You are taking a live listen into a rally that is happening right now in Tel Aviv Israel these are people who have gathered at hostages Square in Tel Aviv calling for the release of hostages being held in Gaza you are also taking a live look at the Israel Gaza border as it is nighttime and we do want to give you the very latest in the ongoing.
Israel Hamas war that is now in its fifth month Israel is vowing to press ahead with its offensive in the southern Gaza Strip despite warnings from the US to work harder to protect civilians over the past few days Israel's military has raided Nasser Hospital in conun which is the main hospital in the southern Gaza Strip saying it had evidence that.
Israeli hostages had been held there now it did not find any hostages but it did say it Arrested 100 militants 20 of which claimed it had been involved in the attacks that started the war last October a surgent at the hospital said one patient had been killed in the raid now the upcoming offensive on Rafa has also sparked warnings by neighboring.
Egypt worried that the fighting would push Palestinian civilians into its territory and in fact it has threatened to suspend its peace treaty with Israel it has also fortified a buffer zone on the border with another wall now across the border with Israel is Lebanon and fighting also heated up this week across that border rocket fire from Lebanon.
Killed an Israeli soldier on Wednesday and in response an Israeli drone strike killed a Hezbollah commander and two other operatives in Lebanon the next day Israeli strikes killed 10 Lebanese civilians prompting Hezbollah to fire a salvo of rockets into Northern Israel and threaten to expand the conflict Dr Howard Sofer is going to be joining us.
He is a professor of national security from the University of New Haven Dr stofer thank you so much for joining us my pleasure so I do want to talk about everything that's been going on and in fact right now live in Munich Germany world leaders have been at a conference in part discussing the ongoing Israel Hamas war and Security in the Middle.
East at this point in time again the war is still in in in a regional area but again there is so much inter International input you know what do you make of all of this well I think the Munich security conference brings together uh leaders from uh all the countries in the world in particularly in the Middle East and.
You have there uh the prime minister of gatar which has been very instrumental in uh negotiating with Kamas together with Egypt and and the United States and with um Israel uh you know had been that Cairo meeting about a few days ago which didn't lead to a final framework but it did uh settle a number of issues the biggest issue in that particular meeting.
Was U how many Palestinians should be released um and which Palestinians should be released and return for hostages being uh slowly um released over a period of days and weeks in a pause I think at the meeting in um Munich there is obviously some discussions going on because the prime minister of gutar said that you know.
Hostages being released should not be the sole um outcome of a pause and of course for the Israelis the release of hostages is essential there is really no agreement that they can reach that doesn't include having hostage is released um of course you have other players that are all there and I'm the Israeli hostage negotiator um who is in.
Munich even used BB's words again unfortunately when he when BB described Netanyahu I'm sorry Netanyahu described the last proposal that was put on the table by the the four negotiating with Kamas um as delusional and then the coordinator said the same thing yesterday um in Munich so uh obviously there there are discussions going on um.
The idea that you can just leave hostages behind um I think has to be a central point that they can raise but what if Israel has to decide what it's willing to pay for it apparently what's going on in the Israeli government now is that benir and smol who are the two extremist settlers in the government and have government portfolios as Finance.
Minister and um and security minister they they are really you know holding up uh Netanyahu being able to agree to some kind of a pause that would lead to uh more humanitarian Aid release of some Palestinian prisoners and the return of the hostages over a period of time and we're taking a live look at hostages square and as you can see a massive.
Amount of people right there calling for the release of hostages you'd mentioned Netanyahu and I have to imagine there is growing tension in Israel as it relates to how to navigate a potential ceasefire because again as he said you know he is not going to be accepting any of these previous proposed ceasefires well that's a problem because.
The the longer he delays some kind of an arrangement the greater pressure from these groups of families and others that support them and there are quite a few because every family that gets infected has at least 10 other people who are friends or family members so you multiply that by you know 100 hostages or 200 130 hostages and you come up with.
A very large number of people directly impacted you also have to remember that while no agreement is reached on a pause there is continuing to be um fighting in the north there are 25,000 people at least that are out of their homes in the North and the U Hezbollah keeps firing they just fired a few day last night they fired 25 missiles into kirat.
Shimona and destroyed um some vehicles and partial building um Israel is striking back um so that that is an ongoing uh issue and of course the hooti we United States been attacking attacking houti Targets in uh Yemen in Western Yemen where they've been threatening shipping coming out of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal so these.
These uh elements are all you know continuing and are heating up um I don't believe the Israelis can wait indefinitely uh to reach some kind of an understanding but on the other hand they are also planning to um to go into Rafa um how they will go in is a question mark because some people are leaving there are some people trying to move.
North wherever they can go I mean conun has you know been somewhat destroyed and further north Gaza City has been more occupied and destroyed but they need to leave Rafa before the Israelis can move in if the Israelis you know create a large number of casualties in moving in that's going to really get the United States um among.
Many other countries to basically say you can't do that you you have to give us assurances you go into Rafa that you will be able to minimize the number of Civilian casualties so uh the Israelis really have somewhat of a dilemma they say they're planning on their operations they're discussing it with their cabinet not today today is the Sabbath I doubt.
They' be doing it but they're they're planning what their move into Gaza would be like into into Rafa would be like and um you know one possible outcome would be they don't have to go in like all the other areas of Gaza they can go in with Special Operations use of intelligence and then go for the tunnels have and and fight in the tunnels which they're.
Willing to do now if they believe um you know the hostages are being kept in tunnels in Rafa and and the leadership are hiding in Rafa so that's that's a strong motivation to continue but there's also a strong pressure from people like these that are genuinely concerned as well as people around the world concerned about Palestinian.
