Stock market at the brand new time: Dow sinks more than 400 aspects, yields upward push to 2024 highs | April 2, 2024

Brad Smith alongside Jared blicky this is Yahoo finance's Flagship show the morning brief The Ultimate Guide to help investors make smarter decisions for your portfolio we're tracking some early session volume this morning we're also going to be bringing you today's top Market themes and elevating Yahoo finance's most popular newsletter that's.

Right Brad we've got a lot of ground to cover this Tuesday Morning Futures in the red signaling another day in the doldrum for stocks stock are making a lackluster start to the second quarter after racking up a string of Records in the first three months of 2024 that's right Jared and the rate trade is back in Focus today as investors look for.

More clarity on the timing of interest rate Cuts in the pacing as well we'll hear more from fed officials throughout the day we've got Michelle Bowman Loretta Meer and Mary Daly so let's get to it with the three things that you need to know your road map for the trading day Yahoo finances Nez Fay Madison Mills and Rick Newman have more.

On this Brad the stock futures are in the red poised for more losses as a second quarter gets underway investors digesting the latest manufacturing data hotter than expected readings are growing doubts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first half of the year as the US economy shows surprising resilience but an update on.

Job openings data at 10:00 a.m. eastern should provide more insight into Friday's jobs report a key input in the fed's decision making and Disney's Feud with activist investor Nelson pelts heating up Walt Disney is now pulling ahead in its proxy fight against pelts with more than half of the votes counted Wall Street Journal is reporting that t.

And black rock are some of the major investors backing Disney as Bob Iger tries to fend off any attempt to get two seats on the company's board the results of a shareholder vote selecting board members are expected to be announced at Disney's annual stockholders meeting that's coming up on Wednesday and Donald Trump's social media platform truth.

Social takes a beating share sinking more than 21% on Monday uh following its Blockbuster debut last week the stock drop comes on the heels of an updated regulatory filing that shows the company's taking on heavy losses and facing risks associated with the former president's ties to the platform the company warned it expects losses to.

Continue amid greater profitability challenges according to the filing Shares are slipping 7/10 of a percent so far today well in the absence of big corporate results data data is ruling the markets economic data Futures are lower this.

Morning following a down day for the market stocks fell as stronger than expected manufacturing data that weigh on hopes for possible Fed rate Cuts ifms manufacturing PMI registered a reading of 50.3 in March the first expansion for the sector since 2022 here Jared they said within this report I know the the overall economy continued.

The expansion for the 47th month after one month of contraction in April 20120 they mentioned uh but the new orders index as well here moving back into expansion territory here noteworthy in this report as well and a fraction of rate Cuts were taken off the table so we're seeing now we're closer to two and a half Ray Cuts this year than three and.

That number keeps getting smaller and smaller so the calculus calculus at the FED really front and center in investors minds and let me go to the Wi-Fi interactive here for a second where I can show the bond market this is a 10e OTE yield this is a three-month chart basically what's happened this year and today we are breaking into what amounts.

To a new high for 2024 here is a three-year look and you can see really much in the upper end of this range and what's interesting is higher rates have been historically a headwind for stocks but we'll have the opportunity to talk about this more in the second let me just show you what the sector action is looking like yesterday and then also pre.

Market that is our NASDAQ 100 we're going to go to this is what happened yesterday communication Services despite rates being up was up 77 basis points so was Tech in the green so was energy and then here are the pre-market quotes we can see energy is uh really all that's in the green right now up half a percent consumer discretionary Health Care uh.

Down more than 1% in pre-market trading yeah as you're mentioning these sectors one of the huge things that comes to mind of the six biggest manufacturing Industries for food beverage and tobacco products fabricated Metal Products chemical products and then Transportation equipment which account for a combined 54% of manufacturing.

Gross domestic product registered growth in the month of March according to this report here and they also said that demand remains at the early stages of recovery within this so that's something to continue to watch especially how the FED at their next meeting tries to really take this all into account with their policy pathway and let's get to it.

Here Futures are in the red on the second day of trading of the second quarter investors looking ahead to key jobs data out later this week as a bellweather for the strength of the US economy and for more on what investors should be focused on in the second quarter while the macro backdrop remains uncertain we have gari Jad churi Black.

Rock America's Chief investment and portfolio strategist thank you for joining us in studio here today um just at first blush what's going on with the economic data ISM a bit higher than expected in expansion territory we'll get some key labor market dat Market data today and also Friday what's going on yeah hi good morning it's great to be.

Here in your beautiful news Studios I love it um so on your point around the data look I think we're beginning to see a little bit of softening on the manufacturing side obviously that's you know we want to see that I I wouldn't read too much into any single data point I think we should take the totality of the data and as we point out in our.

Spring investment guide that is just out this morning what we have found over the course of the last 3 months is that growth is surprising to to the upside more than what we had thought it would when we were sitting in December of 2023 what I also think is important is to pay attention to the labor market obviously with jolts uh later today and.

With payrolls later this week I think what we should continue to focus on is the type of moderation that's taking place and what the overall picture is seeing not just one print uh for jeles in particular I think looking at that uh you know the vacancy to unemployment rate that's something that the FED has focused on I think that'll be really.

Important as I'm looking here at your I share spring 2024 investment directions and and the base case here you're saying is that the FED Engineers of soft Landing starts to cut rates in the second half of the year the downside risks though to economic growth do you think they've diminished to this point here no I think the base case Still.

Remains that they go three times this year I will say that right now it the risk is more that they can only deliver maybe two as opposed to four which is where many investors four are higher which is where many investors were and the market was coming into this year so I think if we continue to see inflation remaining sticky and I I actually don't.

Think it's so much around the growth Dynamic I think chair Powell made it very clear that even if unemployment rate continues to move lower that it will be okay as long as inflation's moving down so I think watching how sticky inflation and wages and again uh looking on Friday's data for wages would be super important I think that's what's.

Going to drive at least the bond market going for forward can the equity Market still attain new all-time highs Notch new all-time highs even if we see less Cuts than anticipated coming into the start yeah and I actually you know if you look at our research on nar.com that is one of the things we talk about that the quality parts of the market so.

Looking at Healthcare looking at Tech looking at communication Services those areas of the market that have stable earnings growth looking at something like our qua altica has done well in regimes of lower interest rates and higher interest rates and that's very much an earnings growth story so to the extent that AI Still Remains something.

That we are focused on and we expect that to be the case to the extent that there is free cash flow that can be you know put back into research and development that allows for that earnings growth to remain pretty consistent and I think that can allow quality parts of the market to do well do you think that AI is really changing.

The structure of the market how responds to data um I was just remarking uh just a few minutes ago that we have the tenure OTE yield at a 2024 high but we saw Tech leading yesterday uh it's down today but I'm just wondering you and you allude to some of this in the research that you published that after ch ch chat GPT we've actually seen a decline in.

Value with respect to growth and that you know maybe that's a little bit of a heads scratcher yeah I think that the the same Playbook that we have used historically cannot necessarily be used again in this environment where things like Ai and it can be other things such as the Advent of gp1 on drugs the impact that they have on the markets in terms.

Of the conduciveness to growth productivity in the medium- term I think that cannot be underestimated so when investors are thinking about where to go you have to think about the drivers of earnings growth where the cash flow is available in addition to what are interest rates doing I think the old Playbook of tenure treasury yields.

Higher and therefore growth declining cannot be used anymore and that's also why in addition to looking at things like quality we also think investors should take a more active a more handson approach to managing their portfolio when there are so many counter currents in the markets uh I'm going to make our producers eyes roll back to the back of.

Their heads when I say this next question here because I mean it is something that comes up time and time again but we haven't been able to discuss it yet the election year that is worldwide not just here in the US and more than half of the population the global population heading to the polls are expected to vote or participate in.

Elections what type of event does that create for the markets I think that creates an event in the markets that is the one that we have been pointing out is somewhat higher volatility more dispersion ripe opportunities for active management rip opportunities for picking your sectors and your industries very carefully and also picking where in the.

Credit curve when when we look at the fixed income markets you want to go to so I think that you know it's very easy to say oh just stay invested but but recognizing that volatility will create opportunities as we go into elections not just here in the US but certainly in India and the rest of the world as well gari Chow who is the Black Rock.

America's Chief investment and portfolio strategist great to see you as always thanks so much great absolutely well Donald Trump's social media platform taking a hit following its Blockbuster debut last week after disclosing it lost over $58 Million last year yaho finances Rick Newman joins us now with the breakdown we're taking a look at shares.

Pre-market here down by about 1 percent Rick yeah um I think if you're following this stock you got to get used to this thing yo-yoing because this is this is a very unusual stock so it's important to watch and track the yo-yos yeah I mean so can you think of any other company that depends so much on the Persona and personality of one person I mean I I.

Can't no no I I don't think so because because Tesla produces products Tesla I mean Tesla makes a profit and it has always had a product that goes into an existing market mean it help create the market for EVS but it um it's not dependent on whether what Elon Musk says or you know if Elon Musk disappeared Tesla would carry on right if if Donald.

Trump disappears or if he just Fades from view um Trump technology and Media Group has no purpose because the whole purpose of Truth social its main product is that he's there if he's not there um what is it um so I mean this is as we've discussed Jared this this is like a binary um play on the 2024 election if Trump wins um then his uh his um truth.

Social his social media company will be a place where you will be people will be having the important conversations uh about what happens in politics for the next four years if Trump loses what's the point of Truth social I mean I I don't see it so um so we're going to see that reflected in the stock and by the way this company has almost no Revenue I.

Mean um it's got something around a five to6 billion valuation based on the uh that big debut but $4 million of Revenue I mean one of the things about early stage companies is uh they they don't they lose money but they grow rapidly that's that's what keeps people in the stock this is not growing rapidly and it's not clear where if future revenues.

Are ever going to come from well and for social media companies the historical model has been lean on Advertising of course it's unclear what advertisers for an extended period of time would want to continue to make sure that they are putting a messaging or a campaign into truth social well it's got four million it had $4 million of Revenue mostly from.

Advertising in 22 I mean that's hardly anything yeah um and it lost $60 million so there are singular $4 million ad spends that companies do yes so this is a pipsqueak of a company I mean let's keep this in mind I mean uh it's it features arguably the most famous person in the world but it's not making a much money off it's actually making no money.

Off the most famous person in the world less than the average Super Bowl ad cost last year oh yeah yeah yeah all right one that's one ad one 13 second thanks so much Rick sure all right thank you Rick Newman Tesla shares plunging after for first quarter delivery numbers they came in at 386,000 below estimates of just over.

449,000 Yahoo finances PR super Manan joins us now with an update so a disappointment and some people saw this coming yeah Jared this is a I I I'm almost kind of shocked here looking at this number because Bloomberg had estimate consent around 454 is or so thereabouts the street had been pulling these numbers down I think deut Bank was.

At 414 and they missed that um this is also a huge sequential Miss compared to Q4 and also a Miss compared to last year which was around 4202 I believe I'm I'm just U remembering these numbers from last year so uh just really I think well well well well well below what people thought would be reported I think that's.

Why I mean you're seeing the reaction in the share price right now I mean it might might even go lower when the Market opens at 9:30 you know versus consensus it's a 15% draw down the 386,000 number there um you've had a chance to produ some of the other delivery uh reportings that have come in from other automakers how does this fit.

Into the puzzle what is the puzzle looking at now I mean so we saw rivan today uh slight beat there uh obviously much lower in terms of volume I mean we're talking about like less than 10% volume here what what they're doing so it's a different market for them but you know we we talk about PRS in China is that what's going on here is that is.

That the issue here um is it just that they're hitting their sort of the amount of people that that have converted over to EVS has hit that critical point where we're not seeing much more growth we've seen demand sort of weigh a bit uh we've seen the uh the Tesla image attached to Elon Musk the caliber numbers that came out with Reuters reported on this musk.

Has kind of been had a noticeable effect on the Tesla brand Equity right so a lot Happening Here I think under the under the surface of these numbers and it's not looking too good right now yeah just to put some context on this as you were talking about the comparisons between rivian and Tesla well rivan even for their total production figure.

13,980 vehicles produced during q1 Tesla for their other models alone so we're talking about the S we're talking about the x that brought in 177,000 deliveries but again here year over-year that is a decline we went I went back and just took a look at those figures really quickly here that was coming in at upwards of 440,000 uh Vehicles produced.

