHIRE. AS WE KNOW, THIS IS A NUANCEDPOINT BUT IT IS AN IMPORTANT OPEN PRIMARY IN NEW HAMPSHIRESO UNAFFILIATED VOTERS CAN VOTE, NOT JUST REPUBLICANS.THAT WILL HELP HER. I THINK WE NEED TO SEESOMETHING DEFINITIVE OUT OF NEW HAMPSHIRE IN TERMS OF HERMOMENTUM. IF WE DO NOT, I THINK IT ISLIKELY THIS REPUBLICAN NOMINATION COULD BE OVER BEFOREIT BEGINS.

IT WOULD BE DONALD TRUMP AGAINAS THE LIKELY NOMINEE. ANNMARIE:ARE WE GOING TO ALL GOING HOME TO A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN OR DOYOU THINK SPEAKER JOHNSON CAN GET THIS PROLONGED APPROACHDONE WITH A CONTINUING RESOLUTION? LIBBY: IT IS THE SAME MENU AND ADIFFERENT WAITER. IT IS THE SAME DYNAMICS THATELECTED FORMER SPEAKER MCCARTHY IN THE FALL.IT IS THE REASON WE NEEDED ANOTHER TEMPORARY FUNDING BILLLATE LAST YEAR.

WE HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE.IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY WE SEE AND OTHER SO-CALLED CONTINUINGRESOLUTION. MARCH FIRST AND MARCH 8, THEBOTTOM LINE FROM A MARKET PERSPECTIVE IS IT IS BASICALLYNOISE AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL AVOID A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN YETAGAIN. IT LOOKS LIKELY WE AVOID AGOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. IN MARCH WHEN THE RUBBER WILLFINALLY MEET THE ROAD AND THE NEED TO PASS THESEAPPROPRIATIONS BILLS TO FUND THE GOVERNMENT THROUGH THE ENDOF FISCAL YEAR 2024, THAT MAY.

BE A DIFFERENT STORY.AT LEAST FOR THIS MONTH WE HAVE AVOIDED A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWNYET AGAIN. TOM: WE HAVE SIT — JONATHAN:WE HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIE QUITE A FEW TIMES.THE WONDERFUL LIBBY CANTRILL ON IOWA AND THE MARKET SHUT DOWN.EVERYBODY HAS BEEN CONDITIONED BY SEEING THIS STORY ON REPEATAND SEEING THE SAME ENDING. LISA:THAT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY GET A DEAL DONE.WE TALK ABOUT POLITICAL DYSFUNCTION AND INABILITY TOGET THINGS DONE.

NO ONE IN MARKETS TEARS.WE ARE DEALING WITH MARKETS LOOKING PAST ALL OF THESETHINGS, AND WHY SHOULDN'T THEY, BECAUSE IT HAS NOT COME TOFRUITION AGAIN AND AGAIN. JONATHAN:IS IT DIFFERENT THIS TIME? ANNMARIE: IT IS NOT DIFFERENT.THE GOVERNMENT WILL REMAIN OPEN. THEY ARE DOING A LADDEREDAPPROACH. THERE ARE NOW TWO DATES FOR THEGOVERNMENT TO SHUT DOWN. MY QUESTION IS DOES SPEAKERJOHNSON HOLD HIS GAVEL? MCCARTHY LOST IT WITH THE SAMEMOVIE. JONATHAN:.

THAT IS A BIG QUESTION.TOM KEENE WOULD LOOK OUT INTO THE DISTANCE AND SAY YOU CANSEE ITALY FROM HERE AND PEOPLE WOULD BELIEVE HIM. HE WOULD SAY IT WITH SUCHAUTHORITY THAT YOU CAN SEE ITALY.COMING UP NEXT, THE GOVERNOR OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN CENTRAL BANK.♪ >> WE DON'T THINK THE RATESWILL COME BACK DOWN TO LEVELS WE SAW PRE-COVID JUST BECAUSEOF THE LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT DEBT AND SPENDING AND THE STATE OFTHE ECONOMY ACROSS THE WORLD.

LOWER MORTGAGES AND WE SEE THATCONTINUING GOING FORWARD. JONATHAN:THAT WAS THE LLOYDS BANKING GROUP CEO SPEAKING TO FRANCINELACQUA ON HIS OUTLOOK FOR THE U.K. ECONOMY AND RATES.BIG CONVERSATION ABOUT GLOBAL RATES IN DAVOS, SWITZERLAND.WE WERE TALKING TO 10 ROGOFF OF HARVARD.HIGHER FOR LONGER IS HIS MANTRA. LISA:BASICALLY SAYING 3.5% IS THE ENDING RATE FOR THIS FEDBECAUSE WE DO GET THE SOFT LANDING.THEN GOING UP TO 4% AND 5%.

THEREAFTER BECAUSE OF THEDEFICIT. NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT THEDEFICIT. JONATHAN: GREG JENSEN OF BRIDGEWATER TOTALK ABOUT THE DEFICIT. AT SOME POINT WILL GET TO THATWALL. WHAT DOES THAT DAY LOOK LIKE?I ALWAYS ASK THAT, WHAT DOES THE DAY LOOK LIKE WHEN WE STARTTO CARE ABOUT IT. LISA: THAT IS WHY WE HAVE TO FOCUS ONTHE OPTIONS. — ON THE AUCTIONS. THE DAY WHERE THERE IS A TRUELACK OF BUYERS WERE A FEELING OF FRUSTRATION, A FEELING OF ALACK OF A BID. JONATHAN:.

THAT IS THE DAY THE FROG DIESBUT FOR NOW KEEP SPOILING. EQUITY FUTURES — BUT FOR NOWIT KEEPS BOILING. EQUITY FUTURES.AT 7:30 IT WILL GET NUMBERS FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND MORGANSTANLEY. SONALI BASAK WILL BREAK THATDOWN IN NEW YORK CITY. LISA: WE KIND OF GOT A BLEAK LOOKFROM SOME OF THE CEOS. CITIGROUP COMING OUT WITH THEKITCHEN SINK, SAYING THEY WILL BE CUTTING DRAMATICALLY.WHAT DID YOU HEAR FROM MORGAN STANLEY AND GOLDMAN SACHS, NOWTHAT THEY ARE JETTISONING.

CONSUMER FACING BUSINESSES, NOWTHAT THE INTEREST-BEARING PARTS OF THE BUSINESS ARE THE BOOMFOR THE OTHER BANKS. JONATHAN: WE WILL CATCH UP WITH ONE OF MYFAVORITES RIGHT NOW. HE DOES NOT LIKE THE COLD.IT IS THE GOVERNOR OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN RESERVE BANK.GOOD AFTERNOON. HOW ARE YOU. >> I AM GOOD, THANKS.HOW ARE YOU? JONATHAN: ARE YOU ENJOYING THIS WEATHER? >> AFTER COMING FROM 38 DEGREESCELSIUS THIS IS SOMETHING. JONATHAN:WE SAW YOU IN JACKSON HOLE IN.

LATE AUGUST AND WE STILL DO NOTGET THE NICE WEATHER. I WANT TO PICK UP ON THECONVERSATION WE STARTED IN JACKSON HOLE.WE TALKED ABOUT THE FEDERAL RESERVE FRONTLOADING INTERESTRATE HIKES AND EVERY TIME YOU AND I CATCH UP IT IS WORTHREMINDING EVERYBODY WHO FOLLOWS THE STORY THE ORIGINAL FRONTLOADERS WERE NOT THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND THE ECB AND THEBANK OF ENGLAND. THE ORIGINAL FRONT LOADERS CAMEFROM EMERGING MARKETS. ARE YOU GOING TO BE THE FIRSTAS WELL?.

>> THIS IS A DISCUSSION THATFASCINATES ME. EARLIER IN YOUR CONVERSATIONYOU ARE TALKING ABOUT — THE HARVARD PROFESSOR WAS TALKINGABOUT INTEREST RATES BEING HIGHER FOR LONGER AND ONE OFTHE THINGS I WANT TO START MY CONVERSATION WITH IS WE LOOKAND SAY HOW — THAT IS THE POINT OF DEPARTURE.SO FAR INFLATION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN WE HAD THOUGHT. WE HAVE HAD A FEW — INFLATIONYIELDED A LOW OF 4.7. IT TURNED AGAIN BEFORE IT WENTDOWN.

INFLATION IS MORE PERSISTENT.IF WE WANT TO LOOK AT WHICH CENTRAL EVENTS WILL CUT FIRSTIT IS THOSE THAT HAD SUCCEEDED IN BRINGING INFLATION DOWN TOTARGET, OR AT THE LEAST, THE ONES WITH A LOT MORE POLICYROOM. YOU HAVE SEEN THAT. THE CUTTERS THIS TIME AROUNDHAVE BEEN THE LATIN AMERICAN CENTRAL BANKS THAT HAD VERYHIGH REAL INTEREST RATES. THAT IS WHAT YOU SHOULD BELOOKING AT. BECAUSE OF SOUTH AFRICA OURREAL RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.INFLATION IS WITHIN A TARGET.

IT IS NOT QUITE WHERE WE WOULDLIKE TO SEE IT IF WE ARE TO MAKE ANY POLICY ADJUSTMENTS WEWOULD HAVE TO SEE INFLATION HAS DECLINED TO OUR ANCHOR, WHICHIS 4.5%. JONATHAN: HAS SOMETHING CHANGEDDOMESTICALLY OR IN THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY WITH THEGUARDS TO INFLATION SINCE THE PANDEMIC? >> IT IS GOING TO BE ANINTERESTING CALL. I THINK THAT GLOBALLY CENTRALBANKS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE EXTENT OF THE CONSTRAINTS THATWE FACE IN THE SUPPLY CHAINS.

THOSE HAVE EASED TO AN EXTENT.INFLATION IS STILL STUBBORNLY HIGH AND THAT FOR RATES TO BEANCHORED WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP RATES HIGHER FOR LONGER.WE ARE FACED WITH SOMETHING THAT IN THE CASE OF SOUTHAFRICA WE HAVE NOT SEEN. A PUBLIC THAT IS INCREASINGLYINTOLERANT OF HIGH INFLATION. THAT IS WHAT — CENTRAL BANKS,WHICH QUESTIONED ABOUT WIRE YOU SO AGGRESSIVE, WIRYFRONTLOADING , YOU ARE NOT BEING CRITICIZED FOR NOTGETTING DONE ENOUGH TO REIN IN INFLATION.

LISA:WE SAY A LOT OF TIMES JEROME POWELL IS BANKER TO THE WORLDAND I FEEL BAD FOR EVERYBODY ELSE IN THE WORLD WHO IS DOINGPOLICY FOR THOSE COUNTRIES. IS THAT THE TRUTH THAT UNTILJEROME POWELL CUTS RATES YOU WILL NOT GET THE ALL CLEAR TOCUT RATES BECAUSE OF THE CURRENCY DIFFERENTIAL AND THEFEAR OF DEVALUATION? >> A GREAT CENTRAL BANKER HE IS.HE IS THE CHAIRMAN OF THE RESERVE BANK OF THE UNITEDSTATES, NOT THE FEDERAL RESERVE OF THE WORLD.I HAVE NO DOUBT WHEN HE MAKES.

DECISIONS, THEY MAKE DECISIONSBASED ON THE DYNAMICS AND THE OUTLOOK OF THE UNITED STATESECONOMY. THAT IS VERY IMPORTANT. IN OUR CASE THE U.S.IS A BEAT ECONOMY. WE ARE A SMALL ECONOMY.WE WATCH WHAT THE U.S. DOES BUT WE DO NOT NECESSARILYFOLLOW THE U.S. IN EVERY MOVE. THE CASE IN POINT THAT JONATHANWAS RAISING WAS IN 2021, WHEN WE SAW INFLATION WAS CREEPINGUP AND THERE WAS A NOTION AMONG THE ADVANCED ECONOMIES THAT ITWAS A TEMPORARY PHENOMENON, WE TOOK THE VIEW THAT EMERGINGMARKETS HAVE BEEN THERE AND.

SEEN IT BEFORE AND IT IS TIMEFOR ACTION AND WE ARE GLAD WE ACTED BECAUSE WE ARE ABLE TOSTART MOVE TOWARDS TARGET MUCH EARLIER THAN THE ADVANCEDECONOMIES. LISA: THE FACT THAT YOU ARE ANEARLIER SEER OF WHAT WAS GOING TO COME MAKES IT INTERESTING TOME YOU ARE MORE RELUCTANT TO SIGNAL CUTS THAN THE UNITEDSTATES. DO YOU AGREE THAT BECAUSE OFHIGHER INFLATION AND STICKIER INFLATION THAT RATES HAVE TOREMAIN HIGHER FOR A LONGER TIME? >> I WOULD TAKE IT FURTHER.IT IS NOT JUST DEFICITS.

LOOK AT THE LEVELS OF PUBLICDEBT ACROSS THE WORLD. THESE LEVELS HAVE GOT TO BEBROUGHT DOWN. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAD HAPPENED HISTORICALLY WAS WEALLOWED INFLATION TO ERODE THE DEBT, BUT YOU HAVE A PUBLICINTOLERANT OF HIGH INFLATION. THAT IS NOT AN OPTION THAT ISAVAILABLE. TWO, YOU HAVE TREASURIESGLOBALLY THAT HAVE BEEN ADDICTED TO CHEAP MONEY.THE AIR OF CHEAP MONEY IS GONE AND MANY TREASURIES ARE FINDINGTHEIR BORING AT RATES.

SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WHATTHEY WERE BORROWING AT BEFORE THE PANDEMIC AND DURING THEPANDEMIC. THIRD IS THAT EVEN IN THATSPACE, WHAT YOU ARE HAVING IS YOU HAVE A WHOLE GENERATION OFTHE PUBLIC THAT HAD KNOWN ONLY LOW INFLATION AND LOW INTERESTRATES. NOW INFLATION HAS RISEN ANDINTEREST RATES HAD TO RISE. THERE INTOLERANT OF INFLATION.YOU SEE INTEREST RATES BEING HIGHER FOR LONGER UNTIL THEBATTLE OF THE INFLATION FRONT HAS BEEN WON. JONATHAN:LET'S DO SOMETHING PROVOCATIVE.

YOU INTRODUCE THE TOPICS.SOMETIMES GOVERNMENTS MAKE LIFE HARDER FOR MONETARY POLICYOFFICIALS. THERE IS A BUDGET COMING UP ANDI WONDER DOMESTICALLY WHAT YOU WILL BE LOOKING FOR THAT BUDGET?>> IF THE MINISTER OF FINANCE WAS SITTING HERE AND YOU ASKEDHIM WHAT HE EXPECTS OF THE CENTRAL BANK HE WAS GOING TOSAY HE DOES NOT VENTURE INTO THAT.I DO NOT VENTURE INTO THAT. JONATHAN: WHY NOT? [LAUGHTER] >> SOME OF THE CENTRAL BANKERSMIGHT'VE BEEN POLITICIANS.

BEFORE. I HAPPEN TO BE. THERE HAS BEEN A PRONOUNCEMENTFROM THE SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL TREASURY TO SAID THE FISCALPOLICY ON A SUSTAINABLE PART. I'VE NO REASON TO SECOND-GUESSTHEM IN EVERY REASON IF THEY HAD MAJOR COMMITMENT THEY WILLMEET THIS COMMITMENT. FISCAL POLICY IS NOT GOOD EASYTHIS YEAR. THERE MORE THAN 60 COUNTRIESGOING FOR ELECTIONS. JONATHAN: IS A MASSIVE YEAR. >> IT NOT GOING TO BE EASY.JONATHAN:.

THAT WAS THE DIPLOMATICRESPONSE I EXPECTED. ♪ JONATHAN:LET'S HEAD OVER TO NEW YORK CITY AND CATCH UP WITH SONALIBASAK. SONALI: WE HAVE GOLDMAN SACHS NUMBERSOUT AND WE HAVE BEEN BEATING ON A NUMBER OF KEY METRICS,BEATING ON REVENUE, BEATING HANDILY ON EQUITIES TRADING ASWELL. THEY ARE MIXED ON FIXED INCOMETRADING BUT WE KNOW THE MARKET WAS SOFTER WHEN IT CAME TOINTEREST RATES AND CREDIT.

ONE THING WE KNOW ABOUT GOLDMANSACHS AS THEY ARE PUSHING HARD TO WIN ON FINANCING AND THEREIS WHERE YOU SEE RECORD NUMBERS IN THEIR FINANCING BUSINESS.WHEN I AM TELLING YOU THEY BEAT ON EQUITIES WE ARE TELLING YOUTHEY CAME IN MEANINGFULLY ABOUT ANY OTHER COMPETITOR ON WALLSTREET FOR THE QUARTER AND THE FULL YEAR.WHEN WE SEE MORGAN STANLEY'S NUMBER COME OUT, IT IS THE CASETHEY HAVE ALSO BEAT MORGAN STANLEY ON EQUITIES SALES ANDTRADING FIGURES AS WELL. MORGAN STANLEY FIGURES OUT ASWELL. GOLDMAN HAS BEAT THEM ONCE.

AGAIN FOR THE QUARTER INEQUITIES TRADING. AS WE WATCH MORGAN STANLEY'SNUMBERS ACROSS THE WIRE, THE NUMBERS LOOK STRONG.YOU ALSO HAVE MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REVENUEBEATING EXPECTATIONS. THEY HAD ONE-TIME CHARGES ONOTHER MATTERS. FROM MORGAN STANLEY WE KNOW ITWAS A PROVISION FOR LEGAL EXPENSES AS WELL.WE ARE LOOKING AT STRONG NUMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD.YOU ARE SEEING STOCKS REACTING. MORGAN STANLEY UP 1.6%.FOR MORGAN STANLEY THIS IS THE.

FINAL QUARTER OF JAMES TANNERAND THEIR PASSING THE REINS OVER. LISA: WE ARE HEARING FROM DAVIDSOLOMON CALLING 20 FOR THE YEAR OF EXECUTION.WHAT IS THE YEAR OF EXECUTION? SONALI:YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER LAST YEAR THERE WERE A LOT OF QUARTERSWHERE THEY HAD RETURNS THAT WERE MUTED, BELOW EXPECTATIONS,AND SOMETIMES THE WORST THEY HAVE SEEN IN YEARS.WHAT YOU ARE SEEING NOW IS THEM TURNING AROUND THE STORY, NOTONLY BEATING ON KEY METRICS.

THEY ARE THE ONLY BANK THATBROUGHT IN ONE MORE THAN $1 MILLION IN A BAD YEAR FOR DEALS.LAST YEAR. THEY ARE BRINGING IN STILL MORETHAN A BILLION IN FEES AND BUYS MEANT.THEY ARE HAVING THEIR ACID WEALTH MANAGER BEATEXPECTATIONS. LAST YEAR THEY TOOK A LOT OFCHURCHES TIED ASSETS TIED TO CHARGES OF THE CONSUMER UNITTHEY WERE OFFLOADING OR WHEN IT CAME TO THEIR HISTORICALPRINCIPAL INVESTMENTS. THESE ARE BALANCE SHEETS HEAVYINVESTMENTS THEY ARE TRYING TO.

REDUCE RELIANCE ON.IN THEIR MOST RECENT QUARTER THEY ANNOUNCED THEY HAVE BEATTHEIR FUNDRAISING BUT TATIAN'S AND BROUGHT IN MORE THIRD-PARTYRUNNING THAN THEY SET OUT TO DO AS WELL AS BEATING NET REVENUES.THEY ARE SHOWING PROGRESS. THEY STILL OF THE TABLE WITHONE-TIME ITEMS THEY HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE QUARTERS.IF YOU LOOK AT THE HITS THEY HAVE BEEN TAKEN, THE SCOPE OFTHOSE LOSSES ARE MUCH LOWER IN THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN PRIORQUARTERS AND THEY ARE BEING PRIDED FOR BEING CONSERVATIVEON THE ONSET.

WHEN IT COMES TO THEIR LOANPORTFOLIOS, AND THE LOSSES ARE BECOMING MORE MUTED DAVIDSOLOMON IS COMING OUT AND SAYING THIS IS GOLDMANSTRATEGY, WE HAVE MADE SOME MISTAKES IN CONSUMER BEFORE BUTWE ARE MOVING ON AND FOCUSING ON THE CORE BUSINESS, WHICH ISWHERE YOU ARE SEEING SOMEWHERE IN. — WHICH IS WHERE YOU ARESEEING SOME WINS. LISA:YOU WILL BE ANALYZING THIS FOR HOURS TO COME.WE ARE SEEING CREDIT LOSSES MUCH LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLYEXPECTED.

FOR GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTEDLOSSES 537 MILLION VERSUS AN ESTIMATE OF 621 MILLION.FOR MORGAN STANLEY THE NUMBERS 3 MILLION VERSUS 133 MILLIONYOU THINK IT IS CLEAR ECONOMISTS ARE SAYING THEECONOMY IS BETTER AND PEOPLE WILL PAY THEIR BILLS. SONALI:YOU DID SEE THE BIGGEST BANKS ON THE CHART OFFERINGS COME INHIGHER AND GUIDE FOR THE YEAR THE CHARGE OPERATES WOULD STARTTO INCREASE THROUGH THE YEAR. FOR JP MORGAN THAT IS LESS THAN3.5% ADVERSITY GROUP IT IS BETWEEN 3.5% AND 4%.GOLDMAN SACHS AND MORGAN.

STANLEY , THEY ARE WEIGHTED TOTHE WEALTHIER CONSUMER AND INSTITUTIONS.YOU'VE NOT SEEN THE TYPE OF STRESS IN THOSE MARKETS THATWERE INITIALLY INVESTED FROM MANY INVESTORS.SHOULD RATE START TO GO DOWN, THAT DISTRESS, THOSE LOSSES ONCREDIT BOOKS COULD BE LESS PRONOUNCED THAN EXPECTED. WAS INTERESTING IS WE ARESEEING WEAKNESS IN UNDERWRITING FEES. GOLDMAN HAD MISSED ON BOTHFORMS. HOWEVER, YOU ARE SEEING A JUMP BACK — PERHAPS TOBURLING TO TAKE ON MORE RISK.

AND CREDIT MARKETS WHICH BODESWELL FOR MORGAN STANLEY WHO IS RATED TAKE ON SUCH RISK.JONATHAN: LET'S GET TO THE EARLY MOVES INTHE PREMARKET. GOLDMAN SACHS UP .1%.SIMILAR STORY FOR MORGAN STANLEY. THAT DOESN'T.WE HAVE HAD ALL OF THE BIG EARNINGS FROM MORGAN STANLEY,FROM GOLDMAN, THE LIKES OF JP MORGAN AS WELL.LET'S THINK ABOUT REGULATION. THAT WILL BE A BIG FEATURE OFTHE CONVERSATION IN DAVOS. WE KNOW THEY ARE UNHAPPY ABOUTTHE PROSPECT OF HIGHER CAPITAL.

REQUIREMENT.WHERE'S THAT CONVERSATION HEADED? SONALI:IS HEADED IN A DIRECTION THAT IS GETTING QUITE UGLY BECAUSEYOU HAVE THE BANKS PUSHING BACK HARD AND SING TO LAWMAKERS THATNOT ONLY WILL IT CONSTRAIN LENDING TO HAVE THESE WEREFIREMAN'S, BUT REMEMBER — TO HAVE THESE REQUIREMENTS, BUTREMEMBER THEY HAVE CONSTRAINTS THEY ARE BEHOLDEN TO AS WELL ASOTHER CONSTRAINTS ON THEIR TRADING ACTIVITY THEY ARGUEWOULD BE A PAIN TO THE TREASURY MARKET.CERTAINLY THERE FIGHTING BACK.

HARD. NONE OF THESE BANKERS, IT WAS ASTAUNCH PERSON TO ADVOCATE AGAINST THOSE RULES, THEY DONOT THINK THEY WILL PASS THIS FORUM.ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS WHAT DOES THIS LOOK AT INTO THEELECTION CYCLE. TO THESE BANKS HAVE THE SAMESORT OF DIFFICULT REGULATORY ENVIRONMENTS HERE THEY HAD HADIN THE LAST FOUR YEARS? IS NOT JUST CAPITALCONSTRAINTS, THESE BANKS HAVE FACED RECORD FINDS THROUGHAGREEMENTS AND SETTLEMENTS THEY.

HAVE MAJOR DIFFERENT REGULATORS.REGULATION WILL BE A BIG PART OF THE STORY.THE TRADING BOOKS ARE WHAT I AM WATCHING.A LOT OF THESE FIRMS HAVE MADE LARGE WINDFALLS FROM TRADINGACTIVITIES IN RECENT YEARS AND THAT CAN BE MORE CONSTRAINEDWHEN YOU SEE THE LIKES OF JANE STREET AND CITADEL SECURITIESSTARTING TO RAKE IN RECORD NUMBERS AS THE BANK REGULATION.JONATHAN: GREAT WORK IS ALWAYS BREAKINGDOWN THE NUMBERS ON WALL STREET. MORGAN STANLEY POSITIVE 2%.GOLDMAN SACHS POSITIVE ALMOST.

1%.WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE EARNINGS IN JUST A MOMENT.LET'S TALK ABOUT THE REGULATORY REGIME.THE PENDULUM COULD SWING THE OTHER WAY AROUND.SUPER EARLY DAYS. IF YOU GET A CHANGE IN THEWHITE HOUSE COULD WE GET A CHANGE IN REGIME? LISA:THAT IS WHAT WE HEARD FROM LIBBY CANTRILL. WHAT WE COULD EXPECT FROM APRESIDENCY 2.0 IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE.YET I DO NOT THINK THE BANKERS.

ARE BACKING DONALD TRUMP. THE BANKING — EVERYONE IS SOFULL WE CAN TURN THE VOLUME DOWN.ISN'T THAT THE ULTIMATE HOPE? LISA:THAT IS CERTAINLY THE HOPE HERE AND EVERYONE IS IT FEELING THESAME WHICH IS WHY — THE OUTCOME HAS BECOME ANINEVITABILITY. JONATHAN: FOR CASSIDY JOINS US NOW.NUMBERS FROM MORGAN STANLEY AND GOLDMAN. YOUR FIRST REACTION? GERARD:NUMBERS WERE VERY SIMILAR TO.