Civilians and Israeli hostages absolutely and let's talk about the displaced Palestinians because really they really don't have many options as to where to go Egypt's already taken a very strong stand saying we don't don't want the Palestinians to come over to our border in fact has erected a wall they have also warned Israel about the.
Expansion into Rafa saying that that could jeopardize their 40-year peace treaty where do the Palestinians go well um I don't think Palestinians want to go into Egypt there have been um you know as you know the the Border opened up for those severely injured and allowed to go to Egyptian hospitals but that's a very small number of people the.
Palestinian Palestinian in Gaza want to go back to their homes they don't want to go to Egypt nor do the Israelis um at least from what the Netanyahu says he doesn't want and Galant as the defense minister they don't want Palestinians to be leaving the Gaza area there are the two criminals which I mentioned earlier Ben gavier and smri who are members of.
The government and you know they would love to see the Palestinians forced out of Gaza and to repopulate the area with settlers that is an a completely outlandish and delusional I will use BB's own words for describing what they want delusional um outcome they're not going to be able to get settlers in there that's just not going to happen.
And the United States wouldn't sit by if they started pushing Palestinians out now the Egyptians haven't just built the wall there are now a series of barriers you know more than one barrier it's a series of barriers and then land in between the barriers so it would be really difficult I think for any large number of Palestinians to force their.
Way through uh that just won't happen on the other hand and I remember you know many years ago when I was in the Sinai as a peacekeeper that border was just you know simply a few markers there were no walls there was nothing but the continuation of the desert but these are different times and the Egyptians know the Israelis they basically know the.
Israelis have to go into Rafa but they have to go in in a in the correct and low-key manner they can't just be bulldozing their way in as they have in conness in Gaza City and in other parts of of the Gaza Strip we've seen Israeli forces move from northern Gaza now expanding into the southern area of Gaza looking to expand into Rafa beyond that.
What is their objective obviously still to eliminate Hamas and free the hostages but once they go into Rafa and and that portion of the conflict winds down I mean you mentioned that there has to be an end point potentially uh as they continue this what what does that timeline look like what does that strategy look like well here we are it's.
Now uh you know February 17th there are a couple of dates to keep in mind you know um on March 11th begins Ramadan uh the holy month of Ramadan for um for the Islamic people and so during that time they fast from uh Dawn till till night fall and um you know uh it would be nice if there could be some kind of an arrangement worked out where there would.
Be a PO was during that period of time and following that you know in U in April when that when the Ramadan ends with the E uh you will have a a Jewish holiday coming up the holiday of Passover which marks when The Exodus of Israelites left Egypt and um and uh you know 3,500 years ago and that that holiday is observed uh by Jewish people.
Everywhere in the world so that'll be another eight days that would be a Jewish holiday um I suppose it would be you know wishful thinking to think to believe that some kind of a pause some kind of an understanding could be reached I would expect the israelies keep their eye on the calendar and know that you know during uh Ramadan um it.
Probably be a lot more difficult uh to operate um because uh you know people are going to be needing to eat no matter whether it's Ramadan or not not and I would think they want to try to get into rala as soon as they can but they can't go in there's still a million people you know camped in this one place around a hospital down there and these people.
Will have to be facilitated and helped in order to move and uh for them to to move into these areas uh in Rafa once once they've been in Rafa once they've checked many of the tunnels once they convinced the leadership is not hiding theirs I don't know where they could be hiding uh once they know that there are no hostages any longer in those tunnels.
Um I suppose it' be a good time for Israel to just say okay we've accompl what we can or they can fall back on the proposal I've mentioned numerous times following the 1982 um Paradigm when Arafat was cornered in um in southern Lebanon or just outside of Beirut he and his forces of the PLO were allowed to take a ship.
And leave you know all of them were able to get on a ship and leave for Tunis and uh be dealt with for another day and that might be the best way for uh the leadership of Kamas and their brigades that haven't been decimated yet by Israel to be able to be allowed to go to Elish in the northern part of uh of Sinai and get on a ship or a plane or.
Ships or planes and leave for other places where they would be welcomed like gatar for example Dr sopur is there anything else that you would want to add I mean we've been continuing to listen to a lot of the commentary and the conversations out of Munich Germany as many world leaders continue to discuss what needs to be.
Done in order to secure peace in in the Middle East uh anything else that you really like to focused on or anything else that you would want our viewers to know well I think the Press has um made more of a story out of the fact that Netanyahu and President Biden you know are you know sometimes not on the same page President Biden is still supporting.
The Israeli operation in Gaza however he's calling for greater um Israeli U understanding of the need for humanitarian Aid to come in and for the Israelis to be much more careful in their operations and not create casualties among civilians I think there is also an ongoing discussion that there's not agreement at all um about.
Creating a Palestinian State I mean there's no harm in talking about where you want to be in let's say five years um and it could be a Palestinian state if they're all new leaders in the Palestinian side both on the West Bank and in Gaza and there'll be new leadership in Israel because I don't foresee Netanyahu being around for.
Another five years I can almost foresee that there might be an election sometime later this year because there is a huge number of Israelis 80% of Israelis now seem to feel that Netanyahu um has you know outlived the time that he should be prime minister and he should get on with defending himself in court on the three cases that are against him and not keep.
Using the war as a foil for not dealing with that so will probably be a change of leadership in Israel as there will be among the uh among the people living in in Gaza but it will not be the Kamas leadership that you know started this war they'll they'll be somewhere they'll either not be alive anymore or they'll be traveling somewhere else or they'll.
Be captured but uh so you're going to see a change of leadership soon I can't really say when but a matter of weeks or months both in Israel and in and in Gaza all right Dr stoer with the University of New Haven as always thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us on this Saturday thank you so much too absolutely and you.
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