Last year so that is a year-over-year Q4 right for for Q yes and Q q1 last year was 422 or thereabouts right yeah yeah so that's that's I think that's a I don't think they've had a sequential decline in prod in deliveries in in if not forever I can't remember the last time they had that you know I'm I'm looking at our a heat map here on the.

Wi-Fi interactive this is our electrical vehicles and components intraday map this is shows pre-market quotes in the little red boxes below and it's sorted by performance so Leo audio is actually in the green in the upper left but check out in the bottom right we have go EV down 30% we have uh mvst that's microvast Holdings that's Battery.

Technology so charging and techn charging technology Battery Technology just getting whacked uh mvst down 25% and those compared to Tesla down 67% Nick L down 67% so there's I think there's a lot of forward looking in this uh just to kind of underscore where you were coming from before uh that the that the industry overall may be in for a.

More serious slump well EVS versus right talking about the rest of the industry we talk a lot of uh CEOs at the auto show New York Auto Show and they they say US Auto sh is actually climbing this year from compared to last year so it's it's the EV draw down that we're seeing here I want to note a couple things in that Tesla report notice says that other.

Vehicles they usually just say this X and Model S right that's including the cybertruck now so the question is why don't they give us those numbers yet I know they say they haven't volume production but I think there's some people would want to hear that there's some politics to breaking out numbers and segments there always is there yeah.

And then um producer extraordinaire and the EP of the show baval told me that this is the first annual q1 decline since 2022 delivery so that or 2020 I can't even read the thing right 2020 and that was the beginning of the pandemic all right well thank you for that report PR Superman and we'll be all over that uh going into the close today now Brad I.

Know you're over there we uh you're watching a couple things for us at the Wi-Fi interactive I am I I was there now I'm here well well we've got a lot coming up on the morning brief some might even say a jam-packed show the battle in the House of Mouse Disney reportedly taking the lead over billionaire Nelson pelts we'll speak to.

A Disney shareholder about what comes next for the company Plus hire for longer seems like a reality we'll speak to former fed president Dennis lockart about the future of rate hikes and then later on in the brand new show wealth we dive into the world of tipping how much should you tip when should you tip is tipping fatigue impacting workers we'll.

Get all of those answers at 1100 a.m.

now time for today's stock to watch shares of health insurance stocks Human United Health and CVS who owns Etna all taking a hit in the pre-market after the Biden Administration announced final Medicare.

Advantage rates will remain unchanged in 2025 you're taking a look at the share price reaction here in the extended hours in the pre-market human down the most on a percentage basis right now down a little more than 11% right now while CVS down 7% roughly United Health down 5% yeah a picture is worth a thousand words let's go to the Wi-Fi.

Interactive where we have uh my Pharmacy benefit managers heat map here you can see not United Health that is a big Square it was down 1% yesterday down another 5.14 or 02 per in the pre-market human here down 11% CNC down 3.3% and uh overall the healthcare sector XLV that is down 1.24% I do have a quote from uh some.

Street analysis here Bloomberg intelligence saying on the Medicare decision their final payment reduction for 2025 quote reinforces the challenging environment for health plans like human United Health and CVS the cut comes as Federal scorekeepers project slower mid singled digigit enrollment growth over the next next five years and.

Near-term uncertainty over medical cost Trend so just kind of being caught wrong-footed uh from an expected event here has just led to these declines yeah absolutely we'll see how this continues to impact these names going into uh the trading day we know that the Department of Health and Human Services as well has been looking at more data on the.

Medicare drug price negotiations new data on how the law lowers health care costs for women especially as they had been targeting and particularly Within uh one of the releases out this morning uh they said within this at least the administrator uh has said the women throughout the country are disproportionately impacted by high.

Health care costs the inflation reduction act bridging this Gap by lowering prescription drug costs and making healthc care more accessible for women and all people with Medicare here so we'll continue to track these names closely going into the opening belt and another tech company looking to make its public debut rubric has filed to go.

Public on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker rbrk as the IPO Market it looks to regain momentum yaho finances Dan Hy joins us now with more rubric and I understand there's a Microsoft partnership or angle involved yeah they're a backer of rubric basically this is a company that is about data.

Security there's some cyber secur elements but they really kind of seem to Peg themselves towards data security that means keeping the data safe where it's moving or if it's at rest uh and they say uh a few things in their their uh S1 about how gener of AI uh growth needs to be a part of this uh conversation about data security and how.

They're using AI uh directly into their formula when it comes to overall data security but uh over the past uh year-over-year they've had uh subscription growth numbers of let me just pull this up here 47% year-over year growth uh that subscription annual recurring Revenue uh last year they uh last quarter rather Q4 uh 2024 they.

Booked $784 million in recurring Revenue uh but their losses have widened uh in the last year they saw losses of 277.49 million uh in uh last year so obviously they're they're still growing expanding they say a lot of their money is going towards advertising right now a lot of that has to go into making sure.

That people know what the company is and why they're essential especially when it comes to uh data security you know a lot of people think cyber security think well can't just be One-Stop shop there's plenty of companies out there that are doing things along these lines as well what type of ownership are we talking about that Microsoft has here uh it's.

Going to be uh regularly uh relatively small it's not going to be uh a massive but I think you know the the fact that Microsoft has a a play in this means that uh it just kind of kind of goes into where Microsoft is as far as data security overall and cyber security overall they're really pushing into that space heavily with their own products by.

The way so they they have that uh but then just ensuring that they kind of have all their their hands in different pots uh going on or lots of fire Iron's in the fire yeah there it is that's mix mixed metaphor there but yeah I mean the idea uh I think I'm just thinking about Pi um are we all always I I think the idea that they're they're trying to get.

Into security uh more is very important for Microsoft is you know they're regularly criticized as being a a weak point in the chain of cybercity so pushing further in with with deals like this is is very important for them I think all right we're going to have to leave it there thank you for that Dan Howley and we are just minutes away from.

The opening bell on Wall Street we're taking a look at the day's biggest movers that's right after the break.

now Bing Bong there's the opening bell you've got a live shot of the New York Stock Exchange and mid Town Manhattan.

You've got some Funfetti where trade web is ringing the opening bell but take a look zero in on the New York Stock Exchange we're going to talk about this during the next hour but of course the big GE split you've got GE Aerospace that retains the old GE ticker symbol and now you've got gev which is G ver NOA here so two of.

Our stocks to watch here on the day of course here as that split goes into effect and there you're seeing a live shot of the great group clapping cheering ringing Bells over at the New York soccer sh on Wall Street 2 G for the price of one at one time the most widely held retail stock in the universe I don't have the exact figures today but.

Let's see how the market is opening and we can see a lot of red here the Dow down about 86 basis points S&P 500 right there with it NASDAQ down over 1% and the Russell 2000 leading the way down down about 1.2% and let me just put a two-day chart to see uh yesterday wasn't that constructive either and let me just show you the year to date it recently.

Broke to the upside but as it's been doing it's a lot of two steps forward one step back and if you could put the uh let's put the heat maps on there and see what the sector action is looking like today energy in the Forefront it was a leader pre-market also utilities and Staples in the green so that's a little bit of a defensive setup there.

Consumer discretionary Healthcare and Tech are the big underperformers down about 1% anything else you're looking at here Brad yeah I'm just going to toggle on oval two cars in our cars heat map there why these are car these are car the auto dealers Great Stuff do this I'm going to go back to our EVs and sorry for showing my back on TV that is a no.

No but here we go Tesla down about 6% as yes to illustrate how it is to work with props here you know sometimes they have a mind of their own but for right now it's just going to stay in place take a look at here at Tesla uh that is of course the disappointing delivery figure and that's the type of stock price share action that you get uh after they.

Disappointed on the delivery front that declin that we were talking about with our own Pro super Manan and then additionally here uh we're taking a quick look equal weighted look down there yeah absolutely so there's rivan rivan and we'll get a two-day look um yeah substantial drop right there just erasing yesterday's gains all right well.

Speaking of drops if the Wi-Fi interactive continues to drop anymore then uh I don't know what we'll do so let's go to Randy here we're ending we're getting to that time of the corner again that's earning season last earning season brought stocks to alltime highs that's despite higher for longer rates becoming a reality here but there might.

Be a reason to be a little more cautious this time around our next guest Randy you see him there on screen he believes that there's a few yellow caution Flags starting to flutter Randy Frederick who's the founder of Randy Frederick media.com here to tell us more so Randy what what are the main Flags if there are some some yellow or some red flags.

That investors should be wary of going into this earning season hi Brian uh not red yet but I do see some yellow flags so a couple of things that I've noticed is that you know the equity put call ratios which are involve a lot of retail activity and unfortunately I hate to say it but retail Traders have a tendency to be wrong a lot have been really hitting.

Those levels of what I call extremes and when they do that they tend to be um contrarian indicators I don't think we're there yet right now I think we're due for about a two three maybe 4% pullback here right about this moment but if you it's amazing and we talk about this all the time you know history doesn't always repeat itself but it.

Often Rhymes this particular Market we're in right now is rhyming very very closely with the 2013 market and in about miday of 2013 we had almost a 6% pullback and it looks like we're setting up for something similar to that again we have the markets at record level highs we had a 10% gain in just the first quarter in the S&P so you know.

That that's a very strong uh very strong move for a very short period of time and people are just getting a little bit too comfortable with this bull market it's time for some profit taking not selling big positions but just taking trimming taking a little bit of profit off the table and putting on a few Hedges Randy I want to direct everybody's attention.

To the Wi-Fi interactive and I'll just what I'm seeing in case you can't see it but this is the S&P 500 I'm putting on a chart that goes back to the 1980s you mentioned 2013 I think this is a really interesting comparison um this was the year when the S&P 500 finally broke out of what was a 20year two decade trading range some call it a secular bare Market.

What reminds you about 2013 and then what can we expect if this is the case yeah well if you overlay the two shock stock charts on top of each other and you scale the y-axis similar in terms of percentages obviously you can't use the same numbers because we're at a higher level but if you scale it in terms of percentages the trajectory is very very.

Similar and again we're we're approaching that typical that proverbial sell and May and go away period which people talk about it every year the truth is if you look at the month of May and you go just two weeks before and two weeks after we've had a pullback in May 22 of the last 23 years sometimes it's only been a percent or two sometimes.

It's been more like four five six% flash within a couple of weeks on either it happens it's happened virtually every year and again this trajectory looks very very similar to the 2013 which as I said had about I think it was a 5.8% in the in the latter part of May what what is the main catalyst do you think that companies are going to try and lean into.

This earning season Randy well I mean we we've had record high earnings right just this last quarter we're about two weeks away from the next earning season and you know at some point things have to cool off they have to settle down we look at things in terms of percentages but as you get higher and higher whether that's in a.

Stock chart whether that's in earnings whether that's in comparisons of quarter over quarter um revenues or earnings either one uh you ultimately have to hit larger numbers to maintain a p a consistent percentage trajectory so things simply just cool off because that's how mathematics work the other challenge we have and we saw this um.

With the numbers we got yesterday on the ISM Manufacturing we went into an expansion phase for the first time in a very long time in manufacturing yes realizing that manufacturing only represents about 12% of all the companies out there but it tends to be a leader of the services sector and so there's no real concern about a Slowdown.

There what it does do and the prices paid component if you look at that shows that prices and uh and inflation are still a problem so there was almost no no percent zero% chance that we were going to get a rate cut in May and now the percentage for the month of June has fallen below that typical threshold you back eight years for every rate hike and.

Every rate cut unless there was a 65% prob ility it didn't happen now we're below that level for June so we're already looking out past June before we can even hope for a potential rate cut yeah what if the market has it wrong What If the Fed has it wrong and they get caught on the back foot here in other words I'm talking about a.

Reacceleration of the economy with inflation um as I guess a headwind uh what does that look like because that would be kind of the no Landing scenario that seems to be perennially priced out of the market but here it is we keep seeing in uh evidence that the economy is a little bit stronger than we're used to how does this play out in the market.

Well I wouldn't see that as the FED having gotten it wrong I would say the FED would would have gotten it wrong if they'd already started cutting rates which they have not done the fed's been so patient that it's frustrated a lot of people waiting for that rate cut I think if if we see a reacceleration of or a continued um maintaining of the current.