WHAT WE SAW ON FRIDAY WITH JPMORGAN AND CITIGROUP. THE INVESTMENT BANKING NUMBERSFOR THE NUMBERS BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED INADVISORY BUT GENERALLY ECM AND DCM WERE ON THE LIGHT SIDERELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS. WHEN YOU GO INTO THE TRADINGSIDE, WE SAW MIXED RESULTS. EQUITY TRADING WAS STRONG, NOTSO MUCH AGAINST EXPECTATIONS. THAT IS WHAT WE SAW ON FRIDAY.THE QUARTERS IN CAPITAL MARKETS WERE DECENT QUARTERS BUT THEYWERE NOT REAL PROBLEMS, EITHER. THE KEY QUESTION IS WHAT ISYELLOW FOR 2024? LISA:.

WE HEARD THAT FROM JP MORGANAND CITIGROUP AND BANK OF AMERICA AND IT WAS NOT THATPOSITIVE. DO YOU EXPECT TO HEAR THE SAMEKIND OF COLD WATER FROM THE CEOS OF MORGAN STANLEY ANDGOLDMAN SACHS? GERARD: IT IS GOING TO BE MARKETDEPENDENT. AS YOU KNOW, DURING VOLATILEMARKETS, TRADING GOES QUITE WELL. FIRST QUARTER 2022 IS A GOODEXAMPLE WHEN SADLY RUSSIA INVADED UKRAINE.IT IS NOT GOOD FOR INVESTMENT.

BANKING RESULTS.INVESTMENT BANKING NEEDS STABILITY AND CENTRAL MARKETS. NOW THE FED LOOKING LIKE — IFWE HAVE A PAUSE OR STEADINESS IN THE MARKETS AND RATES DO NOTGO UP HIGHER, I THINK INVESTMENT BANKING,PARTICULARLY IN THE ECM AND ADVISORY BUSINESS COULD BESTANDS OUT IN 2024, BUT WE MAY NOT SEE STRONG TRADING NUMBERSIN EQUITIES. LISA: WHO IS WINNING IN THE BANKINGEARNINGS RACE? GERARD: I WOULD SAY THEY ARE ALTOGETHER.IN TERMS OF THE CAPITAL MARKETS.

BUSINESS COME AS YOU POINTEDOUT EARLIER IN THE PROGRAM, GOLDMAN SACHS IS A DOMINANTPLAYER IN CAPITAL MARKETS, AS IS JP MORGAN. THOSE GUYS GO IN AND NIGHT –GOAT CAN. AND THEN YOU HAVE MORGANSTANLEY, BANK OF AMERICA AND CITY.I WOULD SAY THERE WAS NO REAL STANDOUT OUT WHERE SOMEONE WASHEAD AND SHOULDERS ABOVE THE OTHERS.THEY ALL HAD DECENT NUMBERS IN THE QUARTER. JONATHAN:WE ARE AT THE WORLD ECONOMIC.

FORUM IN DABO'S SO WE CAN PUSHOUT THE TIMELINE. WHAT DO YOU THINK THE BANKINGINDUSTRY WILL LOOK LIKE IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS?WHAT ARE THE BUSINESS LINES THESE COMPANIES WILL HAVE TOPULL BACK FROM BECAUSE OF THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT? GERARD:IT IS VERY INTERESTING. WE SHOULD EXPECT A NUMBER OFCOMMENTS COMING FROM OF THE BIG BANKS POINTING OUT WHY THEYSHOULD PEEL BACK THE BASEL REGULATIONS.THE WORST IS PRICED IN. THERE WILL BE HIGHER CAPITALREQUIREMENTS, PARTICULARLY.

WITHIN THE HIGHER CAPITALBUSINESS, — THIS WILL BE INTERESTING WHEN YOU HAVE THELONGER-TERM OUTLOOK. AFTER THIS IS FINALLY SAID ANDDONE. LOVELY THIS YEAR WE GET THEFINAL PROPOSAL. WHAT WILL IT LOOK LIKE FOR THENEXT FIVE YEARS. IS THIS IT? IMAGINE THE BANKS HAVING THEOPPORTUNITY TO KNOW THESE ARE THE FINAL REGULATIONS OF THELAST FIVE YEARS AND IS A POSITIVE OUTCOME.PROFITABILITY WILL BE LOWER. KNOWING WHAT THE GOALPOST IS INNOT HAVING A MOVE IS A POSITIVE.

LISA:DOES IT ENABLE CEOS TO TRAVEL MORE HEAVILY INTO PRIVATECAPITAL. WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING HOWTHAT HAS TAKEN A LOT OF THE BUSINESS OUT OF THE TRADITIONALBREAD-AND-BUTTER OF BANKING 20 YEARS AGO. GERARD:YOU'RE RIGHT, IT HAS MADE BIG INROADS IN THE LAST 12 TO 24MONTHS. THE BANKS WILL LOOK TO GET MOREINVOLVED. WHENEVER WE SEE RAPID GROWTH INCREDIT EXTENSION WHICH IS WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE PRIVATECAPITAL AREA, YOU HAVE TO BE.

CAREFUL BECAUSE WE KNOW FROMHISTORY WHENEVER YOU SEE THAT IN AN ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ORRECESSION, THAT COMES BACK AND GIVES YOU A HARD TIME.THEY WILL GET MORE INVOLVED AND DO IT OR CAUTIOUSLY BUT THAT ISLINE OF BUSINESS THE BIG BANKS WILL PURSUE OVER THE NEXT 12 TOTRADE FOR MONTHS. JONATHAN: GREAT TO CATCH UP AS ALWAYS.GERARD CASSIDY OF RBC. NUMBERS OUT FROM MORGAN'S TAXAND — FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND MORGAN STANLEY. IN THE FIRST 15 MINUTES,RESPONDING TO THOSE NUMBERS AS.

THEY DROP.THE REGULATORY REGIME, LET'S THINK ABOUT WHAT GERARD JUSTTOLD US. IF WE GET A RUSH TO PRIVATEMARKETS IS MOODY'S RIGHT TO WARN YOU COULD GET A RACE TOTHE BOTTOM? LISA: THIS HAS BEEN SOMETHING PEOPLEHAVE RAISED FOR A LONG TIME. HAVE WE SEEN IT YET? WARREN BUFFETT SAID WHEN THETITLES OUT THERE IS A SENSE OF WHO IS SWIMMING NAKED. JONATHAN:AND WE DO NOT WANT TO SEE ANYONE SWIMMING NAKED, EITHER.WE DO NOT. LISA:.

IT IS A METAPHOR. COMING UP, ROBERT VINCE, PRESIDENT AND CEO OF BNY MELLON.EQUITY FUTURES PULLING BACK MOST OF THIS MORNING.WE ARE -.3%. ♪ >> THE RESILIENCE OF THEECONOMIES AND FINANCIAL MARKETS TO THE GEOPOLITICAL CRISESGOING ON TO THE RISE OF INTEREST RATES AND THE FIGHTAGAINST INFLATION HAS BEEN REMARKABLY STRONG.WHETHER THAT CONTINUES, THINK.

WE ARE HOPEFUL, THE OVERALLSENTIMENT FOR 2024 IS POSITIVE. JONATHAN:THE OVERALL SENTIMENT FOR 2023 WAS DREADFUL AND 2023 WASDECENT. 2024 IS POSITIVE. WE'LL SEE HOW THAT TURNS OUT.THAT WAS THE DEUTSCHE BANK CFO. YOU GET THE FEELING ANYTHINGSAID AT DAVOS NEEDS TO BE PUSHED BACK ON, BECAUSE IT ISLIKE A HIGHLIGHT REEL OF BAD FORECAST. LISA:IT HAS BEEN EVERY FORECAST HEADING INTO EVERY YEAR,EVERYTHING IS WRONG. EVERYONE SEEMS PRETTYOPTIMISTIC ABOUT 2024.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS IS ABSENTLYPHENOMENAL WE HAVE SEEN THE FEDERAL RESERVE GO FROM 0% TO5.5%. UNEMPLOYMENT IS STILL BELOW 4%IN GDP IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF SOMETHING CLOSE TO A FIVEHANDLE. WE SHOULD BE REFLECTING ON THERESILIENCE OF THE ECONOMY. THE FACT THAT CREDIT SPREADSARE AS TIGHT AS THEY ARE THAT WAY MARKETS ALREADY WHISPERFROM ALL-TIME HIGH. THAT IS NOT WHERE WE THOUGHT WEWOULD BE 12 MONTHS AGO AND I WOULD SAY EVEN SIX. LISA:HAVE YOU HEARD ANY EXPLANATION.

FOR THAT THAT SEEMS DEFINITIVE?THERE IS RESILIENCY AND THE FACT THAT PEOPLE GOT GOBS OFCASH AND PORTED IT AND COMPANIES GOT GOBS OF CASH.IF RATES STAY AT THESE ELEVATED LEVELS WILL WE SEE THE SAMERESILIENCY. JONATHAN:IT IS THE HOPE WE ARE GOING BACK TO THE OLD WORD AND RATESARE GOING DOWN. THERE IS A PHRASE IN CREDIT,SURVIVE UNTIL 2025. RATES COMING DOWN WILL BE OK.LISA: AS LONG AS RATES ARE COMINGDOWN.

THAT IS ONE OF THE QUESTIONS UNDERPINNING THE SOFT CREAM OF– JONATHAN: ROBERT VINCE, GOOD AFTERNOON.I DID NOT REALIZE HOLD YOUR BANK WAS. ROBIN:240 YEARS OLD THIS YEAR. JONATHAN:LET'S TALK ABOUT THE RESILIENCE OF YOUR INSTITUTION AND THELAST 12 MONTHS. HOW IMPRESSED HAVE YOU BEEN BYTHAT FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE AND A MARKETPERSPECTIVE? ROBIN: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEARYOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THIS IN.

YOUR INTRO. 20% — 2023 WAS NOT THE YEAR WEWERE EXPECTING. WE SAW OUR CLIENTS ARE LOOKINGFOR A PARTNER LIKE US TO NAVIGATE THE UPS AND DOWNS.WE HAVE PLATFORMS THAT HAVE SPENT THE FINANCIAL WORLD.WE SAW IN THE SPRING WITH ASSET AND LIABILITY MANAGEMENT.WE SAW THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE YEAR.AT THE END OF THE DAY YOU DO NOT GET TO BE 240 YEARS OLDUNLESS YOU ARE RESILIENT IN HELPING YOUR CLIENTS. JONATHAN:IT SEEMS TO BE A DIFFERENT HERE.

IN FINANCIAL SERVICES.WE SAW JOBS CUT LAST YEAR FROM YOU? ROBIN: WE SAW JOB CUTS. LAST YEAR WAS ALSO THE YEAR WEDOUBLED OUR ANALYST INTAKE OF NEW GRADUATES OUT OF COLLEGEAND WE WILL DOUBLE IT AGAIN THIS YEAR. JONATHAN:ARE YOU HAPPY WITH THE SIZE OF THE WORKFORCE? ROBIN:OUR WORKFORCE IS REFLECTIVE OF THE WE ARE TRYING TO DO FOR OURCLIENTS. THERE ARE TAILWINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE EFFICIENCY THERE ISALSO NEW BUSINESSES.

WE LAUNCHED NEW PRODUCTS WITHINNOVATION AT THEIR CORE AND ARE FOCUSED ON BEING ABLE TOEXTENDED TRADING, WE HAVE EXTENDED IT TO OUR CLIENTS. THERE ARE BITS AND TAKES INTHEIR EQUATION FOR SURE. LISA: HOW MUCH IS THE WORK FROM HOMEMODEL DIED? JONATHAN: OUR VIEW — ROBIN:OUR VIEW IS WE WANT TO BE FLEXIBLE.WE HAVE THREE PILLARS OF STRATEGY.WE ARE WANTING TO BE MORE FOR OUR CLIENTS AND WE ALSO WANT TOPOWER OUR CULTURE.

WHAT WE SAID TO OUR PEOPLE ISTHERE ARE PUTS AND TAKES WITH THAT. WE NEED TO GIVE TO THEM.FLEXIBILITY IS AN EXAMPLE. WE DID A PROGRAM WHERE WE'VEMADE EVERY PERSON AT BNY MELLON A SHAREHOLDER OF THE COMPANY.WE HAVE ALSO IMPROVED OUR MENTAL HEALTH BENEFITS.WE ALSO ASKED MORE FROM OUR PEOPLE AND WE ASK THEM TO BEHERE AT LEAST THREE DAYS A WEEK DRIVING OUR CLIENTS FORWARD,CONTRIBUTING TO PUSHING FORWARD KNOWLEDGE WHICH I JUST TALKEDABOUT AT OUR ANALYST PROGRAM. YOU CANNOT HAVE NEW ANALYSTSUNLESS YOU HAVE PEOPLE TO TEACH.

