Stock market on the present time: Dow nabs 8th straight winning session, S&P 500 marches help in direction of myth high

hello and welcome to Market domination I'm Julie Hyman that's Josh Lipton live from our New York City headquarters we are giving you the ultimate investing Playbook to help tune out the noise and make the Right Moves for your money and here's your headline Blitz getting you up to speed 1 hour before the closing.

Bell rings on Wall Street you know I think the consumer has definitely been a little bit weaker since 2021 and we've seen spending in discretionary categories uh not quite at the levels that we saw pre um for during the pandemic and coming out of the pandemic um we're definitely seeing examples of consumers trading down uh.

Looking to buy you know better priced items and maybe not getting the premium product big Pharma coming in to help novax out uh novax in that deal $1.2 billion and that includes uh co-c commercialization of the covid vaccine that's the one that's currently on the market as well as future the combo flu and covid vaccine that they've been.

Working on for quite some time if you recall novaa was initially working on just a flu vaccine before the pandemic so this is kind of going back to the roots we had a really strong quarter we grew 26% year-over-year we expanded our margin to over 18% at the Restaurant level and we comp 5% so we think that the consumer is still very resilient and.

We're very excited about some of the things we're putting out there you know we just launched steak this week on Tuesday we launched a a grass-fed pasture rais steak and had a record day for the company on Tuesday so a lot of good momentum all around we got one hour to go until the market Clos on this Friday so let's take.

A the look at the major averages sponsored by tasty trade we've got the Dow here are leading gains once again today and set for its eighth straight gain uh eight sessions in a row we've got it right now up about 100 points about a quarter of 1% the S&P 500 up about a tenth of 1% and the NASDAQ little change lately to the downside all.

Of this stepping back to what we heard this morning on consumer sentiment at a six-month low and inflation expectations ticking up now lately we've had a sort of bad news this good news dynamic in the market but on the flip side we had some fed speakers today saying that they were going to hold the line or they expected likely to hold the line on.

Rates this year so that doesn't help matters then for stocks either and if you look at what's going on in the treasury market whereas that worse than expected data this morning might lead you to believe that yields were lower they're not they're higher by a little bit ticking back up to 4 and a half% on the 10-year so let's look at the sectors.

Here in the S&P 500 to see how that all of that is shaking out here that's a year to date so let me change it on over to to what we're seeing in today's session energy uh in the lagered position here today along with consumer discretionary and real estate consumer staples and financials um are up the most today but really not necessarily a.

Lot of Rhyme or Reason and I want to take a quick look here at the trending tickers that we are watching here on the Yahoo finance platform today and then we'll dig a little bit more deeply into them in just a moment here so here is what is trending today let's wait for it to populate we've got novavax which is almost doubling in today's session up by.

94% on a new partnership with sopi having to do with its covid vaccine Taiwan semiconductor trading Higher by about 4% as well so um those are a couple of the trending tickers that our users are taking a look at today Josh all right Julie let's check in on another trending ticket here sweet green Shares are surging after the company.

Raises its sales predictions for the year so this stock moving higher a couple uh couple metrics to point out Revenue did top estimates they also did raise their same store sales forecast for the full year so now they're town the street we looking for same store sales growth they said of as much as 6% so that was a tick up Analyst at City.

Looking things over now they are actually neutral Nam so they're on the sidelines but uh they say listen this company hitting on multiple cylinders they highlight the Top Line momentum they're seeing improving margins and a new product pipeline you know this stock Julie surgeon today it's up about 175% so far this year so you've probably.

Heard about Chippy the robot that makes chips big area Focus but there is also a salad making robot that apparently there's a lot of enthusiasm around infinite kitchen infinite kitchen it sounds just so big brain doesn't it infinite kitchen um and the company says it's going to open seven new locations with that salad making robot uh this.

Year and then they're going to retrofit three to four restaurants with the robot as well um also Jonathan Neeman the CEO saying that those robotic Kitchen locations will generate sales of about 2.6 million this year on average so that's interesting as well speaking of Jonathan Neeman uh Yaga Finance this morning brief had the chance to speak.

With him today and this what he said about the latest results we do expect to be adjusted eid. profitability uh profitable this year um we have not guided to a timeline on on net income profitability but you will see significant leverage on the business this year as we continue to grow our Top Line and and hold our GNA relatively.

Relatively flat so you know profitability still not quite there as of yet although if you look at adjusted eida that's the that's the metric yeah it hasn't I'll tell it has not discouraged investors 240% of it's the Nvidia of salads that's what it is it's the Invidia of Sals okay wait wait you you folks if you don't.

Know this famously Josh lipon is never been to a Chipotle have you that I can remember have you been to a which actually is just as bad as saying you've never been have have you been to a sweet I have not I have not I think if I'm going to make a choice there it's going to be the burrito just so you know but I'm open sweet GRE I was off it for a.

While I did it too much yeah back in they back in maybe we'll go next week yeah no we won't don't lie to me Josh taking a look now at shares of Taiwan semiconductor that stock is rising his April sales jumped nearly 60% from last year why we care about Taiwan semi Julie because listen this this is the biggest contract chipmaker on the planet that's.

Why we care and they they have good news they say listen April sales Rose 60% to about 7 billion from a year ago um and why we talk about them they make chips for pretty much everybody we talk about on this show right Apple to Qualcomm to AMD to Nvidia everyone you can think of um and so when you see that kind of strength from tsmc investors I think.

Begin to think okay well maybe some of those customers are seeing some better ahead for their businesses too yeah I mean not only is it the biggest contract chipmaker it's pretty much the biggest one specifically for NVIDIA to make its most advanced chip so that's also why people see this as a sort of bell weather if you will or good indicators.

As to what's going on in the broader industry as we keep reminding folks we don't get Nvidia earnings until May 22nd so people are reading every little tea leaf that they can get here Taiwan send me um definitely part of the those tea leaves to see how BR chip industry is doing and move really move the chips as a whole in the trade today indeed moving.

On stocks mixed today with the Dow on track for another day of gains here the headline for the economies consumer sentiment we know the preliminary report from this morning coming in much lower than economists had anticipated for more let's bring in Dan Skelly managing director at Morgan Stanley wealth management Dan it is good to see you so.

I got some more green on the screen today J the Dow here on track for its eighth winning session in a row Dan what do you make of this Market and and where do you think we go from here sure and thanks so much for having me on this afternoon so what we would say is the selloff that we saw since late March uh was really more of an.

Adjustment selloff right and you saw frankly a lot of the same leaders heading into the the peak and March outperformed during the selloff be it technology or energy or some of the others and you actually saw um some of the traditional and more yield oriented sectors continue to last so again this informed us that it wasn't so much a.

Growth scare it was more of an adjustment in the markets where the market obviously as everyone has talked about all week continue to price out um aggressive fed cuts um aggressive fed Cuts but that's not what we're hearing from the FED right you know you had a couple of other fed uh speakers today who seem to indicate they're going to be.

Quite patient do we believe that so listen I would say there's been and our economics team led by Ellen zeter has highlighted there has been some notable surprises in the first couple of months of this year that we could actually see reverse in the next couple of months so namely shelters and rents we think might be on more of a.

Disinflation path in the second half uh we continue to see widespread penetration of immigrant labor which is happening at lower wage Clips on average so we think the slowdown in wages that we've seen somewhat may continue uh and then just lastly Goods uh seemingly continue to disinflate with China exporting um deflation with all the.

Excess capacity going on there so look I think there's some reasons to believe some of these surprises May reverse our official call at the moment is for still three Cuts starting in September of this year Dan I'm interest as you look ahead here what you think the next catalyst is for this Market some are are already looking ahead to Nvidia earnings what do.

You think how important is that print for the market so that's an excellent question and I would argue a lot of the teup if you will for NVIDIA has already been revealed because we just heard from all the big hyperscaler Tech platforms over the last two weeks increase their Capital spending so the likelihood that.

Nvidia is going to at least meet if not maybe even again exceed expectations has been rising as all the big Tech players are saying hey we're spending more on these themes where else is that playing out uh very kind of uh uh nuanced in some of the power plays you've seen utility nuclear and gas plays start to see big earnings revisions because all.

Of the big Tech platforms are spending on data center infrastructure this is all coalescing around the same theme you mentioned which is nvidia's leadership and AI so yeah I would say it's certainly a catalyst but more to the point we want to see overall earnings achievability and as we've now printed 90% of S&P market cap weighted the.

Reality is we're on track for mid to high single digit earnings growth this year which is kind of a slow grinding Catalyst one that we think is still important made all this uncertainty um and when you're looking at where to deploy right now would you rather play something like Nvidia directly or are you looking at that sort of AI adjacent.