Inflation levels or even an increase in inflation I would say the FED has gotten it right by being very patient and not cutting rates so uh you know in fact if anything they could be forced into tightening more which I don't think will happen at these current levels but that means honestly I know it's not the consensus perspective we could go this.

Entire calendar year without any rate cuts at all and the economy continued to chug along and doing just fine and corporate sector doing well also I know that you were a market strategist for for quite some time Randy put put your Market strategist hat on here what's your top pick amid perhaps what we're laying out here and some of the caution.

Flags that investors should be keeping eye out for so a couple of things um obviously that on days like today when we get pullbacks and and I was expecting this look at my commentary I put out last week Thursday I thought we would have a pullback that would start at the beginning of the quarter again that's one of those.

Patterns that repeats itself almost every quarter right as the quarter Begins the market will change directions we were in a solid up phase and now we get a little bit of a pullback if you're in a down phase often times you get a move the other direction so right at the moment today um and this week we've got weakness in some of the cyclical sectors.

As you pointed out just a few moment ago this is an opportunity if you've been wanting to add some um exposure in there to pick up some things when they're a little bit cheaper likewise if you're a little too defensive uh you're going to see uh or if your Holdings in defensive sectors like you mentioned Staples Health Care utilities are going to move.

Up a little bit if you're an options Trader and I often recommend people do this even if you're not sophisticated just use things like covered calls when the markets when your sectors are up sell some covered calls to take some to bring in some income when you get a dip like right now you can buy some of those back a little cheaper I think longer.

Term for this year a cyclical perspective still makes a lot of sense but you got you've got to be willing to make small adjustments when you get opportunities like we have and I see dips like we're in right this moment as an opportunity Randy Frederick who is the founder of Randy Frederick media.com Randy thanks so much for taking the time.

Here this morning kicking off the trading session with us thanks coming up everyone Disney's proxy battle heats up investors will soon learn whether pelts has succeeded in his push to restore the magic as he says at Disney we'll hear from one Disney shareholder on what he expects on the other side of this.

break.

sh Disney's proxy battle is entering its final stretch the fate of Disney's board will finally be determined after activist investor Nelson pel's month long battle for a boardroom shakeup Walt.

Disney is currently pulling ahead in its proxy fight against pelts with more than half of the votes counted the Wall Street Journal reports pelts is seeking board seats for himself and former Disney CFO Jay rasulo and for more and what we can expect from Wednesday's shareholder vote we're joined by Michael Levan leevin founder of the activist.

Investor and Disney shareholder thank you for joining us here today give us your big picture assessment it looks like this is a a huge epic battle Disney household name tons of retail participation something like 40% uh retail ownership of the stock and now we have this very public battle kind of draw the lines for us and tell us what's.

Going on well this is a uh thanks for having me this is a um in some sense a uh an assessment of what's happened to Disney over the past many years in the past two or three years and it's a bit of a u a review of what CEO Bob Iger has done in the past two or three years um and um there's a lot to it there's many many players here it's not just.

Um trian Partners uh founder Nelson pelts a distinguished activist investor who's done this many times before um he's working with a um AG grieved disgruntled former Disney executive Ike promot a promot sold uh Marvel Marvel Comics to to Disney uh so the two of them have been coordinating on this there's a third investor that has been.

Uh involved a shareholder called Blackwells partners that has a Blackwell Capital that has also nominated some directors so it's um one of the more complicated Messier situations that activist investors have have seen uh but uh to your point it really is a reflection of uh cherer sentiment about about Disney share price hasn't done.

Well lately uh there questions about its overall strategy and how it's going to compete in its various markets and in in some respects um tranne and Nelson uh were uh just shareholders like me uh trying to make sure that they were able to um get value out of this uh there's some more specific uh points that um uh tranne and Blackwells and so forth have.

Brought up really related to how the company is governed and how the board of directors uh has related to Iger um and so some of the particular some of the specifics that uh pelts has brought up all pertain to uh how well the board uh supervises manages leads Iger or on the other hand how much Iger uh basically leads the board right uh and and sort of.

Tells them what to do Michael correct me if I'm wrong you've been a Disney shareholder for 30 years now from what you've seen play out with this company over decades at this juncture what way do you want this vote to go and to best position Disney for its next inflection point well I'm um as you could probably heard you know I do this kind of thing.

Too activist investing you know have a website the activist investor.com and so forth that uh um uh so so you could sort of see where I'm coming from here um I've long thought that the Disney board was quite insolar um and really uh refused to push back on anything Bob Iger wanted to accomplish uh for a long time that was really good for Disney.

Shareholders there were many deals and uh executive recruiting and so forth that he did that just really worked out well uh past two three four years it hasn't been quite the case um the board has uh kind of in our View kind of let uh Iger do kind of what he want and and hasn't worked out um so I would and and I um you know all of his uh Bluster uh.

Nelson pelz is a very experienced director uh he's been on some really high Pro File boards and been able to hold Executives accountable uh the overall perception I suppose among a lot of shareholders is that um you know whatever Iger wants uh in the boardroom happens and that those directors don't really push back on him well Nelson.

Pelts is not the kind of person to not push back you know he doesn't need this board seat for his resume like some other potential directors or even some Disney directors um he just wants to um you know make sure that uh you would get a proper succession plan in place that the decisions that the company makes about uh where it wants to.

Invest money reallocate Capital are all thoroughly vetted and uh and and well well conceived so um you know he he's someone that the he's the type of director that shareholders can generally rely on to at least make make sure that there's not just uh you know quiet acceptance of what a CEO wants to do but instead there's a a thorough and.

Potentially um you know uh contentious discussion in the boardroom sure about the direction that the company wants to go Michael just just to add on to that as well I mean very rarely have we seen especially for a household name like this a an activist campaign go all the way into each of our LinkedIn feeds even or our social media feeds for those of.

Us who don't even own Disney's stock here so we're now emotionally invested in this one way or another but now the the the priorities or the perspectives that's been laid out so even if Nelson pelts does not get this seat How likely is it that Disney is able to meet on some of the standards that have been put forward as part of this campaign even if.

Tranne is not getting the board seats that it's looking for Blackwell is not getting those board seats okay this is you're that's a great question that this this whole project this whole process has raised the visibility of the board of directors and really caused them to think hard about um how it wants the company to run uh they've heard from.

Many many shareholders uh they've reached out to shareholders about what uh what they want the what they want the company to do and there there will be some continued pressure on this board as a consequence of this from all these shareholders uh two points though first uh Nelson's not going away you know he did this a year ago uh Disney uh.

Made a few changes boosted the share price a little bit but it didn't go far enough and so cut thousands of jobs in the process too yeah oh absolutely there was there was all sorts of changes but but now a year later trenne was back you know nominating directors again and taking it further second uh for all the pressure that this has brought on to.

Disney from other shareholders and so forth shareholders that like me really would like to see somebody you know independent but also um with the will to challenge Management in the boardroom so we'll be I suppose a little disappointed if not uh if if pelts doesn't make it in the boardroom that someone like pelts is not in the.

Boardroom to uh to push back on uh on on Executive leadership want to ask you um just kind of thinking a little bit more big picture about the structure of some of these activist battles that you engage in on the one hand we have institutional shareholder Services they are backing pelts and then we have glass Lewis endorsing Disney um I out of.

Memory I don't remember last time these two were opposing each other but maybe you could explain why this is uh important well they they frequent they they uh split their advice to their uh institutional shareholder uh clients more often than you'd think it doesn't happen you know routinely but it it happens you know a few times each kind.

Of proxy season um and sometimes it's a factor of um you know what their own clients are telling them about what they want to see uh uh with companies because they uh they in some respects reflect uh the sentiment of their of their clients um they also again agreed that um uh tryan should not elect two uh directors but ISS just simply said that uh sort of.

Like what I was trying to say a moment ago that uh the Disney board could benefit from peltz's presence and glass Lewis disagreed with that um they also agreed that um none of Blackwell's nominees should uh win election uh it's also worth noting that there was a third much smaller uh proxy uh adviser called Ean Jones that normally does like you.

Know debt rating uh that also advised that uh that try and uh win shareholders support so it happens a little more than we'd think um frequently those decisions turn on you know very small issues that uh uh just influence you know kind of what an individual proxy adviser you know decides to do uh at that at that moment there there's there's not there's.

Not some broad uh lesson to be taken from from the fact that they didn't uh they didn't agree on this one Michael thanks so much for taking the time here ahead of a critical vote that we know is underway Disney shareholder and founder of the activist investor Michael Levan thanks so much for taking the time here you're so welcome it's my pleasure.

Thanks everyone let's do a quick check of the markets here I'm taking a look at the Wi-Fi interactive you've got the three major US averages pulled up here on your screen we're down across the board for the Dow the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ here and Jared I know D the Explorer says Swiper no swiping but guess what I swiped it I swiped the uh.

Interactive from you just for a hot second here as I'm taking a look completely fun at the uh I'm going to put some charts on here I'm not as sophisticated as you so I won't put the candlesticks on as of right now it is a down day though we don't need candles sticks to show that past two days here as we begin this.

Second quarter here we're down by about 1.9% for the Dow past two days for the NASDAQ down by about 1.3% much of that coming here today and the S&P 500 you're' seen that down 1 and a qu% just lastly let's ride out with a look at the sector activity here as we go to break here coming up we'll be taking a look at oil as crude Futures hit 8 $5 a barrel.

More after the break sh.

now us crude Futures briefly topping $85 a barrel this morning this is the first time for that since October OPC plus production Cuts helping to push the prices higher this morning let's bring.

In Yahoo finances ANZ Fay to break it down hey ANZ hey Brad yeah and oil has been rallying recently and as you just mentioned briefly topping earlier this morning 85 but look right now we're just above $84 a barrel for Brent crude we're about $88 a barrel and it's also safe to say that you know analysts had been predicting what oil targets were going.

To be this year and we saw a lot of predictions on Wall Street for Brent around 90 uh a barrel and look we're at 88 so right near the top of the range that uh some analysts had been predicting year-to date want to mention that we are seeing Brent up 16% year-to date WTI up 20% year-to date a lot of reasons why we have been seeing oil.

Rallying one is OPEC the expectation that OPEC will continue with its production cuts at least until uh the half of this year first half this year also you've got the Russ Russian diesel exports that are that have been lowered you've got escalating tensions in the Middle East that is all lifting oil prices then you had that hotter than.

Expected manufacturing data here in the US so that says something about the demand side as well and I do want to point out what's happening with oil and gas related stocks because we have been watching XLE up 1% yesterday XLE was also up right now we're watching the energy sector at a 52- we High guys all right thank you for that iness coming up.

We say goodbye for now to our friend Brad Smith Madison Mills will be joining me at the desk for the next hour but don't despair much like the Terminator he will be back for wealth at 11:00 a.m. eastern I'm not trying to terminate your wealth out there I'm trying to help you build it there uh but Jared and matd have you for much more right here on.

Yahoo finance I hear you guys are going to be breaking some fresh jolts jobs openings data of course and diving into Tesla's disappointing delivery numbers plus talking about rate cut possibilities with a former Atlanta fed president Dennis lockart I'm going to be watching you should too keep it right here locked on Yahoo.

Finance.

yeah welcome back to Yahoo finance I'm Madison Mills alongside Jared blicker we are 30 minutes into the trading day and.

We've got breaking employment data out just moments ago we have the March jolt numbers here running through these we have uh February job openings hitting 8.75 6 million that is a Touch Above the estimate which was 8.7 3 million so just a little bit more on the job openings than we had anticipated interesting to see the markets moving.

Down to the red which we're going to get a little bit more of a check on the markets with Jared in a second here but again a little bit more of a beat when it comes to the job openings than what was estimated at about uh 02 basis points of a Miss on that when it comes to the increase in job openings that were uh measured in the jolts data over.

The course of February this could be an indication the market is reading this as news that the FED is going to have to keep rates higher for longer in order to put a little bit more pressure on the economy seeing that job openings are ticking back up and this of course comes on the heels of that hotter than anticipated ISM data which was hotter.

Than we had seen a print on the ism data since 2022 so combining those two factors together on the data we might continue to see a little bit of downside movement in the markets today but Jared what are you looking at when it comes to the market reaction to these numbers I am not seeing a huge Market reaction but let's take a look here see what the.

Charts say S&P 500 down 9/10 of a percent you can see we are just off of these lows down here if I put candlesticks on we'll see if we can get some more granularity the lows of the day were made at 10 a.m. on that print but we have reversed upwards and now let's take a look at the NASDAQ that's down 1.33% pretty similar chart there.

