Is Australia on a Twin carriageway to Climate Hell? | Joelle Gergis & Polly Hemming

Today I am delighted to be talkingto the Australia Institute's 2024 writer in residence, JoëlleGergis, about her latest Quarterly Essay titled Highway to Hell. Thanks Polly. It's great to be here. the title of your essayis Highway to Hell. I'm assuming it's not a referenceto ACDC, but you might surprise us. Can you tell us where this title camefrom? Well, I've got to confess, itactually wasn't my title. I gave an early draft of this essayto Richard Denniss to take a read of it.

And in there actually quoteAntonio Guterres and where he says, “We're on the highway to Climate Hellwith our foot still on the accelerator.” And so basically the essay is reallya deep dive into what that actually means. It's a scientific reality check of where we are when it stands.As your essay references, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres sayswe're on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator. He also said in that same speech that climateis the defining issue of our age,.

And it's unacceptable for governmentsto put climate change on the backburner. does your essay explain why it's unacceptable for governmentsto put climate change on the backburner? Yeah, absolutely. So I think of this essay as a scientific realitycheck in terms of where we are right now. 2023 was the world'shottest year on record, and we smashed so many records that a lot of peoplein the climate science community.

Are starting to wonder whether or notwe're actually seeing precursors to abrupt climate change. So that's a really serious and significantthing to be grappling with. And at the same time, we're seeingnot only the Australian government, but governments around the worldcontinuing to support the productionand use of fossil fuels. So the IPCC says that around 60% of oil and gas reservesneed to remain unextracted. And when it comes to coal,90% needs to remain in the ground.

If we're going to try and limitwarming to 1.5 degrees. So we're so far off track right now, it'sit was actually confronting to work on this essay to just see justhow far away we are from the political rhetoric in terms of thethe scientific reality we're facing. I don't think people appreciate what we're up against and howvulnerable we are in here in Australia. Do you think that's fair to say? Yeah, absolutely.

And I actually talk a little bitabout that in the essay where I look at some pollingwhere people, the average person doesn't really fully appreciate just how seriousthe threat of climate change actually is. Australiais one of the most vulnerable nations in the worldwhen it comes to climate change. Around about three quarters,three quarters of Australia is either classified as arid or semi-aridso about half of the country receives less than 300 millimetersof rainfall per year. So you can think of Australiaas it's just a very hot and dry continent,.

But we're also the flattest continenton the earth as well. So we're very exposedto increases of sea level. So when we think about sea level rise, a rule of thumbis that for every one meter of sea level rise that we get, you see about 100 metersof the shoreline receding. So that's the loss of,you know, sandy shorelines and beaches and things like that. So that that's really significant as wellfor a lot of people who love the outdoors.

And and also just most of our coastalinfrastructure, we're very dry, we're very flat,we're exposed to extreme heat and that leaves us really vulnerableto the threat of climate change. So I'm always told that peopledon't like hearing bad news stories and that everyone needs hope. And we need to give people stories of optimismand hope when it comes to climate. I don't actually think that's true. I think fear is a far bigger motivatorin our lives, otherwise we wouldn't bother getting vaccinations or insurance.

I think that the issue is not bad news per say. I thinkwhen it comes to climate change that none of us know what to dobecause governments are actively blocking the solutions or making them seemso much bigger and harder than they are. Do you think that's fair to say? Yeah, I do, actually. And I think it's actuallypretty heartbreaking because if you actually lookat the literature.

That the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, the CSIRO and the International Energy Agencyall say that we could actually reduce emissions between 50 and 80% by 2030 with existing technology. So when I came across that,I realized that all the solutions that we need already exist today. And I think that's the that'sthe thing that really is motivating me to, to, to write the essay,to think about talking about climate change because the solutionsare there, but the political will isn't.

But the longer that we leave, I thinkI often like to think about climate change in the context of also, you know,the analogy of a medical condition. So the longer that you ignore or delay treatment of a medical condition,the worse and worse and worse it gets. But the thing is, is that if you leave ittoo long, then you could lock in irreversible and, you know,irreversible change, if you like. And I guess that's whatthe climate science community is really worried about oftenwe hear about these false solutions like carbon capture and storage,which is basically used to justify.

The continued expansion of fossilfuel projects right now. But when you look at the numbers,I read about 80% of all of the CCS projects overthe last 30 years have failed. And if you add up all of its capacity in terms of its ability to reduce emissions, we're talking about 0.1%,so 1/10 of 1% of total global emissions are absorbed by carbon capture and storageas it stands today. And even if all of the CCS projectsthat are currently on the books.