Ecosystem yeah another excellent question and and look even looking at the first four and a half months of this year the Magnificent 7 from last year has narrowed Into The Fab Four and you're not seeing all the same monolithic performance that you saw 18 months ago so we've had exposure to Nvidia we.

Continue to in in the portfolio um but to your point we are seeing this tremendous opportunity across other idiosyncratic uh ecosystem and infrastructure plues like power uh and potentially gas we're see that also just in what we call the Fortune 100 the companies that are well capitalized quality names frankly across a host of.

Industries whether it be manufacturers Health Care financials and to your question this is where you're truly starting to see some players starting to kind of gradually adopt Ai and starting to see some improvement in their earnings now it hasn't been widespread just yet but this is almost acting like a put option on the rest of the market.

Because I think the general consensus is that more often than not AI adoption is going to lead to better earnings power Dan next week you know we're going to hear from some some retailers I want to get you out here on this including the world's largest retailer Walmart a bell weather for the consumer what is your general take there Dan on the consumer.

Right now you know healthy resilient or or showing some signs of cracks yeah I don't mean to punt on the question but it's a mixed bag and it's really a reflection of this phenomena of a two- trck economy where interest rates have really become the dividing line between the halves and the Have Nots this is playing out across frankly the.

Corporate sector in terms of large versus small cap uh Co companies that are strong balance sheet net cash and strong free cash flow versus unprofitable and to your point this is playing out very acutely in the consumer sector and we've heard about uh this kind of again bifurcation among consumer spend Trends in the last three weeks via.

Earning season in a way frankly I haven't seen as acute in years and so if you just look at a handful of examples whether it be uh restaurant spending and more rotation to food at home whether it be the Divergence between corporate travel with some expectations of fed Cuts as we talked about in potential m&a in Deal Flow versus domestic vacation.

Spend which was a completely kind of reopening Revenge trap Tailwind a couple years ago you're seeing this bifurcation in terms of the high-end the well capitalized companies and everyone else and the question has always been everyone's trying to figure out is it a hard Landing or a soft Landing the way I'm looking at it is.

More so in terms of this being an unknown flight path coming out of this pandemic with historic uh inflation and then aggressive fed tightening I don't think there is any playbook for this but the one thing that we continue to look at is whether or not the one track can continue to hold up the overall averages and I think there's some meaningful.

Evidence that the second track is starting to drag things down overall pretty meaningfully so this is something we continue to uh monitor closely Dan Skelly thanks so much happy Friday happy Friday thank you thanks we're just getting started here on Market domination coming up Novac announcing a multi-billion dollar deal.

With French drug maker sop Fe those Shares are soaring and then some we're going to speak to an analyst on the other side about that deal and it's the latest edition of our series goodbye or goodbye we'll take a deep dive into two stocks to help you make the best choices for your portfolio stay tuned more Market domination after this.

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Sh now Novac Shares are skyrocketing up nearly 100% the move higher comes after company announced a multi-billion dollar deal.

With French drug maker sopi the terms of that co-exclusive licensing agreement include co- commercializing novax's covid-19 vaccine as well as developing a covid-19 influenza combination vaccine here with more in the new chapter for the biotech company we've got myang momani Riley Security's managing director and group head of healthc care.

Um an interesting situation today that seems to have effectively brought back novaa from the brink there were cash concerns around this company is that how you would characterize that announcement today yeah thanks for having me yeah I think that going concern status on their balance sheet that coming away is is a big deal uh obviously having a.

Conglomerate of vaccine Bell brothera like sanif uh choosing to partner with a company like noax which does have this agued next Generation recombinant protein platform uh obviously uh is is a validation from a platform technology standpoint but the the big takeway from uh what what headlines have been about a you know French conglomerate rescuing uh.

A us uh pharmaceutical company that was struggling in a post-pandemic era uh that that is absolutely true and and it makes the the company and the stock investable for for many investors today you know more investable Myan it was interesting just to hear some of the language your colleagues were kind of using on the street today to describe.

This you know I saw one analyst um say this was transformative for the company in his words um do you think that's true transformative or is that overstating it I I I think I how I look at it is is more like the next chapter uh to be written in the back story um uh again I I I don't want to be in any way not not be honest about an objective about the.

Realities of what needs to still happen about the uh execution on the covid market as a whole obviously uh you know in the in the past couple of years uh we have completely misread how the vaccination up uptick rates would look like and then in terms of nox being able to come to the market in a in a timely way uh like in line with when we saw.

Vaccines in the in the pharmacy stores in The Physician Offices how we saw from fiser and Mna that that was just not the case but but from what today's deal is telling us that you know under this new management regime uh which has seen uh I I think what's transformative here is the relationship that they've built with their Partners in in including in the.

FDA who are allowing them to have a path you know which is very streamlined when it comes to having a variant-based vaccine but I think I'm sure you are interested in also understanding the covid influenza combination vaccine that uh the the regulatory path for their late stage vaccine uh there has also been an alignment with the FDA uh on uh.

That becoming available uh for the public in 2026 only a year after we we could see shots from Monna and fizer which which is projected to be next year and and we'll learn in short order some data on those on that combination product uh in in the coming months and Mayan our our Healthcare reporter unie kamani had the chance to talk to Novac.

CE John Jacobs and this is what he told her he says what this does is in and of itself it doesn't save novax but what it does is now put us toward a future of growth back on our biotech strength back on a platform-based growth strategy that allows us to drive growth now as you just mentioned there are potentially other products or at least other.

Combinations coming down the pike here but you know what does the future growth trajectory look like for Nova backs yeah I mean if you if you take a step back on on the size of the market of the opportunity we are talking about and if you just look at flu and and take out the pandemic from the picture you know we were vaccinating roughly uh north of.

You know 50 to 60 million uh adults every year and a large majority of them were elderly right the vaccination rates tend to be higher on that so if you think about that market is at least what you would look to protect and um there is obviously a data you know as as you might as you guys are aware that noax was working on a a flu vaccine before.

Covid even came along and they had positive phase three results so what today's uh update and development does is actually bring that back almost from the es to be able to develop as a standalone vaccine a flu vaccine and then the combination influenza vaccine would be in addition to that Standalone flu vaccine so again it's it's a little.

Unclear how the market would segment out which uh parts of the population would only prefer flu and not uh you know take a covid combination but I think we'll see the guidelines and the medical professional bodies you know the recommendations around having protect for both and and if safety and efficacy and importantly immunogenicity which.

We've seen already on a standalone basis from the covid vaccine for noax and also from the flu vaccine uh there's a very high likelihood of success for them to hit on this phase three trial they're looking to execute and then in terms of the market opportunity uh and especially in a premium segment Market or elderly Market where it's a little unclear how.

The MRNA companies would uh pan out in terms of their profile you know you're looking at them tapping into a you know multi-billion dollar uh Market opportunity that um they could you know share have a you know anywhere between 20 to 30% market share so that that I think is the work that needs to happen for people to get comfortable in the.

Story again and my on Final question here you know this company has been under activist pressure shot Capital I'm just curious um how if at all you think the news today kind of impacts that Dynamic yeah we we we try not to comment on activist uh situations but I think just at the highest level it it it was I.

Think directionally uh pointing to the things that the management was already working on and today's deal actually confirms that right like one of the uh uh recommendations or uh you know ask for the for the management was to engage in a process or engage with a uh credible partner that we have in sopi that they act you know they've been.

Working on for several months deals like these don't come together as you know over night so uh I think that uh maybe that urgency to act or deliberation uh was uh you know catalyzed by having an activist uh uh interfere but uh clearly management uh had been uh you know work looking at some of these strategic options for a.

Little while and and as you know over the past year they've uh cut cost uh you know right size the organization and they continue to do that into the into next year so um getting that balance sheet uh situ uh you know uh issue that they had to uh get over was already in the works and and um and and execution related issues that were I think also.

Pointed out uh from a regulatory standpoint from a commercial standpoint those were already things they they were uh you know on track on track with and hence you know you saw partner like SFI buy into uh their their strategic operational plan and and how I I think everyone it's a win-win for everyone including the activist investor who was.

Uh vocal about about the company in the past few days mayang thank you so much for joining the show today helping us navigate and make sense of this news we appreciate it no problem thank you the Biden Administration reportedly set to announce higher tariffs on clean energy goods from China electric.

Vehicles expected to see a hefty Levy Yahoo finances pra submaranian joins us now with those details PR yeah hey Josh you know not a surprising turn here we knew these were coming but um I guess we're surprised also to hear what reports about how big these tariffs might be in particular for EVS The Wall Street Journal reporting that early next.

Week when Biden supposedly will give these new new guidelines uh they're going to quadruple the the the uh the uh sorry the Tariff for Ev but to 100% tariff on EES currently there's around a 25 27% is tariff on just all Chinese cars in general but they want to make it 100% for the EVs and potentially would that that would make those cars you know.

