S&P 500, Nasdaq edge higher after Powell says rate cuts coming ‘at some level’ this yr

hello and welcome to Market domination I'm Julie Heyman that's Josh Lipton live from our New York City headquarters we are giving you the ultimate investing Playbook to help tune out the noise and make the Right Moves for your money and here's your headline Blitz getting you up to speed 1 hour before the closing.

Bell rings on Wall Street the main issue is fixing streaming uh the media business and uh I think Bob has that under control as far as he knows what to do Disney people have a lot of faith in Bob Iger his ability as a good leader and a good manager we started to see some cracks um.

In the labor market but when you're looking at Wages that's what the fed's worried about and wages continue to be something that is creates a problem for the FED um if you look at the ADP report today and you take out those people that left their jobs willingly their wage increases were 10% um this is the type of stuff that should filter into those.

Wage numbers and that's going to create that sticky situation the fed's worried about op cater have made a created a huge deficit demand remains strong what could bring the prices up is a is a big out the moment you have potentially 500,000 a million barrels a day they uh temporar impact this is when you can see oil prices Notch up potentially another.

$5 $10 and that then you are in triple digital we've got an hour to go until the market close let's show you where we are in the major indexes and how we got here the Dow really going sideways today we did have a little bit more of a rally earlier in the session that has now sort of faded but you don't really have follow through from the selling pressure.

That we saw over the past last couple of sessions little change right now down by just 13 points a little bit to the upside for the S&P 500 it's held a little more steady throughout the day up about a fifth of 1% right now in the NASDAQ up about a fourth of 1% and you know we saw yesterday consternation over the climb in bond yields we did get.

Economic data this morning the ism Services index that showed a decline in prices but also a fall month over month so not seeing follow through on the data front either and so investors today going a little bit more sideways and the tenure yield kind of hovering there we just heard a little bit of talk about oils so just wanted to get the latest.

Check on WTI here up above $85 a barrel and holding up by about 410 to 1% we're going to dig more into oil prices later in the show finally quick check on the sector action here uh if you look at what is lagging the most it is consumer staples energy higher along with those oil prices and materials and Industrials also gaining some steam Josh well Julie.

We've also got our eyes set on Disney as it emerges Victorious now in its proxy battle with activist investor Nelson Peltz Disney making that official announcement at its annual shareholder meeting and we've got Yahoo finance's very own Alexander Canal here with the very latest Ally hi Josh yeah and I want to take a look at that stock price.

Because Shares are off nearly 3% right now we saw the stock starting to lose some steam on the heels of the decision so perhaps investors just digesting what this move ultimately means for the company moving forward but we finally have a resolution to this months long Saga the current Disney board will remain in place Disney's saying they won.

This proxy battle by a quote substantial margin additionally about 75% of retail shareholders voted in favor of Disney's current board that's according to a source with uh knowledge of the situation now all of this doesn't mean that Nelson PS is necessarily going to go away during the shareholder meeting now this was Prior to the results he did.

Say no matter what the outcome was tryan is going to continue to look at Disney's performance very closely and that's just something that we're going to have to continue to watch I will say that Nelson pelts all these proxy battles the activist investors I do think they pressured Disney to maybe commit to their turnaround plan a little more.

Quickly than they would have otherwise we have seen a lot of changes at the company restructuring efforts layoffs a boost to the dividend a partnership with Epic games a Taylor Swift movie which was also asked at the shareholder meeting if they plan to release any other Taylor Swift concerts on the Disney plus platform but all this to say.

That the stock is performing well it was the best year-to day performer in the Dow in the first quarter we're hovering at 52 we record highs so you know we're in a good spot but I don't think it fully takes a pressure off of Disney the board there's just going to be that much more of a microscope under this company to continue to outperform in the.

Quarters and the years ahead yeah and it's interesting to see the shares on the day maybe a sell the news kind of event or just you know without that Nelson Pelt poking at least as intensely maybe investors are going to miss it a little bit but there is one area of poking of Bob Iger that he is going to have to pay attention and that's the.

Succession planning and that was something that was in the works already and was talked about by investors but pelts once again sort of highlighted it and that's not something that Iger can ignore no and that's something that Pelt and his backers really hung their hat on when we think about where this proxy fight fight started and this is because.

Of the disaster that was Bob Chic when he took over in 2020 he was ousted just a few years later Bob Iger returned to the company and pelts essentially arguing that the board did not do enough to make sure that chapek was the right man for the job that they essentially just plated to Bob Iger didn't push back on a lot of what he had to say and.

That's why he was fighting for a board seat because if anyone's going to push back on something it's probably Nelson bels but but moving forward I do think the board understands this they have consistently maintained that succession is a main priority for this company Bob iger's contract expires at the end of 2026 he's promised us that that is when.

He is going to be leaving the company of course there's always that chance that he stays a little longer but you have to assume that they are working on this process now because Disney is a very complicated company there are different businesses we have the parks we have streaming we have cable it's difficult for any one person to really Master this.

And we have heard that some internal candidates they're shadowing Bob Iger just to to see to make sure that they're able to to do the job fully whoever that person is though go and have very big shoes to film it was always going be tough though Ally I mean for pelts when the stock is working like this it's up more than 30% this year and that just.

Tells you there are some happy shareholders when you talk to analysts how much credit do they give pelts if any for that kind of move they think the fact that P was there rattling the cages making noise focused Disney leadership maybe a bit more than they would have been they do and you guys are going be talking to NM manaly laa Martin she.

Released a note prior to the results basically saying that this upped the pressure for Disney and that ultimately this was a good thing for shareholders there's been other analysts on Wall Street that said look any proxy battle is not good for the stock in in the near term at least and Bob Iger has looked at this as largely a distraction from what.

The company needs to be focused on but do think it put the pressure on Disney I mean those earnings that we got a few weeks ago there was a ton of announcements if there wasn't that proxy battle hanging in the background I wonder if we would have heard as much as we did but I do think that was a strategic play on the part of Disney to.

Show look we can pull out all the steps if we need to and you're seeing shares uh react positively to all those changes right thanks so much Ally for all of your coverage of this ongoing saga you I don't know I don't think it's the end though Julie I don't know we'll see going to tell you you could take a little break but I guess not all right.

Let's turn now to the maer economy Federal Reserve chair Jerome pal speaking on the economy and the possible path of rate Cuts earlier this afternoon our Jennifer sha bger here with the details hi Jen hi Julie Federal Reserve chair jel doubling down on his belief that the outlook for inflation hasn't changed materially while reiterating.

That he expects to lower rates at quote some point this year these recent data do not however materially change the overall picture which continues to be one of solid growth a strong but rebalancing labor market and inflation moving down toward 2% on a sometimes bumpy path this is the second time that pal.

Has offered assurances on the outlook for inflation saying it hasn't materially changed after we got hotter readings on inflation in the first couple months of this year still he says right now it's quote too soon to determine whether whether those hot readings on inflation are just a bump and reiterated that officials don't.

Expect to lower rates until they gain greater greater confidence that inflation is indeed dropping decisively back towards their 2% Target now meanwhile pal went out of his way to make clear that the fed's policy decisions are not swayed by elections fed policy makers serve long terms that are not synchronized with.

Election Cycles our decisions are not subject to reversal by other parts of the government other than through legislation this Independence both enables and requires us to make our policy decisions without consideration of short-term political matters now pel did note to an audience during Q&A that if there were uh.

Concerns about the FED tailoring policy decisions for elections that they should look at prior transcripts of fomc policy meetings and guys I did just that I went back to the 2016 November policy meeting when Trump was running against Clinton very few mentions of the election only two members of the FED actually brought it up including at the time New York fed.

President Bill Dudley and they only brought it up in relation to how the election could impact the economy back to you I imagine the the subtext is not captured in those transcripts but it was probably present true very true joh all right thanks so much much our Jennifer shanberg treasury yields stabilizing from earlier losses after fed share pal.

Said he still expects rate Cuts this year though noting more progress is needed on inflation because before those moves can begin joining us now is yena sheta BNP parba senior us Economist yena it's always great to see you thanks so much for being here um so I think the markets are kind of pleasure thanks the markets are kind of trying to figure out.

Whether to take pal at his word at this point right we have seen the market pricing in a lower chance than previously that the FED would begin in June you got Rafael Bostic saying maybe it'll just be one cut this year and not until the fourth quarter how do you put all of that together so Powell just basically left.

It up to the data to decide and we've been getting some strong data uh recently so think about not just uh you know the ISM Manufacturing Index a couple of days ago but uh last Friday we received quite strong data on consumer spending so everybody was focused on inflation readings but the report the PC report we received last Friday also uh.