THEM. LISA:ONE HUGE COMPONENT OF INCOME FOR A LOT OF BANKS HAS BEEN THEFACT THAT INTEREST RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH AND THEY DO NOT HAVETO PAY AS MUCH INTEREST TO A LOT OF DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS ANDTHAT HAS BEEN A TAIL WIND FOR PROFITABILITY. HOW MUCH DOES THAT GO AWAY THISYEAR ROBIN:? IT HAS BEEN A PART OF OURGROWTH THIS YEAR. WE DID NOT CHANGE OUR GUIDANCE. WE HAVE A LOT OF SOPHISTICATEDCLIENTS.

OUR CLIENTS EXPECT GOOD PAY OFINTEREST FROM US AND THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE DELIVERED TO THEM. OUR PREDICTION IS NII SOFT ANDTHIS YEAR. THAT IS WHERE THE FEE IN THEINNOVATION FROM OUR NEW PRODUCTS AND SERVICES, THAT ISWHAT WILL DRIVE US FORWARD THAT IS WHAT WE SENT TO THE MARKETWE ANNOUNCED EARNINGS LAST WEEK. JONATHAN:THROUGH WE FOCUS ON THE SPECIFIC BANKS THAT WENT UNDER?IT FELT LIKE THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM WAS UNDER THREAT AND WEMOVED ON QUICKLY.

ANY LESSONS FROM LAST YEAR?ROBIN: THERE WERE A LOT OF LESSONS WEPUT INTO PRACTICE. YOU TALKED ABOUT RESILIENCE.ASSET AND LIABILITY MANAGEMENT IS A CORE CONCEPT FOR A BANK.YOU HAVE TO DO IT REALLY WELL. WE WERE REMINDED OF THAT BUT IWOULD NOT CALL IT A LESSON. IT DID DEPEND WHO YOU WERE.AS WE WENT THROUGH THE YEAR WE HAD OTHER EXAMPLES OFIMPORTANCE OF RESILIENCY. WE TALK ABOUT AI A LOT ATBLOOMBERG. AI WILL BE IMPORTANT. AT THE END OF THE DAY IT NEEDSTO HAVE GUARDRAILS.

IF WE DO NOT THOSE THINGS WELL– LISA: HOW EXCITED ARE YOU ABOUTCRYPTO? YOU ARE THE FIRST MAJOR BANK TOOFFER CUSTODY SERVICES FOR CRYPTO RELATED ASSETS.ARE YOU EXPENDING THAT IN GOING TO ALL OF PARTIES HELD INDABO'S AT THE CRYPTO SPACE? ROBIN:I AM SKIPPING THE PARTIES. JONATHAN:THAT IS THE RIGHT ANSWER. ROBIN: IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU'VE BEENHAVING A LOT OF FUN AT THEM. LISA: ABSOLUTELY NOT. ROBIN:WE HAVE FOCUSED ON THE.

TECHNOLOGY.BLOCKCHAIN IS IMPORTANT FOR MARKETS.DIGITAL ASSETS, TOKENIZATION, ASSETS INTO THE MAINSTREAMFINANCIAL SYSTEM. WE TOUCHED WHEN A PERCENT OFALL OF THE INVESTABLE ASSETS IN THE WORLD SO WHEN THERE AREWAYS TO TAKE ASSETS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN EASY TO HANDLE AS PARTOF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND MAKE THEM MORE MAINSTREAM INTHEIR OPERATIONS, TOKENIZATION IS AN EXAMPLE OF THAT, WE AREALL FOR THAT. JONATHAN: FAITH IN HUMANITY.I WONDER HOW MUCH YOU HAVE?.

EVERY TIME WE MAKE ATECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT WE END UP WORKING MORE.AI, DO YOU THINK WE DO EVEN MORE, OR WILL WE WORK LESS? ROBIN:AI WILL CHANGE THE FUTURE OF JOBS.I WILL GIVE YOU TWO EXAMPLES. WE PLAY A VERY IMPORTANT ROLEIN THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET AND THAT ALLOWSUS TO SEE THINGS. AI HELPS US SEE THEM MORECLEARLY AND PROVIDE INSIGHTS TO OUR CLIENTS AND OUR CLIENTS AREINTERESTED IN THAT.

AN EXAMPLE OF IMPROVING QUALITYOF LIFE. WE HAVE HAD AI START TO DODRAFT WRITING OF SOME OF THE RESEARCH REPORTS AND IT IS NOTREPLACE THE PERSON WRITING IT. THE USED HAVE TO GET UP AT 4:00IN THE MORNING TO WRITE THE REPORT, NOW THEY CAN GET UP AT5:00 BECAUSE THEY HAVE A FIRST DRAFT COURTESY OF AI.THAT IS IMPROVEMENT. JONATHAN: AND NOW THEY WORK UNTIL 9:00 OR10:00 AT NIGHT. I AM JOKING. THAT IS MY LACK OF FAITH INHUMANITY. WE WILL ALL JUST WORK MORE.LISA:.

IT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE PEOPLEIN POSITIONS THAT THEY CAN DO THAT. JONATHAN:HUMAN NATURE IS HUMAN NATURE. FANTASTIC TO CATCH UP. ROBIN VINCE OF BNY MELLON.COMING UP, WE'LL CATCH UP WITH THE CHAIRMAN AND CEO OF CANTORFITZGERALD AND ALSO NEED TO TALK ABOUT EQUITY MARKETS.FUTURES ON THE S&P LOOKING LIKE THIS.EQUITY FUTURES STILL NEGATIVE ON THE S&P.DOWN ABOUT ONE THIRD. LISA: WE ARE WATCHING THE BOND MARKETAS WELL WITH YIELDS INFLECTED A.

TOUCH HIGHER.THE POSSIBILITY THE FED WILL NOT CUT RATES AS MUCH. JONATHAN:MORE ON THE POLITICS. THE RESULTS FROM IOWA.BLOOMBERG'S IN REORDERED ON THE SET WITH A — BLOOMBERG'SANNMARIE HORDERN ON THE SET WITH US IN SWITZERLAND. ♪ >> UNDER THE HOOD, THERE ISSOME INDICATION THAT THE LABOR MARKET IS MORE BALANCE. >> LABOR MARKET AT SOME POINTIN OUR VIEW WILL HAVE NOT.

NECESSARILY AN INCREDIBLE DROPOFF BUT A MORE NORMALIZED PROGRESSION. >> WE HAVE THE LABOR MARKET, WEHAVE HIGH LABOR COSTS COMING THROUGH THE PILING MY — THEPIPELINE. >> THE MARKET WILL HAVE MORE OFA PULLBACK THAN WE HAVE SEEN. >> MARKET WILL STAY CHOPPY FORTHE NEXT FEW WEEKS. >> THIS IS BLOOMBERGSURVEILLANCE LIVE FROM THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM IN DAVOS.JONATHAN: LIVE FROM DAVOS, SWITZERLANDFOR OUR AUDIENCE WORLDWIDE,.

GOOD AFTERNOON, THIS ISBLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE. WE TALKED ABOUT THE ECONOMICFORUM BEING A HIGHLIGHT REEL OF PEOPLE FORECASTING AND AHIGHLIGHT REEL OF PEOPLE COMPLAINING ABOUT THE COP ANDSITTING IN THE SUN WHICH NEVER MAKES SENSE. IN THE PREVIOUS HOUR, WECONCLUDED TALKING ABOUT RISK IN THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIALMARKETS. THE RESILIENCE HAS SUPPLIES ALLAND THE FACT THAT THE FED HAS GONE FROM QE TO QT IN THE SPACEOF TWO YEARS YET HERE WE ARE.

UNEMPLOYMENT IS SOUTH OF 4%,GDP AND THE THIRD CORTICAL SOMETHING CLOSE TO 5%, EQUITYMARKETS IT WHISPER FROM ALL-TIME HIGHS AND SPREADSINCREDIBLY TIGHT. THAT RESILIENCE CAN LEAD TOCONFIDENCE, MISPLACED CONFIDENCE AND MAYBE EVENCOMPLACENCY. YOU ARE LEANING ON THAT WORDPRETTY HARD AS WE KICK OFF THIS FORUM.CAN WE TURN TO STABILITY THIS YEAR? LISA:YOU HAVE THE ELECTION SITUATION WITH MANY — WHICH MANY PEOPLEARE TALKING ABOUT AND YET THE.

POTENTIAL FOR SHOCKS IN MANYDIFFERENT CONFLICTS THAT HAVE BEEN HEATING UP AND IT BIG WAY.THEY SAY WE CAN DEAL WITH HIGH INTEREST RATES IF THEY ARESTABLE OR STRONGER REGULATIONS IF THEY ARE STEADY.THAT'S A BIG IF IN A YEAR WHEN EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT THEPOTENTIAL VOLATILITY AND THESE ELECTIONS AND MISINFORMATIONAND OTHER CONCERNS. JONATHAN: IS POLITICS PREDICTABLE THISYEAR? IT LOOKS LIKE ANNMARIE: DONALD TRUMP IS THE INDIVIDUALTHAT WILL CARRY THE REPUBLICAN PARTY BUT THIS IS THE ELECTIONAMERICANS DON'T WANT.

THEY DON'T WANT A REMATCH.THESE TWO ARE MARRIED POLITICALLY AND IT LOOKS LIKEWE WILL GET THAT IN NOVEMBER. JONATHAN:IS I WAY IN INDICATION OF THE REST OF THE YEAR? ANNMARIE:THINGS CAN CHANGE IN A CAUCUS ROOM. YOU DON'T JUST STOP BY ANDDECIDE YOU WANT TO VOTE AND PUT IN TEST PUT IT IN THE BALLOTBOX. YOU HAVE TO DISCUSS IT WITH PEOPLE BUT THE WHOLE PROJECTEDTRUMP WON WITHIN 30 MINUTES BEFORE PEOPLE GOT IN THE CAUCUSROOM TO HAVE THIS DISCUSSION. IT'S INFURIATING.BUT I WOULD TO THE SIDE.

TRUMP WANTED TO MAKE ASTATEMENT TO DESANTIS AND HALEY BUT NEW HAMPSHIRE IS WHAT WILLCOME DOWN TO. LISA: CAN WE TAKE 100,000 PEOPLE ANDJUDGE THIS THING? IT WAS SO COLD OUTSIDE THATNOBODY WANTED TO GO. THEY DON'T HAVE TO COUNT THEM,ITS INEVITABILITY AND I THINK IT STRIKES ME, THE SHOCK OF THEINEVITABILITY INTERNATIONALLY AND THAT'S WHAT WE HAVE HEARDHERE IN DAVOS. ANNMARIE: THIS IS GOING TO BE AN ELECTIONOF TWO INCUMBENTS. TRUMP IS AN INCUMBENT RUNNINGIN A PRIMARY WERE PEOPLE.

CHASING HIM BUT HE'S ANINCUMBENT PRESIDENT AND WANTS THAT SPOT BACK. JONATHAN:ASK SOMEONE ON THE RECORD ABOUT THE FORMER PRESIDENT BECOMINGTHE PRESENT AGAIN, NO ONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT IT.I UNDERSTAND WHY AT A FORUM LIKE THIS. IF YOU BELIEVE INMULTILATERALISM COME I UNDERSTAND WHERE YOU MIGHT BEFEARFUL ABOUT THE FORMER PRESIDENT GETTING BACK INCONTROL OF THE WHITE HOUSE. I THINK THAT'S AN IMPORTANTTOPIC WHERE WE NEED TO PUSH THIS — PUSH THE POLICYMAKERSUNDER IT WHAT WILL YOUR DO AND.

WHY IS IT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ONWHAT IS HAPPENING IN AMERICA AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THEELECTIONS OF THIS YEAR? ANNMARIE:EVEN WHEN IT'S ON THEIR DOORSTEP, YOU LOOK AT EUROPEOUTSOURCING DEFENSE FROM THE UNITED STATES.YOU SAW COUNTRIES UNABLE TO REACH THE 2% TARGET.I JUST SAW SECRETARY OF STATE AND JAMIE DIMON SITTING DOWNWITH PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY. HE'S HERE TO GET THE AMMUNITIONAND THAT AID TO UKRAINE. AT THE MOMENT IT HAS STALLEDNOT JUST IN WASHINGTON BUT ALSO.

STALLED IN BRUSSELS. JONATHAN: I BELIEVE THERE IS A MEETINGWITH PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY LATER THIS WEEK.THERE IS PLENTY OF COVERAGE OF FINANCIAL SERVICES THE WEEK INDAVOS. LET'S TURN TO THE PRICE ACTIONON THE S&P 500, BIG EARNINGS FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND MORGANSTANLEY. IT'S LOWER BY A THIRD OF 1%.LISA: PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO GAME OUTWHAT THEY DON'T KNOW. WHAT WE WILL GET TODAY IS SOMEOF THE CEOS AND EXECUTIVES.

SHAPING THOSE DECISIONS. WE HAD THE CEO OF NASDAQ ANDBUT COMING UP RIGHT NOW, I'M CURIOUS TO HEAR ABOUT THE ROADAHEAD. JONATHAN: HOWARD, GOOD AFTERNOON.IT'S GOOD TO SEE YOU. WE WERE TALKING ABOUTRESILIENCE IN THE U.S. ECONOMY AND U.S.FINANCIAL MARKETS. WE TYPICALLY TALK ABOUT RISKAND VULNERABILITIES. CAN WE START WITH RESILIENCEBEFORE WE START WITH RISK? ARE YOU IMPRESSED WITH HOWRESILIENT THE ECONOMY IS?.

