Hello guys how is everyone today I have Nathan Bray with me hi folks thank you so much to joining us and um already before we start anything here subscribe to the channel give us a thumbs up because this video Promise all right today is the day the ECB day is on the Thursday it's a rainy Thursday it is here in Sydney here in Sydney of course.
It's a rainy Thursday and things are getting quite strange in the market market and the trading floor this morning was talking about it we were talking about you know uh Peter me um Nathan and some of the Lan as well we're talking about the ECB is ECB cing tonight or ECB is not cing tonight so uh folks this is what we want to discuss.
With everyone so stay with us until the end that Nathan Ray will definitely give us your rhetoric what are you what are you thinking about the ECB so so do I all right Nathan we've just had the Bank of Canada cutting we have interest rates with a 10 uh sorry a 2.7 inflation number very true as now ECB Europe has an inflation number I'm I'm mentioning.
Year over e right guys so um otherwise it would be too too beig too huge numbers already down the line so 2.6 for the um Europe and 2.7 for Canada do you see any similarity there do you think because of Canada have cut with 2.7 will ECB cut with 2.6 or it's a completely different market and um give us give us a little bit of your rhetoric Nathan.
Well the goal was two the target was we need to get back to two Y which in my view meant back inside to in a way right cross the finish line so Canada has decided that it doesn't need to cross the finish line it's going to cut anyway a lot people in life people including myself have big goals in life but we don't achieve them no okay but at school.
These days they'll give you the certificate of participation to make you feel good and to get your parents to keep paying those school fees so I'm thinking if Canada hasn't reached their target and and they cut y what's wrong with now following yes um one thing that I want to you know we were actually discussing this last year because the C.
Banks were discussing this as well and we were like well if we can't reach the goal then we change the goal isn't it which they've done before yeah right central banks have done this before exactly so and then uh even the FED all right the FED looks the big boy and like they know what they doing but they're very lost to be honest they they're very.
Very lost on what they will have to do next um now I share the same principles as you okay so we're we're sort of we're hoping for the cut and I would like to aggregate some data here if David could please put this image up here we can see that 69% of the market is already expecting a cut from the ECB not only one cut three Cuts this year okay three.
Cuts this year 8% of the market is expecting two cuts so maybe every 60 days kind of couple maybe maybe as still okay correct and the market is expecting the first cut to be today and this is priced in not only because of the market but yes of the inflation PMI data um all of the other things subjected to lowering the economic.
Stability and bringing down um the rates now not only important will be the rate cut that I do think that this can possibly happen will bring euro dollar down for the last for the first 30 minutes or one hour um just remembering guys this is not an investment advice this is usually what happened in the past I'm just um giving the data back to.
To you all it's what happened last night with the dollar cap is perfect example yes this is exactly what but in in in invert inted because um so basically this is what I'm expecting on euro dollar a shoot down and then maybe tomorrow or next week up again to 1.10 um because that will be very weak in a sense for the market in a in r now.
But then the Mark will understand that this is actually needed for the economy and then they will like oh okay so there we go they're cutting because they have to correct that is they're not cutting no not because they can take one day off from going on your jogging spree right they're doing it because they have to they have to yes and.
Therefore do all the big currencies have to yeah so we we had we had SN be being the first but let's you know let's not talk about them cuz they're too too professional on what they do um so and then we had the Bank of Canada they're landlocked let's just say that they're landlocked so we'll leave them on leave them outside um and congratulations to.
Them because they've done a fantastic job bringing inflation down was the first G8 and G10 country to bring inflation down as everyone was trying to bring inflation down they were laughing on it all right it's strange because chocolate and Rolexes are up in Australia true that's that's true oh kak kak Kaka all right.
Is up heat it's up a lot all right it's up a lot I was actually talking to one of my friends in Brazil he's a COA Trader he made so much money on that up move not not selling or not buying kakoa cfds actually selling chocolates because chocolates went up in price like did they get delivery yeah correct that isn't it those chocolates would be.
