Militia Strategist Shows How China Would Likely Invade Taiwan | WSJ

– What would happenif China invaded Taiwan? (speaking in a foreign language) – What you'reseeing are training drills performed by the Chineseand Taiwanese militaries. (missile exploding) Both sides are preparing for a conflict, which if it took place, would likely includethe US in some capacity. Analysts say there aretwo causes for concern.

One is China's longstanding position that Taiwan is a part of China and that it would seekreunification by force if necessary. (speaking in Chinese) – The otheris its military builduip. The gravity of a potentialwar has now become a commonplace discussion in the US national security community and raise questions abouthow a conflict would unfold.

To answer those questions, experts look to war games. – Shall we play a game? – How can it ask you that? – How about global thermonuclear war? – Unlike in the movies, – What the hell? – In reallife war games resemble complex board games.

In 2022, the think tank, the Center for Strategicand International Studies developed a war game for aChinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Most of the war games that have been done about a conflict between the US and China have been classified. – Rumors indicate very adverse outcomes, but the assumptions and themechanics are not well known.

Because they're classified. We wanted to do something that was entirely unclassified so we could talk to a very broad audience. – Separated fromChina's southeastern coast by 100 miles of sea, Taiwan is a self ruled islandthat China claims as its own. The Central Intelligence agency estimates that Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Has set 2027 as the deadline for his military to beready to take the island. CSIS based its war games on a hypothetical Chineseinvasion of Taiwan taking place in 2026. CSIS's war game is aturn-based strategy simulation. After each turn is played, players turn to combat result tables and computer programs tocalculate combat outcomes.

Today, CSIS research assistant Chris Park will be helping facilitate gameplay. Players are divided into two sides. The red team represents China. The blue team representsthe US and its allies. Of the 24 scenarios played, the version you are aboutto see is the most likely. – As the game begins, the Chinese are movingtheir ships around Taiwan.

And their aircraft over Taiwan. The United States is respondingwith its own aircraft, with its bombers to attackthe Chinese naval forces and also with its surface ships that have been sent forward as part of the US effortto deter the conflict. The United States also hassubmarines in the streets. – CSIS's war gameis played with three maps. Two operational maps representthe regional operations.

Of the US and its allies and the Chinese forces respectively. Another ground map is used for the operations on the island. – The Chinese have now invaded the island. They've landed forces in the south. Strategically, it'd bebetter to land in the north. That's where the capital is. That's where much of the industry is.

The problem is that most of the Taiwanese militarycapability also in the north, that makes it verydifficult to invade there. Several of our teams try to do that in some of the iterations, it was just too difficult. There were too many defending forces, so most of the Chinese teamsdecided to land in the south. The challenge there isto occupy the country.

And to take the capital, they have to fight theirway up the entire island. The campaign looks muchlike the allied campaign in Italy during the SecondWorld War, bit by bit, very difficult terrain. Here we see that the Chinese have landed. First we have troops landing on the beach. There are only a handful of good beaches on Taiwan for landing troops.

These are indicated on the map and then around the airfield we have Chinese parachuteand air mobile troops, that is troops coming in by helicopter. And the purpose of doing that is if they can capture the airfield intact, then they can fly in. Troops and supplies arenot dependent on ships and craft bringing troops andsupplies across the beach.

– After bothsides play their turns, the game is paused for an adjudication in which the losses foreach side are calculated. – What we see is that theChinese amphibious units have successfully gone ashore. They've moved 10 kilometers inland and they eliminatedone Taiwanese battalion out of the defenders. The air mobile and parachutetroops were less successful.

That's a much more difficult operation. They landed around the airfield, eliminated one defendingTaiwanese battalion, but they lost three oftheir own battalions. This is a very risky operation and they have notcaptured the airfield yet. – Once the losses for the last turn are calculated, the second turn is playedwith dramatic results.

– There's not much change on the US side. Tremendous change on the Chinese side. Let's take a look. The US is continuing to focus on attacking the Chinese ships around Taiwan, trying to get throughthe picket screen there to get at the amphibious ships. The submarines are still in the straits. The one that was in the straits last turn.

Has moved back to base inJapan, Yakuza to reload. The squadron that was outsidethe straits has moved in and a new squadron has moved forward. Now looking at the Chinese side here, we have a lot of change and the big thing is that the Chinese have decided to strike Japan. And they've decided tostrike in a major way rather than just strike one.

Basically decided to strikeall of Japanese bases with Japanese aircraft and US aircraft. What you're seeing here is the flow of Taiwanese forces from the north where they were initially stationed protecting the capitol. Now they're coming downboth coasts to engage the Chinese landing troops in the south. There are more amphibious units.

That have come across the beach here. They're attacking the Taiwanese defenders. There are a few more airmobile parachute units that have landed around the airfield. They've surrounded the Taiwanese, which are holding out on the airfield, but both of these Chinese forces are attacking the Taiwanese. – After thesecond turn is played,.

The second adjudication round takes stock of the losses on both sides. – This has been a massive term. Both sides have takenvery heavy casualties. The results are that the Chinese lose one battalion over here and the Taiwanese also loseone defending battalion. Around the airfield, the Taiwanese lose one defending battalion.

And the Chinese loseone attacking battalion. – We now fastforward about three weeks to the last turn of the game. – The Chinese havemoved up the east coast, but they've bumped into Taiwanese units that are coming down the east coast. That movement has been slowedby the Chinese aircraft, which have been attackingthe transportation system, but eventually those troops get there.

And they've formed a prettysolid line on the east coast. The Chinese were able to clear the airport where the Taiwanese have been holding out and have moved forward here. In the center, they've bumped into a Taiwanese defensive line and that has been reinforcedby fortifications. They've moved into the citydown here in the south. The reason for moving into thecity is to capture the port.

– Finally, wearrive at the last adjudication and the end of the game. – This scenario concludes with the Chinese established ashore, but unable to expand their forces there. Much of the Chinese amphibious fleet has been destroyed. The United States and its partners have been attackingthose ships relentlessly,.

So their ability tobring troops and supplies onto the island has declined. Over time, those forces will weaken. The Taiwanese will push them back. Most of them will endup as prisoners of war. When we ran this game,we considered it a minor US coalition victory. It was a minor victory because it was gonna take a lot of time.

And there was going to bea lot of damage to Taiwan, but it was a US and coalition victory because the Chinese were unable to establish themselves on Taiwan and Taiwan endured as an autonomous and democratic entity. – Althoughthe US and its allies came out on top in this scenario, the US was not always successful.

– There were some scenarios where the United Statesdid lose the conflict. A key requirement is theuse of bases in Japan. The United States has many bases there. If it cannot use those bases, then it has no way of getting its fight or in attack aircraft into the fight. – Regardless of the scenario, any iteration of CSIS's war games found.

That the cost for allsides would be devastating. – The big takeaway fromthe project is that the United States and itscoalition partners can sustain an autonomous and democratic Taiwan, but it comes at great costto the Taiwanese economy. The US and its partners lose very heavily, but so do the Chinese, enough so that the grip ofthe Chinese Communist Party might be endangered.

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