>> THE ECONOMY IS HANGING TOUGHAND — AND INFLATION IS NOT GOING AWAY.PEOPLE THINK INTEREST RATES AT ZERO OR NORMAL.YOU KNOW THAT'S A MANUFACTURED NONSENSE.STEADY EDDIE IS MY VIEW. THE MARKET IS NOT CALLING FOR175 BASIS POINT CUT BY THE FED. REALLY? NO WAY. NO WAY AT ALL. THAT IS NONSENSE.IF THEY GET IT WRONG, THEY WILL GET IT WRONG BY STAYING HIGHERFOR LONGER. I THINK THAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.LISA:.

IF THEY STAY WHERE THEY ARE AT5% RIGHT NOW, DO YOU SEE CAPITAL MARKETS ACTIVITY COMINGBACK BECAUSE OF THE STABILITY? >> STABILITY IS FINE.5% IS LIKE A NORMAL RATE. WE HAVE A $34 TRILLION DEFICIT,SHOULD WE BE A 2%? OF COURSE NOT.5% SOUNDS REASONABLE AND I THINK THE WORLD CAN DEAL WITHIT. INFLATION IS STILL TOO HIGH ANDIT'S COMING DOWN. IT'S COMING DOWN BUT IT'S NOTDONE. YOU GO TO THE SUPERMARKET ANDYOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING ME,.

INFLATION IS NOT IN THEREARVIEW MIRROR AND THEREFORE, WE ARE GOING TO STAY HIGHER FORLONGER. IT'S GOING TO BE HERE AND MAYBEA LITTLE LOWER TO SHOW OFF BUT 175 BASIS POINTS, THAT I THINKIS ACTUALLY FUNNY. LISA: THAT'S WHAT WE HEARD FROM KENTROGOFF AS WELL THAT IT SEEMS LIKE A PIPE DREAM. GIVEN THAT BACKDROP OF THE SOFTLANDING AND NO FED RATE CUTS ARE FEW OF THEM, CAN YOU GIVE AQUANTITY OR SOME SORT OF QUALIFICATION OF HELM MUCHIPO'S, M&A, HIGH YIELD DEBT.

ISSUANCE CAN PICK UP IN ANENVIRONMENT LIKE THAT? >> FOR THE BANKS, TRADINGMARKETS ARE BACK. ZERO INTEREST RATES WERE BORING.WE OWNED THE LARGEST MOST SUCCESSFUL HOME SALE MARKET.STOCK WAS UP LAST YEAR AND IS ONLY TRADING SEVEN POINT FIVETIMES EARNINGS. BGC IS DOING WELL SO THE BANKSWILL TRADE WELL. THEY WILL HAVE REALLY GOODNUMBERS ALL YEAR LONG BECAUSE NOW THERE IS REASONS TO TRADE.WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE ZERO, BRING A PILLOW WITH YOU, IT'SBORING.

NOW WE CAN SELL A AND BUY B.FINANCIAL SERVICES WILL DO WELL AND WE SHOULD TALK ABOUT CRYPTOAS WELL BEFORE WE FINISH. JONATHAN:WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO SAY? >> REMEMBER WHEN GOLD ETFSTARTED. THEY WERE EXCITING INTO THOUSAND FOUR AND IT STAYEDSTEADY. THERE WAS THIS HYPE THAT EVERYONE WOULD BUY GOLD.BITCOIN RAN UP AND IT HAS BEEN STEADY.IT WILL START TO RALLY AND GROW. THERE A COMPANY I LIKE CALLEDTETHER WHICH IS A STABLECOIN. I MANAGE MANY OF THEIR ASSETS.THE TETHER HOLDINGS IS THE NAME.

OF THE GROUP AND FROM WHATWE'VE SEEN AND WE DID A LOT OF WORK, THEY HAVE THE MONEY THEYSAY THEY HAVE. THEY SAID THEY HAD $86 BILLIONOF ASSETS AND $83 BILLION OF LIABILITIES.I'VE SEEN A WHOLE LOT AND THEY HAVE THE MONEY.THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN TALK IF THEY HAVE IT OR NOT. JONATHAN:SO SPOT BITCOIN ETF, WILL THAT RESTORE CONFIDENCE? >> NO.THAT'S JUST A WAY FOR AMERICANS.

TO BUY. WHY ARE AMERICANS HAVINGANYTHING TO DO WITH BITCOIN ANYWAY?WHY DO THEY HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH STABLECOIN?IT'S NOT AN AMERICAN THING. THIS IS AMERICANS BUYING TESLASTOCK. THIS IS A SPECULATIVE ASSET FORUS BUT FOR COUNTRIES LIKE ARGENTINA OR VENEZUELA ORTURKEY, THESE CRYPTO ASSETS MATTER. IT'S A WAY TO HOLD ONTO THEDOLLAR. TETHER STABLECOIN IN ARGENTINAAND VENEZUELA AND TURKEY,.

IMAGINE YOU ARE IN TURKEY.YOU DON'T WANT TO HOLD THE TURKISH LIRA.IT WILL GO DOWN 50% THIS YEAR SO YOU WANT TO HOLD THE DOLLARAND HOLD IT IN A TOKEN. HOLDING YOUR DOLLAR IN THETOKEN IS AMAZING. THAT'S WHY TETHER IS DOING WELL.THEY HAVE $95 BILLION IN ISSUANCE. LISA:I KNOW YOU CALLED THE CME GROUP THE EXTRAORDINARY MONOPOLY INAMERICA AND HAVE TRIED TO FIGURE OUT WAYS TO COMPETE MOREDIRECTLY. HOW DO YOU PLAN TO TAKE THEM ONTHIS YEAR?.

>> IT'S COMING. IT'S CALLEDFMX. WE ARE EXTRAORDINARY IN THEMARKETS FOR TREASURIES WHO HAVE AN ELECTRONIC MARKET PLACE FORU.S. TREASURIES. IT'S BEEN GROWING 2%SEQUENTIALLY EACH QUARTER. LAST QUARTER WAS 25 SO WE WILLPROBABLY HIT 27 THIS ORDER. SEQUENTIALLY QUARTER BYQUARTER, WE WILL PARTNER WITH ALL THE MAJOR BANKS, THEY WILLBE PARTNERS WITH US BECAUSE THEY WANT TO CREATE ACOMPETITOR TO THAT AWESOME CME TO KEEP SOMEONE HONEST WITH ALITTLE COMPETITION.

WE EXPECT TO GET CFTC FULLAPPROVAL WE WILL ANNOUNCE OUR PARTNERS AND BANKS AS TO WHO ISIN. WE WILL ROLL OUT A COMPETITORTO THE CME IN 2024. LISA:GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK ON WITH ANOTHER PITCH.YOU SAID FIXED INCOME TRADING. HIS BEEN MAYBE A LITTLE TOOEXCITING WITH RESULTS COMING IN FROM SOME OF THE BANKS A LITTLELIGHTER THAN PEOPLE HAD EXPECTED.WHAT IS OPTIMAL IN TERMS OF YIELD SWINGS AND WHAT'S GOODAND BAD FOR TRADERS?.

>> TRADERS LIKE VOLATILITY,THEY LIKE MOVEMENT. IT WILL NOT A WAS GO THEIR WAYBUT THEY ARE IN THE GAME OF MAKING TRANSACTIONS WITH THEIRCLIENTS AND IF INTEREST RATES WERE ZERO THIS YEAR AND NEXTYEAR AND THE YEAR AFTER, IT'S KIND OF BORING.THIS MARKET IS EXCELLENT WHETHER IT GOES UP, IT WILL NOTGO UP ANYMORE. INTEREST RATES ARE NOT GOING UPIT WOULD BE HORRIFIC AREA HOW MUCH ARE THEY COMING DOWN ANDTHE ANSWER IS A LITTLE BIT, LESS THAN PEOPLE THINK AND ITHINK YOU WILL SEE THE BANKS DO.

EXTREMELY WELL THROUGH THIS,2024 WILL BE WONDERFUL. THE JP MORGAN RESULTS WEREGREAT BUT CITIBANK IS ON THE BACK END OF THINGS.I THINK YOU WILL SEE THE BANKS DO REALLY WELL.THEY WILL BE A WONDERFUL PERFORMING ASSET THIS YEAR.JONATHAN: WE HAVE TO DO MORE MORNINGBREAKFAST MEETINGS WITH YOU. RATE ENERGY. >> GREAT TO SEE YOU. JONATHAN: WHERE DO YOU WANT TO START WITHTHAT ONE?.

LET'S START WITH RATE CUTS THATARE PRICED IN WHICH ARE LAUGHABLE. LISA:THAT'S WHAT EVERYONE IS SAYING AND YET THE MARKET IS PRICINGAN INSANE WE ARE NOT BUYING IT AND WE ARE STILL DOING THIS.WHO IS BUYING IT? CAN THERE BE A SOFT LANDING INTHIS TYPE OF RATE CUTTING FORECAST? RIGHT NOW, THAT IS THEDISSONANCE. OPTIMISTIC PEOPLE ARE SAYINGTHIS IS A PIPE DREAM THAT WE WILL GET THESE CUTS. JONATHAN: COMING UP LATER THIS HOUR, THECONVERSATION WILL CONTINUE FROM.

DAVOS, SWITZERLAND. WE WILL CATCH UP WITH ADINAFRIEDMAN, THE NASDAQ CEO. ON THE S&P 500, EQUITY FUTURESARE PULLING BACK BY ONE THIRD OF 1% AND YIELDS ARE HIGHER BYSIX BASIS POINTS. FROM DAVOS, SWITZERLAND, THISIS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> IT'S NOT GOING TO BE ASGOOD AS 2023 BUT IT WON'T BE BAD.INFLATION WILL COME DOWN, SOFT LANDING, SIX RATE CUTS, THAT'SA PIPE DREAM IF WE HAVE A SOFT.

LANDING.WE WILL HAVE TWO OR THREE. JONATHAN:THAT WAS KEN ROGOFF EARLIER IN THE PROGRAM SAYING IT WAS APIPE DREAM TO HAVE A SOFT LANDING AND THE SIX RATE THAT'SPRICED BY THIS MARKET. HE IS NOT ALONE. HOWARD SAID IT WAS LAUGHABLEWHAT'S PRICED INTO FINANCIAL MARKETS.PEOPLE ARE NOT LISTENING. THEY ARE SAYING WHAT WE SEE ISCOMMENSURATE WITH THIS TYPE OF RATE CUTTING CYCLE.WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A SOFT.

LANDING AND THIS IS WHAT THEPRESIDENT WANTS. CAN YOU HAVE THE GOLDILOCKSSCENARIO IF YOU HAVE RATES STAYING WHERE THEY ARE?THAT'S THE TENSION RIGHT NOW. JONATHAN:LET'S TALK ABOUT THE TENSION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS. EQUITY FUTURES — EARNINGS INTHE REARVIEW MIRROR FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND MORGANSTANLEY. FUTURES ARE NEGATIVE BY 0.4%.YIELDS ARE UP BY ABOUT SIX BASIS POINTS.THE COVERAGE OF FINANCIAL.

SERVICES CONTINUES. JOINING US ON SET IN DAVOS ISTHE CEO OFNIVIK. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE FUTURE OFINVESTING. I DON'T THINK ENOUGH PEOPLEREALIZE YOU ARE THE NUMBER ONE INVESTOR IN FARMLAND WORLDWIDE. >> NATURAL RESOURCES IN GENERALBUT FARMLAND, WE ARE BY FAR THE LARGEST INVESTOR IN ITSCONVICTION WE BUILT OVER 10 YEARS AGO.TODAY, WE ARE APPROXIMATELY $20 BILLION IN THAT SPACE.THERE IS ONE BUILT FOR TODAY'S.

TIMES. YOU MAY WANT LESS VOLATILITY INYOUR PORTFOLIO AND YOU MAY WANT MORE YIELD AND HERE WE ARETODAY, PEOPLE COME TO US. JONATHAN:THINGS HAVE CHANGED A LOT IN THE 60-40.CAN YOU HELP ME UNDERSTAND WHAT THE FUTURE OF INVESTING LOOKSLIKE? THERE WAS A FANTASTIC PIECE INTHE FINANCIAL TIMES. IT WAS FORECAST THAT ULTIMATELYINVESTING AND INVESTOR FLOWS WOULD POLARIZE INTO THISULTIMATE BARBELL WITH ONE SIDE,.

SUPER PASSIVE EXCHANGE TRADEDFUNDS, CHEAP, CONVENIENT ACCESS TO BENCHMARK RETURNS AND ON THEOTHER SIDE FLOWS INTO SPECIALIZED MANAGERS, PRIVATEMARKETS ETC. HAVE WE ARRIVED? IS THAT PROCESS CHANGING? >> IT'S ALWAYS CHANGING BUT ITHINK THAT'S BEEN GOING ON FOR A WHILE.IT MADE SENSE AT THE TIME. WE THREE OR FOUR YEARS AGO, WESAID PEOPLE UNDERSTOOD STUFF ACADEMICALLY.YOU WILL HAVE MORE VOLATILITY GOING FORWARD.RETURNS WILL BE LOWER IN THE.