Gone and beef yes anyways so then we have Bank of Canada being the second first second first and now we probably going to have ECB and then who do you think is going to be next I don't this is not the video um title but who do you think can be probably next Nathan well if Canada's doing it yep right I think about the Australia being a very similar.
Scenario to Canada commodity country um they've got a household debt kind of problem like Vancouver Vancouver Sydney can be compared in a similar fashion so are we going to see Australia need to follow suit the only the only variation there is the inflation rate oh yeah definitely the inflation rate in Australia is still a bit too high6 3.8.
If we're talking about providing support to an economy and that countryes need to cut because they're under pressure Australia's Under Pressure so could we start to see Australia follow suit I I I was actually listening to um a video I was watching a video I think was to yesterday or this morning I can't remember right now and uh one of the.
Analysts I can't remember where is from I think most probably Bloomberg he was saying that there is a possibility of a cut in RBA in December this year December so just W this year yeah just one this year Well Europe does have a parliamentary election coming up the US does us does I think us want I think us won't cut because then they will make.
The population think that the actual Central Bank has something to do with the government because in the end they do but the Central Bank says that they don't all right but anyways so it will tricky the manipulation of the population thinking that Biden is doing an actually a good economy and you know they want they one they one cutting.
There um and then we have UK's having trouble getting out of bed know so I'm not concerned that or all putting words together yeah like I feel like I'm struggling at times and I'm half his age okay yes all right maybe a bit more maybe a bit more than half his age but when I when I think about the saying or Biden has done I think we've got to.
Retire the president didn't do that yeah yeah yeah it was someone behind him he's like well lots of people behind him yeah what's the name Nathan off that little thing that you put on your head and then you know the hand puppet yeah exactly that's yeah like Kermit yeah exactly I like that I would vote for Kermit yeah okay really nice guy did the right thing.
By Miss Piggy you know I think it'll work but we can't forget about as well the little the the the the ugly the ug ugly duck that no one wants it's the UK bank of England is that is that Gonzo I think osar the Grouch Maybe yeah yeah there's a big there's a big probability of them being the the the the third one right after ECB because.
They're very close to each other true true so would the US follow Canada um I think a I think Australia and then um us yeah because this year I don't think we're going to Pro if we do we probably going to have only one cut from the FED if we do but remembering that last year everyone was expecting seven.
Right anyways guys this is all we have for you oh you want to say anything about the euro dollar euro dollar folks the trend is up on a technical level y when there's this kind of uncertainty and big news events I tend to try to go back to the basics and I'm seeing at the moment this daily trend is certainly up on the euro dollar so as you're saying.
If we could get some kind of pullback but I'm looking for that previous resistance to hold as support and not break then I think there's no reason to suggest that the trend at this stage isn't going to continue a bit High whereas if we get a strong sell off here on this euro dollar then are you looking.
Are you looking for the 110 as well as same as me or are you looking even higher or no cuz right now we're trading around 10 1091 around that I'm I'm do expecting maybe hard Luca I have made some great trade shorting the euro dollar I have trouble buying it now okay like the Aussie you know when youve just spent.
Years going this is my bias or my perspective and so I'm enjoying the strong rallies we're getting but I'm still thinking the weekly US dollar trend is still up at this stage so I just I just formulate a bias towards that and look for opportunities agree so at the moment if you look at a weekly chart on the euro dollar quick bring it.
Up you'll see we're inside a range right we're just sitting inside a higher range that's starting to you know almost be range consolidate since since last year so is this news going into stagflation yeah uh maybe that's the news that the market was waiting for to break to each of whatever side it breaks true so let's see how it's going to be tonight folks.
Um thank you so much for watching into the end again please subscribe to the channel give us a thumbs up and tonight don't miss my webinar from 7 to 8:00 p.m. easy to register free no charges just go to the description off the video click into the register link and you will be rediction to the Acy website put your.
Email and we will send you the link all right guys thank you so much Nathan thank you so much cheers have a good one