Showed a significant Rebound in consumer spending for services in the months of February so that report actually confirmed that uh spending in January uh was uh weighed on by weather related factors and uh the strength consumer strength is still present so putting it all together consumer spending ISM Manufacturing Index uh going above 50.

Break given level and even today the ism Services data was relatively strong the the decline was driven by uh Supply deliveries which is actually a positive things suggesting that uh Supply chains are healing so all of this positive data telling us that the economy is doing just fine despite the fact that the rates are so uh relatively high and uh.

That is continuing so but something very interesting Powell um reiterated at least five times today was supply side factors supply side factors so he's talking about supply side factors that are pushing economic growth uh to much higher than we think uh where the potential growth is but that does not preclude inflation from subsiding and he.

Reiterated that again and again today in today's speech so our projection is for uh three Cuts this year uh in line with the median dot uh at the latest FC meeting starting in June so does that mean Elena you still you you obviously do you agree with pal then when he said today talking about inflation he sees this kind of bumpy road back down to his.

His Target of 2% even with L on what we're seeing in Commodities right now sure Commodities is uh a risk factor here I would say so that would that could percolate uh into core inflation so uh whether it is core Goods or even core Services uh which include like hotel prices travel uh aairs and such so but.

It will probably take a little bit of time and these are not these these things are very easily identifiable so Commodities uh commodity prices can go up and down and the FED is very well aware of that that's why they track core inflation after all so I think we could see a little bit of of in impact on core prices but uh they're very easily.

Identifiable the FED is particularly interested in core inflation in super ore so things that uh exclude uh volatile components and you know wage inflation is what really matters and uh we're going to get another report uh this Friday and we are expecting deceleration in the pace of wage gains so like average early earnings will.

Likely um decline growth in year-over-year Pace will decline um in in the upcoming report so sort of uh again emphasizing this idea of maybe a soft Landing or that the FED has achieved what it's set out to achieve yeah Elena you know so many um economists like yourself um or or just in general sort of Market pundits were.

Skeptical that the FED could achieve this in part because historically they have not um so it was a reasonable assumption what do you think was the the sort of X Factor here well well uh yeah so historically it's very rare uh and that's why the Fed chair has been so cautious uh you know calling a victory here but I think it's.

Quite possible and um you know supply side factors could help us uh really achieve that so you we have seen quite significant growth in Immigration in the last couple of years we could still see that um you know uh following this year so we may still have some uh growth without an increase in unemployment rate at least uh this year who knows what.

Happens in 2025 it's the outcome is quite binary there but I would say that uh there's a very good chance that this year we will see a little bit more of the same even though growth could decelerate to a more normal level uh as rebalancing in the labor market continues yes we shall see Elena thank you so.

Much we're just getting started here on Market domination coming up the latest iteration of our series goodbye or goodbye we'll get investor Insight on two stocks to help you make the best choices for your portfolio plus a brutal day for beauty stocks or breaking down the warning that's Weighing on shares across the sector plus Disney's Bob Iger.

Beating out Nelson pelts in that 10th shareholder vote so what is next for the entertainment Empire we'll discuss in the next hour much more Market domination on the other side of the break.

sh let's check in on some of our top calls of the day NM has initiated coverage on.

Sofi with a buy rating and set a price target of $10 per share so it's interesting Julie there aren't actually too many bulls on Sofi um in fact six buys 10 holds and for sales is what I see but a new one NM does initiate coverage they're bullish company they says uh offers the right mix of growth and profits say they view Sofi as a.

Long-term winner in the digital lending and Neo banking space due to its focus on Prime and super Prime consumers they also note uh Sofi does of course possess a full banking line license they say that means Superior unit economics in their opinion versus some of their Rivals yeah that that full Bank license is one of the reasons that they say that.

Sofi has quote effectively built a better Mouse trp as a digital lending platform and Neo Bank um so that's kind of the the the overall moniker that they give to them uh Kyle Peterson and the team over um at NM initiating coverage on digital lending overall and it's interesting here they say like what do how do we think of digital lending what.

Exactly is it they said it's a mix of fintech companies who are leveraging technology to extend credit to consumers or businesses rather than you know traditional banks that have branches and lend in that way and they also said it's tough to figure out what the total addressable market for this is but they ballpark it at around $5 trillion for.

The consumer credit market so that's what they're looking at overall um and they're doing that rating on Sofi they also have a hold on a firm and a Buy on money Lion in that same space yeah it's been rough going for SOI so far the see the stocks down about 25% but cud Ed thinks that's that's an opportunity to Pile in yeah all right let's talk about.

UPS as well that stock is also moving after receiving a ratings upgrade from Redburn Atlantic the share is up about 1 and a half% Oliver Holmes the analyst they're upgrading it to buy from hold maintaining the price Target at $180 a share basically says the company's at or close to trough Revenue volume margin and share price levels.

There's been some interesting action as of late because um UPS um just re uh announcing recently about the new um USPS contract right but the it didn't benefit FedEx fell but UPS fell as well but the company is reporting earnings soon yeah UPS you know it was kind of I mean obviously a challenging 20123 the you know labor negotiations with the.

Teamsters and they did did get that deal done but obviously that meant Rising labor cost but clearly team at Redburn SE sees better days ahead they also in their opinion when UPS kind of recently announced um these kind of new three-year Financial targets the team air thinks these are compelling and remember UPS said they plan to increase.

Sales by about 7% between 23 and 2026 and operating profit margins they expect to reach 133% and and the team here at redb thinks this this is all good news the stock is down about 20% over the past 12 months down about 20% guess what FedEx has done it's up about 20% so it's interesting the mirror image um earnings coming up.

On April 23rd so that'll be the next Catalyst to potentially watch all right moving on goodbye goodbye coming up next stay tuned after the break.

A n.

it's a big noisy Universe of stocks out there welcome to goodbye or goodbye our goal to help cut through that noise to navigate the best moves for your portfolio and today we're taking a look at the surge in cyber crime attacks expected to cost companies more than10 trillion dollar each year by 2025 that's.

According to research firm cyber security Venture so what's the right way for investors to play it right now I'm here with Kevin M Chief investment officer at henan and Walsh great to see you Kevin thanks for coming in than for having of course so let's get to your Ry stock and that is crowd strike so this is a stock that's already been doing.

Pretty well this year we have seen it benefit reported earnings and row on the back of that so let's get to your buy case here you think it is leveraging AI in cber security absolutely and what's been lost in all this AI Euphoria is the critical importance of cyber security the glue that holds the whole technology puzzle together but AI can be used for.

Good and AI can be used for bad one of the bad areas is clearly cyber crimes and crowd strikes is one of the few companies that's actually leveraging AI through machine learning to help thwart AI powered cyber attacks and you made the stats before excellent points 10 a half trillion dollars cyber crime costs are estimated to increase to.

Annually by the end of 2025 and it's further predicted that roughly 45% of all companies will experience some form of a Cyber attack by the end of 2025 crowd strike can help prevent those attacks interesting okay and I mentioned what we've seen in terms of some of the Catalyst from their earnings reports and as you point out they've been above.

Expectation knocking the cover off the ball clearly so far their last uh quarter reported above expectations in terms of revenues and earnings they actually hit $3 billion for the first time in terms of annualized Revenue and I don't see them stopping from here and the stock has done well uh it we've not only SE the shares gone up but we've.

Seing free cash flow also inve free cash flow is incredibly important to a portfolio manager like myself what does it mean they manage their balance sheet well they have cash flow to actually engage in other potential Acquisitions they could actually Institute a dividend I'm not saying that they will but they could and they could also higher quality.

Talented people that can help them further invest in AI of course we always like to talk about what potential risks are and in this case the stock performance is part of the risk perhaps right the threeyear performance that we pointed out it's very strong for your performance but from a risk perspective does that then stretch the valuation it.

Has it has and hopefully earnings will start to catch up to that elevated price level that we've seen with that record growth we've seen the stock price over the last three years but they have a Ford P of 81 right now that's a little bit Rich for me to feel comfortable adding significantly to the position but I do believe crowd strike is certainly.

A good buy over the next 3 to 5 years and is this one you hold it's one that we hold within various portfolios at smart trust all right let's talk to the one about the one that you would not be interested in coincidentally Blackberry it's actually reporting after the close of trading today so it's a good time to be talking about it the stock has not.

Done well uh year-to date here and as you say it's had difficulty pivoting businesses it's actually talked about separating its cyber business from its uh Internet of Things business yes and we have to remember a Blackberry yes this is the Blackberry that was one one of the world's largest smartphone manufacturers they pivoted now to cyber.

Security and they're offering these enterprise-wide cyber Security Solutions to markets such as Automotive medical and Industrial but they've had a lot of difficulty in doing so right now Jules there's 3500 companies engaged in the cyber security industry this is a tough Market to break into and if you don't have the mass and the scale and the AI.