NEXT DECADE AND INFLATION MAYSHOW UP SO ARE YOU PROTECTED AND YIELDS WILL BE IMPORTANT.PEOPLE UNDERSTOOD THE ACADEMICS OF IT BUT IT WASN'T AN URGENCY.YOU CAN GO OUT AND INVEST PASSIVELY. I LOOK TO THESE OPPORTUNISTICEXPOSURES BUT TODAY, THAT WAS MORE OF AN URGENCY.YOU ARE SEEING MORE CREATIVITY AROUND SOLUTIONS, PRODUCTS ANDINNOVATION TO TRY TO GET MAINSTREAM INVESTORS MOREACCESS TO ALTERNATIVES TO BE MORE DIVERSIFIED. LISA:WHAT IS THE CATCH WITH.

FINANCIAL CREATIVITY?SOME PEOPLE ARE SAYING WHEN WILL BC IF UNDERWRITINGSTANDARDS ARE GOING DOWN OR THERE ARE PITFALLS WITHIN THEFIVE IT MARKETS THAT ARE LESS TRANSPARENT? >> THE CATCH IS LIQUIDITY.PEOPLE GET THEIR CAPITAL LOCKED UP VERSUS GETTING IT CHEAPLY INA LIQUID WAY THAN AN ETF WHICH IS STILL A VERY VIABLE VEHICLE.YET WHAT IS THE VALUABLE OR PREMIUM PUT ON LIQUIDITY VERSUS10 YEARS AGO AND TODAY? THE ADDITIONAL RETURN YOU GETFOR TAKING ILLIQUIDITY IS VERY.

VALUABLE.THAT'S BEEN THE CATCH BUT THE PERCEPTION OF THE RISK BEHINDLIQUIDITY HAS CHANGED AS WELL. LISA:WE THINK ABOUT STICKY MONEY AND WE SAW THAT REAL ESTATE CRISISIN THE U.K. WITHIN THE PAST TWO YEARS OR SOWITH RESPECT TO OUTFLOWS AND WHAT HAPPENED.WE HAVEN'T REALLY SEEN THE FORCED SELLING OF SOME OF THESEFUNDS THAT CATER TO INDIVIDUALS. ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT THAT THATWE WILL SEE THE PRESSURE OF LOSSES WE HAVEN'T SEEN INPRIVATE MARKETS?.

>> I DON'T BECAUSE WHAT YOU'VESEEN IS THE SOPHISTICATION OF INVESTING IN PRIVATE MARKETSAND WHO IS INVESTED. IT'S VERY WELL-BALANCED.PEOPLE LOVE TALKING ABOUT REAL ESTATE AND ITS AROUND THE ISSUEYOU SEE. 3% OF THE REIT EXPOSURE ISOFFICES. THINGS LIKE LIFE-SCIENCES,STORAGE, LOGISTICS, THEY ARE DOING FINE. PEOPLE ARE MORE DIVERSIFIEDTHAN YOU WOULD THANK AND LIQUIDITY WILL BE FELT OR THELACK OF LIQUIDITY WILL BE FELT.

DIFFERENTLY. JONATHAN:HAVE WE REALLY PAID THE PRICE FOR TAKING INTEREST RATES TO5.5% FROM ZERO? >> I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TOTHAT. WE'VE BEEN IN THE CAMP OF ASOFT LANDING GOING INTO 2024. I THINK THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELYTHE CASE MORE AND MORE. THE IDEA OF THE FED TAKING UPPOINTS THIS MUCH IS UNHEARD OF BUT WE ARE IN DIFFERENT TIMES.ON THE BELIEVER THAT WE ARE GOING INTO A SOFT LANDING.I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF CASH ON THE SIDELINES TODAY THATEVEN AT THESE RATES WILL HIM.

BACK INTO THE SYSTEM AS WELL.THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE PRESENT THERE FOR THE REST OF MY CAREER.WHETHER IT'S A GEOPOLITICAL ISSUE OR WHETHER IT'S A POLICYMISTAKE, THE RISK OF THIS THING GOING THE WRONG WAY IS THEREAND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THERE IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.JONATHAN: YOU CUT THE END OF THE PANEL IHAD ON PRIVATE MARKETS AND I TRIED TO TALK ABOUT POLITICS.HOW ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT THE ELECTIONS IN 2024? >> I TAKE LESSONS FROM THEPREVIOUS ELECTION.

I'VE BEEN THROUGH MANYDIFFERENT CYCLES ON THE TRUMP ELECTION, THE FIRST TIME AROUND.WE ALL LOOKED AROUND AND THOUGHT ABOUT PUTTING IN HEDGESAND WHAT WE WOULD DO DIFFERENTLY.I CAN CONTROL ELECTIONS FOR THE MARKETS BUT WE CAN CONTROL THEFUNDAMENTALS AND HOW WE PICK GOOD MANAGEMENT TEAMS IN GOODCOMPANY SO I'VE LEARNED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THAT NOISE AND FOCUSON THE FUNDAMENTALS OF WHAT WE DO WELL AND ANTICIPATEVOLATILITY. LISA: I HAVE TO BRING UP CHINA.

XI JIN PING'S COALITION TODAVOS HASN'T BEEN SINCE 2016. >> I'VE BEEN A BIG PART OF THEGLOBAL ECONOMY FOR SOME TIME AND IF YOU ARE NOT OPEN TOGLOBAL INVESTMENTS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY LIKESWITZERLAND OR GERMANY BUT THEY ARE STILL AN IMPORTANT PART OFTHE GLOBALIZED ECONOMY. PEOPLE TALK ABOUT GLOBALIZATIONAND WE ARE GOING THE OPPOSITE WAY. WE ARE NOT BUT THE PENDULUMSWUNG A LITTLE TOO FAR. IT TAKES DECADES TO CHANGETHINGS. I STILL THINK CHINA WILL BE ABIG PART OF THE EQUATION ALBEIT.

PEOPLE HAVE LEARNED SOMELESSONS AND WILL BE MORE CAREFUL IN TERMS OF HOW THEYINTERACT OR MAKE INVESTMENTS AROUND THAT.WE STARTED A POLICY SOME YEARS BACK OF GOING ALONG WITH CHINAAND DO IT IN PLACES LIKE AUSTRALIA.YOU CAN DO THAT FOR SOME TIME BUT I THINK THE WORLD WILLCONTINUE GLOBALIZING. JONATHAN: THIS HAS BEEN GREAT, THANK YOU.PLENTY TO THINK ABOUT. PARTICULARLY ON THE ELECTIONSIN 2024, THE FUTURE OF POLITICS, I FIND IT AMAZING WESIT HERE AND YOU LISTEN TO THE.

WESTERN INVESTOR CASUALLY TALKSABOUT CHINA BEING ON INVESTABLE. THEN WE JUST MOVE ON STRAIGHTAFTERWARDS AND WE DON'T DIG DEEPER.IT'S STUNNING WE ARE LOOK AT THE WORLD'S SECOND-LARGESTECONOMY IN THEIR GROUP OF VERY LARGE INVESTORS PARTICULARLY INTHE UNITED STATES WHO HAVE DECIDED THAT CHINA'S CAPITALMARKETS IS UN INVESTABLE. LISA: IT'S STUNNING EXCEPT WHENPEOPLE HAVE BEEN BURNED FOR LONG ENOUGH, THEY DON'T WANT TOGET BURNED AGAIN. IF YOU ARE A VERY LARGEORGANIZATION COME YOU CANNOT.

SIMPLY AVOID THE WORLD'SSECOND-BIGGEST ECONOMY AND THAT'S THE STRUGGLE.IT'S NOT UN INVESTABLE BUT HOW DO YOU INVEST. JONATHAN:YOU NOT COME TO GET THE POLICY CERTAINTY YOU WANT AT THISPOINT. THE PUSHBACK IS BEEN PRETTYAGGRESSIVE SO FAR THIS MORNING. LISA:YOU CAN'T HAVE YOUR CAKE AND EAT IT TOO.YOU EITHER HAVE A SOFT LANDING AND NOT MANY RATE THAT'S OR AHARD LANDING AND A WHOLE HOST OF RATE CUTS THAT ARE MORE THANWHAT WE ARE SEEING PRICED INTO.

THE MARKET.THEY THINK YOU GET ONE OR THE OTHER AND PEOPLE ARE NOTGRAPPLING WITH THAT PROPERLY. JONATHAN: THE DOT PLOT HAS TO BERECONCILED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER THROUGH THIS YEAR.COMING UP, WE WILL CATCH UP WITH ADENA FRIEDMAN OF NASDAQ.YOUR EQUITY MARKET IS SLIGHTLY SOFTER. ♪ JONATHAN:THERE IS ECONOMIC DATA JUST AROUND THE CORNER.LIVE FROM DAVOS, SWITZERLAND AT THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM, I AMJONATHAN FERRO.

EQUITY FUTURES ON THE S&P 500LOOK DOWN BY ZERO .4% ON THE S&P 500. SMALL CAPS ARE A LITTLE SOFTER,DOWN BY 0.8. LET'S GET TO MICHAEL MCKEE.MIKE: IT'S TERTIARY DATA BUT IT'SWHAT WE GOT TO DAY. THERE IS A BIG DROP.THE EMPIRE MANUFACTORY SERVER VERY JUST SURVEY COVERING NEWYORK MAINLY WENT DOWN, NEW ORDERS FALL TO NEGATIVE 49.4.THOSE OF THE WORST NUMBERS SINCE MAY OF 2020 WHICH WAS INTHE TEETH OF THE PANDEMIC, THE.

WORST NUMBERS ANYBODY HADGOTTEN. PRICES PAID GO UP, 23.2 ANDEMPLOYMENT DROPS -6.9 PERCENT FROM -8.4.YOU LOOK AT THE HEADLINE NUMBERS AND IT SAYS CUT RATESSOONER AND IT SAYS NOT SO FAST BUT THEY ARE BIG NUMBERS IN ANYCASE. JONATHAN: HOW UNUSUAL IS IT TO SEE THOSESWINGS IN THOSE NUMBERS? MIKE: WE'VE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING OFTHIS MAGNITUDE. IS IT BECAUSE OF THE WEATHER ORWINTER? IS THIS AN OUTLIER OR NOT?WE WILL SEE WHEN WE GET THE.

ADDITIONAL NUMBERS LIKE THEPHILLY FED COMING UP LATER THIS WEEK. LISA: ARE WE SEEING ANY PATTERNS INTERMS OF DETERIORATION OR NEGATIVE SO PRIZES AND SOME OFTHE ECONOMIC DATA IS MORE REAL TIME SINCE THIS IS THE FIRSTREAD ON JANUARY? MIKE: WE REALLY HAVEN'T YET.THE NUMBERS WE GET TOMORROW SHOULD BE INTERESTING BECAUSEWE WILL GET THE RETAIL SALES FIGURES OF INDUSTRIALPRODUCTION AND THAT WILL GIVE US AN IDEA OF HOW BOTH SIDES OFTHE ECONOMY ARE GOING AT THIS.

POINT.WE WILL SEE IF THERE'S ANY REAL DROP-OFF OR NOT AREA JONATHAN:MICHAEL MCKEE, THANK YOU FOR THE LATEST DATA WHICH WASPRETTY DREADFUL. LISA: DID WISHED SHOCKINGLY DREADFUL.YOU ARE SEEING A BIT OF A REACTION IN MARKETS BUT YOUWONDER IF IT'S COLD AND PEOPLE DIDN'T GO OUT?IT COULD'VE BEEN A STRIKE STRYKER THIS PARTICULAR THING.YOU CAN'T REALLY GET TO JAZZ WITH ONE NUMBER. JONATHAN:WHAT WAS THE NORTHSTAR OF LAST YEAR, JOBLESS CLAIMS? LISA:WAS IT JOLTS OR SOME OF THE.

OTHERS? JONATHAN: MORE JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA COMINGTHIS THURSDAY. ON THE S&P 500, EQUITY FUTURESARE NEGATIVE BUT 0.35%, THE NASDAQ DOWN BY 0.4.YIELDS ARE HIGHER ON THE BOND MARKET. WE HAVE KIND OF BEEN HERE FOR AMONTH, IN AND AROUND FOUR PERCENT ON THE 10 YEAR. LISA:THE TENSION BETWEEN THE BUYERS AND SELLERS IN THE BOND MARKET,THE IDEA OF A SOFT LANDING AND YOU GET HIGHER RATES ARE YOUGET A HARD LANDING AND YOU GET.

LOWER RATE AND PEOPLE AREN'TWILLING TO RESOLVE THAT AND I THINK THAT'S THE TENSION THAT'SWITH US FOR NOW. JONATHAN: THE EURO AGAINST THE DOLLAR,WHERE IS IT? LISA: PROBABLY $1.08. JONATHAN:EXCITING STUFF. LISA: IT DOESN'T REFLECT ANY MAJORDIVERSION. YOU WILL HEAR FROM CHRISTINELAGARDE A LOT THIS WEEK BUT I WONDER IF HER TONE HAS SWITCHED.SHE HAD A DIFFERENT TONE THAN JEROME POWELL. LISA:A LOT OF THE ECB HAWKS SAY THEY WILL TEST SAY THERE WILL BE NORATE CUTS. JONATHAN:.