Not competitive here in this market you know it remains to be seen sort of what Biden will do because there's also a threat in Mexico where uh Chinese automakers are making cars in Mexico what happens if you if if they import those cars will they will they be considered um you know free trade cards from Mexico or they be considered.

Chinese we'll see we'll find out I guess more information um next week potentially uh we did see some shares of the uh Chinese e makers a little bit lower earlier today on that news but you know for the most part they make most of their money from their domestic market and also some parts of Europe so not really going to hit their their sort of.

Bottom line just quite yet but it is a sort of a big headline number there in of course an election year right and more question what happens down the line um for their growth prospects um want to shift gears here though while we have you because Elon Musk is changing his tune on a supercharger Network halt I you know I don't know who's going.

To do the work at Tesla anymore considering how many people they laid off in superchargers but tell us what we know yeah I'm sort of like a backtrack here for for for Elon Musk kind of uh trying to fix situation or or chaos that he created in the first place by basically nearly uh laying off everyone in that supercharger team you know this.

Is a product that many people thought sort of separated Tesla from the rest of the pack also we know many Legacy automakers signed up with Tesla to be a part of that Network for their EVS so a big deal here but basically must saying today earlier this earlier today saying just to reiterate point in in a tweet Tesla will spend over 500 million.

Expanding our supercharger Network to create thousands of new Chargers this year that's just on new sites and exp expansions notp counting operations costs which are much higher so he's sort of saying nothing to see here we're going to keep on investing don't don't think of don't look at those reports that saying that I laid off everyone.

Including the woman uh Rebecca tanucci who actually uh negotiated the deals with Honda and GM and Ford and others to kind of join the network so sort of a backtrack here I think there's a lot of Partners not just automakers but also their suppliers who make the superchargers who develop sites and real estate uh projects who are concerned.

That they were trying to email people at Tesla their emails are getting bounced back they have no idea who to talk to who to get paid things like that so it's a big problem that he's trying to address right now PR thank you so much for the update appreciate it thank you coming up it's l edition of our series goodbye or goodbye stay tuned more.

Market domination after this.

it's a big noisy Universe of stocks out there welcome to goodbye or goodbye our goal to help cut through that noise to navigate the best moves for your.

Portfolio today we're dissecting the Battle of financial services between fintech versus traditional banking joining me here to discuss is great Hill Capital chairman and managing member Thomas hey it's Tom it's good to see you great to be here Julie yeah what they call trafi versus fintech I guess if you're in certain segments but let's get.

To the fintech first because that is the stock that you like although it's sort of an older one in the universe of fintech and that is Paypal the stock has had a bit of a Rocky Run but let's get to why you like it first of all there's a new CEO and there's been a lot of optimism sort of baked in there um with the company coming out with its latest.

Results yeah Andrew Chris came from into it so he ran the small business division at into it which was 50% of the revenues while he ran that division the stock was a 40 bagger over just over a decade so he's bringing some of that experience to PayPal to revitalize the brand he put out the six initiatives which he said was going to shock the world it fell a.

Little flat Yes except for the fact that he's delivering on it we saw them he set expectations low he set guidance low and he beat already in the first quarter and the big problem that everyone was worried about with PayPal was margin contraction we saw an expansion of margins in that first quarter by 98 basis points that was a good deal yes.

All right so let's talk about the what we've seen happen in the stock here re reating perhaps this is this is a big deal because the stock trades down to 15 times earnings relative to the general S&P at 21 times uh uh so why uh it's historic multiple is about 30 times as margins contracted and growth slowed that multiple contracted now what you're.

Seeing is a reacceleration since Andrew Chris came on board margin expansion you saw total payment volume up 14% last quarter revenues up 9% earnings up 18% total transactions up 11% so as we get more consistency a few quarters under his belt where the market can believe that margins have stopped going down and revenues continue to grow earnings.

Continue to grow cash flow continues to grow we could see a multiple expansion on top of the business expansion so maybe back up to 18 times 20 times 22 times I don't know if we're going back to Historic multiv because the that the housian days of the uh 30% growth may be behind us but uh a normalized multiple would really do a lot to to raise the.

Stock price from here and then there's one more financial metric you're looking at and that is free cash flow yes this is my favorite metric this is the one that can't be manipulated they generate about5 billion dollar a year of free cash flow it's amazing that i'm talking about a turnaround situation that generates $5 billion of free cash flow.

Has got $9 billion of cash on their balance sheet so all the runway in the world and further to getting the stock price up they're actually using that free cash flow to buy in stock stock they're buying about $5 billion a year at a$ 67 billion cap they could buy in the entire company in 12 or 13 years uh so we we like that situation we like.

That it's cash generative and that gives them all the runway they need in addition to the $9 billion on their balance sheet of cash interesting all right we always like to talk about what could go wrong in a scenario like this and that's may you know there's a lot of competition in this space yeah there's no question obviously Apple pay is a big.

Threat everyone's worried about that uh The Regulators are cra in down a little bit on Apple not being able to control everything the other thing is the historic Legacy fear of brain tree they actually have 10% of global Enterprise spend they process about uh $500 billion uh of5 trillion so when you think about that is Paypal through brain tree so.

When you think about people's like oh I don't use PayPal anymore oh have you used Uber today have you used Ticket Master have you us back what saying you bet and that's where they're starting to get a bottoming a troughing of margins and they're starting to accelerate because they're bringing data they're bringing AI they're bringing faster.

Checkout higher conversion at checkout so now they can start to charge a little bit more interesting okay and you own PayPal we own PayPal it's a big position personally and for clients okay let's get to the stock you don't like this is very much traditional Finance Company talking about Goldman Sachs the stocks actually rally back pretty nicely yes.

Over the past year so let's get to why you don't like it you think it's still too dependent on trading profits but isn't that like part of the reason you buy golden sack yeah well let let let me let me clarify we like Goldman Sachs we don't like Goldman Sachs at today's prices okay so we wouldn't put new new money to work at gold in Goldman Sachs.

It's doubled since the October lows it's run ahead of a lot of its uh opportunity you know a third to a half of their business though On Any Given quarter is trading profit so to eat what they kill if if you have low volatility or you have a missing trading profits it it's too lumpy in terms of the long term and they're getting a premium right now.

They're trading above their average multiple they're trading about 1.4 times tangible book Peak cycle maybe they can go up to two times tangible book but you know one time it's a bargain they're kind of in that uh middle of the range space so am I excited to put new money to work after they've just doubled in in a few few months uh the answer is no on.

A pullback would we get interested potentially but to be a very nice pullback okay and we can also say and and this is your point number two the thing that they tried to do to become less dependent on trading profits didn't work out so well complete train wreck so uh you know the message is blurry uh they tried to do Marcus for many years.

They tried to do Apple card credit card they tried to get into the credit card business that's not their bread and butter uh what they need well perhaps to D to David Solomon CEO David Solomon's credit he said he sort of cut their losses in that he said it wasn't it didn't work we're done yeah leaders always come to the correct conclusions.

After draw after trying everything else but uh leaving that aside uh I think the message is getting clearer and they do want to spend more time building out the reoccurring Revenue businesses like the Asset Management which is a relatively small portion of their overall business uh to 0.1 uh every quarter they got to start from square one all right and.

Let's get to the third thing here that we need a rate cut for the yeah this is a key they've got a Peerless Investment Banking franchise m&a debt refinancing IPOs it's just been a little bit anemic with such an aggressive uh rate hiking cycle over the last year and a half 2021 was an amazing 2223 anemic it's starting to come back.

And fits and starts but we're really going to need to see a cut or two cuts for animal spirits to really kick in the m&a game to get on boards to say I got to buy that company before someone else does it's time to refinance all of our debt it's time to do Equity offerings and then for companies that want to go public Now's the Time Animal Spirits are.

Back we're not quite there yet I think a cut towards the back half of the Year and that may take a quarter quarter and a half and that's why we're probably a pass on Goldman for new money at these levels but on a pullback we would consider it have to be meaningful pullback though gotcha okay so pullback we talk about you know what could be the.

Upside case here the other one would be as you mentioned if there are rate Cuts yeah and they could come sooner than we expect we saw the jobless uh claims yesterday were higher than expected uh and uh chairman Powell was very explicit about that yes we're watching the inflation numbers he's kind of in the camp that we all are waiting for those.

Owner equivalent rents to come down they've just been stubborn we all look at Zillow rents and everything else uh but he did make an explicit note about the labor market because that's the second part of the mandate and we're seeing some signs that maybe that's softening a little bit which could give them cover to at least do one cut you.

Know the earlier they go the less they're going to have to do if they were to go over the summer which is lower probability maybe they only have to do one or two if they wait longer till maybe after the election it might require more Cuts I love it Tom you snuck in some macro stuff for us which we love thanks so much all right so.