Oriented Solutions like crowd strike does it's going to be difficult road ahead for Blackberry and and in contrast with crowd strike when these guys have been coming out with numbers we have not seen positive surprises do you think that's going to be the case again when we hear from them five of the last quarters they've reported negative.

Earnings per share growth unfortunately it seems like this is going to be the sixth of the last eight quarters now as analysts are forecasting a loss of 3 cents per share they're not profitable revenues continue to come below expectations perhap they'll surprise us after the close today and you'll see a bump up in the stock price but it.

Doesn't look that way right now and then finally again drawing that contrast with crowd strike negative free cash flow here and the stock performance has been negative we looked at that year today performance and then here's that three-year performance not a great chart and certainly as a portfolio manager that's something that makes me want to.

Turn my head and say good buy I just see this as a very difficult field for Blackberry to really start to gain market share in they have negative free cash flow they can't engage in Acquisitions they can't invest in AI in a significant way so if there are only two cyber security name and we know there's 3500 I would certainly choose.

Crowd strike over blackberry and let's talk about what could go right for Blackberry you know maybe they could come out and beat on the numbers maybe they beat on revenues maybe they actually turn a profit this quarter again analysts don't believe so but perhaps they could and if they do if they have staying power in this area and.

They can provide some type of innovative enterprise-wide cyber security solution and move Beyond Automotive maybe there's hope for Blackberry and you know if they you succeed in splitting up the the two parts of the business does that unlock any value potentially possibly by by splitting it up someone becomes interested in acquiring one of those.

Solutions so they could use the cash to invest in the other area gotcha all right thanks so much Kevin all right let's sum up what you're telling investors here buy crowd strike based on its use of AI and cyber Security Solutions revenue and earnings growth and positive long-term performance on the other side you say avoid Blackberry.

For the challenges involved with pivoting from a smartphone maker to a cyber security provider its lack of earnings growth and that weak three-year performance as we saw on the chart thanks again appreciate it and thank you for watching goodbye or goodbye we'll be bringing you three new episodes episodes three times a week at 3:30 PM.

Eastern time now for the day's trending tickers as we draw closer to the closing bell on Wall Street an ugly day for Ulta beauty shares dropping as the company cautions on first quarter comparable sales and she's a broad-based Slowdown Anthony chumba loop capital markets managing director joining us right now Anthony is good to see you so you know.

It was interesting Anthony I saw some of your colleagues on the street in reaction to these headlines you know at least some of them said they were kind of surprised by what they heard investors were clearly you know surprised and disappointed what did you make of Anthony were you surprised I was a little surprised but.

The key word there is a little right um you know look the company reported fourth quarter results less than three weeks ago and they gave their guidance less than three weeks ago and so to have them come out today and say that you know that they're seeing this you know sort of broad-based slowdown um it's a little surprising the other thing you.

Know to consider is that you know they do have their toughest comparison in the first quarter so comstor sales are up 99.3% in the first quarter of last year and they were actually up 18% in the first quarter uh two years ago go so that is the most difficult year-over year and two-year stack comparison they're going to face all year so maybe.

This shouldn't have been all that surprising Anthony it's Julie here it sounds like the commentary was also not just about Ulta but in the category more broadly can you talk to us about what signs you're seeing there are you know why we might be seeing some weakening and Beauty well I mean once again I mean.

They gave guidance like three weeks ago so I don't think that anyone saw this coming and that's why the stock is down as much as it is and I think it's really too early to to tell if this is just a little bit of a air pocket in terms of demand or if this is kind of the canary and the coal mine um I I just think it's too early to to to tell that either way.

And in this space Anthony I'm just curious this name Ulta beauty what are their kind of competitive advantages if you were to spell them out Anthony oh absolutely they've got a ton of competitive advantages so you know look Ulta beauty um one of their big advantages is that have both Prestige Brands so the higher end Brands think.

Like a you know a Mac or a drunk elephant but then they have also those you know kind of mass Brands like the type of stuff that you'd find like L'Oreal um you know in a in a drugstore the most most um you know sort of beauty products retails have one or the other they don't have both another thing is that they also have spas in their stores.

And another thing is that their stores particularly relative to Sephora I mean they're just not as intimidating quite frankly for for the Shopper but one of the the most important competitive advantages from my perspective is their um Customer Loyalty program Al Al Beauty rewards used to be called Ultimate Rewards um you know we actually just had.

Ironically had a report out today in which we compared customer loyalty programs for all of our companies covered companies that have them and we thought that ala Beauty had the most compelling one and and it also becomes very important because one thing we found at least in terms of prestige beauty products and we've done work on.

This for a long time pricing is strictly at manufacturer suggested prices so in other words the same price you're going to pay at Ulta is what you're going to pay at nean Marcus at Nordstrom and Macy's at Sephora so it's sort of like okay if I'm going to pay the same price regardless of where where I go I'd rather go to somewhere where I can get.

Both The Prestige and the mass that's you know I can get you know my hair did if I decide I want to do that uh and I get all these uh loyalty loyalty uh uh program points uh and it's just a you know a pretty customer friendly environment yeah it's so it's as you say it's confounding I guess that this is happening I can't help but think of what.

We heard from pbh the other day obviously very different category right we're talking about apparel and shoes but they pointed out weakness in Europe but that doesn't help solve this conundrum because Ulta doesn't operate in Europe so I guess I guess you know does this imply anything about what we're seeing among American.

Choppers it certainly might um and part of the reason that I think that is that you know look I think that a lot lot of investors think of um beauty products as being discretionary right you know in other words gas prices are higher inflation's higher you know maybe I'm worried about losing my job I'll cut back I mean for that for all this Target.

Customer what they call the beauty Enthusiast these products are just not that discretionary right I mean you know she wakes up in the morning she takes a shower she has she puts her face on there's a whole sort of routine with a lot of different products involved she gets done for you know for the day maybe she's got a date once again there's a.

Whole routine before she even goes to bed there's a whole routine right uh and I think it's the type of thing where you're just not going to disrupt that unless you absolutely positively have to and so from that perspective yeah M maybe this you know maybe this should scare us but I I just you know look I'm loathed to you know draw too much or or.

To read too much into it I mean it's a very short period of time I think we need to get more data before we make a larger call about the state of the US consumer and Anthony just quickly here I believe You've Got A Hold rating on Ulta unless something has changed and it sounds like from what you're saying that's kind of where you are you you.

Need more information on this thing before you would dive in is that true more broadly of beauty as well so uh I mean full disclosure we do have a hold rating but we just downgraded the stock uh in mid-February it looks like we were pretty precent I mean and quite frankly we we downgraded purely on valuation we did not see this.

Coming so I don't want to you know make myself out like I'm you know some sort of Oracle um having said that you know because of all these you know inherent advantages that Ulta has given this violent you know pullback it's certainly more attractive to me because the other thing that we look we didn't talk about is the fact that ala Beauty has a.

Completely debt-free balance sheet they generate a ton of free cash well they generated about a billion dollars last year I think they'll probably generate a similar amount this year they buy back stock very aggressively and obviously it's going to be even more creative to earns per share at a much lower level and and and look I think that at some.

Point they may consider initiating a dividend which I think would be a massive positive Catalyst for the stock because suddenly you're opening yourself up to income investors so there's a lot to like here and you know this is definitely one where I'm going to be sharpening the pencil because this seems overdone to me Anthony great to have you.

On the show today thanks so much for joining us happy to do it taking a look now at shares of Intel that stock is sliding in today's trades the company reveals $7 billion in losses in its Foundry business for 2023 this comes as the company outlines new Financial framework that aligns with its.

Foundry operating model goals CF research senior Equity analyst Angelo Zeno joining us now to discuss Angelo it is good to see you so these numbers in The Foundry business um you know in 2023 Angelo they had they had sales of 18.9 billion but they they did lose 7 billion it looks like they're kind of seeing 2024 as the try Angelo I'm just first of.

All curious your first take on the numbers Angelo did anything surprise you no not necessarily I'd say as far as the numbers are concerned you know the seven billion number is a bit alarming but not necessarily a complete surprise we knew it was it was bleeding money um you know to begin with but you kind of look at the the numbers overall I mean.

Um 18.9 billion but that's essentially all kind of um you know internally related right it's it's products that are being um Intel generated in nature when you actually look at the actual revenue from external customers it is is only about $950 million or so so um that is the issue right now it's all about whether or not they can kind of get.

Those external customers um on hand and be able to kind of ramp that up here over the next couple years a big reason they are separating kind of this this Foundry business is to help kind of build trust um in terms of kind of get generating some of those external customers out there a and what do you think is the prognosis there angel I.

Mean some of your peers on the street are sort of skeptical that they can really build a a high percentage of external clients for The Foundry business yeah I mean listen we are skeptical as well I mean when you kind of think about when you look at the numbers that they' provided first off they've got five external C customers.