WE'VE HEARD THAT THIS MORNINGON THE FEDERAL RESERVE. LET'S CONTINUE THE CONVERSATIONWITH ADENA FRIEDMAN FROM THE NASDAQ, GOOD AFTERNOON. LET'S TALK ABOUT THETRANSFORMATION OF YOUR BUSINESS, A LOT OF WORK HASBEEN DONE AND A LOT OF OUR AUDIENCE TYPICALLY THINK OF YOUAS LISTINGS IN EXCHANGE. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT YOU AREABOUT TO BECOME. >> OUR MARKETS ARE THEFOUNDATION THEY ALWAYS WILL BE. THEY ARE INCREDIBLE PART OF OURBUSINESS BUT WHAT WE BEEN ABLE.

TO DO IS EXPAND OURRELATIONSHIPS WITH THEIR CLIENTS ACROSS LIQUIDITY.HOW DO WE BRING LIQUIDITY TO MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD TOMAKE SURE LIQUIDITY IS GREATER? HOW DO WE HELP OUR CLIENTSMANAGE RISK SO THEY CAN BRING MORE TO MARKETS.TRANSPARENCY IN TERMS OF HELPING INVESTORS MANAGE THEIRINVESTMENT STRATEGIES AND INTEGRITY AND THAT'S WHERE WEHAVE OUR ANTI-FINANCIAL CRIME SUITE SO WE CAN HELP THE BANKSAND BROKERS MANAGE THE INTEGRITY WITHIN THE FINANCIALSYSTEM.

WE'VE GONE ALL IN ACROSS THOSETHREE PILLARS INCLUDING OUR POSITION LAST YEAR BUT WE BEENON THIS JOURNEY FOR ABOUT SEVEN YEARS. LISA:YOU TOOK OVER IN 2017 AND YOU'VE HAD ABOUT A DOZENACQUISITIONS SINCE THEN. IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, WHATPROPORTION OF YOUR BUSINESS WILL BE ON THE LISTINGS SIDEAND WHAT PROPORTION WILL COME FROM SOME OF THE OTHER FINTECHASPECTS YOU'VE ACQUIRED AND BUILD OUT? >> WE LOOK AT IT IN TERMS OFTHE TRADING BUSINESS AND THAT'S.

BETWEEN 20 AND 25% OF OURBUSINESS TODAY AND THEN WE HAVE OUR SOLUTIONS BUSINESSES WHICHIS DATA AND ANALYTICS AND SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS AND THAT'S70-75% OF HER BUSINESS TODAY. WE ARE PLEASED WE HAVE ACOMPLETE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS WE OFFER CORPORATE'S AND INVESTORSAND BANKS AND OTHER EXCHANGES THAT HELP THEM NAVIGATE THECOMPLEXITY THE CAPITAL MARKETS AND THE BANKING SYSTEM HAVEINTRODUCED. LISA: I'VE BEEN STRUCK BY HOW MUCHDISCUSSION THERE IS AROUND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND HOWPEOPLE ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT.

WHAT TO MAKE OF IT. THE IMF SAID ONE OF THE BIGCONCERNS IS FINANCIAL STABILITY. THEY ARE CONCERNED THAT PEOPLEARE NOT MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ADAPT TO THE FINANCIALSYSTEM TO HOW QUICKLY SOME OF THESE SYSTEMATIC LEARNINGSYSTEMS CAN CATCH UP. IS THAT ENTERING INTO YOURCALCULUS? >> I THINK THE FINANCIALINDUSTRY IN MANY RESPECTS IS ON THE FOREFRONT OF A LOT OFTECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION BUT IT HAS A LOT OF REGULATION THATUNDERPINS THIS SO IT HAS TO.

MOVE WITH THE SPEED OFREGULATION IN SOME CASES. WE TRY TO BRING AS MUCHINNOVATION AS WE CAN TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT HELP MANAGE THEREGULATORY ENVIRONMENT. HOW DO WE BRING AI INTO THETOOLS THAT CAN BE BROUGHT INTO MARCUS TO HAVE A BETTEREXPERIENCE IN THE MARKETS? WE HAVE OUR FIRST AI DRIVENORDER TYPE COMING INTO THE MARKET THIS QUARTER. HOW DO WE HELP THEM AS A MOREADVANCED TECHNOLOGY PROVIDER SO THEY CAN ADAPT MORE UGLY TO THERISKS HAPPENING AROUND THEM?.

JONATHAN:HELP ME UNDERSTAND HOW WE COULD CONFRONT A NEW ERA OFMISINFORMATION. IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE VERY CLOSETO PRODUCING A VERY LIFELIKE VIDEO OF YOU RELEASING YOUREARNINGS A DAY AHEAD OF TIME AND PEOPLE BELIEVE IT.HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO THAT MOMENT AND HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU? >> AI BRINGS OPPORTUNITY ANDRISK AND THAT IS A MAJOR RISK OF THINKING ABOUT THEREGULATORY ENVIRONMENT ON THE USE OF AI AND TRADING DECISIONSAND INVESTING DECISIONS IS AN.

AREA WE ARE FOCUSED ON,PROTECTING AGAINST WHAT WE CALL DEEPFAKES THAT COULD PROVIDEMISINFORMATION TO INVESTORS. WE HAVE SOME BLUNT INSTRUMENTSTHAT PROTECT THE INVESTORS TODAY BUT WHAT YOU WANT TO DOIS PREVENT THAT TYPE OF DEEPFAKE FROM FILTERING INTOFINANCIAL DECISIONS. WE ARE STILL WORKING ON THEANSWER TO THAT. THERE IS A REGULATORY FRAMEWORKBUT IT'S MORE OF A TECHNICAL RUSSIAN OF HOW YOU VALIDATE THEVIDEOS. YOU COULD USE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY TO DO THAT SO HOW DOYOU CREATE MOST A VALIDATION.

MECHANISM?I THINK MEDIA HAS A BIG ROLE TO PLAY DOWN THE — TO PLAY ONTHAT. JONATHAN: THERE WAS A BASIC PACK WE SOWITH THE SEC ACCOUNT ON TWITTER A WEEK OR SO AGO. LISA:IT'S IRONIC CONSIDERING THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO REGULATED ANDTHEY CAME OUT AND THEY SAID THEY APPROVED A BITCOIN ETF.JONATHAN: HAVE YOU SEEN MORE OF THATRECENTLY? >> NOT MORE THAN WHAT YOU'VESEEN. WHATEVER HAS HAPPENED HAS GOINGOUT TO THE MEDIA AREA THAT.

WOULD BE ONE OF THE FEWEXAMPLES WE HAVE SEEN SO NOT YET. YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT SECURITY EVERY MINUTE OF EVERYDAY AND IT'S NOT JUST THE RESPONSIBILITY TO MANAGESECURITY IN YOUR BUSINESS, IT'S EVERYBODY'S RESPONSIBILITY.WE DO A TON OF EDUCATION AND THAT WAS A WAKE-UP CALL TOFOCUS ON AUTHENTICATION FOR YOUR ACCOUNTS.THERE IS A LOT OF SELF-HELP BUT THERE IS ALSO A COLLECTIVEACTION THAT'S NEEDED ACROSS COMPANIES TO MAKE SURE YOU AREMAINTAINING SECURITY.

THAT'S A HUGE AREA OF FOCUS FORUS. LISA: YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT INVESTINGIN TECHNOLOGY ON ONE SIDE AND PEOPLE THINK OF THE NASDAQINDEX IS SO DEPENDENT ON FEW OF THE MAJOR TECHNOLOGICALCOMPANIES. DOESN'T MAKE THE MARKET MORE ORLESS FRAGILE TO HAVE A GREATER DOMINANCE OF A COUPLE OF KEYCOMPANIES? >> IN GENERAL, THE ECONOMY ISMOVING TOWARD HAVING SOME REALLY LEADING TECHNOLOGICALINSTITUTIONS THAT ARE DRIVING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROSPERITY.

THE INDICES TEND TO FOCUS ONWHERE THE ECONOMY IS GOING AND THEY ARE A REFLECTION ON THATAND HOW WAS MARKET CAP EVOLVING TOWARD THE LARGER TECHNOLOGYCOMPANIES. WE ARE IN A GLOBAL COMPETITIVESITUATION. YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS IN THECONTEXT OF MAINTAINING THE U.S. IS A GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICALPOWERHOUSE AND ENABLING BUSINESSES TO GROW AND EXPANDINNOVATE AND MAKING SURE THE INNOVATION ECOSYSTEM REMAINSUPER ROBUST. NEW COMPANIES ARE ALWAYS COMING INTO CHALLENGETHEM AND ALLOWING FOR EVERY.

COMPANY TO HAVE LIQUIDITY WITHSTRONG INVESTOR PROTECTION. THAT'S KIND OF WHAT WE FOCUS ONBUT I THINK WHAT YOU SEE IN THE INDEX IS A REFLECTION OF THEECONOMY. LISA: WE'VE SEEN A REAL DROP-OFF INIPO'S. PEOPLE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUTINTEREST RATES COMING DOWN BEFORE THEY CAN INVEST IN THOSE.IS THAT A REALITY THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE MORE HE BUST ORARE COMPANIES REALIZING IS BETTER FOR THEM TO FINANCETHEMSELVES IN PRIVATE MARKETS AND DO IT THAT WAY INPERPETUITY?.

>> WE HAVE ABOUT 85 COMPANIESTHAT HAVE FILED PUBLICLY ON THE NASDAQ SO THAT MEANS THEY AREREADY. THEY ARE READY FOR THE MARKETSTO BE OPEN. IT'S REALLY ALL ABOUT THEINVESTOR. ARE THE INVESTORS READY TO PUTRISK CAPITAL TO WORK AND INVESTORS PREDICT THE FUTURE SOIF THEY BELIEVE AND ARE CONFIDENT WE WON'T HAVE HIGHERRATES AND WE LIKELY WILL HAVE LOWER RATES OVER TIME, THANTHEY CAN UNDERWRITE THAT. THANK AND PUT THAT INTO THEIRMODEL AND THE BIG UNKNOWN IS.

MORE KNOWN AND INFLATION HASCOME DOWN SO THE COST OF DOING BUSINESS HAS COME DOWN.I THINK THAT GIVES THEM MORE CONFIDENCE TO UNDERWRITE RISKCAPITAL WHICH MEANS MORE IPO'S. THAT'S A LONG WAY OF SAYING IBELIEVE THERE IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE IPO'S THISYEAR. JONATHAN: ARE WE STRUGGLING TO INTERPRETTHE PRIVATE MARKET VALUATIONS THIS YEAR? >> I THINK PUBLIC AND PRIVATEMARKETS ARE ALWAYS CALCULATED DIFFERENTLY.

INVESTORS TAKE SMALL BITESEARLY ON IN THE VC BUSINESS TENDS TO MAKE 10 YEAR BED SOTHEY WILL HAVE A DIFFERENT VIEW OF VALUE THAN A PUBLIC INVESTOR.I THINK THE PRIVATE AND PUBLIC MARKETS WILL NEVER BE PERFECTLYSYNCHRONIZED. PRIVATE INVESTORS WILL BET ONTHE LONGER-TERM FUTURE SO THEY MIGHT BE ABLE TO WAIT LONGER TOGROW INTO THE VALUATION AND PUBLIC INVESTORS WANT TO HAVEMORE LIQUID OPTIONS. THEY LOOKED MORE TO WHAT THEVALUATION WILL LOOK LIKE IN FOUR YEARS BUT NOT 5-10.

JONATHAN:YOU MADE IT $10.5 BILLION BET. ARE WE HAPPY WHERE WE ARE NOW? >> WE ARE EXCITED AND WE CLOSETHE DEAL IN NOVEMBER AND WE ARE INTEGRATING AND THE TEAM ISINCREDIBLY ENERGIZED AND THE SOLUTIONS ARE AMAZING WE HAVECONVERSATION WITH THE BANKS, WE CAN NOW SOLVE THEIR MOSTCOMPLEX CHALLENGES. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES THEYFACE AS OPERATORS, WE ARE EXCITED TO BE THEIR PARTNER.JONATHAN: THANKS FOR CATCHING UP WITH US.THAT'S ON THE FUTURE.

REMODELING THE COMPANY FROM THECOMPANY WE ALL KNEW 10 YEARS AGO, EXCHANGES, LISTINGS ANDALL OF THAT TO SOMETHING DIFFERENT. LISA:TO A FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY COMPANY.WE WERE ASKING ABOUT THE IDEA OF MOVING TO HAVING A BITE OFINDEX FUNDS AND THEN SOMETHING ELSE AND HOW THE FINANCIALMARKET IS GETTING MORE COMPLICATED. IN TERMS OF PRIVATE MARKETS BUTALSO FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY SERVICES, IT'S AN INTERESTINGMOMENT FOR A LOT OF DIFFERENT.