And before the report was uh released I was looking at the bond market specifically the 10e OTE yield was up about seven basis points that is where it stands right now however uh the move was already made this morning the move uh that catapulted Above This 2024 resistance so we are now at the highest levels we've seen going back to late.

Last year that's significant but again this didn't happen off of that report uh per se I think because this report is a little bit rearward rearward uh looking it's the March numbers we're going to get April numbers in just a couple days uh not too much of a a market reaction but we are seeing energy that is up 1.4% it's been the leader all day by mile and.

Then utilities that is also in the green by up up uh about 3/10 of a percent to the downside we have Healthcare consumer discretionary Tech and real estate all underperforming and down more than 1% and Jared just to go through the data a little bit that we're getting in from this print it does look like a lot was little changed in this joltz report but.

Layoffs did take up just a touch again a lot that is little changed in the report so a lot of folks saying that they're going to take that when it comes to uh anticipated news becoming true off of this report but interesting to see that we are getting some of that layoff data in color in this print uh which we've been hearing about anecdotally.

Anecdotally over the course of the year so far but speaking of layoffs in an industry that has been experiencing those it's obviously been quite a ride for Tech so far this year from the high highs with the AI hype driving Nvidia shares up over 80% to low lows like weakening Eevee demand driving Tesla down almost 30% % and down in the.

Pre-market trade today as well 5% at the moment here we're going to go into the good bad and ugly of the tech sector in q1 with our very own Dan Howley Dan a lot of movement in your beat always yeah yeah it's a it's a good time to to write about tech always and you know let's just go over some of the good stuff before we get into the the bad and then.

The ugly the good uh kick things off Nvidia obviously had another Whopper of a quarter uh they had uh an announcement from their GTC event uh where they launched their Blackwell G puu architecture they saw uh year-to-date uh shares uh up 89% over the last 12 months up 226 um we also had uh Intel they got.

Some of the money from the chips act finally $8.5 billion uh plus some loans in there that they're able to uh take advantage of uh we also saw uh Apple in a good way kill its electric car project that was a decade in the making seem to not really be going anywhere this will allow them to focus more on AI which is something that uh according to Wall.

Street or according to I guess the perception uh they are severely lacking and then finally uh we had meta they announced that they're going to be uh providing a quarterly dividend of 50 cents per share and authorized additional share BuyBacks of $50 billion uh that sent the stock skyrocketing 38% year to date 131% uh over the last 12.

Months now let's get to the fun stuff this is the Bad and the Ugly the bad uh let's kick things off uh with the FTC they announced an inquiry into alphabet Amazon and Microsoft over investments in AI uh with anthropic and uh open AI obviously the uh FTC trying to make sure that no one firm dominates uh the still nent generative AI space uh the uh DM uh.

Digital markets act over uh in the EU that has the European commission uh looking into whether Apple Google and meta are actually complying with that law that basically uh ensures that big Tech players don't uh dominate their markets uh we also had Google with a terrible debut of their Gemini generative uh uh image.

Software uh the big image that went out there was a picture the mark yeah miss the Mark is what they said Multicultural Nazis are not a good thing that you want to post on the internet and that's what uh ended up happening with Gemini and then obviously we have the Tik Tock uh band that Congress is trying to get through and then finally let's go over.

Some of the very ugly stuff uh the first is this is this is heinous uh we have the doj's antitrust fight against Apple basically saying that they try to uh uh block out comp competition which harms consumers we have Elon musk's lawsuit against open AI saying that they've abandoned their original Mission uh for creating AI that benefits Humanity in.

Favor of profits uh we have Intel their earnings fell well short with really just blasted them uh as far as their their share price goes generally we've seen a lot of tech layoffs continue and then this EV uh demand slowdown that uh we're seeing where people just aren't taking up EVS as fast as anybody really thought that they would or wanted to uh.

And so that's really hurting things uh we see that uh uh with uh Tesla uh coming in uh with their announcements so I mean look it's it's been a a wild quarter uh I think that the main story the main takeaway is still Nvidia uh they're the big leaders but look Apple getting play all over the place as they usually do in both the good and bad side.

Yeah and I've heard uh their own offerings uh competitors to open AI really gr gaining Traction in the marketplace and also in some of these Benchmark tests all right we got to move on thank you for that Dan h by the way Tesla shares sinking this morning after missing Street estimates for its first quarter delivery the stock has been.

Punished so far this year down over 30% Tesla along with apple have lagged the broader broader market so far this year meanwhile the S&P 500 has notched several new record highs as Tech begins to lose some of its L luster what sectors can investors look to for growth now City may just point you toward consumer discretionary The Firm.

Downgraded the tech sector to Market weight from overweight and while boosting its rating on the consumer discretionary sector to overweight joining us now is one of the analysts behind the call Scott croner City us Equity strategist and Scott thank you for joining us here today um this is this is a call on consumer discretionary.

You are excited about the Auto industry the automotive industry just explain your call for us well let's put it this way we've been underweight the autos for the better part of the last quarter and we decided to lift it from an underweight to a market weight what that did mechanically was play into other areas of the consumer particularly.

Retail uh durables um where we have already been constructive and we've even lifted our consumer services bias a bit more favorably as well so all told what that does is take our consumer discretionary View to a much more constructive one but you know it's really quite interesting because it's a related topic toour is that part of.

Where we're going with our sector calls is the Market's evolving Market's evolving away from the tech and uh and cyclical leadership that we've had since early November we think we're starting to see signs that the market is gradually positioning in favor of those parts of the market that should at the margin benefit from an eventual fed.

Pivot consumers front and center on that well talk to me then about what that potential fed pivot could be doing to equities we're seeing a lot of red on the screen this week because of some hotter than anticipated data particularly with the ism on Monday has that changed your view on the ability of equities to withstand a higher for.

Longer environment you know I it it hasn't um from a structural perspective I just think what we have to keep perspective on is that this move this aggressive S&P move uh since early November really has been predicated on soft Landing expectations and almost a Goldilocks uh Persona to the to what's been going on.

Regarding the economy and the Fed so when you get incremental data points that question the timing of that First Fed rate cut and we're still in print thinking it's sort of a June time frame that's going to distort and bring into question that goldilock soft Landing which is in our view a reason for the market to let's call it digest some of.

The gains that we've had so it all sort of fits That Way Madison but what I would say is that we still think on balance the way the data unfolding here is that the FED we think is going to have a decent underpinning to gradually gradually lessen its degree of restrictiveness and if you could keep your macro hat on for a second here I.

Want to talk to you about the labor market we just got a joltz print um I don't need you to weigh in on expectations for the report in particular but maybe tie into the labor market how you're viewing the consumer discretionary sector and maybe even the tech sector that is a little bit less out of favor right now with you yeah so.

You know Tech sector from our view let's let's cover that one real real quickly we think what's happened with a lot of this run number one we'd argue that that mag seven we call it the big seven has really become much more idiosyncratic in its behavior and that's been underway for several months now as it pertains to the labor market we get it the FED is is.

Is very clearly focused on that as an indication of where the inflation circumstances going we still think in aggregate the inflation trend is one of decelerating getting from 3% inflation to 2% that last mile if you will is going to be a little bit more difficult it's going to take some time but we think the trends are in place for that.

Coming back to how this all fits into this broader narrative the Market's anticipatory right and when you do go down a path where you see um that fed pivot when you go from a couple of years of a Fed hawkish narrative to something that's different than that you need to begin to you know stay one step ahead of where you think that sentiment shift is.

Going to go we think in aggregate that the consumer yes while we're feeling this unemployment employment issue right now gradually gradually is The Cutting Edge of who should benefit at the margin from uh an inflection in interest rates particularly at the short end I want to tie the macro picture to what we're seeing in some of the valuations because.

You rightfully mentioned the valuation elephant in the room a couple of times in your uh recent note so I'm curious to what extent could a eventual fed pivot start to weigh on some of these hyper valuations that we've seen and would that be a good thing for equities yeah really good question Masson so what i' keep in mind here and.

We've talked about this in the past is that you have to remember when you look at periods where the FED is actually easing you actually see volatility increased during periods of fed doish much more so than fed hawkishness doesn't intuitively make sense but what's really going on is that the FED is responding to some some form of.

Economic or macro angst that's what's driving the change or inflection in interest rates so when you pull this together what we think happens here is we're going to be entering a noisy period the data that we're talking about today is evidence of that and in that noisiness what it brings us back to is hey we've got a market that's trading it.

Nearly 23 times trailing um our fair value model the high end of our fair value model for the S&P is just over 20 times so what's happened with this move since November is that in our view prices have run well ahead of the fundamentals now we're bullish on S&P 500 fundamentals but we think we need to allow some time for those to grow into.

The price action at the end of the day when we come back to this valuation question to us it's really hey look at you know we we do think that the equity markets are are due for a digestive phase here it's why we haven't come off of our 5100 yearend Target for the S&P at this point uh despite the run and it's it's even you know we're getting.

Some flashing warning signs out of our our lead uh sentiment IND uh indicator the levkovich index which we've discussed about over the past couple of days as well yes the Euphoria index as well we've covered that here but we got to let you go really appreciate all of your insights here Scott croner City us Equity strategist thanks guys all your.

Markets action ahead stay tuned you're watching Yahoo finance oh.

now job openings coming in at 8.76 million for the month of February that is above.

The 8.73 million that was expected for more on this we have Jennifer Lee Capital markets senior Economist thank you so much for being here with us Jennifer we really appreciate it uh it seems like the market was already kind of digesting and using the ism data from yesterday as a move towards the downside or at least as a potential Catalyst.

Towards the downside help me understand whether or not that is also going to have an impact on the FED how big of a deal is this latest ISM data going to be come the next fed meeting um so good morning and thank you for having me on I mean I think it's not just the ism it's all of the data the data in its totality that will have an.

Impact on the Federal Reserve and and what I got to say after the the job opening data this morning you know my first reaction to be honest was to say what they rose again and that's a reaction I haven't had in a few months but you know overall it was it was mixed report you know it was all on the public sector side the private sector was.

Actually cutting back my industry I believe the sector was on an industry basis it was a little bit mixed so overall it still shows that not a huge change in in the labor market in labor market conditions no probably no impact of anything for what the FED is thinking or what they're thinking already so I think it's just going to be again the.

Totality of of the data ISM numbers by the way as you're mentioning um was were also very a little bit of a surprise you know expanding for the first time in months um and even the the survey uh respondents uh comments were very U um positive I think uh for the for the most part and I tend to put a little B more weight on what they're actually saying.

Than sometimes the the the figures themselves you know we've talked a lot today specifically on this program about some of the labor market numbers that we got today and also looking ahead to Friday I'm also interested in what you're thinking about inflation the next CPI report comes out before pce um we've seen a lot of uh indicators that and now.

The year-over-year numbers have kind of stalled out we've seen super Core X housing uh that is maintained above 4% I believe just when when do you expect to have uh some kind of uh definitive answer on the fed's inflation Target is the 2% ever going to be in sight or are we at risk of accelerating to the upside once.

Again I believe it's going it is going to be coming in sight is just the question is how long is it going to take if it starts to reex cerate again or accelerate again I think that's we're going to have some other issues um but you know as as Fed chair how said you know they're not going to get too excited about a couple of months of.

Sticky uh inflation numbers like January and February just like they didn't get too excited over a couple of months of you know um better inflation reports last year so I think we're going to need at least you know probably like three I'm gonna say three or four perhaps um um better inflation data to uh to make the FED more comfortable more confident.

That inflation is getting back to that 2% rate and that kind of Falls in nicely with our expectation for uh the first bed rate cut to come in July although sometimes when I'm looking at this data I'm sometimes I'm thinking you know they they could be waiting a little bit further a little bit later than that but we'll have to see how that how that.

Fares how that fares did today's jol's data changed that narrative for you no frankly no I mean plus you know as you mentioned earlier just you know at this at the start of the hour that you know this is also leged data but overall you know like yes it was you know openings were up but it was all you know public sector uh it was mixed among among the.

Industries themselves but it shows you know I mean fed share Powell has had like a whole host of phrases that he's been using to describe the labor market what did he say recently like he doesn't see cracks in the labor market it's still strong um it's coming into better balance uh which is another way to say that you know everything is is equally.