Let's sum up what you're telling uh investors here basically you say buy PayPal on performance under new leadership the play on value add margin re acceleration and healthy generation of free cash flow on the other side you say for now avoid Goldman Sachs is a little pricey and says dependent on trading profits it's playing catch up on.

Asset management and it is waiting for those rate cuts to ignite Capital markets thanks time have a great weekend and thank you so much for watching goodbye or goodbye be sure to tune back in next week for all new episodes at 3:30 p.m. Eastern it's been another AI Centric earning season as investors track the.

Next best move in the AI trade but what if instead of just investing in AI Traders could also use AI to power other public and private investment strategies we're here to discuss is kaiju worldwide CEO and Global chair Ryan panel Ryan good to have you here thanks thanks for having me back and it's nice to be here in person this time so so Ryan let me.

Ask you maybe just to start your focus is predictive AI correct right as as opposed to gen AI which we spend a lot of time talking about this show right and all kinds of companies spending a lot of time money and effort there maybe start their Ryan to viewers kind of the differences between the two and then how Kaiju is is really integrating that Tech.

Right so I think as you say the the AI that most people are familiar with is generative AI where you're taking a a non-defined non-standard data set in most cases the internet uh where your ownership of the data to train the models isn't necessarily well defined you've got free use versus copyright infringement and you're trying to answer.

Like any question that somebody could answer and or ask and then create something new out of it paint me a picture write me an essay make a you Sora make me a movie and you get problems with hallucination that come with that I mean no question it's very powerful technology with a bright future predictive AI is using either easily.

Purchased or collected at source data for us price time and quantity for example and it's trying to answer a specific question so in our case it's trying to identify patterns in price time and quantity that immediately pred a price action that we want to take advantage of and we see this over and over again and there's a reasonable.

Amount of certainty and we can use it to to that end and so basically it's all it's not fundamental analysis at all it is just based on so it's effectively predictive AI based on technical analysis to some extent you want to share the the secret sauce Ryan I I knew that was coming um if you think about it every positive investment decision.

Results in a transaction right it doesn't matter what the asset class is you know real estate derivatives equities options you know you do your analysis whether it's fundamental technical there's an investment committee and at the end of the day if it's go ahead you're going to affect the transaction and we can see the pattern.

In the transaction not always but for specific transactions you can with some degree of certainty reverse engineer the investment decision that resulted in the transaction example would be you know if you're watching rotation versus distribution they're very different intentions and so they're very different patterns Panic looks different you know.

Buying quietly because there's you you have some certainty there's going to be a positive earnings and you don't want to disturb price versus buying indiscriminately because you think in five years the stock is going to be more positive different patterns different outcomes if you can identify them then you can predate on them I I'm interested.

So you know it's right you so you found some tasks where you think okay addictive AI in my world investing makes sense are there ones where you think you know what this Tech this Tech is not up to that task ones you wouldn't want to see it apply to yeah sure absolutely obviously anything with a long-term time frame I don't care if it's human or.

Machine there's no person there's no system there's no predictive AI That's going to tell you with any certainty where a stock is going to be in six months from now and anyone who says different is just trying to sell you something so it's not well suited to that Global macro you know Putin invades Ukraine what will be the global economic.

Response to that over the next 12 months there's no system that's going to do that immediate short-term predation on price action inequities derivatives yes it's very good at that but the longer term stuff no and I don't see that changing so you made a comment near at the beginning when you drew the contrast with generative Ai and it sounds like.

You're a little bit skeptical of that models the the way that it collects information or its ownership or lack thereof of the data correct so I'm curious your view on whether you think there should be rules around those kinds of things when it comes to gend of AI well I mean that's a it's a big question to ask and answer in terms of the.

Capacity to potentially answer any question that you might ask no it it needs to have this latitude these the large language models are enormous and obviously incredibly costly to run because you can't determine what someone's going to need require or want to review it can be information collection it can be creation so you're.

Going to have to allow it a lot of latitude with predictive AI whether it's flying a plane or driving a boat or trading stock you needed to do one specific task with a high degree of certainty and so the hard landscape surrounding those data is important and thankfully that aligns with that type of Technology but for the larger systems I.

Don't see how you constru train the data and achieve the same same performance Ryan thanks for coming in it's good see my pleasure thank you appreciate it coming up we're bringing out down what to expect from Big Box retail earnings that's coming next week and the best ways to invest in that sector that's in today's Playbook stay tuned more Market.

Domination on the other side a.

welcome back we're looking at how to navigate the retail sector with today's Yahoo finance investor Playbook another big week of earnings season has just wrapped up but there are still a handful of big box retailers on deck and joining.

Us now to discuss which companies are best position as we approach earning earnings releases in the next two weeks is Chris graa Argus research senior analyst and Chad morganlander senior portfolio manager at Washington Crossing advisors uh welcome guys both to the show Chad maybe I'll start with you um maybe the big picture Chad your take on.

On the consumer and and where they are right now it was just sort of interesting to walk through this earning season and try to read the tea leaves um just where you thought they were uh some some Executives I actually was impressed when I heard something like like uber and Lyft and how generally optimistic they sound the consumer but what was.

Your take so broad-based I think that the consumer is quite strong uh they're well they're there got a lot of Tailwind regarding savings uh wage inflation uh has been going higher that votes well for consumption uh as well it's a full employment picture here in the United States uh so for us we think that bodes well overall in aggregate for Big Box.

Retailers of course there are certain retailers that will do much better and then there are others that are going to lapse doing part because of the big postco surge the normalization cycle is around the corner well maybe on that front Chris I want to bring you in you know I think that the Walmarts the world more squarely fit into our idea of what.

Value the value proposition is right now maybe we struggle a little bit more with the Home Improvement retailers which I know you cover as well talking about Home Depot and lows I think you have a buy rating on both how how do they fit in into this current consumer environment yeah and I think the multi-year strategy is that there is a.

Huge portion of the population who has locked in very low mortgage rates uh we've seen in the housing numbers that they're not moving so maybe a lot of people you also have uh baby boomers who are aging at place and you have a large number of Millennials who you know are going to buy a house uh but it's probably not going to be the house they.

Dreamed of and I think all of that spells Home Improvement the Baby Boomers are going to upgrade homes so that they they can stay longer whether it's showers or baths um or railings or other things uh a lot of people who are saying you know we've got a low mortgage we're going to stay in our house they're probably going to do kitchens and.

Bathrooms and all kinds of things to make their existing home more livable so you know there may be a couple near-term challenges but but longer term I think I think it makes a lot of sense well that's what I wanted to follow up on Chris you know what you're describing that sort of longer term Trend are we going to see that in the upcoming.

Earnings or is that more just something investors should kind of ride out and wait for I mean they're good quality businesses they they pay dividends um and the thing is I don't think we know exactly when the turns going to be and then the other thing is like all we need to see is a little bit of sign of an inflection so I think the long-term.

Thesis makes a lot of sense looking at the you know Harvard's leading indicator of remodeling activity it's probably later in the year before we before we see a turn there but I mean I think it's a thesis that makes a lot of sense and U I think the businesses are you know are going to weather that and if the change whether it's from the fed or somewhere.

Else happens a little bit earlier you know you're there with good quality businesses rather than chasing Chad I want to bring you in here as well get your your take on Home Depot it sounds Chad like about that name you're saying listen um some short-term headwinds but longer term smart place to be right and I completely agree with.

Chris uh when it comes to Home Depot uh we own it in our Rising dividend portfolio we've owned it for over five years it it has very little debt uh it is consistently growing and uh when it comes to profitability it's it's has a high of return on invested Capital uh and like Chris I Echo that you want to own this as a core position over the.

Next three to five years when that turn comes in the housing market uh this stock will Gap higher so we would be buyer within that uh with within with with Home Depot um let's Chad let's get to then the others the the Walmarts and targets that are coming up as well um do you uh I'll take you first on this Chad do you like one over.

The other do you think those are both going to provide um a a good opportunity for investors especially with the Catalyst of the upcoming earnings as well yeah we we like and we favor Walmart uh we have it in both out Rising dividend and all cap portfolio we've owned it for over over seven years uh we believe that their their diversification.

In regard to Omni channel uh has been quite successful they're now able to compete I believe headon with Amazon uh so we favor that one over Target if there is a softening within the consumpt consumer or consumption we think that Walmart will be able to take market share from Target Chris I want to get you back in here get your thoughts on.

Those two names as well how are you thinking about Walmart Walmart and Target yeah I like Walmart I think they've built a tremendous amount of Goodwill um over the last several months and lowering the prices of things like french bread and rotisserie chicken at times where people are concerned about prices you know they look to Walmart as.