For uh at their 18a nanometer node which is going to be manufacturing ready by the end of this year it's going to kind of um you know culminate that five node in four-year kind of transition transition which you know they've done a great job with but when you kind of look ahead here and you look at some of the targets they provided I think you know.

They still said by 2030 um only 30% of that kind of Foundry capacity or revenue on The Foundry side of things will come from external customers so it's still going to be the the minority there I think you know the biggest disappointment on our side I think as far as the news here was concern is that Foundry business isn't going to hit kind.

Of operating margin break even until 2027 so that essentially implies that in 2025 and 2026 um it's going to probably be a slower ramp than I think some out there um including ourselves originally anticipated and if that's the case um again this is one of those situations where investors are going to need to continue to be patient it's the story.

That Intel continues to tell and again in this type of Market investors don't want to be patient especially you know within a semiconductor industry which um is getting a lot of interest on the AI side of things and what's Angel what's your rating on Intel right now were you were you at a hold we are at a hold recommendation what what would it take.

You Andre to get more bullish on the name you need to see yeah I mean I think it has more to do in terms of um who they can kind what kind of customer base they can get on The Foundry side of things and to what extent they can kind of start ramping that up I mean obviously you know we we've just kind of heard some of the Taiwan issues that.

That just developed overnight if we were to see something you know catastrophic uh or kind of game you know groundbreaking happen on the Taiwan side I think clearly that has positive implications on Intel side right in terms of their ability to kind of um get you know a greater customer base on that side of thing so there are a number of.

Things that can kind of get us more constructive on the stock but as far as kind of the the you know the way the market is evolving right now uh we continue to stay on the sidelines until kind of profitability starts to really improve on The Foundry side of thing um Angelo I'm glad you brought up um tsmc a Taiwan semiconductor um because I was.

Looking at some of the numbers today uh you know Intel just reporting nearly $19 billion in The Foundry business TS M's sales last year were about $69 billion so just gives you an idea of the scope of Intel's ambition here and compared with the leader but I do wonder how you think about the risk not so much from an earthquake which it seems as though.

Taiwan semi is saying its operations are not going to be that much disrupted or at least that seems to be the perception but there's also potential political disruptions that could happen how do you think about that risk and and how it would affect both Taiwan II the rest of the industry yeah so I mean we think about that a lot.

I'd say it's kind of the Big Black Swan event that could potentially take place within the semiconductor industry and you know within the kind of the broader economy to be honest with you but um you know the way we kind of think about it right now is um it's something that we think potentially ends up happening in the sense that um China will potentially.

Look to take over um Taiwan in some capacity at some point in the future I think that's a real risk out there I think from a timing perspective we think that um hopefully years away and it it kind of happens in a matter um that isn't kind of um you know destructive in nature but um that said I mean it's going to have implications out there for.

Uh the broader semiconductor industry whether it be the likes of Qualcomm Nvidia AMD which are some of U you know Taiwan semi's biggest customers out there so it's something the the industry needs to prepare for and and it's a big reason why we're kind of seeing some of kind of the you know capacity expansion plans that have kind of been announced.

Here over the last year or two across Western markets not only in the US but also in Europe so um that's why Intel is extremely important in nature now that said um again longer term time Horizon in terms of when we think this potentially happens and um for Intel if that were to happen sooner than later um you know clearly it would be more of a.

Boon for them but at this point in time kind of G again given the cor structure of Intel relative to that of Taiwan semi that's why Taiwan semi will continue to continue to continue to have the lon share um of The Foundry Market in the foreseeable future right well it's a good reminder though of the big picture and why Intel is doing what it's doing.

Thanks so much Angelo good to see you great thanks having me on the other side of the break we're taking a closer look at all things Autos in today's investor Playbook stay tuned more Market domination on the other side.

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now with just over 10 minutes left to the closing bell on Wall Street we're looking at how to navigate the rough ride that the EV industry has been on as of late in today's Yahoo finance playbook for more we want to welcome in Brian spanheimer gabelli funds portfolio.

Manager as well as Al root senior writer at Baron thank you both for joining us so Brian um let's start with you obviously we know that the EV Market has slowed down right Tesla is sort of the poster child for that um you know I guess is there any other case to be made now about when growth could be maybe re accelerating yeah I think um and first.

Of all Julie thank you for having me on I know we have a little bit of a disconnect on the um on the audio side here but um clearly as you mentioned we we're in a situation where EVS have fallen into kind of a a middle period where we've seen a early adoption primarily in coastal uh Coastal States um where uh tax incentives have helped.

Boost those sales and now we're kind of in this period where the rest of the country needs to follow suit and um you know with about 50% of the US not having garages and range anxiety being a real thing um it's going it's it's really a time will tell sort of scenario for the Ed Market to create a great amount of uncertainty and certainly as we've seen.

With uh the the automakers pushing out some plans for uh some of the the massive amounts of capex that are needed to build out for this expected growth um it's really in the next the next three to five years have a a lot of um um a lot of unknowns that that we are we're going to live through and um so we're looking for for other areas within the.

Auto space um to to potentially participate Al same question to you I'm just you what do you think explains the the slowdown in EV demand that we've seen Al and what do you think maybe re accelerates it uh I think a few things um one of which is you know you can almost go back to the Euphoria of 2001 2002 when Tesla could sell anything it.

Could make it could charge anything and I almost think that sent a false signal to the industry I can make $50,000 EVS I can make $60,000 EVs and they'll fly off the shelves the metaphorical shelves dealer lot um and and what we found now is you know we have a a Dar of Cheaper EVS in this country it's not the problem in China problem in China is there's too.

Many EVS fighting for market share that that that's been an issue for Tesla here we don't have $25,000 $30,000 EVS plus Brian's range anxiety and some of those challenges in the middle of the country with adoption and you see q1 q1 sales still grew they're up about 8% year-over-year for all electric vehicles but they're not even anywhere close to.

The to the dreams of 21 and 22 and so I guess Brian the question is then do you make your decisions in the Auto industry based on overall sales right do you look at strategy for hybrids which have seen this Resurgence for example yeah I think it's it's a good question we look at the entire ecosystem whether it's the 16 or so million units.

That are going to get sold this year on the new side whether it's the 37 to 40 million units that are going to get sold within the used vehicle market and that's been a really big challenge for the past three years and then there's about 290 million vehicles on the road in the US so we we take really kind of a look at the entire Market but speaking.

Just about the new vehicle Market what we know is whether those vehicles are going to be internal combustion engine Vehicles sold whether they're going to be hybrids whether they're going to be electric vehicles they are they're going to need to be serviced and I think customer engagement and customer connection is going to be really.

Important so we look in areas like the the automotive dealers as ways to be really uh propulsion agnos IC um with great cash flow generative businesses where um whether a uh an automaker outside of let's say Tesla that that does not have dealerships U whether uh whether they sell an ice vehicle a hybrid or or an EV um those dealerships.

Are going to be there for uh for the warranty period and help Drive customer engagement and Sh a wallet I like that propulsion agnostic sorry go ahead be on a t-shirt Al um I wanted your take on hybrids too because we got that Ford q1 sales today and it was interesting because you saw hybrid sales I they were up like more than 40% what explains that.

Interest in hybrids is it is it pricing charging both yeah Ford uh 42% I think I think for the industry up 28 beat or about 20 beat uh all EV sales for the quarter um I think a couple of things one is you you you see some of these infrastructure and you know the what what Brian just talked about and it's almost like you know the hybrid industry.

At free advertising you go into dealership I'd like to be all electric and then some of the reality set in you say well you know this hybrid is cheaper and I get 50 60 m a gallon I'm still doing something good for the environment so they've sort of enjoyed a bit of a Renaissance um so I I think that's part of it I think that you know maybe two.

Years ago we thought that oh hybrids are a bridge technology to all electrics I think now the narrative will start to form like hybrids will always exist you know the and every you know traditional car probably have some hybrid option and all Electrics so hybrids um you probably got no love when evoria was at its peak and then you know the reality the.

Situation they're pretty good cars I I also have to wonder Brian you know you've had this push back from the petroleum industry right saying we're going to need fossil fuels for a long time and I wonder if as that message has gotten louder consumers maybe hear that and say okay I don't have to give up my gas car right now I can still you know.

Rely on this fuel that isn't going anywhere yeah I think you know with car density about 2.2 per household in the US you may see a situation where for a very long period of time um we have a a family car that is electric that has more or less a defined radius that is used for uh family trips in town and then there's an internal combustion.

Engine vehicle that um eliminat a lot of that range anxiety and speaks to the idea that the petroleum industry probably rightly so is saying is is that um fueling stations are going to be around and people want to be mobile and they don't want to we've all seen the um you know the the unfortunate uh pictures of Tesla's lining up waiting for fast.