Not um so I don't think he's as worried about the job market and he probably and again of course he wants it to cool off a little bit more but he's not worried about having it you know um um um decelerate sharply his more interested in the overall inflation picture especially on the PC and the core PC deflator well nice shout out to the PO.

Phas book there I want to talk about another Central Bank and that's the bank of Japan you're you're noting in uh your note to us here about for foreign exchange about the move that the Yen has made uh weakening to the lowest or weakest level against the dollar something like 30 40 years now the boj recently raised rates but it seems the.

Market is calling the boj's bluff whenever they say something we get a little bit of a market reaction but it's quickly walked back here so how do you see the situation with the boj how does that uh that is a tough one um you know they finally you know came came up and uh you know finally raised rates as we all know at this point Unfortunately.

They sort of washed it all out by saying you know that rates are going to or policy is going to stay accommodative for a long time and by the way we're still buying jgbs um and plus I think from the minutes or or from the summer of opinions it looked like a lot of the members even though they all pushed for this rate hike they also want to make.

Sure that they that everyone knows that they're going to stay accommodated for a long time so they sort of um you know gave with one hand and took away with the other um and that did not help the currency at all and of course now you've got the FED still dealing with a strong economy a very resilient economy and looks like you know and then so now.

There's potential for maybe the FED could you know have a fewer rate hikes and push it off a little bit further into the distance so of course that's going to boost the US dollar and and with the bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance even the with the Ministry of Finance um job and saying that we're not going that we will interview if we have.

To that's not doing the itself any favors especially I think from the policy front from the bank of Japan yes well thank you for that and we'll be on pins and needles here uh Jennifer Lee Capital Market senior Economist and let's take another look at the trending ticker we're watching GE vnova and GE Aerospace officially.

Trading as two separate stocks today GE Aerospace will continue to trade under the ticker GE and GE vnova begins trading under the ticker gev they joined GE Healthcare which became a standalone company last year and so Maddie this kind of brings to mind uh what we saw with dowo Dupont and this was a stock Dupont merged with Dao then it's.

Separated we have camores and you know basically at the end of the day we get three companies you took two companies uh of multiple companies actually over the decades you assembled them and then you kind of uh figured out where the synergies were and you finally dissected them but GE has been on this path for a long time this is a longterm time coming.

And you've seen the share price react positively over the last year or so um so maybe is it sell the rumor you know or sell the fact I don't know here yeah yeah well it is interesting particularly when you look at kind of the valuation Journey that GE has been on uh we remember that this was the most valuable company public company in the world just.

Two decades ago and now today amazing to think and now today obviously it's come a long way to the downside of that that was at about 600 bill in market cap in the year 2000 so obviously a much bigger number in today's valuations it was hitting about 191 billion as of yesterday's close so think about that about a 400 on the Wi-Fi interactive we.

Have a Max chart here if we just show that real quickly so you can see these highs what is that $350 and so yeah it's been stair stepping down and see if they can re uh I guess turn that around to the upside yeah we'll see I mean it's interesting to see what happens with these stock changes I think about some of the stock splits that we've covered.

In the past you anticipate a little bit of a bump up question mark as to whether or not that's going to be the case when it comes to GE but coming up we're going to talk about another big piece of news here the future of Tesla because Shares are on the downside following the delivery numbers that's another sign of troubles that could be worrisome to.

Investors that's coming up after the break n.

He the market selloff is accelerating this morning during a week of economic data from the labor market and from the manufacturing space our next guest is looking at areas where momentum might start to unwind and implementing A playbook to mitigate potential risk with.

Regards to that so joining us now we have Jonathan krinsky bti managing director and chief Market technician Jonathan thank you for being here this morning I want to start with you on some of the volatility that we're seeing because we're seeing that the vix is uh really on a tear today up I think 1.3 points as of the last time that I.

Checked here talk to me about what that is an indication of when you are looking at sort of the technicals and what it means for what this Market is trading on and what they're thinking about what the Federal Reserves next moves might be yeah well I mean ultimately the vix is is primarily um in inverse to what the Market's doing right so well you can.

Have periods with where the vix will go up in a rising tape generally um vix up happens when you get uh Market selling off and I think when you've looked at what's going on in the market over the last few months um it's really a function of massive dispersion so you've had you know the winning stocks the the high momentum stocks doing extremely.

Well and the low momentum stocks doing extremely poor um and so there's been a lot of volatility in the single stock space below the surface but they've just kind of offset each other and so you've kind of had this calm um S&P 500 on the surface and that's coinciding with a low Vic so I think we're now we're starting to see a little bit of that momentum.

Unwind which is typical in in April actually you tend to get um it's actually the worst month of the year on average for long short momentum strategy so you know we're seeing areas like semis that have had an amazing run starting to uh pull back and then you're seeing areas like utilities which have you know lagged over the last few months.

Starting to actually perform well so um there's there's different parts of the market doing different things but ultimately when you get that kind of moment um that correlation Break um that's when you you see the the rising vix like we're seeing today well let's uh you mentioned chip stocks let's focus on the socks here for a second on the.

Wi-Fi interactive I have the ey share semiconductor ETF s soxx here's a year to date you can see we've kind of stalled out as you said over the last month trading sideways there here is the last year so this is actually uh still in an upward Trend it looks like by my crew drawing uh we had this big femon rally how much downside should we expect.

Uh before uh if this stock or if this uh Industry Group is able to regain its highs yeah so you know semis have been one of the best groups in the market for some time now um by many metrics they're as extended as they've been in two decades um this the uh S&P 500 semi index um depending on how you look at it over the last five months biggest rated.

Rate biggest five Monon gain since 2000 um the spread versus 2008 moving average is about as high as we've seen over the last couple decades so it it all says it's you know price for Perfection um and then what's interesting is that while April is generally a pretty good month for the overall market for the S&P and even the NASDAQ it's been one of the.

Worst months of the year for semis over the last decade um it's been down about eight of the last 12 years so you know the the setup there is for some continued weakness you know as far as how much further downside that's tough to say I think we'll you we'll kind of take it day by day but certainly that's one of the biggest parts of this.

Momentum unwind if if if indeed that's what we're seeing right now Jonathan I'm going to oversimplify a field that I know you and Jared are both experts in so please just go with me on this journey here but I know in the technical space you kind of look to the past as an indication of what could be coming in the future how effective is that.

Strategy when we didn't have chat GPT a couple of years ago and more directly I'm kind of asking like does what happen in the semispace make sense anymore in a world where we have ai um I mean that's a great question I think ultimately it comes down to um investor psychology and human emotions.

You know they they go through the same patterns through every cycle and so every cycle is different but ultimately when you see certain um metrics um and certain patterns emerge it's it is you know somewhat consistent over time and so you know we're certainly in a in a you know a new exciting up cycle for the semi aai trade um and it doesn't mean.

That the run is over by any means but C you know I think just if you're talking about the next um you know couple months especially this month in particular I think you just have to be a bit careful um in the semis here but uh yeah certainly an exciting time with some some new technology coming out Jonathan I got a bunch more questions but we do.

Have to leave it here always appreciate you stopping by Jonathan krinsky bti managing director and chief Market technician well t Shares are dropping on news of its first quarter delivery vehicle delivery and production numbers the company delivered around 380,000 387,000 Vehicles the Bloomberg consensus estimates that was that number was.

449,000 now the EV makers saying that the decline in volume was driven by supply side issues including Factory shutdowns stemming from tensions in the Red Sea conflict as well as an attack on its Berlin gigafactory now let's bring in our guest to discuss whether the issue here is supplied or demand Larry Goldberg entrepreneur Tesla investor and.

VC angel thank you for joining us here today um there were your expectations for this number were to the downside a disappointment and then I think uh correct me if I'm wrong the final number was even lower so what do these numbers mean to you yeah it was a big downside disappointment for me the numbers you know I'm not a a I'm not a fan of the.

Issue uh of these deliver numbers being so important because I'm a long long-term investor in Tesla I have a a scenario that shows there multiple different businesses uh coming to fruition uh particularly the energy business and uh in addition the Optimus business so for me the quarterly results are not as important as the trends and.

Where they're going so we're seeing you know new the introduction of a new model in Fremont the refreshed model 3 just beginning to crank up so we don't have production from there we see the Cyber truck just beginning to uh get underway and that's been a very promising uh launch by the way so I expect that we're going to see 100,000 cyber trucks.

Delivered this year um and I think that's going to have a huge impact on uh performance for the year so we're in a really uh we're a transition mode we were warned that this is a you know between waves that was the cfo's phrase in the last earnings po so I expected a down quarter not as down as.

This not as far down as this but seers may have had an impact on it as well as the the startup of the new model 3 in the factory in Fremont I I noticed that you talked about the importance of Trends but we are seeing a trend of declines and EV sales and this is just kind of the latest example of that so if you are a.

Long-term investor doesn't a drop in demand that we are seeing through today's numbers start to scare you a little no you know this this talk about the drop in demand for EES I it's if you actually look at the real numbers globally the global numbers are actually quite promising the um we are reaching a tipping level in many.

European countries and we certainly reached that tipping level in China now China's got its own economic rows and that has an impact on sales in general of vehicles and so you know EVS will follow follow that path um but but we are seeing globally um EV is reaching the Tipping Point against uh ice car so I don't I.

Don't agree with the general impression or the the the the the knock on EVS at the moment I think we're getting to see continued growth in EV sales and we are seeing continued growth in EV sales Larry I want to talk about full service driving something uh basically in a generic sense it's been promised for a long time and it seems like we're.

Finally on the cusp of it how how close are we number one and how big an opportunity is this for some of the auto players full self-driving is really an important I mean it is a critical step and a step that is going to transform Tesla dramatically and we're close the problem is nobody is able to tell you how close.

Because nobody's ever done it before u i I have the latest version of full self-driving I drove it before I left the United States last night it is an amazing piece of software it is truly amazing and it's transformative it is dramatically different than the previous versions of full self driving it it really feels like it's thinking it.

Really feels like it's human it has humanlike Tendencies how far we are away I guessed last year between one and three years I would say that guess remains there I think we you know within one to two years of seeing Tesla declare you know a level five and and start taking responsibility um and you know I'm in.

Europe right now and I was in New York passing through New York last night the number of taxi cabs and uers that are Teslas they quite amazing here in Europe and and in the United States so it looks like the Tesla is a really good fit for a a cab a taxi cab and so the robot taxi opportunity for Tesla is just I mean it transforms the company by several orders.

Of magnitude that's one just one of the opportunities in the test of you know opportunity book right and barring a lot of potential headwinds here in the US at least before that can hit kind of a broader Market but having said that I want to end on a little bit more of a philosophical question we've got about.

60 seconds left for you here on this um is Tesla a tech company or a car company that's an excellent question it's clearly a tech company but it's a tech that is diff that differs from all other tech companies in that it has manufacturing smarts that cannot be equaled by any Manufacturing Company in the United States and China are copying.

Tesla so that's the big differentiator between Tesla and any other tech company in the world Larry this is fun thank you so much for joining us Larry Goldberg entrepreneur Tesla investor and VC Angel as well really appreciate it we're going to keep it moving here because coming up the great debate the fed's path for rate Cuts investors are growing gloomy over.

The chance that the Central Bank could delay rate Cuts until the second half of this year we're going to hear from Dennis lart former Atlanta fed president on what he expects next.

n.

Oh higher for longer seems to be the name of the game at least that's what some investors are starting to believe we got job openings data out this morning coming in at 8.76 million for the month of February just above the 8.73 million.

That was expected now this follows hotter than expected manufacturing reading all of this now C casting Shadows of doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut rates as the US economy shows surprising resilience for more on the fed's path to rate Cuts we're joined by Dennis Lockard former Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Dennis thank.

You for joining us here today um we've heard a lot of Fede recently pow was out last week um what's your sense of where his mind is right now we've seen rate Cuts take off the table steadily steadily but we still have stocks near highs I think he's keeping his options open but uh I think his message is that they're going to be cautious they're.

Going to be patient that there is no rush to uh to start a cycle of rate cuts and overall they resolve continues to be very strong and they're going to get it right so that means that the clock could run for quite some time well how committed are they though to an exact number when it comes to inflation are they still looking at a a tight 2% or.