A place that can help uh the other thing we've seen is that you know households that make over $100,000 a year are going to Walmart so when this change or when this little bit of turn with the consumer happens Walmart's going to try to retain those customers uh they're investing in their their discretionary stuff their home products and that.

Should be good for them um you know the question I think clients others ask is you know we see the case for for Walmart right now but what's the next step whether it's three or six months down the road and I think it's a little bit similar to what we were saying with with Home Depot uh target has uh more of a discretionary business.

And you know I think when we see that turn I mean in the meantime they still have um you know Staples and they still have decent traffic and they're still you know appealing to people who want convenience but I think once their um their home and apparel comes back in a stronger way we should see that go right to.

Margins Chris Chad thank you guys both for joining the show today have a great weekend thank you thanks well wrapping up today's market domination don't go anywhere we've got you covered with all the action following the closing bell stay tuned for Market domination overtime.

m.

now there we have the closing bell on Wall Street now it's Market domination.

Overtime jar BL going to join us in a few minutes to talk about today's action but let me get you up to speed on what happened today sponsored by tasty trade the Dow making it eight sessions in a row higher here we got the 7-Day chart right here showing that uh 4% gain that we've seen over that period of time but it has been quite Run for the Dow here.

The S&P 500 treading water here today ending the session a little bit higher than NASDAQ though still in the red but just very marginally on the day we had uh consumer confidence numbers this morning sentiment coming in at a 6mon low even as expectations for inflation ticked up and we had a lot of fed speak a lot of fed officials today sort of.

Indicating that they are content to hold on rates for now so it's been an interesting period of time time let's take a look a little bit more granularly at what happened in the session energy stocks and consumer discretionary the biggest drags in the S&P 500 Staples and financials Rising the most and with that strength in the Dow let's see what.

Helped a gain the most today going to equal weight it so we can see here McDonald's Rising after reports that it was going to unveil a $5 value menu so those shares up better than 2 and a half% 3M shares Verizon and MX rounding out some of the other top movers there but I want to go back over and take a look at our trending tickers because.

There's one stock I want to point out in particular that's company called Zer which is a high-end Chinese auto manufacturer here it is here having its initial public offering today it's owned by Xiang Gil holding um but it is the higher end operation within that this the biggest Chinese um debut in the US since 2021 these are the American.

Depositary shares of the Chinese company and the shares um selling 21 million shares all together opening at 26 today and then rising Rising as much as 40% at one point but finishing the day up about 34% Josh Julia the Dow finished off a strong week with its eighth straight day of gains and here with some of today's trading takeaways is Jared blicker Jared.

Yes thank you I thought we'd focus on the people's index here let's go to the Wi-Fi interactive where I'm going to show a year- to-day chart and I'll put some candlesticks on so you can see the eight days here and that is also the number of trading days that we've had in May so every single day has been green for the Dow this is a record high right.

There and we are now less than 1% away uh probably a cinch that we'll get there but the question is can we get meaningfully beyond that uh when we were at these lows a couple weeks ago I said there's going to be more seasonal weakness potentially into June but we're due for a bounce we got the bounce so what's the next catalyst I got to think.

It's going to be CPI CPI probably makes or makes or breaks next week and probably uh the fate of this rally whether it continues on or whether it reverses probably in its hands too um and I know you're also taking a look at um viix yes the the vix of the vix the vix of the vix I do like to monitor a few different things here so we talk.

About the vix which is a fear index but we also have the vix of the vix and the point of volatility and I'll show you both here on the Wi-Fi interactive first here is the vix here year-to date and you can see we're at basically the lows of the year and now here's the vix of the vix uh we are at multi-year lows I'll put a five-year chart on here this.

Is just to say that complacency is very high right now um it doesn't mean that we're going to necessarily see a spike which would mean that stocks are are selling off rather aggressively but nevertheless we have to be mindful you want to buy protection when it's cheap which is right now when we're at all-time highs that's the time to be.

Thinking about protection um the other point I wanted to make was about Futures and uh if we can go to the Wi-Fi oh we're already on the Wi-Fi interactive here uh this is what's happened today in Futures I want to check out this week uh copper has just been on fire so has gold so has silver and I'm actually going to skip right to the miners here this is a.

5-day price action in here we have individual miners we also have some of the underlying ETFs so Seer copper is an ETF that uh invests in Copper so it's kind of like USA or us o which is oil uh for oil we also have GLD but the uh the miners of these things are facing a multiple so they're higher beta here's cobex 2.8% that's an ETF of miners.

That's basically almost double of what the underlying copper is doing GDX I'm going to put this chart up that's up 5% this week check out the year to dat gold uh has been on a nice run here and you can see over the last 3 months GDX up 30% uh so these are if you look at a long-term chart of some of these miners very very much a mean reverting asset.

And that's kind of because Commodities are themselves um it's not something you buy and hold for 10 years but you can use it to trade in and out of positions and with the FED on hold here with the AI play goose and copper I got to think that these guys have more room to run interesting and copper is also really interesting because often if you saw.

That chart a lot of times Jared you would think okay well that's telling me good news about economic growth or China yeah yeah but Point you'll hear Economist saying that actually something else is going on they'll call it kind of like a perfect storm of sort of tight market and these kind of uncommon unusual Supply constraints yeah I think.

The D the AI story is finally broadening enough that we see it uh utilities is another great example utilities was the best performing sector this week why is that because it takes electricity to run these data centers it takes copper wiring you know for the wires to or for the memory chips for the microprocessors so you put all this together we're.

Seeing basic materials if we can go back to the Wi-Fi interactive I'm going to show you a year-to DAT uh chart of all the sector action here here's materials up 7.4% here's utilities up 12.5% uh both of those are higher than Tech which is up 6.8% so I think that says something itself well and What Remain what continues to blow my mind is that.

That's in the face of higher for longer rate perceptions which usually hurts utilities So speaking of rates I want to mention something else that I know been watching which is the inflows we've been seeing into the bond market yes um so we've seen the greatest inflows over the last week into the bond market uh since 2021 I think a lot of this has to do uh.

Michael hartnet with from Bank of America BFA was writing about this in his weekly missive about flows uh that's where I got this stat from uh the bond market has not been loved over the last few months since it became a question of whether or not the the no Landing scenario might be front and center that is what if the Fed has to raise rates.

Again well I think this last week the PO press conference um that we had last week or was it this week I had to think there it was last week I think since that PO press conference the thinking is no Landing is finally on the Shelf we don't have to worry about the FED raising rates anymore and that's why we've seen this huge influx into bonds.

Once again it's just safe it's safe to be safe if you think about it well volatility of volatility it's safe to be safe yes the interactive of the interactive active we the derivative of the derivative thank you jar appreciate it stock closing the day mix says investors get set for a big week of econ data.

Ahead that could help push the FED in their final mile back to 2% inflation joining us now in studio discuss all this in the path ahead is Bill Zach Brandy Wine Global portfolio manager Bill good to have you on set glad to be here so maybe let's just start there bill so economic calendar next week you got uh CPI on Deck Jared was just.

Talking about it how important is that uh for the market Bill and what are you expecting I mean it is very important and uh uh I'm not so much focused on that particular print but what I'm focused on is will the FED need tighter Financial conditions to get inflation down to 2% they don't seem to be too concerned about loose Financial.

Conditions right now and it used to be sell in May and go away that's not looking so good this year so uh my my big question is uh whatever the inflation print is uh next week are they going to need tighter Financial conditions to get inflation down to 2% well and I think what Jared was just bringing up about the bond market was.

Quite interesting that this perception that maybe what what is seen as a confirmation that there's not going to be another raise in Rat you saw that influx into the bond market but not having another raise and having a cut there's like a lot of space in between those two things so do does what we're seeing in the bond market make sense I.

Guess I would ask well I think uh for the treasury market uh that you really on the longer end of the treasury curve you need the cuts to justify moving out of cash in other parts of the bond market which are also seeing very strong inflows like the high yield Market that I'm involved in it's much less sensitive to the rate Cuts actually materializing.

You're getting substantial yield in the high yield market for for example compared to inflation compared to cash yields and as long as you can avoid the defaults that's pretty compelling right now I'm interest so if I look at the yield on the tenure here Bill we're at uh back to 45 what's your view of where that heads near intermediate term I mean.

I think that's very dependent on Ray Cuts if if uh we need tighter Financial conditions that might mean that those yields have to go even higher to get inflation back down to 2% so the high yield front have we seen an uptick in defaults at all or is that something that is a concern as we head throughout the year I mean that the view of the.

Economy and therefore of earnings as well has been pretty sanguin but some of the more recent data really seems to be rolling over a little bit Yeah the economic data has been a little bit softer of late but earnings are really in a goldilock scenario for high yield not too hot not too cold and defaults are in the two to two and a half% range.