Charging stations um along uh along California highways and you know those are those are unique situations of course but they they're impactful it relates to Consumer behavior um so I I think I think we're going to be in a situation where full EV adoption may not be nearly as fast as uh what prognosticators originally anticipated.

And we're going to go back five and 10 years to to make those claims but um it's it's a slower growth period Brian Al thank you guys both so much for joining the show today appreciate it while we're wrapping up today's market domination don't go anywhere we've got you covered with all the action fing the closing bell stay tuned.

Tuned for Market domination overtime.

M yeah now there's the closing bell on Wall Street and now it is Market domination overtime.

We're joined by Jared blicky to get you up to speed on the action from today's session so let's start with where the major averages ended up the doubt little change very slightly to the downside here off by 43 points about a tenth of 1% here after the selling pressure that we had the other day not really seeing a lot of follow through in today's session.

Because the Dow wasn't down much and the S&P 500 was up about a tenth of 1% the n stq up about a quarter of 1% and also in a sharp reversal from what we saw yesterday the vix here not really going much of anywhere and below 15 so not seeing that sort of concern being expressed in the markets here we of course heard from Fed chair J Powell who.

Seemed to emphasize the same thing that he's been emphasizing that we're going to get rate Cuts later this year but that the committee needs to see more data before it's comfortable doing so Jared's got a closer look at today's sector action hey Jared yes uh thank you for that let's go to the sector action right here on the Wi-Fi interactive.

Where we have communication services in the lead uh we'll get to the NASDAQ 100 in a second but energy materials Industrials Tech that rounds out the outperformers that you see on the top line there now what's in the red Consumer Staples that is down over 1% and also utilities Healthcare and financials a little bit less in the red.

There um before I proceed here I just want to go to my leaders page here at cannabis is is having an outsize day MJ that Harvest ETF up almost 10% after that we have oil up uh 2% that says WT crude oil holds above $85 a barrel uh we also have gambling solar momentum home builders small caps and IPOs that's the top row there to the downside it was.

Actually retail xrt uh that is The Biggest Loser there now I said that communication Services was the biggest gainer a lot of that is just meta that's up 1.88% although alphabet uh is also helping up 23% you can see kind of a mix board for the Mega caps a little bit more green than red and the only outlier I'm really seeing here is Intel trading.

To the downside 8% Josh Jared Let's uh talk Spotify pull up that chart because that was a nice pop in today's trade for that name according to Bloomberg citing sources Spotify could raise prices by1 to2 dollars per month in five markets including the UK and Australia by the end of April potential us price increase coming later this year this would be to.

Help cover the cost of Audi book you can see investors liked that headline also reportedly Spotify plans to make the current 11 a month plan a basic tier that offers music and podcast only where subscribers would then pay I guess extra for audiobooks Mark mahaney over at RBC now he's a fan of Spotify rates an app or form he crunched the numbers he says.

Listen if this headline is right if this price increase is carried out broadly could potentially contribute 1 billion by his math of incremental Revenue 2025 that would be about 5% upside to his estimates and close to 300 million mahaney says in incremental eida that would be about 15% upside to his estimates Julie and they don't make.

Money so they need to do something they have not made money numbers right uh they haven't turned a profit since they went public back in 2018 so um this obviously tells you a little bit about the motivation that has not and has not discouraged investors one bit look at that's stock is a monster it's up 50% already this year up more than 100% over.

The past 12 months all right we move on a rocky session on Wall Street with stocks closing today near the Flatline Joshua Schaefer is here with a look at some of the key themes from today's Action Joshua yeah Josh I think inflation was the big story today again with specifically of course we had Jay Powell talking extensively about.

Inflation for a long period of time today but also we had more data out on inflation and since apparently the prices paid index from ism is the new thing we all love to follow and that was our big Market narrative this week when you think about what we saw earlier from the prices paid index in terms of manufacturing data that was hot right.

And we were all worried about inflation and goods inflation potentially spiking there but this morning we got the services index and the prices paid there prices paid hit its lowest level since March 2020 in the services index and last time I checked the thing we talk about more with inflation is services so economists largely react reacted.

Positively to this news saying that this is good sign it's a good sign for super core inflation which we hear the FED talk about a lot and that being on track to coming back down to 2% and I guess maybe my prevailing takeaway putting those two together would just be bumpy we're not going to get clean seriously though like we're not going to get clean.

Data right if we're going to sit here and put a microscope on every little print it's not going to keep telling you a consistent story and so maybe just zoom out and maybe listening to what Jerome Powell is saying about we think it's coming down eventually it's going to be bumpy is rather intuitive right now so he says it's going to be he.

Sticks to his narrative it's going to be bumpy but you know on our way back down to my 2% Target despite though Josh even what we're seeing the Commodities complex yeah I mean Commodities are spiking right Commodities are ripping when you look at basically across the board right jar just hit on oil look at gold I think it hit another alltime high.

At some point today silver spiking copper spiking and what's been interesting to me has been that's been the trade we've seen in equities too right energy again leading today wasn't the leading sector but it was one of the leading sectors extending its lead for the year even when you look inside uh industry like Industrials which was also.

Up today some of the stocks that have been up there really do sort of relate to Commodities in that sense so it's been interesting to kind of see investors chase that trade a little bit go into some of those commodity specific sectors and one thing I wanted to highlight guys in energy specifically was Data track did an interesting uh.

Little an analysis on this the other day they posted this yesterday morning data track research great team over there and what they highlighted was that energy is still kind of chasing the S&P 500 when you take a look at its performance over the last 100 days the trailing returns so you can see the S&P 500 there is below the zero level meaning it's still.

Lagging like we're talking a lot about energy outperforming this year and yes it is if you look at a six-month of the sectors it's the worst performing sectors though right and so data track essentially making the point that if this bid in energy is real which they think it is it probably has more room to run because a lot of people when you.

Talk to different oil analysts right now the argument for oil prices would be if anything they might go up and that would also be good for the energy sector J pal says well that's not necessarily going to feed through into inflation that's going to be the main the key to see whether it does feed through and with that just if it does feed through it.

Would be interesting to see how consumers sort of react to that right because we know the FED likes to dismiss it but at some point you would think it probably impacts things like gas prices and maybe then it hurts I guess how people are feeling about inflation we like to talk about that maybe or maybe it doesn't truly I don't know I don't.

Know we'll find out thanks Josh appreciate it well Sher Redstone reportedly reaching a deal to sell her controlling stake in Paramount Global Ali Canal is here with the latest really for real this time well we'll see nothing said in stone yet but if you take a look at the stock it closed up more than 15% today on the heels of this.

Potential deal which which is now being reported by multiple outlets and based on this reporting Paramount has agreed to enter exclusive murder discussions with skyce media for 30 days as these two sides attempt to work out the terms of a deal but it's worth noting that the way Sky Dan wants to structure this will be a bit complicated essentially Sky Dan.

Would purchase sh Redstone stake in National amusements which is the holding company that operates Paramount Global and owns about 80% of the voting shares of Paramount from there would then merge Sky Dan and its studio with Paramount Studio so sort of a two-step deal there that would essentially create a media Powerhouse that's at least the Hope here.

Uh Sky Dan has worked with Paramount Global before on different projects including top gun Maverick but I think the complex nature of this deal could be an issue Paramount has an independent board of directors that's basically talking to all these different potential biders here and the goal of that committee is to make sure that a deal is.

Good for all Paramount shareholders not just National amusements so that could potentially complicate things pricing is also going to be another question mark considering there are other players in this space here our parent company Apollo Global they earlier had offered 11 billion for Paramount Studio but the Wall Street Journal reporting that just.

This past weekend they upped that bid to 26 billion for the entire company including debt so that could perhaps feed into what we see from Sky Dan media it's just crazy because this company has a market cap of just over 9 billion it got a little bit of a boost considering the share action that we saw earlier today and you're having these private.

Equity investors these different biders offering more than $20 billion doar for this company but again it all comes down to what Char Redstone wants to do here yeah all right story continues thank you Ally appreciate it Disney's current board to remain intact after successfully fending off activist investor Nelson pelts but that does not.

Mean the house and mouse is in the clear Disney is still facing a checklist of concerns it has to address for more let's get to Laura Martin needam and Company senior entertainment and internet analyst Laura is good to see you you know Laura listen it was always going to be tough for Nelson pels to get this done when the stocks working like.

This I mean it's up 30% this year do you give Nelson pelts any credit for that lore for that stock move in the sense that maybe he was there putting the pressure on rattling the cages and and help focusing Disney's leadership yes I think it was very important to Bob Iger the CEO of the Disney Company not to have Nelson pelts on his board but to.