Are they looking for a little bit more of a range and I ask because it does feel like Powell's commentary has shifted a bit from I'm willing to cause pain in the economy to I'm willing to wait the the target is 2% according to a certain index the pce index over the long run and uh no one on the committee.

Thinks that they're going to stick their Landing perfectly at 2% so it is realistically or pragmatically a range around 2% but I think they would say that the current pace of inflation is above that range so they still have uh some more work to do I you there is an aspect of your question that's worth T commenting.

On and that is I do not see them changing the target there's been a lot of talk about that there's a lot of people who think they should just settle for two and a half or 3% I don't see that happening um we've been talking about inflation here I want to ask all want to get your comments on the jolt stat that we saw this morning a little.

Bit hotter than expected but really the market looking ahead to uh Friday which is a big monthly payrolls number which is surprised to the upside defied a lot of expectations to the upside uh does the resilience continue yeah resilience uh which is sort of capturing the notion that the economy remains strong the economy is tolerating this level of.

Interest rates there's been no real break in the trend uh either in the labor market which is important I think to the committee uh or in growth this morning I looked at GDP now the Atlanta fed's tracker of first quarter 2.8% that's down from the the fourth quarter of last year but it's still an extremely solid growth picture so um you.

Know for now the economy remains resilient when does that resilience start to beg a question about whether or not rates are impacting this economy boy I think that is a question has already been asked and there's been analysis around that question suggesting for example that the mortgage rates are not uh adequately discouraging right uh.

Housing U decisions and that a lot of people are benefiting from having locked in companies are benefiting from having locked in financing at lower rates in in earlier months and and therefore the economy is more impervious to this level of interest rates and I think there's something to that argument I want to ask you about Japan and uh just maybe uh put.

Your central Banker hat back on you were in the industry at the Federal Reserve for years and the bank of Japan facing a currency the Yen which is at 30 or 40e lows versus a US dollar um every time they come out with a counter uh I guess a a counter policy to whatever they're seeing in the market which is usually currency devaluation ation that's walked.

Back pretty quickly by the market what kind of are they in a box how do you see this situation evolving you know I'm not an expert I don't follow Japan as closely as your question would require but um I would say they are trying to bre break out of a box and that box uh is one in which they use the tool of negative interest.

Rates for quite some time they have been on the cusp of deflation on and off deflation for several years and U have been trying to get the inflation rate up they've sort of given up on negative interest rates they are projecting higher inflation um maybe that that the interest rate picture will create a.

Little bit more um demand for the yin uh both domestic and foreign I don't know but uh they're they're really trying now to to to break out of a policy environment they've been in as well as push their economy to higher levels of growth so extrapolate out for me Dennis what you are thinking about the federal reserve's moves throughout the rest of.

This year what percentage chance would you put on a June rate cut uh and and what does that mean about what you're thinking about the number of cuts we might be able to anticipate for the rest of the year yeah it's it's a little bit more ambiguous than it was just a few weeks ago when they came out with the DOT.

Plot um I would say that the upcoming meeting April 30th and May 1st is I I don't see them making any move I think June is still a possibility depends a lot on the uh data that come in but uh I you know as long as the economy is tolerating this level of interest rates and the progress is slow at Best in disinflationary terms I.

I don't see them moving so I think they may push it back uh beyond June still gives them four or five meetings in which to move before year end one interesting Factor because there it's on so many people's minds is the November meeting is after the election it's not just before the election so they have the luxury of not being accused of being.

Political by simply uh doing something at the November meeting really quickly Dennis on a 1 to 10 scale 10 being the most likely How likely do you think it is that they wait until after the election results to change that depends a great deal on how the the the data play out I um you know I certainly would not give it zero.

Probability um I I think it's probably less than 50% now that it's that's a way of saying they're likely to start earlier but um I I I can't rule it out that they'll they'll wait until November or December even before they begin to ease I appreciate the data dependent talking points as always Dennis thank you so much that was really informative.

Dennis lockart former Atlanta fed president joining us to talk all things Federal Reserve appreciate it we're going to have all of your markets action ahead right here on yaho finance so stay tuned for more.

a now Bitcoin pric is falling this morning for second straight day to start the quarter this coming is treasury yields rise the.

Tenure at its highs for the year and we're also seeing strength in the US dollar so Jared and I are over at the board to take a look at some of the market action we're seeing here Jared a lot of red yeah a lot of red Bitcoin down 4% ethereum down almost 6% binance down 4% but you can see this is the most red we've seen in a little while today's.

Price action let me show you the year to date so we can see we have been in this consolidation so at the beginning of the month of March we blasted to record highs and then we came off a bit this decline was a little bit scary you can see this in the one month chart uh we got this nice thrust up but now we've just come back down so year uh if you.

Can really see on the one year this is just a consolidation near highs we've seen this many times before and in an uptrend this is resol to the upside side so if this is an uptrend we'll probably see a little bit more consolidation but it should eventually break ahead now if we take a look at what some of the stocks are doing uh a lot of times these.

Are higher B higher beta so you get them uh moving more than the underlying more than Bitcoin to the upside and to the downside today it's to the downside uh finger eight mining that's Hut that's down 133% Marathon that's down 7% there's a one-year chart but just tons of volatility even more so than the Bitcoin and the underlying well it's.

Interesting given what we're seeing across multiple asset classes we had gold hitting record highs this morning oil hitting highs as well dollar US dollar Index down just slightly which is odd because you would anticipate that the dollar would be stronger well because we got some hot data recently so if you take a look over.

The last two days we did see a strengthening yesterday but now we've just fallen off a bit um this doesn't always move in lock step with economic data but we did see a jolt yesterday uh no pun intended because we did have jolts data out today which is totally separate uh but yeah you mentioned gold as well we can check out what's.

Happening in the gold market and in Futures overall here's gold record high yesterday looks like this is a record high right here so gold really responding to the potential for inflation and we're still seeing right across the screen when it comes to the major indices here but we are going to have to let you all go because coming up.

We've got our new show wealth dedicated to all of your personal finance needs Brad Smith has you guys for the next hour so stay tuned for more.

now wealth earning it growing it and managing it it's more than tracking just.

The latest Market moves it's more than your favorite trending tickers One does not simply build wealth without considering the entire Financial landscape it takes a community and we've built one for you on today's show with the jobs report fast approaching we'll discuss why you should.

Be wary of some economic predictions and future planning how much do you need in your back pocket to retire comfortably plus 20% for what do you feel tipping fatigue when the iPad swivels in your direction we'll discuss welcome to wealth everyone I'm Brad Smith and this is yaho finance's newest.

Guide to building your financial footprint our community of experts will give you the resources the tools the tips and the tricks that you need to grow your money your wealth theme for today smart spending from your credit cards to how much you're tipping your local Barista oh yeah we're going there we take a look at the habits that shape.

Your financial future let's get to your money if we learned anything about March Madness it's that you should not rely on predictions all the time while anyone has a chance to get a perfect bracket completely right there are odds one in 9.2 quintilian actually according to the NCAA now thankfully my March Madness bracket was.

One Nano factor of the Brad Equity Partners 2024 financial planning because as you can see here bad predictions everywhere and a lot of emotional picks as well letting predictions sway your investment decisions could also Lead You astray economic predictions are all the rage and we'll see that play out during Friday's jobs report a key input in the.

Fed's decision-making as investors look for more clarity on the health of the labor market for more on this we're joined by Scott enman who is the financial adviser at gen wealth and host of get ready for the future show Scott great to have you here with us today as we think about prediction pitfalls that some people become too reliant on what.

What is the number one one out there that you see time and time again well first of all I'm going to admit to you that my bracket was in the trash after week one I didn't even get into the second round and still have a chance didn't get one final four team right you know when you think about economic predictions predictions I do love the uh.

Analogy you drew to trying to predict a perfect bracket I you know I'm I'm not here to re on those predictions I think they are valuable to some degree we follow economists we read commentary we look at the economic data but it is just a snapshot when you look at all that data of where we currently are and I think as complex as trying to.

Predict where we're going is it is very much a Fool's errand to really build an investment strategy around those predictions because they're often wrong some of those predictions are very imminent telling or imminent facing as well here for people who are trying to position their investment strategy their portfolio strategy retirement planning.

Or just financial future around things that are far further off how far out should and could they be looking and how they how do they kind of stagger what those timelines look like yeah I I think anyone who is investing in equities should have a longterm strategy and and at gen wealth we talk to our clients all the time about that long-term strategy.

Should be 10 years and longer you you should not really be looking at 12-month predictions and making uh drastic change to your investment strategy certainly asset allocation sector rotation some diversifying moves can be called for uh but to bail out of the market entirely because you think it's about to go down or get into the market at a high which.

Is what a lot of people do can be as we talked about a Fool's errand if you look at that three reasons to avoid economic predictions we already talked about they're off and wrong but it can cause you to do the wrong thing at the wrong time for the wrong reason if you look at covid for example and that's our most recent example of a significant downturn.

Certainly that was a dire economic situation and the market plummeted and that caused a lot of people to jump ship from the stock market but that was in March of 2020 we just recently passed the 4-year anniversary of the pandemic low and the S&P 500 is up 133% cumulatively and 25% annually uh since that time so now.

Granted that's a four-year time frame some people may have jumped back in at some point but they missed a lot of the ride back up if they waited too long technology was resilient during the shutdown when we were all staying at home and the market rebounded quickly that was not something you were Hearing in the economic predictions of course.

Now Past prediction does not always or past performance does not always equal the future success rate here so I mean when we think about and this kind of draws back to my own bracket as we kicked off this conversation a lot of this comes back back to emotion how do you advise those out there to remove emotion from their own planning yeah I.

Think that's a big key and that really is what drives this we as humans we want to be able to control our future and that's really what we're talking about here right we're seeking our clients are seeking Financial Independence they are wanting to control what they can control and they want to really begin to decipher what's going to happen in the.

Future as part of that we can't do it uh but our emotions when we get fearful when the Market's down or we get overly exuberant when the market is up can cause us to make bad decisions so in terms of answering your question how do you control those emotions we really believe working with a financial advisor is one of the best ways to do that and.

Here's why if you have a good financial adviser he's objective he or she is objective first of all they are not emotionally tied to your money like you are you should be emotionally tied to your money I'm emotionally tied to my own personal finances but I'm not to my clients and I have an objective Viewpoint and that can help in the.

Behavioral uh things that come up that can that can keep you from making those bad decisions when we think about where there's so much kind of prediction coming in whether that's in a a 30- second a minute long clip on social media or whether that's one of the Talking Heads uh that hey even I talk to from time to time how can people spot.

Where there are actual there there is credit to the predictions that are coming forward what are kind of the the Baseline guidance that they should be looking for within that and the depth of that prediction if you will yeah I think I think generally the the Talking Heads the 30 second Clips uh if they are a an unbiased Economist that has really tried.

To create their own models and make predictions Based on data uh that's a sound prediction I still wouldn't put 100% of my investment strategy behind that but I do think where you can look for problems is well let's give you an example when you when you get into a down Market people are fear fearful of a recession what do you see pop up more.

And more often ads for buying gold right that's that's the solution here that the the the markets going to go off the deep end but you have to go well why why are they telling me that the Market's going to go off the deep end are they trying to sell me something are they trying to sell me a product do they have my best interest uh at heart here are they.

Looking out for me I think that's one thing would do to self- evaluate uh uh for sure but I think coming back to our original Point spotting whether it is a good thing to follow or a bad thing follow is bad thing to follow is the first step but never put your full investment strategy behind anything that's predicting a short time frame in.

The market you know I I talk about uh I I use an analogy to meteorologists I used to work on television I was a television news broadcaster and I worked with meteorologist so I can say this you know when they do the forecast for tomorrow they've got a pretty good idea of what might happen tomorrow because we're.

We're that close to it right data might be coming out we might be able to uh show some things about inflation we might be able to show some about the jobs report what the FED might do but when you get to the 7-day forecast you know like right now if we looked at what the forecast was for next Tuesday in central Arkansas it might say 75 degrees.

But by the time we get there I'm going to bet it changes it's going to fluctuate one way or the other I think the same is through is true for economic predictions you know the shorter term in a in a about as the time that data comes out there may be a good uh estimation of what's going to happen but if you if you go much farther out if you say what's.

Going to happen in the next 12 months like Bloomberg did in October of 2022 and said there's a 100% uh chance of recession in 2023 didn't happen and they weren't alone I'm not singling out Bloomberg there there were a lot of people saying there was almost guaranteed to be a recession in 2023 over that 12-month period and they.