Worldwide, we're still only lookingat 1% of total global emissions. Now. That's a very risky gamble in termsof destabilizing the Earth's climate, and it's the sort of thing that I thinkthe average person isn't probably aware of but should be aware ofbecause there are very fateful decisions that are being made right now. And that's why I personally thinkthe next federal election is absolutely criticalin our nation's history. there's so much inertia and obfuscation by government thatthis does feel like an impossible task.

But You list a number of policy ideasthat could be implemented very quickly. We've seen that government can act quicklywhen it wants to. You know, look at the COVID response. We went out and bought some submarines over the course of a couple of days. Governmentscan act very quickly when they want to. And you list some of these policysolutions. That's one of the most frustrating thingsas a climate scientist, because the technology.

We need to reduce emissions by between 50and 80% already exists right now. So the very first thing I would suggestis that we need to vote for leaders that have a sense of integrity aroundclimate leadership and what it is to enact climate policies that are really goingto do the heavy lifting. So really,the first thing that governments could do if they really wanted tois to put a price on carbon. So right now, heavy industry and is basically pouring carboninto the atmosphere for free. I think if companies realizedthat they had to pay for the damage.

That they're causing,they would stop causing it. Yeah, quite quickly. That's right. I mean, I think it's as simpleas I think we talked about it previously, which is just the conceptof polluter pays. And right now we're still pouring carboninto the atmosphere for free. And that's got to stop because, as I said,there are now components of the Earth system that is starting to destabilizeand resulting in really extreme conditions.

All over the world. So that has to stop. We also need to set a firm end date for the expansionand the use of fossil fuels so this can't go on and alreadyit is has gone on for too long. And I guess we're in the situationwe're in because it's basically colossal government failureto to to enact proper climate policy. What about fossil fuel subsidies? So collectively, Australian governmentsgive $14 billion?.

Well, in the last financial year,they gave $14 billion. That seems like somethingthat you would not do if you. That's right. And according tothe International Monetary Fund, in 2022, $7 trillion were poured into fossilfuel subsidies worldwide. So it's not just Australia here. It is a global problem. well, I refer to it in my essay as a intergenerational crimeagainst humanity, actually,.

Because I think it's once we destabilize the Earth's climatethat's with us to the tens of thousands of years,we just can't undo that. So I guess from my perspective, it's hoping that people will read this essay and think about what it isthey can do to help shift the social licensefor the continued exploitation of fossil fuels, particularly in this country, and putting pressure on our governmentto also be a global leader.

They could actually choose toto take an ethical stance and decide to to actually startto reduce our consumption of fossil fuels. And they will argue that we are. But if you look at the Labor government'sfuture gas strategy, there are plans to increase gas production all the way out to 2050 and even beyond, and that is completely inconsistentwith what the. science says that we need to do so. Well, I mean, what more can you say,really?.

I mean, it's pretty obviouswhen you start looking at it. But we always have a really, really longway to go in terms of the average person really understandingthat this is a very serious problem that requires all of usto stop standing on the sidelines and realize that the very stabilityof the Earth's climate and our ability to live here in a countrylike Australia is at stake. So we've got to step up. for once it's a good news storythat Australia is the world's third largest fossil fuel exporterbecause that means.

When we do something herethat has a global impact. So if we actually did put an end datefor the last coal mine, if we did stop subsidizing fossilfuel expansion because that we're planning to do thatinto the future as well, if we did stopapproving new gas and coal projects, that would have a significant impacton global supply of fossil fuels. So we're small in some ways, butwe're actually very significant in others. That's such a great point,and that's one that I think that's really where climate leadership,.

The potential for climate leadership,really lies in that space right now. We need to really understand thatwhat we do really matters in this country and there'll be ripplesthroughout the world. And we, you know, there’s only one chanceto get this right. And I always say that the 2020swe're going to look back at this decade as the make or break in termsof whether or not we end up destabilizing the Earth's ice sheets and unleashing acascade of of irreversible climate change. And I'm still holding outsome hope that we will wake up.

And and try and reel this in. the IPCC reports basically outline everything we need to doto get this under control. So it basically comes downto political will. I mean, political recognitionof the problem of climate change started 30 years ago. So we've known about this problemfor a really long time. But the science, the key messages of the scientific communityhave been ignored for decades.