Do that he had to convince the one-third shareholders that were retail investors that he was the right guy to lead this company and therefore he instituted a lot of cost cutting faster to profitability on streaming a lot of things that Nelson pelts would have done had he gotten on the board Bob Iger has already done which is why the shares are.

Up 35% and why Bob Iger bought the opt bought his 12 directors me he did the right thing to win this battle I will just tell you that Nelson P spent 25 million but he made a billion dollars on the $3.5 billion doar Stak he owns because the shares Disney Shares are up 35% year to date which is triple the market so he effectively got what he.

Wanted even though he didn't get what he wanted exactly he sort of won the battle but he he lost the battle but he sort of won the war if the billionaires war is about making money he won that one I guess that's a big part of what the billionaires war is about in this case but that's said do you think Nelson pelts now withdraws do you think that he.

Continues his activism in some form and that that ends up continuing to be a motivator for Disney so recall that also black WS that activist was in here value value act act was in here um so that I think activists will continue to circle the Walt Disney Company unless the share price keeps going up so I think the pressure on Bob.

Iger over the until 26 when his contract expires will stay really tight I don't know if it's Nelson Pelt specifically but I think activists are circling this company and they only are kept at Bay if the share price keeps going up Laura one big issue in this drama and you know this was succession right in fact some of the folks who sided with Mr pelts I'm.

Thinking like ISS for example in part L you know they did so because they thought all right Nelson's going to join the board and this time the board's actually to get this right how do you see that issue specifically playing out right you 31% of um voters voted for Nelson pelts and he only owned like 3% of the sharff so all the rest were.

Actual people voting for him on this issue of succession that they don't think the Walt Disney Company will be successful finding a successor and frankly based on the track record they might be right but that is going to be a critical question it's an important question but not an urgent question the Urgent question is how do you cut cost.

Or drive growth at the revenue line for the Walt Disney Company from an investment time frame of 2024 and 2025 those are the most important issues that Bob AER has to deal with Bob iger's contract ends in 26 so succession starts in 2027 whether you pick the right guy or the right girl or not so I would say there are more urgent issues that Disney.

Has to deal with um based on its competitive backdrop But ultimately in 2027 they better have an answer to succession that is better than the last answer they had so it sounds like from what you're saying Laura it's not as though the the issues that pelts was bringing up were invalid why do you think in the end he didn't win was it.

That Disney that its full court press was successful it you know using its IP to convince shareholders to vote on its behalf was it that Iger was already making the Right Moves what what do you think went on there I think there's three things the Disney brand is Iconic and to have hostility in the boardroom is really off brand for Disney too 95%.

Of shareholders voted for Bob Iger which is 100% of shareholders that weren't Nelson pelts so there is a lot of faith in Bob Iger as a leader that's the second thing and then third Nelson pelts has no entertainment experience he you know did a hosle on PG and Luna lever but he has no entertainment experience so it's not helpful to have him on the.

Board other than as a Rabel Rouser and I think that works against him and Laura a final question to listen um I mean bottom line Lor you do have a buy on the name you're a Believer what are the catalysts ahead lore that you see they're going to move this name even still higher right so I really like the ESPN.

Warner Brothers Fox joint venture is going after 10 million cord cutters that currently Disney earns no money from so I like that as a catalyst I really like streaming losses are now gonna they're going to hit profitability in the September quarter instead of the December quarter and I definitely talk to a lot of investors who are skeptical.

About that ever happening so if it happens I think that is a catalyst for the stock continued margin expansion at the parks parks are now a third of Revenue and three4 of profitability so Parks have to continue to do well to drive earnings for share growth and I expect that they will so I would say those are the three key things I'm.

Looking for in 24 and 25 to keep these shares moving to the upside Laura if you don't mind I'm G to call a bit of an audible here and ask you about Paramount because we're still just getting the news here that it looks like there's some Pro progress being made in that do you think that we're going to get a deal here seeing some headlines here that.

Apollo just reportedly offered 26 billion doll I mean what do you think the price is finally that gets it done and who wins so I really thought your point was insightful that the more complicated the deal the less likely it gets done and this Sky Dan deal with the two different pieces and they're buying the parent and.

Then they have to merge with the subsidiary that's public all of that feels complicated Apollo will just do a deal for the public entity everybody gets treated fairly fewer lawsuits so I sort of think um I so this 26 billion just to be clear is nine billion of equity plus 14 of debt which gets you to 23 billion and then they're.

Paying a three billion premium which is pretty low actually for typical media companies that little premium there but I would say my gut bill is and this will not be the consensus you today is Apollo wins not Sky Dan too complicated a deal just to your point all right we're going to come back to you once it gets done and see if you're right Laura always.

Great to get your Insight on the media industry really appreciate it thanks bye bye still to come the CDC recently confirming an uncommon occurrence of a human infection with the bird flu we're going to speak to the director of the CDC Mandy Cohen about the risk on the other side stick around we've got more Market domination overtime coming.

up e.

n now the labor force continued to show strength without overheating the economy.

That has been confounding many economists until really more recently the answer May lie in Immigration for more we've got RSM Chief Economist Joe Bruce whis Joe it's great to have you here good to see you guys so this is something we touched upon the last time you were here but I don't think it's gotten enough attention because there is.

This question of how can we keep seeing the kinds of jobs gains that we are seeing month over month with the household survey showing sort of different numbers and inflation not re accelerating yeah immigration's explanation essentially if you look at the household survey it's just not picking up the contribution of both.

Legal and undocumented workers to the overall labor Supply right where I live in Texas it was really impossible to get anything done in construction you couldn't get a seat at a restaurant right the restaurants would be open but they didn't have enough workers right to to serve the tables all of a sudden it turned on a dime in about.

6 months and it's pretty clear what it was right it's it's it's the role of immigration which traditionally we economists understand this is just that the social and political polarization around this kept us from really talking about it but now it's undeniable so in that household survey they're severely underestimating on the establishment.

Side when we look at average hourly earnings right it's probably overestimating the the the the rise in wages it's actually probably a lot less that's why what that's why one we're seeing the increase in overall activity better growth and we think boosting productivity so the kind of the low level of employment and low inflation.

Joe you're seeing in part because immigration do you see that continuing that Trend well we do now obviously we're going to have an election here impact well that could effectively shut some of it off right especially on the legal side I don't necessarily think it's going to do much for some of the undocumented but the the truth is when.

You think about where the need was you know we never did get back to the level of uh employment in Leisure and Hospitality right you think about the the jobs in construction right there's not enough people to fill those jobs my sense is you're probably going to see it bleed in some of the manufacturing sector because we're hearing about how.

You know National ass manufacturing put out a very persuasive piece this week they're going to be short workers going forward in a significant way right so we're going to at one point need to have a more adult rational conversation around immigration policy and the vital contribution it plays to the filling the needs in our labor force and providing.

An Avenue for much stronger growth and better productivity if we see a trump presidency and he does clamp down further on immigration is there a case to be made that that could be inflationary yes in general but we want to be careful because we just won't know what that looks like until that policy is put in place just how stringent it is.

And if they really close the borders that sort of thing we just don't know and then the other question is from an economic perspective because there are some negative KnockOn effects from the flood of migration we you know Josh pointed out in our meeting earlier today you have Eric Adams the the mayor of New York City calling it a crisis small.

Towns and large across the country grappling with this so how do you sort of weigh that so well you know as an economist in capital markets you know professional we're likely to look at it just in terms of the bottom line right does it boost overall employment does it meet needs does it facilitate growth we would say yes and over the long term.

Immigration's clearly positive but in the short term there are going to be disruptions in some major metros and some smaller burgs that will add to the government cost uh the balance sheet of the government so yeah you know you can't it's not good to sit here and say that's not happening because it is you can see it here in the city there are.

Hotels Uptown that you I know that we can see them living yeah sure all of that's there it's it's part of the rich Mosaic of the country it always has been right it's just that right now we're in a position where we have a hard time speaking to one another rationally about these ideas and more often than not they just send into shouting matches.

And no one really addresses the issue which is we need a rational policy around immigration to avoid this much more immediately Joe big job report on Friday let me get the Joe brellis forecast what are you looking for 215,000 increase in total employment we think 3.8% on the unemployment rate we think.

3/10 of a percent increase in average hourly earnings and 4.1% on a year ago basis what I would what I'm expecting to see is a downward revision on last month right and what will what the the the the net net will be hiring continues to be solid albeit at a slower pace which again is what you want to see if you're a forward-looking policy maker who.

Thinks well the federal funds rate is is restrictive and you want to cut that um and Joe you know you recently wrote a piece where you talked about the 32 condition as being sort of Ideal for the FED here can we first of all explain what the 3-2 condition is and secondly can we achieve it so what what it is is that we think that the uh nou the.