FIRMS HOW TO ORCHESTRATE THAT.JONATHAN: BECAUSE OF THE CONCENTRATION,THERE IS A BELIEF THAT YOU HAVE TO GO ELSEWHERE FOROPPORTUNITIES FOR DIVERSIFICATION WHICH IS WHYYOU SEE THIS PUSH IN PRIVATE MARKETS. LISA:THAT RAISES A LOT OF QUESTIONS. JONATHAN:WE WILL ALSO HAVE QUESTIONS WITH PAT GELSAINGER.LIVE FROM DAVOS, GOOD AFTERNOON. ♪ >> 60% OF JOBS IN ADVANCEDECONOMIES OVER A FORESEEABLE.

FUTURE ARE GOING TO BE IMPACTEDBY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. IF YOU ARE LUCKY, ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE WILL ENHANCE YOUR PRODUCTIVITY, MAKE YOUR JOBMORE ENJOYABLE AND VERY LIKELY BETTER PAID.IF YOU ARE UNLUCKY >> IT'S AN UGLY ENVIRONMENT. JONATHAN:THE IMF MANAGING DIRECTOR THERE SITTING DOWN WITH BLOOMBERG'SLISA ABRAMOWICZ EARLIER TODAY. LISA: IT WAS INTERESTING.SHE HAD SOME WONDERFUL WORLDS ABOUT BLOOMBERG. JONATHAN:DID SHE? LISA: SHE WAS JOKING ABOUT HOWARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MADE IT.

SOUND LIKE BLOOMBERG ISTERRIBLE. SHE WAS JOKING AROUND. I THINK IT WAS INTERESTING TOHEAR WHAT SHE HAD TO SAY AND ABOUT WHAT CHRISTINE LAGARDEHAD SAID. THEY SET AMERICAN PEOPLE CAN DOWHATEVER THEY WANT BUT IF YOU LOOK AT POLICIES, THERE MIGHTBE SERIOUS CONCERNS. THAT WAS AN UNDERTONE AS PEOPLETRIED TO SIFT THROUGH THE UNCERTAINTY OF DONALD TRUMPBEING PRESIDENT. JONATHAN: WHAT ARE THOSE CONCERNS FOR THEINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND? LISA:I THINK THE MORE INWARD LOOKING.

TARIFFS AND THINGS OF THATNATURE, THE LESS GLOBALIZED VIEW OF THE WORLD. JONATHAN: HAVE THINGS CHANGED UNDER THISADMINISTRATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION?THE RHETORIC IS DIFFERENT BUT THE BEDSIDE MANNER IS EXPECTEDBUT HAS THE POLICY CHANGED? LISA:THEY'VE GOTTEN RID OF NATO. ARE WE STILL ON THIS TRAJECTORYOF NATIONALIST MEASURES. JONATHAN:I WANT TO TOUCH BASE WITH THE PRICE ACTION GOING INTO THEOPENING BELL.

EARNINGS FROM THE BID — BIGBANKS ARE BEHIND US NOW, GOLDMAN AND MORGAN STANLEY THISMORNING. WERE THERE ANY CHAKRAS? LISA:THE BIGGEST SHOCKER WAS HOWARD COMING ON AND SAYING IT'S GOINGTO BE A GREAT YEAR SO IGNORE THE NOISE. JONATHAN:AND THE AGGRESSIVE PUSH BACK AGAINST RATE CUT CALLS AS THEDOMINANT THEME THIS MORNING. LISA:PEOPLE ARE SAYING WE EITHER GET A SOFT LANDING AND VERY FEWRATE CUTS ARE A HARD LANDING AND MANY MORE RATE CUTS.JONATHAN:.

PAT GELSINGER IS WITH US. >> IT'S GREAT TO BE WITH YOUTODAY. JONATHAN: NO QUESTIONS ON CHAIRMAN POWELL.TALK TO ME ABOUT DE GLOBALIZATION.HOW COMPATIBLE IS IT WITH THE CHIP INDUSTRY? >> EVER SINCE WE STARTED THISJOURNEY OF BRINGING U.S. CHIPS IN THE EU CHIPS BACK INPLACE, IT WAS ABOUT BUILDING SUPPLY CHAINS.I ASK ALL THE TIME — WHAT ASPECT OF YOUR LIFE IS NOTBECOMING MORE DIGITAL?.

EVERYTHING IS IN EVERYTHINGDIGITAL RUNS ON SEMI CONDUCTORS. WE SAW THE FRAGILITY OF OURSUPPLY CHAIN THROUGH COVID. BECAUSE WE ARE ONE ISLAND, WESAID WE NEED A BALANCED SUPPLY CHAIN FOR THE WORLD AND THAT'SWHAT WE ARE OFF TO DO METOO REBUILD THE AMERICAN ANDEUROPEAN SUPPLY CHAINS FOR SEMICONDUCTORS. WE ARE ALL BETTER OFF, BETTERJOBS, BETTER NATIONAL SECURITY, BETTER ECONOMICS AND WE AREREADY FOR A TURBULENT WORLD. WITH TWO WARS ACTIVE TODAY AND– IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES AND.

DIFFERENT GEOPOLITICALCONCERNS, THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE FUTURE. JONATHAN: WALK OUR AUDIENCE THROUGH THECHIPS ACT AND HOW BIG IT IS AND WHETHER YOU RECEIVED ANYTHINGFROM IT YET? >> IT'S $2 BILLION IN SOME OFIT WAS CAPITAL OFFSETS AND SOME OF IT WAS LONG-TERM R AND D.IT'S A VERY SIMILAR CONSTRUCT TO THE EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT.WE NEVER VOTED TO GET RID OF THIS INDUSTRY FOR THE FUTUREBUT ASIAN ECONOMIES VOTED TO GET IT AREA AS A RESULT, WE ARENO LONGER COMPETITIVE.

SO LET'S CREATE A LEVELING ANDLONG-TERM INCENTIVES TO INVEST IN THIS INDUSTRY AND THAT'SWITH THE CHIPS ACT IS DOING. COMMERCE SET UP THEIRDEPARTMENT FOR THE EU COMMISSION WHICH IS NOWUNDERWAY AND WE HAVE PROJECTS IN THE U.S.AND PROJECTS IN EUROPE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT.THEY ARE IN THE LATTER STAGES. THEY SAY WE ARE BUILDINGFACTORIES TODAY SO LET'S GO. LISA:CAN YOU QUANTIFY HOW MUCH INTEL IS RECEIVING FROM THE CHIPS ACT?CAN YOU QUANTIFY HOW MUCH.

CHEAPER IT WOULD MAKEMANUFACTURING IN THE U.S.? >> INDUSTRY ANALYSIS LIKE THESEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION IN THE U.S.WITH SIMILAR STUDIES DONE HAVE SAID IT'S 30-40% CHEAPER TOBUILD IN ASIA BECAUSE OF TAXES, TARIFFS, INCENTIVES, LABOR, THESUPPLY CHAINS. THE CHIPS ACT IS DESIGNED TOCLOSE THAT GAP. IF YOU ARE BUILDING A 20BILLION DOLLAR FACILITY, YOUR 30-40% UN COMPETITIVE WITHOUTTHESE CAPABILITIES BEING PUT IN PLACE AND THAT'S WITH THE U.S.AND EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT IS.

DOING, SO THAT WHEN WE MAKEENORMOUS FACILITIES LIKE THE ONE WE ARE BUILDING IN GERMANY,IT'S WELL OVER 30 BILLION EUROS. THIS IS HUGE AND I CANNOT BEUNCOMPETITIVE AND COMPETE IN THE WORLD MARKET. LISA:WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE SUPPLY CHAINS AND WHO WILL BE BUILDINGTHE CHIPS WITH YOU, IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT YOUR CHIPS ANYMORE.HAVE YOU HAD REAL CONVERSATIONS WITH THE AMAZONS IN THE WORLDAND APPLE AND NVIDIA ABOUT MANUFACTURING THERE CHIPS? >> WE'VE HAD LOTS OFCONVERSATIONS WITH THEM AND WE.

START TO CLOSE DESIGN GAPS WITHDIFFERENT ONES. IT'S NOT THE INDUSTRY PRACTICEFOR THEM TO SAY THEIR NAME BECAUSE THEY ALREADY HAVERELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHERS AND THAT CARD.IT'S COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE. WE NOW HAVE THREE MAJOR FOUNDRYCUSTOMERS FOR OUR MOST ADVANCED PROCESSED TECHNOLOGY.WE HAVE ANNOUNCED MULTIPLE ADVANCED PACKAGING CUSTOMERS ASWELL. MY EARNINGS CALL IS NEXT WEEKWE WILL UPDATE THOSE AS WE COME UP WITH EARNINGS CALLS AND WEARE MAKING SOLID PROGRESS FOR.

INDUSTRY ENGAGEMENT. WE HAVE TEST CHIPS THAT WILL BEGOING INTO THE FACTORIES IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS FOR DIFFERENTPOTENTIAL CUSTOMERS. MOMENTUM IS BUILDING FOR US TOBECOME THAT WESTERN FOUNDRY FOR THE WORLD. JONATHAN:THE POLITICAL ATTENTION THIS INDUSTRY HAS GOTTEN HAS BEENPHENOMENAL. I REMEMBER WHENTHE STATE DEPARTMENT CHANGED BECAUSE IT WAS SAID THE HEAD OFTHE DEPARTMENT WAS THE ULTIMATE DIPLOMAT.HAVE YOU HAD TO BECOME A.

POLITICIAN OVER THE LAST FEWYEARS? >> MY DAY JOB IS RUNNING INTELAND MAKING SURE WE REBUILD PROCESSED LEADERSHIP OR PROJECTENGINEERING AND REBUILDING OUR CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS.I HAVE HAD TO SPEND MORE TIME IN BRUSSELS AND THE CAPITOLHILL ON THESE TOPICS BUT I CERTAINLY WOULD NOT HAVEENVISIONED WHEN I TOOK THE JOB. IT'S BEEN FULFILLING AS WELLBECAUSE I THINK WE'VE CREATED THE TWO MOST SIGNIFICANT PIECESON INDUSTRIAL POLICY SINCE WORLD WAR II.WE'VE ACCOMPLISHED THAT IN THE.

LAST COUPLE OF YEARS ANDFUNDAMENTALLY, WE ARE REBUILDING THE SUPPLY CHAINS OFTHE WEST AND I'M PROUD OF THAT. LISA:YOU MENTIONED BUILDING IN THE U.S.AND YOU THREW IN EUROPE AND I WONDER WHERE THE EUROPEAN CHIPSACT IS. HOW MUCH CHEAPER IS IT TODEVELOP IN THE U.S. THEN EUROPE? DO THEY LACK THAT COMPETITIVEEDGE? >> THE GAPS BETWEEN U.S.AND ASIA AND EUROPE AND ASIA ARE SIMILAR.

THE 30-40% IS A GOOD THUMB INTHE AIR FOR THAT COMPETITIVENESS. IT'S NOT U.S.VERSUS EUROPE, IT U.S. AND EUROPE TO BE COMPETITIVEWITH ASIA. WE WERE IN 1990, 80% WAS BUILTIN THE U.S. AND EUROPE AND NOW IT'S 20%.LISA: BUT EUROPE DOESN'T HAVE A CHIPSACT. >> THEY DO. LISA:DOES IT ENCOMPASS ENOUGH? >> WE FEEL GOOD WITH THAT ANDOUR PROPOSALS FOR POLAND AND GERMANY, THE TWO BIG PROJECTSWE'VE ANNOUNCED WILL SOON BE.

GOING THROUGH THE DG COMPPROCESS. I MET — I MET WITH THE COMMISSIONER LAST WEEK AND WEDISCUSSED THOSE PROPOSALS FROM GERMANY AND BRING IT FORWARDAND POLAND BRINGING FORWARD. WE EXPECT THOSE TO COME TOFRUITION QUICKLY AND GET THE BIG PROJECT UNDERWAY.WE ARE QUITE EXCITED AND IT BUILDS ON WHAT WE ARE DOINGALREADY IN IRELAND. WE ARE ALREADY DOING IT INISRAEL. JONATHAN: IT'S GOOD TO SEE YOU AND THANKYOU FOR CATCHING UP WITH US. >> ALWAYS A PLEASURE TO BE ONBLOOMBERG. JONATHAN:.

THE CEO OF INTEL AND THEULTIMATE POLITICIAN. THAT'S WHAT'S HAPPENED TO THATINDUSTRY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LISA:THIS IS THE NEW ARMS RACE AND HAS TO DO WITH THE HARDWARE ANDTHE SOFTWARE. JONATHAN: I BELIEVE MANUS CRANNY WILLTAKE IT TO THE OPENING BELL IN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL BE BACK AND CATCH UPWITH CHEVRON AND TALK ABOUT POLITICS AND POLICY BUT NOT INTHE WHITE HOUSE BUT FROM STATE TO STATE. LISA:WE HAVE SEEN THAT IN MASSIVE.

WAYS, TALKING ABOUT LEAVINGCALIFORNIA BECAUSE OF SOME PRACTICES THAT MAKE IT LESSPROFITABLE. INTERESTING DYNAMICS. JONATHAN:I WOULD GO FOR THE TAXES. LISA: YEAH? JONATHAN: COMING UP, MIKE WERTH, CEO OFCHEVRON. FROM DAVOS, SWITZERLAND, GOODAFTERNOON AS WE WRAP UP DAY ONE.

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