And now we're at the point where,for instance, in the process of writing this essay, The world's fourth mass coralbleaching event started to unfold. And it was just another sign for methat every single day that climate is changing and that 80% of the Great Barrier Reefbleached is really significant. And during the last El Nino event,which is it was in 2016, 2017, about 50% of the.

Corals in the Great Barrier Reef died off. So we've had mass bleaching again in 2020, 2022 and now 2024. So how much is permanently going to dieoff is is still unknown or undisclosed actually by the government in terms ofjust how bad the damage has been. But I guess whatI'm trying to say with that is that the impacts of climate changeare with us now. They’re escalatingand I think 2023 was a wake up call for the climate science communitybecause there's just.

A lot of unpredictability in the climateand the way that the climate has been behaving is becoming moreand more erratic, non-linearand harder to to really predict. it's really the age of consequencesis something I talk about in my in my essay is that there's reallyno way to hide anymore. I think the impacts are escalating. We have more than enough scientificand technical know how to do this. It's reallythe political will and it's also people, everyday, ordinary Australians,just really caring about the future.

Of our country because, you know,sometimes I know it's a difficult thing to think about, but the decisions that are being madetoday, are fateful and it really will determine the paththat we take and which trajectory we go down,because with the IPCC different scenarios, we know that we can avert the worstaspects of climate change if we actually really reign in emissions. And so we're not talkingabout the full solutions of carbon capture and storage or dodgy carbon creditsand things like that.

We're talking about really shutting downthe fossil fuel industry, restoring ecosystems and starting to think about ways to draw downthe excess carbon in the atmosphere. It's a big job, but there's many,many things we can do today. So the first thing would do to dowould be stop for the first thing to do would be to stop subsidizing fossil fuels, ban them, that'd be great too, and then rapidly investin renewable energy technology.

So the transmission and the the rolloutcan be a lot more smooth than it has been because, you know, right now in a countrylike Australia with the sunniest continent on the planet,yet we only get 50% of electricity from solarand it really shouldn't be that way. It really shouldn't. So there are huge economic opportunitieshere. We have to know how. It'sjust a matter of doing it. Do you think Australians are goingto be going to the polls or do you think the world, judging.

Whether Australia should be hosting a UNclimate conferences, would look at how things have played outover the last couple of years in Australia and think, Yep, more of this,this is what I'm going to vote for. Yeah, look, this is, as I say, it's a fateful momentin Australia's history. We really what we do really matters. It matters, as you said before, because we're the third largestfossil fuel exporter. we only have one chance to get this right.

So if we blow it, then we blow itnot just for us as Australians, but we blow it for our neighbors inthe Pacific who are particularly hard hit. And again,I write about that in in my essay. I mean, there'sjust so many things I could say, but it is that's the reason why I'm here. I'm actually taking time awayfrom my scientific research career to write this essaybecause I want to share all the knowledge I have access to at my fingertipsas far and wide as possible, because I know people find IPCC reportsreally hard to read.

The science can be really dense. I've also learned that policy documents can be really,really dense and hard to navigate. So I've just devoted all of my attention into really getting to the bottom of this. And really I came back up with realizingthat it's a lot simpler. It is difficult,but it's also really simple. The solutions are simple.The political will is a difficult thing. So I guess we need to stop and think it.

Not that climate change isn't just a scientific issue, it'sthe great moral challenge of our time. And if we think about it like that,I think it helps shift the conversation because I know people don't like to talkabout climate change sometimes because it's really overwhelmingand it's really technical and it's hard. But if we don't,then the decisions that are being made right now about the future of our countrywill not have any of our input. And it's importantthat we do engage in the political process because I really believe that the timefor standing on the sidelines is past.

We're in the age of consequencesand what we do every single day matters. And so that's the reason why I'm here, isthe reason why you're here. That's the reasonwhy people are listening, because that's what we need to do. And the good news is that,you know, people really care about this. There is a momentum buildingand there is a big social movement happening all over the world,and we're just a part of it. But we have to keep pushingand pushing hard because the future of our worldreally hangs in the balance.

Well, thank you so much, Joëlle,for all your work, for bringing your work to usso we don't have to do it. And for, I suppose, being on the frontline of very confronting and probably fair to say, traumatizing informationand writing it up so beautifully and concisely for usso we don't have to wade through it all. Joëlle's Quarterly Essay is called Highwayto Hell, and it's available in bookshops or online. Thanks for watching. We love that we can make these videos freeto watch, but they're not free to make.

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