Natural in or the non- accelerative inflation unemployment mment is around 3.6% meaning we can have an unemployment rate between 3.5 and 4% that does not result in an outsized increase in inflation meaning we can have price stability which I Define as a uh an inflation rate somewhere between two and two and a half% so the 32 scenario we.

Just go back a few years that would have been thought just not possible but because of a unique Confluence events Confluence of events that has to do with graphic changes there's only well basically there's 1.4 jobs available for every one person who's looking we're short workers we're getting this Boost from immigration we've had 14 straight.

Quarters where our client base is increasing outlays on Capital expenditures as productivity enhancing software equipment electrial property productivity is increasing and we haven't even scratched the surface on what artificial intelligence and Quantum is going to do for us therefore we think we're moving into a very sweet spot here.

For the economy where we can grow a little faster we can maintain low unemployment and we can maintain low inflation amidst Rising productivity this is where you want to be and remember folks out there it's not just the jobs report this week it's over the next six weeks we're going to get those earning reports.

Productivity equals profits those earning reports are likely to look I think much better than even what we would have thought three months ago all right let's let's end it on that very optimistic note Joe as well thank you Joe you always good to see you Trump or Biden who will be better for the economy yah Finance his very own Rick Newman has.

Some thoughts Rick hey guys uh well it's not that simple I mean and I'm trying to change the framing here a little bit because uh everybody's focusing on Trump or Biden but what also matters quite a lot is what happens in Congress um because that's going to determine whether either Trump or Biden uh becomes president with.

The ability to pass the legislation that he wants or without the ability to pass the legislation with e month so so there are basically four scenarios when you think of it this way which is uh Trump wins the presidency and he has either a full Republican Congress or a split Congress and the same with Biden he wins either with a full Democratic uh.

Democratic Congress or with a split Congress and I think the quietest um scenario for markets would be if Biden won with a split Congress that would mean um probably no uh big no new big changes under Biden he's all right already signed a couple of huge laws um and um you know Republicans would be able to check him so there would not be.

That much um the one thing with Trump uh there's some things Trump would probably do that do not require Congressional legislation that everybody has to keep in mind first is more tariffs especially on Chinese Imports you guys were just talking about immigration he says he's going to shut down the Border he might also fire uh Jerome Powell the the uh.

Federal Reserve chair and bring in somebody new so those are some things Trump could do without Congress but even if Trump got elected with a split Congress um there wouldn't be a lot of legislation uh that would that would get through Congress that Trump wants the big thing we're going to have to deal with in 2025 is the expiration of the uh.

2017 tax cuts for individuals and that is uh going to matter a lot on the makeup of Congress so um that is why you need to watch what's going to happen with Congress you know Rick it's interesting because as investors you're often taught you know split government is is is a good thing it's what you want it's what you should root for but now.

We're in a situation Rick where you know the 118th Congress you've seen this they it's described as the least productive in decades I mean what does it mean for investors when you actually go from split government to just kind of what feels like to a lot of people dysfunctional government you know so every time.

There's some major change in government policy and we have seen this uh you know Biden for example signed the uh that huge package of green energy incentives in 2022 and all the anals are trying to figure out who are the winners and losers um because that's going to help some businesses and hurt other businesses and anybody everybody's.

Trying to figure out where what's what's going to happen when the dust settles same with the Trump tax cuts in 2017 the Affordable Care Act was another one uh medic Medicare the the government being able to negotiate Medicare prices affects pharmaceutical companies so uh those are all big changes that cause disruption and even when Congress is.

Barely doing its job which is to keep the government function if you don't have those big um you know those big policy changes in the offing you don't have to constantly be figuring out who's going to win or lose from some new scenario and I would point out that in the five or six months when Congress was really dithering and you know we.

Just kept getting one they kept delaying that they're going to fund the government look what the stock market did I mean we've had this tremendous rally in the stock market since the last October the same period of time when Congress was really fumbling so um yeah I mean uh unless you have some massive emergency problem that needs attention.

Um you know less action in Washington often often is what uh financial markets want um Rick and and I always like to remind folks as well that you know in the 2017 election it was very difficult to predict what the market was going to do right and it sort of confounded 2016 excuse me and it did confound a lot of experts and so you know we're going to.

Be that's not going to stop us from talking about it from now until then but it is difficult to predict it's not going to stop investors from betting on the outcome either and to go back to 2016 I one of the big one of the hardest things to figure out was whether Trump was actually going to do the things he said he was going to do.

And to some extent he uh he did not so let's just go back to the tariffs because that was one thing that uh investors were very concerned about in 2016 and frankly should be concerned about in 2024 um so Trump said he would he preferred a a 45% tariff on everything made in China and he did not impose a 45% tariff he imposed tariffs.

That only range from 7.5% to 25% and he only imposed that on about half of what uh C comes in from China so the the net effect was only about 25% of what Trump said he was going to do so it was not as bad as the economist forecasted when they said well if we if we if we get this full Trump thing on all these trade Wars and stuff this is what's going to.

Happen happen um so maybe you can assume the same thing in 2024 that Trump says he wants a 60% tariff maybe it'll end up being a 20% tariff and maybe it won't go on toasters and uh computers that people are going to see the price hike right away but um you know we're going to be talking about this a lot more as we get closer to the election there are major.

Implications here for what's going to do well and what's not going to do so well in financial markets Rick always good to see you my friend thank you see you guys time now for to watch Thursday April 4th starting off at the FED five fed presidents speaking tomorrow throughout the day this coming after mixed commentary from fed officials today.

Atlanta fed president Rafael bosk saying this morning he doesn't see a rate cut coming till the fourth quarter meanwhile Federal Reserve chair drum pow reiterating that the central bank has time to deliberate its first rate cut given the recent High inflation readings moving over to the labor market new weekly jobless claims numbers coming out.

In the morning that number expected to tick up a bit fed Shar Jake Pal trying to offer Assurance today saying the labor market is quote strong but rebalancing all of this coming ahead of Friday's full jobs report and taking a look at the economy new US trade balance data are out tomorrow Economist forecas the trade deficit to grow but not as.

Much as Jan's sharp increase am made a jump in Goods Imports all right that does it for today's market domination overtime be sure to come back tomorrow at 3 p.m. Eastern for all of your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell stay tuned we've got more Yahoo Finance on the other.

side.

oh yeah Apple reportedly exploring the home robotic scene this is according to Bloomberg here with all the details as.

Yaho finances Dan Howley Dan that's right we're talking about uh the potential for an inhome robot now uh as Joshy said this is from Bloomberg's uh Mark German uh and this is essentially something that we've seen somewhat before uh Amazon has its own robot currently called Astro and uh it's an inhome robot it follows you around it.

Can uh carry things from room to room yeah like a soda can or something it's not going to pick up your laundry and carry it for you though that would be awesome uh and it acts as kind of an inhome Century to a degree uh trying to make sure if you know things are uh a skew or someone's doing something around your house that you don't necessarily.

Want uh Intruders more likely uh but this is still something that's very much early in development uh according to the report they could use things uh like some of the technology from the car that was uh in development and then canceled uh some of the the technology to help navigate around the home uh that could be uh come from some of the car stuff so.

You know there's there's there's things already in the works or that were in the works that could be repurposed for this I think the bigger question is whether people want a a robot following them around their home or something along those lines and you know Amazon's Astro is still a very Niche product relatively small and uh expensive uh I think if.

People were clamoring for something like this they they would have brought it up already it's not going to be you know like Rosie from from the Jetson it's not going to talk to you or anything like that it's it's going to be just a little robot that that follows you around uh if that's what uh what Apple actually ends up coming out with yeah I as somebody um.

Shared a tweet with from the team like if the robot's not going to do my dishes and clean my house so that I can do stuff I want to do and I don't know how interested I am um but speaking of Amazon as well um they are also making some changes to Personnel some of this has to do with the reporting that we heard about recently that they were.

Closing some of their in-person stores but it does seem to be more than that what's going on there yeah this is uh related to uh one of their segments it's called Uh the sales marketing and Global Services uh organization they laying off a few hundred people there uh they say that it's a result of different uh changes that they're making to training.

They're going to do self-service training things like that uh they're also uh going to be eliminating some people uh who worked with the the physical stores uh related to a shift away from in some of the stores from the larger stores uh the kind of uh technology that allowed you to just walk out uh with Goods so it would use.

Cameras around uh allow you to just pick up what you want and take off and uh the the changes there seem to be that they're going to start removing those from larger grocery stores uh but use them in smaller stores and if if you haven't used it before it's basically you know you go in you pick something up off the shelf cameras around are able to.

See what you're grabbing uh and then you leave and it's charged to your card uh that you have on file when you initially walk in and so uh what they're going to change that to is potentially some uh of the smarter shopping carts they have where you can actually scan items as you drop them into your cart so you wouldn't they're not fully eliminating the the.