They've leveled out for the last six months or so and that's well below historic averages so uh the you know the the idea that that there is a lot of stress in the high yield Market is just not borne out by the data what about build's core investment grade fixed income attractive uh I think it's tough I think.

It it you really do need the rate cuts to materialize to justify that otherwise why come out of cash at 5.3% to go into core fixed income where in the mid fours and if you're in the aggregate index you're talking about a duration of six to under yield cash so I I think that that's still a tough spot to be from here within high yield where.

Do you see the most opportunity right now yeah I think uh financials in the high yield Market that's um you know not a big part of the high yield Market but it's uh very attractive facing much less competition from Banks as a result of what happened in the spring of 23 and then cable is getting very interesting it's been under severe pressure in both.

The equity market and the high yield bond market but I think there's some real opportunities being created there interesting all right thanks Phil thanks for coming into the studio good to see you coming up Life 360 is a location sharing app that allows its users not only to keep track of their loved ones but also keep track of belongings and.

Access a range of Safety Services we're going to speak to the co-founder and CEO on the other side we Market domination overtime still to come n.

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welcome back to Market domination overtime Gerald Bick is here to recap the action from today's session sponsored by tasty trade hey Jared thank you Julie it was a week of green and let's check out the Wi-Fi interactive.

I'll go through each of the indices uh you can see the Dow up 32 basis points today up 2.1 6% for the week and uh almost at the 40,000 level not quite there there just yet here's the S&P 500 uh north of 5,200 in fact 5222 on the nose up 1.85% and the NASDAQ up about 1.14% now let's check out the sector action which I thought was pretty.

Interesting utilities did it again up 4.2% and that is now the leading sector of the entire year utilities uh followed by financials uh materials industrial Staples and R uh real estate that rounds out the top row and then you have everything green on the bottom row consumer discretionary just barely positive up 0.1% and that is a Tesla.

Story if we go to the NASDAQ 100 looking at the 5-day trailing totals you can see Amazon the actual biggest component of consumer discretionary in the green but Tesla down about 7% you can see that right there uh otherwise than that let me check on the leaders we have momentum that is a momentum ETF up 2 and a half% % that's topping the boards this week.

What's the uh the lagered position is arc Arc is down 5.6% and if we take a look inside we can see in addition to Tesla down 7% Shopify down 20 Roblox down 20 coinbase down 10 so not the best week for disruption guys thank you Jared government's annual outlook for Medicare spelling good news for retirees and here with the details is Yahoo finances very.

Own senior columnist Rick Newman Rick hey guys what I thought found interesting about this uh which is the headline saying uh Medicare the what they call the so-called go broke date for Medicare last year it was 2031 and now it's 2036 it has been extended by five years and let's go back two years uh uh two years ago the Medicare trustee.

Said they thought the main trust fund in Medicare could run out of money as early as 2028 if it happened in 2028 that means the next president who were going to elect this year would be having to deal with this problem during his or her next presidential term and now that is not the case so for President Biden running.

For reelection I think this uh means two things number one he has taken some steps to reduce health care costs uh and so he can now say Hey look it's working uh the co cost basis in Medicare has gone down and we've extended the life of that program that's not really why uh the picture looks a little bit better for Medicare but he can say it and he.

Already is saying it and the second thing is the next president is not going to have to deal with this problem the next president should deal with the problem we should get medicare's finances straightened out sooner rather than later but that's not the way Washington Works uh so there's going to be a lot of talk about this but the next.

President actually is not going to have to do something on an urgent basis um Rick what are some of the main reasons why things aren't worse and are there any um levers that you know can be pulled by the next incoming president to to help keep that going yeah so it's two things mainly that um improve the outlook for Medicare uh the first is.

That the economy is just doing well and Americans don't believe it I mean we saw new confidence uh readings today that said Americans think the econom is in bad shape but it's not and uh government tax revenues went up by more than expected because the economy grew by more than expected people are earning money and paying more taxes so that's.

Number one the other one people aren't going to believe either which is that the um rate of price increases in health care have actually moderated uh relative to Economist expectations from just a couple of years ago um Biden didn't really accomplish either one of those things I mean this is the force of the economy on its own there have been some.

Government efforts going back to the Affordable Care Act in 2010 that have uh intended to um lower the growth rate of Health Care and you know for years Health Care was growing at two or three rates uh times the rate rate of inflation and that is not the case anymore uh that doesn't mean the system is in good shape or it's working for.

Everybody it's clearly not but at least one thing is going in the right direction there's an important footnote here guys which is um Social Security which is the other focus of this annual report that is going to start running short of money in 2033 so uh nine years from now and that is the same as last year's forecast so.

That's actually going to become a problem first based on the latest data Rick let me get your take on something I I saw Jason trenard uh chairman of strategus allaround smart guy he posted the following on X today Rick saying the New York Times The Wall Street Journal and now the Ft have all now written articles suggesting that people are too.

Stupid to realize that inflation is not as bad as what they see with their own eyes goes on to say as an election issue the inflation debate is over and President Biden lost now as a as a columnist Rick you think a lot about these issues very deeply what what's your response to Mr tren's argument there I I love your curveball questions.

Josh I got to say um I mean you know I've been writing a lot about this too um people think inflation is worse than the data says it is um so there's a gap between perception and reality I don't think that means any anybody is stupid um because as I've discovered in conversations with a lot of our audience members every individual has his or her.

Own personal inflation gauge and it's not the CPI uh it's not uh some of the data we talk about all the time it it could be a lot of different things for a lot of people it's rent how what's the rent is it up or down and how much of a of a bite is it taking out of their paycheck um I have talked with people who told me that.

Uh because the price of a pound of roast beef is $3 more than it was uh in 2020 uh they know that inflation is high somebody told me it's the cost of a loaf of pepp farm Ry bread I mean these are the this is just how people measure inflation in their heads and of course the big one is gasoline prices people relate to that because it's just a price.

They see all the time and everybody has in their head an idea of what the right price for these things is and the prices now are higher than the right price that people think so um I have a lot of arguments with people I don't think people are stupid and I think that the one thing we all have to keep in mind is that a lot of those prices have gone up.

And stayed up so the rate of inflation could be zero on a year-over-year basis but the rate of inflation on a three-year basis or a four-year basis in many cases is 25% or more so uh if prices were to come down I think that would help with this perception issue um but not too many prices are coming down and some prices are just going to stay.

For stay up there for uh for a good long while yeah not too many prices coming down I think in my brain it's eggs even though I know eggs are even more volatile than anything else but it's SE it's you know it's just always the same carton to maybe I I I follow the price of avocados you know when you can get an avocado for a buck 50 things are.

Good3 I get upset yeah the avocado is very seasonal avocado metric yeah we got maybe we need to go film a little thing in a grocery store together Rick thanks so much J have a good hi guys happy weekend well there's a company Making a Splash in the fitness space Hydro manufactures rowing machines at a time where Fitness Trends have shifted from.

Cardio to strength to some extent it was once targeted by pelaton for an Aquis I but now it's making a different deal to grow acquiring a majority stti in speed Fitness this week the value of that deal not disclosed for more we're here with the founder of hydro Bruce Smith thanks for being here Bruce appreciate it super happy to be here yeah so um am I saying.

Speed or do you say Speedy because it has the e at the end now we had a lawyer on the deal who insisted that it was Speedy but I think it was a little passive aggressive the company is called speed but if you put an e on the end when you Google it it is easier to find we know we know the tricks we know the tricks spruce so um you know it's funny.

That this deal is happening now there was just a story in the Wall Street Journal about how hit is sort of going out high-intensity interval training and strength is coming in so is that what you guys were looking at when you decided to to do this deal so the most important thing for Fitness is your cardiovascular system the second most.

Important thing is strength and that's not something that's going to change it's permanent and we're not you know we don't chase fads we chase the very best thing and what's really excited about speed exciting about speed is that they have this technology it's variable resistance and that is uh tonal has that too speed has the next level of that.

Variability and it's really it's delivering a better workout and less time which is the same thing that Ro does for you so for us it's been part of the plan since the beginning we're a Whole Health company and we're so delighted to bring this uh to Market with spe because they do have this really extraordinary technology and.

Bruce I'm interested you know Julie kind of mentioned pelaton there which you know has struggled and makes headlines for all the wrong reasons you know asking to comment on pelaton but I I am just curious more broadly you know Bruce are you are you all just pulling certain levers do you think that that's helping you kind of pulling exactly they're kind.

Of helping you just navigate the market maybe more effectively than the competition so you know and I love pelaton I really do and I wouldn't be here if it weren't for John Foley and all the craziness that he started um the bottom line I think is that um the North Star is the combination of three things you need something to work out on in.

Your home you need really great content you need really great software and honestly they pelaton had that Vision we've never let go of that Vision we're never going to you need a footprint in the home because that convenience is what really drives market adoption and from our perspective we've stuck to that Northstar there was a huge bump you know.