Turned out to be wrong so long longer term predictions like that are very difficult to come true Scott Inman financial adviser over at gen wealth and host of the get ready for the future show Scott thanks so much for taking the time kicking off today's show with us thank you for having us certainly well coming up taxing times why Beno.

Transactions could cause you a headache if you're not careful we've got you covered though after the break.

now so you want to talk about stock splits you're not alone we're hearing more.

Companies announcing them and investor is now eagerly awaiting Chipotle 50 for one split but what exactly does this mean for shareholders and new investors looking to jump in on some of that action Yahoo finance reporter Brook DePalma has the details on us for us good morning Brad for those new investors who are unaware of what a.

Stock split is let's start there so companies typically could conduct a stock split to make shares more accessible to employees or to a broader range of investors at Key this a lower price point now it also typically happens when a company is performing well the CEO of Chipotle told Yahoo finance it is achieving things that it's.

Set out for in its vision statements and making it a reality now the company's also experiencing an all-time high driven by record revenues profit and growth and right now as you can see here Shares are hovering over $2,800 per share now the stock spit was approved by Chipotle's board but needs to get shareholder approval come June it will.

Then begin trading on a post split basis on June 26 but Chipotle is not alone here other companies have done this most recently Walmart announced a three for one stock split their Executives also said that it wanted to me uh have employees be able to own a piece of the company and Google parent company alphabet as well as Amazon they.

Announced a 20 for one stock split back in 2022 and if you're employ an employee at Chipotle or elsewhere and you want to jump in on action here start with your employer first see if you're able to learn more about opportunities in the market like this and according to mlay 54% of employees actually offer Financial Planning and education.

Workshops so start with your employer first and start asking questions back to you Brad Brooke I just want 50 pieces of chicken for one burrito bowl that's all I'm looking for out there I don't have to keep saying extra chicken if that's the case anyway Brooke thanks so much for breaking this down for us appreciate it.

The deadline for tax season fast approaching but the devil is in the details as they say if you're a business using venmo or other third party payment apps you may be subject to paying taxes on them how can you know let's get to Yahoo finances Molly Morehead what do you have for us here Molly a lot of people perhaps sitting on the edge of.

Their ergonomic chairs on this one hi Brad um yeah so I I can talk about personal transactions on venmo and the tax implications there business transactions on venmo and then just generally things to look out for and be aware of when you're using these apps and this applies not just to venmo but PayPal Dell whatever third third party.

Payment app you're using so the first one personal transactions a lot of us do this on I'm happy to report this is not reportable taxable income this is things like you and your friend go out to dinner you pay the bill your friend venos you for her share uh your mom sends you a 100 bucks on venmo for your birthday or you and your.

Roommate Shir bills you pay the light bill this month your roommate venos you for their half to settle up all of this is just uh gifts and exchanges between friends and family it's not taxable income the IRS is not interested okay so what about small businesses out there Molly that are trying to make sure that they're running things by the books yeah.

If if you have a side gig or you run a small business and you take money via venmo or another app this is income it's it's taxable you got to put report it on your income taxes every year so think about somebody who does a um lawn care or pet care business on the side and gets paid on venmo somebody who um makes and sells a product like you know.

Original stationer or graphic t-shirts whatever um those are those are things you're doing for a profit uh you're earning money off it and it goes on your income taxes now generally what are some things that users of these thirdparty apps should be aware of as well um well getting back to the personal versus business um you know every now and then.

Take a look at those transactions when they come in and make sure that something that's personal is not tagged goods and services because that could um cause confusion at tax time if it looks like something you got paid for um in your business and then if you do um run your business via venmo then you're going to get a tax form called a 1099 K.

And that will include all of these business transactions that's what you're going to use to report these on your income taxes in 2023 you'll get a 1099 K if you had $20,000 or more of transactions on one of these apps so it's a pretty high threshold Molly thanks so much for laying out the threshold as well as as what a lot of.

People who have those side streams of income and side gigs might need to know especially about some of those app payments thanks so much Molly Morehead according to data from e- marketer credit cards will remain the most popular payment method in the United States through the next year with total credit card transaction value reaching.

$3.8 trillion in 2025 but knowing which credit card to use and why that can be a struggle different cards offer different rewards fees and so forth and the landscape is changing cardless offers options for businesses looking to make their own credit cards plus uh much more here and we're joined now by the co-founder and President Michael spell.

Fogle to discuss more about the space Michael great to have you here what was the opportunity that you identified and and where you're seeing the largest shift that gives cardless an opportunity to really excel in this market well first of all thank you for having me on today it's a pleasure to be here uh you know we started this company.

Five years ago and cardless helps Brands build credit cards like you said so for any CMO out there that has uh consumer business they're thinking about loyalty a credit card in building one should be on top of their list and we make that easy and so all of this considered there's been a lot of movement over the past couple months at this juncture.

Whether that be consolidation in the industry whether that be some of the different rulings that have been passed down or new entrance and and one of those new entrance actually being Robin Hood as well we had the opportunity to speak with Vlad tev our own executive editor Brian sazy did about why they're entering into this market and what.

Customers should expect want to play a quick clip of that and get your thoughts on the other side as well about this newest entrance and what it means for the space one of the things that's really special about this card is it's a premium card so uh it's a card that you know to even get reward Wards and perks.

Approaching this you'd have to be a high net worth individual at other places and most don't even offer anything like it and we wanted to make it available to uh all gold customers and gold is as little as $5 a month right so it's it's really intended to be a mass Market product so when choosing what card is right for an individual for a person for me where.

Should the prioritization be what's the kind of mental checklist that people should be running through yeah so first of all you want a credit card that relates to who you are or rewards you in the places that you spend there's a lot of diversity in credit cards today Robin Hood is a good example of that building a product that I think.

Will be very popular with Gen Z Millennials uh of course I think it has some downsides and I'm happy to speak to that but ultimately the vision of cardless and companies that do what we do is to expand access as well as uh the types of products out there you can get a really spoke product that is unique to your needs so we have credit cards today.

With tap Portugal lot time Airlines Simon Property Group which is one of the largest mall operators in the United States and our hope is that we can help Brands build cards that cater to a specific product need and for consumers they can get rewards that actually relate to their life day-to-day during times where consumers may be trying to.

Best figure out what the likelihood of a recession looks like we hear that come in the consumer confidence data time and time again uh and it's one of the larger swearers of sentiment out there and perhaps purchasing decisions and how somebody is purchasing whether that be with cash or with card how much do they then also tend to tap into some of those.

Rewards and the Redemption of those rewards during those times too you know credit cards are powerful products and with great power comes great responsibility uh if used correctly credit cards can provide fantastic cash back points earnings redemptions that can fund vacation and other expenses that would otherwise be.

Costly out of pocket expenses each year so the thing to get caught up with the credit cards is what is the interest rate what are the fees in the product and can you use it responsibly cardless cards for example many of them don't have annual fees many of them don't have late fees or foreign transaction fees so we want to help consumers use credit.

Responsibly which can be a tool that they can wield you know Michael increasingly I I'm tapping to pay I think a lot of people out there as well maybe you doing the same here so all of that considered how far away do you believe we are from a future where we're not even pulling out a piece of plastic from our wallets or from our pockets or.

Purses out here it's funny you say that uh one of the reasons we pick the name cardless it's a bit provocative is because we think the future of credit cards is cardless and it's sooner than you think so uh ultimately in the United States I still think this is years away but if you look at places internationally China.

Comes to mind especially there's almost no cash in the system and almost all payments are actually contactless so Apple pay Google pay mobile wallets uh ven Mo even those are going to be the prevalent forms of payments to come Michael spog who is the cardless co-founder and President Michael thanks so much for taking the.

Time here appreciate it thank you for having me certainly well coming up why a lack of financial literacy that could cost you dearly we've got much more on wealth after the break you're watching Yahoo finance.

yeah.

you might feel like you already know everything that there is to know about keeping your finances in check but only 57% of American adults are financially literate and 15% of people lost over $10,000 due to lack of financial literacy according to zipia now that's a.

Lot of bread to lose over just not knowing any better so to break down what you might be doing wrong with your finances we've got Andre jeanpierre who is the ases advisor founder and managing director here with us got to know first and foremost you think about some of the biggest client mistakes that you've seen in the past what is the number one.

Mistake that repeatedly comes up in some of the conversations and some of the different instances you've seen well first off hello Brad it's great to see you again and to start off uh the biggest Financial mistake that we're seeing uh clients make whether they're older or younger is the habit of mental accounting not knowing exactly what.

Their numbers are uh whether it is having a written Budget on in in place tracking your expenses and having a written financial plan the difference between having Financial wishes and financial goals is having that financial plan on paper and that budget on paper you didn't have to come from my neck like that right out of the gate Andre I.

I'd like to think I'm pretty good at Mental Math but apparently not good enough um you know it works it keeps us honest but seeing the numbers in black and white it's a sobering feeling sometimes for a lot of people to see it in black and white certainly what what's step number one then to kind of make sure that you reverse that how do you.

Make sure that you put the steps in place to say hey I'm not just going to do this mentally anymore continue to fall into this mistake or other mistakes the solution is to put pen to paper uh get that that budget in place start tracking your expenses uh if you work with a financial adviser or a financial planner they can help you with.

That and get that financial plan and that budget on paper so you can start turning your wishes into goals and make them actionable items it's interesting there's there's kind of a generational divide of mistakes that we've also been tracking and we know that you have been hearing as well across your client base what is that divide look like based on.

Different Generations uh different Generations uh have different reliable sources of information and who they trust now with my younger clients gen Z and younger Millennials I do see a large issue with them trusting trusting social media posts a little too much uh online Financial gurus that are uh unvetted.

Unregulated and they are able to speak very eloquently and make things sound too good to be true but absolutely too good to ignore um my advice to those people are to stick with reliable uh sources of information reputable sources of information that are more trustworthy and can avoid Financial ruin in the long term you know it's interesting you know.

While we're talking about Generations here every generation seems to have a unique concern that's aligned to their specific stage of life I was looking at a Lincoln Financial Group study earlier this morning that was just published gen Z paying for education and expenses student loans top three concern there Millennials I mean how many economic.

Challenges can Millennials us continue to face uh Gen X most concerned with having enough income in retirement across the ranges of concerns here what are some of the mistakes that you're now seeing the generations be a little bit more cognizant of and do better about their planning for I think Brad uh the younger.

Generation and Millennials as we go further into the information age we're seeing people have more and more access to information more and more access to proven strategies uh but what I would advise in regards to that is to understand that everyone has their unique journey to to financial literacy and and and Financial Freedom so no two.

Plans are the same no two investment strategies are the same because each individual is their own individual and they're not like anyone else so I would advise everyone that's listening if you take the time know your own individual goals and how you can get there you can have your individual financial plan and you can avoid trying to follow the plans.

Of other people because like you mentioned people are in different stages of life with different financial needs so following the advice of someone that is in a different stage of life or has different needs might not be in your best interest you talk about stages of life and we'll we'll end here because this could perhaps be a week in itself.

When we think about absolutely um when we think about Millennials and stepping into planning families at this juncture right now what is the because I know and I see the the we were talking about the little basketball back there I know that you've got uh a family and what is the number one thought that people should be Millennials should be thinking through.

With their finances as they are doing that Family Planning as well the number one thought that I would bestow on any young investor is you do not have as much time as you think uh that basketball is my my son's basketball he um is loving the tournament right now and I'm thinking I remember some of these players when they were playing in.

Aou when they were in seventh grade eighth grade uh and now I'm watching them on TV uh we don't have as much time as we think um I've watched people over my career career say wow when did I become 35 when did I become 45 when did I become 55 you don't have as much time as you thinking in the world of investing time is your best asset make.

Sure that you use it on your side because as they say in sports father time is undefeated you rather have them on your side then on the other side Andre great reminder there to end things off Andre jeanpierre who's the Asus advisor founder and managing director appreciate it thanks Brad thanks well the amount of.

Money us adults think they need to retire comfortably is at an all-time high Americans believe that they need nearly $1.5 million to retire take a breath that's according to Northwestern Mutual that data to break down what this means for your future we've got Yahoo finance's very own Carrie Hannon Carrie my goodness all right I'm just going to.

