Warren Buffett is now ‘as bearish as he ever gets,’ says Invoice Smead

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Warren Buffett is now 'as bearish as he ever gets,' says Invoice Smead


I want to begin by asking you how did Mr Buffett strike you it was a weekend of some um sentimentality maybe some Melancholy as Charlie Munger his longtime uh compatriot was uh remembered how did Mr Buffett strike you well uh he has been such a generous uh and uh brilliant and wise man uh in my life that that there's.

Hardly anything he can do that that uh that that disappoints me he's 93 years old he just had his closest friend and his closest business Confidant uh pass and he's feeling the effects of that and Charlie they they started the meeting out with a bunch of Charlie uh witticisms of the past years and uh uh it it you couldn't help but be emotional.

About it it it's really the end of an era it was it was clear in some of the ort of subtext that Greg Abel uh is uh assuming a more important role internally he's the the designated successor did you feel that way MH oh yeah he he will be the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway uh the primary uh asset allocator uh among buying whole.

Companies versus putting more toward stocks Etc which was kind of a surprise to us we uh we we thought the last 10 years or so uh would be a process of turning more of the Reigns in company selection to uh uh Todd Colmes and Ted westler and that explains why they haven't been given a more prominent position at the annual meeting we.

Wondered about that the last three or four years and we got that question answered for us but but it will be a different company It's a Wonderful large conglomerate that is closely tied to the United States economy and if you want a wonderful company closely tied to the United States economy it would be a good investment for you the next 10 years and.

Of course we should not even suggest that Mr Buffett is anywhere close to finished yet he is a an amazing uh leader amazing stamina and and of course is still fully in charge so let's talk about their big cash pile1 180 some billion dollar heading to $200 billion what should they do with it there is some disc would you as a shareholder.

Like to see them pay a dividend or or would you like to see them make a big acquisition or would you like to see them buy back shares we have no interest in the dividend uh it's fine to have them buy back shares but you you always have to think about Burkshire hathway do as I do not as I say because Warren Buffett is a.

Super nice guy and he is absolutely no interest in offending people but if you look at what he's doing he is as bearish as he ever gets I read right between the lines right from the beginning at the meeting on Saturday I was there sitting in the audience and I thought okay huge cash position trimmed his Apple position uh uh it it isn't is he's he's nibbling.

On something below the surface they haven't announced yet but basically he is waiting until the next 40% decline in the stock market to apply massive amounts of capital at bargain prices in things that are large enough to be meaningful to this company at the size it is now so so you just used the phrase this is as bearish I believe you said as.

I have ever seen him should is is that really the right characterization or is it rather that he thinks the market is too highly priced uh for him to go in in a big way and put fresh Capital to work in other words is it so much a bearish call as it is a a rejection of the idea that this is an opportunistic time to.

Invest Tyler you have asked a great question so I'm going to answer this in kind of an odd way in 1969 he pivoted from being primarily a quantitative Ben Graham value guy to being more of a Charlie Munger qualitative guy right get a reasonable price on a great company and he said back in in 67 6869 that the the quantitative ideas that he used to.

Like to buy were combed and recomed that was his letter to Partners and and this year this last year he he he said that that the kind of things that we would like to do have been endlessly picked over so that that is code for we think the Market's expensive we're not in any hurry we're going to wait and and remember he's talked constantly for 10.

To 15 years that the bigger Brookshire gets the more it limits their opportunities right so really to to to have very large opportunities for large deployments of that $200 billion you've got to have the entire Market get into very difficult circumstances

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