Massive amount of disruption but it didn't change the basic fundamentals of the business it's an amazing business it's always going to be a great business we want people to go to the gym we want people to work out at home most of all we want them to be healthy and this is one of the tools that that will help them feel better in their life so I hate.

To keep bringing up pellaton as the is the but but it's a it's a publicly traded company so we know their numbers we know their numbers went way up in 2020 2021 when people were home and since then they have decelerated in terms of their sales right what can you tell us about what you guys have seen you know so we had the same like massive.

Ramp in the uh in the pandemic and we didn't have to spend much on advertising and and I think everybody thought like oh this is the permanent New Wave um of course it wasn't it pandemic driven so we had a year of reset it was extremely tough on everybody in the whole industry we did a big riff you know like we restructured but year-over-year our.

Growth is just uh we're seeing you know back to what we started with which is uh this year up 23% year-over-year unit sales are much higher than that even so you know it's just grinding away at that uh really great great marketing story and it's a promise to Consumers never breaking that promise and the market is is just beginning to be tapped you know.

The penetration overall still in the mid 20s and we know that that market penetration is going to get to the 40s in the United States beyond that the world which has just begun to wake up to this possibility Bruce who I'm just interested what can you tell us about who who your customer is what's what's the demo is it you know Young Old Man.

Woman High income who is it so it's people have homes so they tend to be you know 35 and up uh relatively High household income a lot of people think that we would skew more towards female but it's actually Half Men half women and for us the most important thing thing they've never rode you know rowing is still this relatively undiscovered.

Thing boys in the boat was a great movie and how do they how do they learn Bruce is there a tutorial cuz there is a there you're uh thank you for the infomercial opportunity but we we teach you everything you need to know so I'm an National here Bruce yeah no no I appreciate it so I'm a national team coach I coach for the United States I've.

Been in the world championships 10 times we take that knowledge and we give it to you in your living room so and it really is that what what happens the most is that people buy them buy the machine and they get it home and then there're so surprised at the immersiveness and the quality of the experience and just just check out our Facebook groups it's full.

Of rabid fans um so let's get back to speed for a second because I'm curious it doesn't it's not selling the product yet to the public if I'm if I've got it right so then why do it at that stage why make the acquisition at that stage and then when is the roll out going to happen and how will it integrate with ro with Hydro so they have some amazing IP.

Around a resistance mechanism that generates more Force so there are two products that we are going to bring to Market over the next uh several months uh the first one is for consumers in their home and that has resistance in the 3 400 PB range which is more than enough for civilians and then their Flagship product which I.

Tried and literally on the second repetition I was like we have to work with this company it's uh it generates more than 2,000 pounds of resistance and it's like using a professional weight rack and it's it's really amazing it's for the commercial market and so it's that high extraordinary experience in the gym and then Super accessible Blends.

Right in seamlessly with the hydro experience together and it's putting those two experiences together CU as I as I said at the beginning what you really need is you know your heart and lungs to be healthy and you also need muscle mass and um I think the whole world understands those two things these are the two most efficient ways to.

Accomplish that Bruce that was super interesting thank you for coming in today my pleasure that was cool thank you here's a look at what to watch for next week the consumer will be in Focus between earnings and economic data on the corporate front earning season for big retailers gets underway some of the key names to watch include Home Depot.

Walmart and raw stores Walmart the world's largest retailer is set to report Thursday ahead of the opening bell investors will be looking for insight into consumer spending patterns and the company's spending plans after announcing remember plans to acquire Vio in an effort to build up its ad business and as for economic data it's pretty.

Busy week the data point investors and economists will be watching most closely the Consumer Price Index that's out ahead of the open on Wednesday it is the first look at inflation since the FED decision last week the expectation is for core CPI to rise 3/10 of a perc in April from the prior month and on a year-over year basis prices excluding.

Food and energy expect to rise 3.6% other data includes retail sales and the producer price index housing will be another Focus as we get readings on home builder confidence and housing starts and building permits that will do it for today's market domination overtime be sure to come back Monday at 3 p.m. Eastern for all of your coverage.

Leading up to and after the closing Bell stay tuned we've got more Yahoo Finance on the other side.

m now.

there is more to location sharing than just seeing what your kids are up to during the day enter Life 360 the company operates a platform geared toward family is allowing its users to not only keep track of their loved ones but also keep track of belongings and access a range of Safety Services.

Joining us now to discuss the opportunities and beyond for the company life 60s 360s co-founder and CEO Chris Halls Chris thank you for being here appreciate it so talk to me about how you guys um are integrated into devices and and what demand looks like right now sure so we were the first location sharing app on.

The market and we had the Insight that location can be the springboard for so many different Family Services it's not just about safety but that sense of connection where is someone how are they driving how are they feeling and when there is that emergency what if you need an ambulance what if you need help because your kid drank the Tylenol we.

Have a whole host of services that fit within our umbrella and more recently we've moved into devices so pets things cars Keys uh stuff that you really care about our belief is that location is going to be in everything and it's and it's very much the early days as the millennial generation becomes parents they naturally turn to their devices and.

That's been driving this huge growth we've had and Chris I'm assuming you know if I'm tracking people I'm assuming that other person that they have to opt in yep it is 100% opt in there's no parent and kid version of the app it's all the same completely peer-to-peer and that was one of the key elements of our platform in the early days was trust you.

Have to be opted in that is not stealth um and Life 360 I I would imagine competes on some levels although you have a different Suite of services with things like find my iPhone so I'm curious how M how much of it is deployed on Android devices and do you also have some market share on iOS devices so counterintuitively we actually have.

Higher market share in Android heavy and excuse me iOS heavy regions and a lot of it's because Apple helped popularize location sharing because hey they're Apple they normalized something that felt a little bit creepy early on but as we grew people realize well if I really want that richer interface if I have a family if I have crossplatform customers.

If I want to know someone's driving if I want to have an interface a little bit more lively and less utilitarian you get a life 360 so we very regularly hear of people who started on fine M and moved to light 360 but it's about half of our paying customers are crossplatform and Chris I'm curious um whether you know if you have kids yourself and if so are you.

Using the app to stay connected with them I have two daughters six and nine so I'm not using the app for them uh but I do use tile devices with them and one thing that's a bit counterintuitive is it's not just parents with kids we have couples we have people taking care of their aging parents so you really look at what we're doing it's about the.

Family organizer it's about staying in touch with the people closest to you and it's not just people with teenage kids um and as you know there's a story in the Wall Street Journal that talked about um potentially more information on a new source of revenue for you guys you have you know people pay for some of these services that you're talking about.

But it sounds like you also are going to have an ad supported version and that you're going to give some more information about the ad Rue what what can you tell us about that piece absolutely so by da we're the 15th biggest app in the country now on iOS according to data. so we have this huge treasure Tove of realtime first-party.

Data and I think sometimes you look at data and it just looks like a way to harvest things from your customers but we actually think we can give offers that are very compelling so imagine you land at a new airport and we can immediately get you an Uber or you go to a new country and we could offer you trip insurance those are things that.

Take advantage of your data in very beneficial ways where we can match our customers with products and services that actually help them and that's a very unique type of advertising and we're excited to to lead into it and Chris you guys are um you trade in Australia you have an OTC listing here but I'm I understand you're pursuing.

Potentially a dual listing in the US what's the potential timeline on that I I can't comment on that but we did file an S3 perspectus which anyone can take a look at okay well we'll do that and hopefully other of you will do will too Chris thank you so much appreciate it thank you for having me coming up next our latest edition of small business.

Week we'll discuss advice for entrepreneurs and business owners in a panel discussion next the dream for many Americans across the country is to ditch the corporate power structure and turn their passion into a business but it's not as easy as most people think 20% of all new.

Businesses fail in the first two years of opening that's according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics so how do you start a business well after you do the fun part of deciding what your business does picking a name differentiating it from competitors and getting the proof of concept it's time to tackle the red tape these are five key steps you'll.

Need to take to safeguard your small business against potential legal and financial issues first make sure your business name is original and unique it shouldn't be the same as an established company infringe on trademark or service marks that have already been registered within your state second you'll have to register.

Your business entity with your state by creating a corporation or LLC another way is to go through a sole proprietorship once you file for your preferred type of legal entity your state will send you a certificate that you can use to apply for licenses a tax identification number and business bank accounts third apply for an employer.

Identification number every business except sole proprietorships with no employees must have a federal employer identification number commonly known as a EIN in order to file taxes with the IRS four you'll need all the appropriate licenses and permits required for your type of business if you're working in agriculture selling alcohol working.

Radio television broadcasting or in other fields you'll need certain licenses and permits in order to legally operate and five you need insurance even if you work from home it could mean liability insurance property insurance business Interruption insurance or even Workers Compensation Insurance which Most states require by law if you have.