Just you know walk out technology that's going to be something that's more uh for smaller Stores um you know think things like airports uh Amazon GH stores things like that so it's just not going to be in the broader larger scale stores it feels as though we're getting kind of a a a push back against that technology I know uh there's been some of those.

Self-checkout lines they're getting less of an emphasis we're seeing some uh real life cashiers come back in to to replace them and it's just you know when it comes to those uh uh self checkout lines they're just a pain uh I mean you know every 5 Seconds they're going off and you need someone to come over and help you anyway so we're seeing more of a a.

Movement away from that but uh Amazon just making this change on its own as far as the larger grocery stores go Dan Hy thank you appreciate it oil prices continue to climb will we see $100 a barrel this year we're going to discuss that on the other side of this break welcome to wealth everyone I'm.

Brad Smith and this is Yahoo finance's newest guide to building your financial footprint from our handpicked community of experts take a listen to what they had to say as we got the show off the ground I think financial literacy has a stigma now you're talking how do we implement it early on so that it becomes a part of our lives every day lot of.

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Look listen I think it's so important to make sure that your house is ready for sale the key thing to remember here though Brad is not to go in debt in order to do so try to do these upgrades at the speed of cash all things with the keys of the crib there appreciate it Jay thanks Brad I don't feel richer after this segment Andy I tell you what I'm.

Getting up I'm walking offset you're going back to those numbers and if you're not there you got to figure out what that number is that you need to hit forget everything you've been told about estate planning it's not just for the wealthy the estate is for those in Beverly Hills no you have life insurance you created an estate planning that.

Early retirement you always dreamed of hey maybe if you're one of those people that has not started yet get started if you start early enough invest wisely and make right and Smart Financial moves you can retire much earlier than those preconceived retirement ages that we we all think about it's really the people in the middle who have to struggle for.

Saving for college and saving for retirement at the same time because the last thing you want to do is retire and then think oh I've made a mistake there is a responsible way to manage coming into a large amount of money longer term you're thinking about things like gifting estate tax assets protection not just the dollars and cents at this point.

But what are your goals and values I already know what I'm doing uh first and foremost I'm going to legally change my government name to first name blessed last name highly favored an introduction to Mac anomic with one of our favorite influencers Ross ma when it's all said and done you just got to ask yourself where's this smart money the reality is.

You're looking 5 10 years down the line you got to continue to take care of your biggest asset as if you're going to play again on Sunday um because it's going to pay off for you in in the long long run.

n now oil prices closing today above $85 a.

Barrel hitting a femon high the move coming is US stockpiles Rose unexpectedly by 3.2 million barrels in the latest week joining us now is Regina mayor KPMG Global head of clients and markets Regina it is good to see you so oil has been rallying we did Reach This five-month High what explains that Regina what what's driving that move.

Well the Market's been remarkably able to shrug off risk and I guess this in this particular instance they haven't been able to so we've got escalating tensions in the Middle East there looks like there might be a spread um that's what's really driving the the big kick up now and we're starting to see demand actually continue to increase like.

Manufacturing Capa uh manufacturing data from the US was stronger than it's ever been since 2022 China was Stronger for the for the last six months so those are some of the factors that are that are going into it we also saw January a lot of production was down because of some of the cold weather so I think there was an expectation that stocks would be.

Lower demand is going higher geopolitics are are are creating a greater risk factor so those are the things that are driving the current rally personally I don't expect that to continue well that that's what I was going to ask you about Regina you know whether some of those factors are going to remain in place I mean geopolitical tensions don't seem to.

Be necessarily abating here but what about the other factors that you were talking about well stocks did build as you just mentioned and I so I do think January was a little bit of an anomaly when it came to production and you see the US driving much greater levels of production hitting record levels of production in December and I I would.

Anticipate that that will come back uh and the US is becoming a much greater exporter of its of its Hydro carbon resources and that's driving a lot of positivity around easing Supply concerns I don't think demand is going to necessarily dampen so if the geopolitical tensions do not scale back somewhat especially in the Middle East.

Then you could potentially see a driver that increases prices but frankly I'm I'm more on the bearish side and I'm not going to predict a three a three-digit oil price anytime soon okay so that's that was going to be my next question for you Regina where do you think the cap is in this current surge that we've seen again I go back to the market has.

Been incredibly remarkable in its ability to shrug off risk this has been going on for the last two years since the conflict in Russia or when the conflict in Ukraine when Russia invaded Ukraine took place and even with a lot of those barrels coming off the market we're still able to increase production from other parts of the world and we've.

Been able to meet the burgeoning demand we we reached record high Global demand in 23 greater even than pre- pandemic and I recall during the pandemic when we were saying we had reached Peak demand and that does not necessarily seem to be the case you know we keep talking about this phenomenon with regard to US Stocks as well equities that is in other words.

This sort of resilience this view that because you know economic growth has continued that stocks have just continued to go up so I guess what I'm asking is how much is Animal Spirits sort of a factor here how much speculation is happening when it comes to the oil markets and how you know tenacious can that be a factor going.

Forward I mean it's incredibly speculative I mean there's all kinds of factors that drive supply and demand uh and I I believe that the the market probably has been under representing risk in the delicate Supply demand balance that we have for Global crude supplies um so you could you could say it's irrational exuberance like we're.

Seeing maybe in some of the equities markets and if that potentially comes comes down you know what does that do but if the stocks do eventually crash that probably means a crash in oil prices as well so I see enough dampeners as well as the things that are being priced in right now to say I think this is something of a blip uh but again I'm.

Not particularly good at predicting oil price so uh don't take that one to the bank well I want to ask about gasoline also because obviously that's getting a lot of attent I mean it always gets a lot of attention but it's an a presidential election year there are some factors going on there um and in the past when we've seen these gasoline.

Prices creep up we have seen some push back from motorists who don't want to pay especially lofty prices what kind of Dynamics are we seeing at play this time well the Public's always able to vote with their feet when it comes to gasoline consumption not 100% so I'm not trying to be hyperbolic about it I understand people need to drive their.

Cars to get to and from work and to pick up their children and take them to school and things of that nature however they might think tce about driving over the summer holiday if gas prices reach an a level that they deem unacceptable I've seen that typically at $5 per gallon in the southern states where gas prices tend to be lower you do see.

Demand destruction uh we're getting into summer driving season we expect gasoline demand to continue to grow that will drive prices up in the short term so the extent to which it's affecting an American's pocketbook will drive how they behave this summer Regina good to see you thanks for joining us thanks coming up shares of.

Levi Strauss are on the Move higher after the compane reported its fiscal first quarter results and raised its forecast we're going to give you the numbers on the other side.

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We're watching shares of Levi Strauss jumping after the jeans maker raised its ful year forecast for adjusted earnings per share the company did post a first quarter loss of $1 million amid ongoing restructuring efforts it's a big swing from the $15 million profits saw during the same period last year but it did beat estimates Revenue fell year-over.

Year during the quarter again it also beat Wall Street estimates so interesting I mean Michelle gas who's a relatively new CEO of the company has been trying to turn it around has been cutting costs there one call out that I thought was particularly interesting here from harmit Singh the CFO in the statement he called out Europe in.

Particular he said our Global prod productivity initiative is progressing well and improving profitability and he said we're encouraged by Trends in our business around the world including in Europe now why am I calling out including in Europe because why are you Julie because of PVH which came out yesterday and said Europe was not doing.

So well so I'm guess I mean I don't know for sure this this statement was probably lawyered and approved days ago but it's interesting that it's that it's a contrast it is the new executive you you mentioned there as well um who takes over from Chris Berg who was a well-respected exec he was sort of crediting with really kind of.

Revitalizing the company Julie and the brand and she's kind of she has talked publicly about her strategy here which is interesting it's going to be like less department stores more boutiques you know not just jeans are you aware that the Canadian tuxedo apparently is having kind of a a moment right now I know.

Head to toe denim look I know every time we talk to hermit he is wearing can maybe I'll try that tomorrow morning wait what is you wait are you wearing no I'm not full Canadian right now you are I mean I'm quasi but I don't think it don't full this a denim shirt yeah and I'm going to tell the people at home I'm going to I'm going to call you out.

You're wearing they are black but you are wearing denim on the botom it didn't feel like I really sold it though today I think tomorrow I can really take it up now okay I'm I'm looking forward to that definitely and speaking of Harmon sing by the way Yahoo finance is going to speak to the CFO of Loui stuss on Friday at 10:30 a.m. eastern be watching not.

Just for what he's wearing but for what he say says as well that'll do it for today's yah Finance lot be sure to come back tomorrow at 3 p p.m. Eastern for all of your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell have a good one.

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