How Nuclear Missile, Submarine and Stealth Bomber Capabilities Match Up | WSJ U.S. vs. China

(dramatic music) – Thesesatellite images show silos designed to house intercontinental ballisticmissiles or ICBMs, according to military analysts. Hundreds have been constructedin China's desert regions in the last couple of years. The launchpads are onestep in China's growth as a Nuclear force,.

Touted in footage broadcastby Chinese state media, and analysts say they're getting closer to matching the US' capabilitiesacross land, sea, and air. Both countries are unlikelyto deploy nuclear weapons, but reaching triad capabilities enforces China's strengthas a nuclear power. So we unpack how the US and China's current Nuclear arsenals match up. (dramatic music).

Since World War Two, the US has been testing nuclear weapons. This created a decades long lead on China, but military analysts and US officials say China's capabilitiesare rapidly growing under President Xi Jinping. China currently has an estimatedinventory of 400 war heads but the Pentagon says it's on the path to having as many as 1500 by 2035.

Compare that to the US,which has an operational warhead inventory, restricted to 1,550. (dramatic music) And China's nuclear modernization process involves more than increasingthe number of warheads. The country is also advancingthe types of launchers in all three triad areas. Land-based systems are key in that three-pronged nuclear structure.

For China, it's the DF-41, an ICBM which defense analysts say couldbe deployed in those silos. The missiles can also belaunched from mobile systems. And the US military says China now has more land-basedlaunchers than the US. The DF-41 is likely capableof carrying three warheads, defense analysts say, using what's called a MIRV System. MIRV enables the weapons.

To deliver multiple warheadsfor different targets, dropping them at separate pointsalong the same trajectory. And Chinese state officials said the missile cantravel up to 9,300 miles, making it one of the longest range weapons of it's type in Beijing's arsenal. Compare that with the USversion, the Minuteman Three. The missile has a rangeof over 6,000 miles. It's also capable of carryingthree warheads using MIRV,.

But the US limits it'ssystems to only deploy one. Analysts say thatChina's expansion on land is partly to do with America's development of conventional or non-nuclear weapons. – The Americans have a military that is increasingly emphasizing long range conventional precision strike. – Hans Kristensenhas been studying the status of US nuclear weaponssince the early 1980s.

– Those types of weaponsthat, for many targets, can hold at risk targets that previously needed nuclearwarheads to be held at risk. And this is in fact a seriousconcern for the Chinese and one of the reasons, I think, that they're buildingthese large silo fields deep inside China. – The Chinese government did not respond to aWSJ request for comment.

On whether the building of the silos was tied to Americanmilitary advancements. And a senior Chinese official would not confirm the missile silos in comments to state TV in 2022. However, the official did say the size of China's nuclear force should not be estimated,based on satellite imagery. Those silos also reveal a keyissue with land-based systems.

They're visible. So building nuclear missilesfor submarines, or SSBNs, is a way to remain incognito. Defense experts say Beijing'scurrent underwater fleet has some crucial vulnerabilities. – The Chinese nuclear submarines are widely believed to be muchnoisier than American ones. – That's Dr. Tong Zhao. He's been researchingChina's nuclear weapons.

For more than 10 years. – And that would significantly undermine the overall survivabilityof the Chinese submarines and therefore underminethe overall credibility of it's sea-based nuclear deterrence. – Anothercrucial differentiator is how far the missiles launched from the vessels can travel. Take China's newest Jin Class submarine.

Compared with the latestUS version, the Ohio Class. This submarine carriesthe Trident Two Missile, which can travel approximately6,480 nautical miles. Whereas China's carries JL-2 missiles which have a shorter range of approximately 3,800 nautical miles. The JL-2 is sufficient forChina to target Alaska, Guam and Hawaii from waters near China, some military experts say,.

But to hit US mainland targets, Beijing's vessels wouldneed to be deployed farther from China'scoast into the Pacific where military experts saythe US has an advantage. That's because the US has placed anti-submarine defenses in the waterway, limiting China's ability totravel deep into the waters. – They can go out and andtake all sorts of positions, where are they gonna strike from?.

How close are they gonnabe to the Chinese mainland? – But China'sability to strike anywhere could come together with the deployment of it's new JL-3 system. The Pentagon says ithas an estimated range of over 5,400 nautical miles, and would for the first time, place the west coast of the US within incredible striking range of China.

The last piece of a nuclear triad status, capabilities in the air. For China, it may come down to the H20 Stealth Strategic Bomber. It's yet to be unveiled,but in a 2022 report, the pentagons of the aircraft would have a range of 6,200 miles. This could help China to reach previously out of range areas of the Western Pacific,.

Including this US basin, Guam. It's unclear when the aircraftwill be ready for deployment. – Are they already fullyoperationally deployed or are they still going throughtesting and readjustments? We don't know. (audience clapping and cheering) – In contrast,the US has already released new advancements in the air, with this B-21 stealth bomberunveiled in early December.

– This will be the firsttime that the United States has long range nuclear cruisemissiles on a stealth bomber. – Military analysts say the plane helps to modernize the country's large, but aging fleet. – Even when the Chinese get their bomber force up to full snuff, it's still not a global strike force like the American at all.

– Even withthe US ahead in the air, China's growth is likely to continue. Experts on world nuclear powers say that President Xi Jinping's interest in expanding Beijing'snuclear arsenal has increased as China becomes an economicand political rival to the US. – (indistinct) China is able to catch up with United States in terms ofcomprehensive national power. His thinking is the moredesperate the US would become.

To contain China, tomake trouble for China. – While it's extremely unlikely either nation will actuallydeploy nuclear weapons, the Pentagon has said China'sexpanding nuclear stockpile could negatively impactglobal strategic stability. – The prospect of a USChina war over Taiwan or another regional flashpoint is much realistic than before. – The Biden administration.

Has attempted to reduce thethreat of a nuclear conflict by pushing for armscontrol talks with China. But China has rejected those overtures, citing it's smaller inventory and saying the US shouldreduce it's stockpile first. And military analysts notethat China's expansion also comes after decades of criticizing the United States and Soviet Union for possessing nuclear triad status.

– [Dr. Tong Zhao] China sees itself as a leading international power which deserves to possessthe same capabilities as the other nuclear major powers. (mellow music)

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