Employees now once all your paperwork is signed sealed and delivered the real world work and reward begins n.

n now.

the number of small businesses planning to expand and obtain funding has decreased since last spring that's according to Bank of America and this comes as concerns over the uncertain economic landscape linger for business.

Owners as part of yah who finances small business big opportunities we're are tapping into ways to enable small business's growth Karen carrian Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council CEO and president along with hello Alice co-founder and president Elizabeth Gore are joining us now to discuss so ladies first of all thank you so much for being.

Here appreciate it um Karen I want to start with you can you talk to us a little bit more about that backdrop before we dig into how to help small business I'm just curious to kind of take the temperature on how business owners that you're speaking to are feeling right now amidst the economic environment well they're they're.

Definitely n navigating uh challenges that have been in existence you know for some time and and yeah the inflation continues to be their number one concern um uh and inflationary pressures that's definitely squeezing uh squeezing their bottom line and um and and then also putting a dent into into their competence as well there.

Has been a pullback you know on consumer activity so all that um you know really is is quite challenging um you know on the other hand you know when we talk to business owners you know they they see the challenge and they're pivoting and they're turning to technology and using Ai and a bunch of other tools to help them navigate through this so where.

There are challenges they they're they're also you know they they're seeing Solutions and and really grinding their way through it Elizabeth I want to bring you here as well and maybe start there as well Elizabeth big picture you know you're talking to small business owners across this country how how are they doing how are they feeling right.

Now Elizabeth oh how do y'all we are I gotta tell you we serve 1.5 million small businesses on hello Alice and they are being very reserved and conservative right now as they should be capital is expensive we've got a little bit of a Slowdown but I also think they're incredibly resilient they are being smart about their cash flow we are not.

Ever going back to pre-o times when small business owners over index on credit and loans they're going to be smart until consumer spending picks back up again and listen we have five times the amount of small businesses launching in the US right now that we ever have so while there's a conservative approach to cash flow right now I think there's a.

Sense of optimism on these small business owners following their dreams well that's helpful to know especially on the credit front Elizabeth I want to stick with you here what is the number one question that you get or that people come to you that they want help with when they're either starting or you know having a fledgling business.

I think you know the number one thing we hear all the time is Equitable access to Capital and I I use the word ex Equitable because anyone can get Capital but how expensive is it right now and I think small business owners are getting more Savvy about understanding how expensive is the capital that they are accessing so should I go for operational.

Credit should I get an SBA loan should I really think about getting that line of credit for the first time they're just being much smarter about it but the number one thing that small business owners need to do is ensure their financial Fitness is correct are your books in order do you have a strong business plan before you ever go out and.

Seek Capital Karen uh you know when you're talking to small business owners what what is top of Mind there are you hearing what Elizabeth is hearing in terms of access to Capital or what what are the big trends and themes you know is it jobs supply chain inflation what are you hearing well it's sort of a combination.

Of of of all of that right I mean you know as I mentioned sort of the cost the inflationary pressures I mean that's the big issue that we continue to hear as well as um a tightening you know of capital and an access to Capital and the cost of capital you know is getting higher you know there are others there's some other issues that we see emerging.

As well you know their concerns about crime you know depending on sort of where they are you know where their business happens to be located that has that has ticked higher as well as their concerns about you know foreign policy and what's happening on the International front sort of the geopolitical um you know tensions and.

And concerns that are out there and how you know something could happen overnight you know and afflect Supply chains cost um and Etc I would say the other big issue is what's happening in Washington from a from a tax and a regulatory perspective they do see a lot of things in the Regulatory Agencies the Department of Labor the FTC um and other.

Agencies and how those regulations are going to impact the cost of capital their availab availability or opportunity to use independent contractors and then there's there's taxing issues lingering too as well there's a lot of expired uh tax credits uh there's ones that will be expiring uh in the near future with regard to uh the.

20% business deduction and they're concerned about where that is going to go and whether they're going to have less resources you know in their business so there are those type of policy uncertainties and issues that we're hearing much more um and Elizabeth I want to pick up on one thing that Karen said and that's about cost of.

Capital I'm curious to get your take on you know we spend all day long talking about big public companies and their accessibility you know how they get capital and what's happening with interest rates what are we seeing on the small business side on that front capital is very expensive right now and the irony is those two are very.

Connected so interestingly I talk to Banks every day and I push them really hard to think of creative ways to get capital in the hands of small business owners in a cheaper way again with five times the amount launching right now to me that's a great Market I think larger fintechs are catching up if you look at what square and NerdWallet and others.

Are doing to get capital in the hands of small businesses I think they're being more Innovative than the banks however if it's expensive for banks it's expensive for small business owners so we really have to watch that and think about it Elizabeth Karen thank you both so much for joining the show today we appreciate apprciate it than.

You coming up why change could be bad for business and employees alike we'll discuss that on the other side.

sh companies laying off workers across Industries vacation rental company vacasa cutting 800 jobs just yesterday this off the heels of pelaton remember.

Cutting 400 jobs earlier this month and test Tesla slashing jobs both in the US and China and joining us now is the author of the new book the problem with change Ashley Goodall Ashley good to have you good to be here so you actually just wrote about this issue is an oped for the New York Times Ashley I think you were kind of specifically focused on.

Layoffs in Silicon Valley and I think you called it the unnecessary layoff what did you mean that by that Ashley well simply that the companies are generally profitable who are making these layoffs and I think lots of us look at that when we layoffs and go oh they probably had very little Choice they're probably like struggling to stay.

In business but actually um if you look at the wave of layoffs since the beginning of 2023 particularly in the valley you find out that the companies doing the layoffs are pretty profitable and indeed have turned around and subsequently hired people after that and so you have to ask yourself really what's going on are they are they.

Actually do you think part of what's going on there though is it's this shift in AI I me we're told it's going to be historic you know internet mobile now ai and and some exec and silicon Val just saying listen because of that I've got to emphasize some areas soft pedal others I think what it is more profoundly is that we're addicted to.

Change in organizations and that we sort of have been leaders have been brought up to think that if things aren't going the way I want them to go what I have to do is to change things and change things and change things and change things and change things and what I'm talking about is how that makes it actually harder for.

People to do their jobs and how it makes them hard makes it harder for them to help and do their best work and thereby thereby get things sort of in a heading in a better Direction um I like the way you put it in that in that oped you said the idea of disruption has also M metastasized into a sort of cult which is exactly kind of what you're.

Describing now I think of you know obviously meta has done a lot of cuts the other big tech companies but we mentioned Tesla coming into this and I think of Elon Musk most particularly with this kind of thing both what he did at Twitter now X and now what he seems to be doing at his own at his main job Tesla um what do you think reverses that.

Do you know what I mean what I mean because for the publicly traded companies they tend to be rewarded when they do these things I think that's a big problem um if you look at the science of human performance which is arguably a kind of important thing to look at if you're leading a company that has humans in it and we're trying to.

Help them perform you find out that the the the foundation of a lot of great performance is stability which is not stasis is not standing still but having a reasonably predictable environment so we know how we can plug in and we know how we can uh interact with others and we know how we can collaborate and we know how we can innovate uh so I think.

You have to look at companies that are doing change after change after change after change and go how does that become a long-term value proposition for any anyone it's certainly very hard on the people on the front lines and leads to a lot of um the disqui I think we see in the workforce at the moment how much do you think Ashley comes down to a leader.

Comes in and he or she just thinks I listen I got the big office I got a big paycheck got to make changes I mean that's what's expected right I think there's a lot of that yeah um because we all think you know we think well I was sent here to do something right I was and I've got to therefore do I can't do nothing I've got to do something I was.

Sent here so what should I do well clearly I must change the all the things that I see it's a very rare leader a very rare leader who can come in and go you know what I'm going to focus on learning and I'm going to focus on understanding this place and understanding what makes it tick and understanding how the people here think.

About it if you approach leadership from the perspective of your job is to help other people do their jobs you might think like that but if you sort of feel coming in as oh my job is to solve everything and my job is to be the answer to everything then I think again you sort of tilt into disruption and change very quickly are there examples.

Of Executives that you think have done it right that have changed without that kind of upheaval I think uh where I used to work in Professional Services not public private the partners own the company and you have a CEO election every four years and then you stay the course and things tend to change much more slowly in those environments.

Certainly in in 14 years at deoe I saw a lot more deliberation about change and a lot more putting the people first because the partners knew that they needed the best people and the best people were hard to find and they wanted to again support them in doing their work well so I think the public private difference is something we could all.

Learn from interesting thanks Ashley appreciate it well that'll do it for today Yahoo finance live be sure to come back Monday 3 p.m. Eastern for all of your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell have a good weekend.

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