Take a sip of water while you break this one down for us well hi Brad thanks yeah that is a pretty big number but the the problem that we see is there's this huge gap between what people say they're going to need and what they actually have right now they say the average balance is $88,500 now this is a a quite a Chasm I.

Would say and so people um kind of have this number and they hope to get there uh so that's a bit concerning because uh we've had several things going on lately with Rising inflation people have started to dip into their retirement accounts to a certain degree which is really making this even more difficult but what we're seeing is one reason that.

Number is sort of the highest it's ever been according uh to this study is that younger Generations are throwing up even a bigger number than that 1 Point 5 million that they're going to need to retire and and be the reason why they're doing that is because they expect to live to at least a 100 and so they're calculating that into that number.

They're putting out there they're they're already planning for longevity and the great news is they have started saving earlier than any other generation Millennials and gen z um have started quite a bit earlier um and say Jen Z in particular started around TW the age of 22 uh versus a boomer who started around age 37 so they they've started earlier.

And I put that down to Auto enrollment thanks to 41k plans putting people in there younger Generations are starting to save earlier that's super important for longevity and I think we need to pay attention to it one big gap that that came out of the study is Gen X is really you know the first Gen X is going to hit 60 next year and they are scrambling the.

Number they said they needed is is closer to 1.6 million yet they have an average balance of around 109,000 so you know we really need to be pay attention and finally Brad I would say the one big concern that I saw coming out of this is a third of Americans have done nothing to change the course of this they've done nothing.

To change the fact they realize that they're behind in their savings uh but they've done nothing like as simple as doing a financial plan running a retirement calculator know Fidelity Vanguard a ARP they all free ones just get the thinking started working with a financial adviser so that is something people can do to start taking control.

You know the the number people use is you need 10 times uh your pre-retirement income at age 67 uh to retire comfortably and and the rough number is you should be socking away 15% of your annual salary the combination of employer contributions in your own in order to get there so so these are some things we need to think about inflation.

Has played a big role in sort of uh making people focus more on paying bills today Alliance had a study out to the in the past week or two looking at the role the rising inflation has paid in walloping these retirement Savers accounts and their ability to save going back to that number Carrie $ 1.46 million where do people want that money.

Should that be invested should that be under a mattress should that be in you know the cat's uh play tree or whatever I I I don't know where do you put it at I love it uh well you know it's got to be invested for the most part but the truth of is when when they ask people what number it was that magic number they let's put it they threw a dart.

Right they they maybe you know sort of thought about the longevity issue but I think it's a lot of dart throwing but when you ask people what specifically they have right now that lower number that they did look at that they looked at what they had in their 401K IRAs uh savings accounts outside assets and so that number is pretty accurate to what.

People actually have right now and that's a red flag if they anticipate needing uh in the millions and more and they haven't even thought about and I always harp on this Brad but health care costs and retirement I mean these are easily six figures out of pocket after the age of 65 and people forget that that's going to be a big ticket item for.

Them yeah I mean especially if you're living to 100 as some of the Millennials are expecting out there a lot of us anticipating we'll get hands on Tony Stark's Arc Reactor I suppose Carrie thanks so much for taking the time here thanks Fred definitely coming up is tipping getting out of control here oh yeah we're stepping on some toes here.

Today most Americans seem to think so we'll dive into the impact of tipping culture on businesses workers and customers on the other side of this break.

oh now we got a key look into the labor market.

This morning with the February jolts report joltz tells us how many job openings hirings and separations took place in a given month in February we saw the number of job openings tick slightly higher but remaining relatively flat meanwhile layoffs were a touch higher as well showing that the labor market remains tight so how can workers.

Navigate this environment joining us now we've got Shabu Hindu dirt who is the founder of the empowered planning thank you so much for taking the time here today first and foremost you took a look at this report you kind of look through all of the different data pieces and try to get a sense of where there is still strength in the job openings out there.

Or where there is more churn than expected want to just get your Top Line takeway things are relatively unchanged however employers it's kind of Shifting in their favor they can be a little bit pickier about who they're hiring and I think a lot of job Hunters are feeling that crunch they're trying to freshen up their own personal brand so.

They can become more attractive to employers where it kind of was flipped around a year ago yeah it was interesting within the report in February job openings increased in finance and insurance state and local government excluding education Arts entertainment Recreation all these things considered where are there.

Opportunities to be found in this labor market from your assessment there are so many job openings in education at all different levels from teachers to administrators and the same thing with the healthcare industry there is a wide variety of jobs in demand and this is also trickling down to uh accountants the financial.

Industry so there are specific in those Industries a lot of jobs are currently available there's also of course with the Advent of new technology consideration for companies where they might have I don't know robots whizzing around a factory and manufacturing jobs or where there might be the Advent of generative AI taking on some other.

Writing jobs in some cases which was actually much of the conversation and negotiations with some of the screenwriters last year and making sure that they were not getting replaced all of these things considered how do people look for a new position when there are fewer openings that takes place as a result of new technology that might.

Enter into the fry I think the number one thing is to be Flex I and to open our minds to what skill sets you develop that AI cannot take over but can complement things that you're doing and allow for efficiency and that's really important is to also do an audit of your personal brand on Google see what's coming up see if there's social media.

Things that don't Ally with your professional aspirations and make sure that personally your brand is really strong it it's one thing as well here to get replaced perhaps by generative a I but it's another thing for for artificial intelligence to screen you out how can make people make sure that as they're applying for that dream job.

Or a new position that they're creating a strong profile for themselves that's going to get them through to the hiring manager and into that perhaps in-person conversation that's a great question we have to look at AI as our friend instead of looking at it like it's the enemy here indeed came out with smart sourcing it's their AI powered product and it's.

Helping employers get instant recommendations on candidates who are actively searching so as a candidate actively searching means you've been active on their site in the last 30 days and through indeed's updated profile as the candidate you can put in unique skills um any other kind of unique aspects of yourself and skills that.

You've acquired that they can highlight for you so it's going to feel less of a manual effort on both ends and there's quicker access to scheduling people will be able to get hired faster because jobs hunting on both sides employer for and for the job Seeker is really inefficient so AI is going to hopefully marry those two together to make it easier to look.

For a job Shabu H thank you so much for taking the time here today of course founder of empowered planning joining us here on Yahoo finance thank you thank you certainly so picture this you're paying for your morning coffee all of a sudden you're prompted to add a tip to the order you might be thinking to yourself you don't want to be cheap but.

With more and more stores adding tip options is it possible that tipping culture is getting a little of out of hand yes we're going there well it turns out you're not alone according to a new survey from wallet Hub nearly three in four Americans believe tipping culture has gotten out of control and more than half of the respondents believe.

Businesses are replacing employees salaries with customer tips joining us now we've got Courtney Norris Oklahoma State University assistant professor of hospitality and tourism management to help break this all down for us great to have you here with us cordney so we got to know right off the bat where does the salary end and where does tipping begin.

That is a great question and you know you really have to think about where you are and where you are dining or where you're ordering if you are standing at a counter ordering a drink or food from that person they are most likely making the standard minimum wage which varies by state and if you're sitting in a restaurant being served by a bartender.

Or a server they are most likely making a sub minimum wage and tips make up more than half of their income so if you're at a counter tipping is cool if you want to do it but you're definitely not obligated in any way um but tipping in a restaurant where the server is making a sub minimum wage kind of makes or breaks their livelihood you know it's.

Interesting that you bring up state State and that's a very important component that that you let off with a moment ago we think about California we think about what took place specifically with companies like Chipotle and uh needing to make sure that as they're paying this new higher minimum wage where the customers may say okay well.

You're getting that higher minimum wage now so we're not as inclined to tip how is that going to perhaps and excuse my pun here but how is that going to tip the scale one way or the other um you know I think as people become more aware of what individuals are making it's going to impact tips in general um you know and but you don't.

Know state byst state I mean that's a lot of different minimum wages so California they may be making 13 $15 an hour but in Oklahoma they're making $23 cents so do you not tip or do you tip depending on that and I guess just you know knowing the rules of the place that you're in and the visiting um and what that minimum wage looks like for that.

Employee you know it's a great point and we think about the changes that have been made even in New York here with some of the delivery apps and tipping after you've already taken on delivery instead of adding it prior to have we have we noticed any considerable shift it's early innings in this but I I imagine that there's going to be some.

Type of Delta between what the tips were like and the propensity to tip prior now with this change implemented uh that customers might say all right well I've forgotten about that order or what I even had delivered yeah the uh the digital tip the research in the academic space hasn't really caught up with the digital.

Transformation that's happened in the tiing TP The Tipping space excuse me um and so there isn't any academic insights that I can offer there other than you know what I as a consumer also feel and you know during covid we were all too ready to tip extra and make that happen for that employee because they were out there making us deliveries and now I.

Think that that's cooled off a lot and people are losing their interest in going above and beyond to tip that employee more money you know just lastly while we have you here cordney my first job was in the service industry I I worked for a great place called The Stadium Grill in Westchester Pennsylvania and then uh.

Went on and worked at one of the diners nearby thereafter tipping was vital to being able to make sure that I was having enough to make sense continuing to work at that job what is perhaps just a moment of mindfulness here as people are going into any type of capacity where they are spending where they can think about their checklist for.

Tipping you know I think first and foremost it's you know am I sitting down in ordering or am I standing up in ordering and if you're standing up and ordering that's just an extra addition on top of their hourly wage whereas you know if you're sitting down that is your tip is the prod major source of their income that is all of that's coming.

Because they're not getting a paycheck per se because it's all taken from taxes so the money that they're making is all in tips so sitting down or standing to order I think that's the first thing you should ask yourself and you know is this person going above and beyond if they did a little bit extra for me and I am standing at the counter to order then go.

Ahead and tip them a little bit if you feel so inclined I think a lot of people feel that social pressure as you're standing in front of that person with a you know tablet in front of you and you're like hey they're watching me like I feel like I have to tip and I feel like that has to stop you you can't feel that you shouldn't feel that social.

Pressure because that person's making a standard minimum wage whereas in the restaurant where they're not standing over you those people need that tip in order to continue doing that work certainly Courtney thanks you so much for taking the time here giving us some helpful tips here on tipping Courtney Norris Oklahoma State University.

Assistant professor of hospitality and tourism management we appreciate it thank you so much certainly student borrowers listen up an important deadline right around the corner much more on wealth after the break you're watching yaho.

Finance h.

M now if you have student debt listen up CU a major deadline is just around the corner while some borrowers automatically qualif if for President Biden's one-time Account Adjustment others only have.

Until April 30th to take action Yahoo finances Rick Newman has been all across this one and he's got the details for us a hey yeah President Biden's doing a bunch of different things he tried to cancel student debt for just about everybody and he couldn't get away with it the Supreme Court didn't let him do that so he's rolled out a bunch of.

Smaller programs and this one uh is for people who may qualify for uh income related debt uh disqualification based on they've been paying for 20 years 25 years I mean when you've been paying for a certain amount of time based on your income you may get some of that discharge so some of this happens automatically but some of it doesn't and.

It depends on uh whether the federal government administers your student uh loans or whether a private uh a private administrator registers your student loans so you need to do that what you need to do is go to student a.gov and uh look at first of all make sure you have an account then look at your loans and there's a thing called a.

Consolidation form there so what you can do to make sure that uh you're going to get this benefit if you qualify for it is go through that process the deadline for that is April 30th uh that's called consolidating your debt so you basically get them all in one place uh administered by the federal government and then you may or may not uh qualify.

For for some of this relief but about 900,000 people are going to get at least a little bit of help here so it's worth doing and even if you don't qualify um if you've been paying uh for several years and you're getting to that point 20 years um when you might qualify you will sort of see the progress you're making so it's just a good thing you.

Want to do we only got about 30 seconds left is is the thinking here that this would also allow more people to be freed up from that debt and then perhaps cater some of their spending towards a new home or Family Planning what may have well if you're President Biden I think the goal is to get reelected uh but yeah this is aimed at.

People who have been paying their student debt I mean this is a federal program that says um based on your income if you've been paying consistently you may qualify to have like the last uh two years three years written off so it's to get you know to get people who qualify for that I mean that's in the law so if you qualify get.

Your benefit absolutely Rick thanks so much for tracking this breaking it down for us everyone that does it for us right now I'm Brad Smith thanks so much for watching wealth we'll see you tomorrow at 11: a.m.

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